Bournemouth v Luton Scott and Semenyo start, worth a listen?

[Mr Popodopolous]

57 minutes ago, Robbored said:

City have always been a selling club. In recent years Reid, Bryan, Pack, Kelly, Scott, Semenyo have all moved on and unfortunately few of them have been replaced. The one miss most is Semenyo who would be virtually unplayable in the Championship - but point crying over spilt milk as the saying goes.

That is the Championship not just City although never being in benefit of Parachutes and nearly running aground with FFP we've been hsfrt hit than a fair few but a lot of Championship clubs seem to have to sell and trade yes.

What I hope in the future and a process that begun with NP and Gould is that the sale profits will represent a bonus not a necessity. ie as far as possible on our terms and an ability to reinvest as much as possible.

Edited March 13 by Mr Popodopolous

[luke_bristol]

Delighted to see Scott and Semenyo thriving in the Premier League

‪I’m gonna grab a ST so we can sell Conway to Burnley and a club that get less than half our attendances can fire themselves back into the Prem next season, would love to see Tommy doing it in the Prem.

[Mr Popodopolous]

24 minutes ago, luke_bristol said:

Delighted to see Scott and Semenyo thriving in the Premier League

‪I’m gonna grab a ST so we can sell Conway to Burnley and a club that get less than half our attendances can fire themselves back into the Prem next season, would love to see Tommy doing it in the Prem.

Let's see..

1) Even with the attendances and other revenue gaps, the PL cash and or Parachute Payments make it an absolute chasm. Even Luton assuming most similar or slightly uplifted revenue streams to 2022-23 plus Parachute vs Solidarity could easily be £20-25m ahead next season.

2) Burnley averaged 19k last they were at this level. A bit lower sure. Is hard to gauge because of so much recent PL or top end Parachute stuff what they may average in a season where they aren't flourishing, bigger club than Bournemouth anyway.

3) We need not sell from an FFP angle.

*Challenge to bridge the gap to top 2 for sure..hit on a perfect storm Idk.

Rather depressing isn't it, but we really shouldn't be selling out best (IMO) after 1.5-2 years of fixing the finances and we really shouldn't have sacked NP and his team. However if we sell Conway all the money must go back into the side IMO.

Edited March 14 by Mr Popodopolous

[Calculus]

43 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Let's see..

1) Even with the attendances and other revenue gaps, the PL cash and or Parachute Payments make it an absolute chasm. Even Luton assuming most similar or slightly uplifted revenue streams to 2022-23 plus Parachute vs Solidarity could easily be £20-25m ahead next season.

2) Burnley averaged 19k last they were at this level. A bit lower sure. Is hard to gauge because of so much recent PL or top end Parachute stuff what they may average in a season where they aren't flourishing, bigger club than Bournemouth anyway.

3) We need not sell from an FFP angle.

*Challenge to bridge the gap to top 2 for sure..hit on a perfect storm Idk.

Rather depressing isn't it, but we really shouldn't be selling out best (IMO) after 1.5-2 years of fixing the finances and we really shouldn't have sacked NP and his team. However if we sell Conway all the money must go back into the side IMO.

All true, of course, but the point is that the players wanted to go, as does Conway reportedly.

Also, despite all the player sales we still make a substantial loss every year, FFP angle or not. Is it therefore reasonable to demand that all proceeds from a player sale have to be spent? 

BTW, £10m for Semenyo doesn't look like a great deal for us now does it?

[1960maaan]

3 hours ago, Calculus said:

BTW, £10m for Semenyo doesn't look like a great deal for us now does it?

With the player wanting to go, his Contract winding down and FFP looking close ?
It was as good as we were going to get. I seem to remember some on here saying we would struggle to get £5m . 
I'm hoping Palace or West Ham have a good run and buy him for loads in the summer. 

[TDarwall]

Power & pace are huge assets. Its hard to know where Antionne's ceiling is, but i thinks its realistic that he could do better than the likes of West Ham, Palace etc.

i

[Robbored]

15 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

Power & pace are huge assets. Its hard to know where Antionne's ceiling is, but i thinks its realistic that he could do better than the likes of West Ham, Palace etc.

Semenyo is not the finished article yet - he’s only recently become a regular starter at B’mouth. The brace he scored last night wouldn’t have gone unnoticed and if he can carry on terrorising defences and scoring regularly one of the top PL clubs may well be taking a serious look at him.

Personally I’d like to see him at Liverpool or Arsenal

[archie andrews]

Knowing us we aint got a sell on clause... 

[Northern Red]

41 minutes ago, archie andrews said:

Knowing us we aint got a sell on clause... 

We do it as standard.

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, TDarwall said:

Power & pace are huge assets. Its hard to know where Antionne's ceiling is, but i thinks its realistic that he could do better than the likes of West Ham, Palace etc.

i

To go much higher, he will have to add touch , subtlety and a more clinical edge . That's not to say he can't, but I think he's a way off it yet.  

As of this moment, and it's just my opinion , Palace and West Ham are a good fit.  Wolves might fit too , maybe Newcastle depending how they go .

It will be interesting to see where all 3 of our "ex's" at Bournemouth go. 
Kelly linked with a big free in the summer and Scott I think will go somewhere , but maybe the following summer. Unless there is something in the Spurs links and they want to go early before he costs loads more. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 hours ago, Calculus said:

All true, of course, but the point is that the players wanted to go, as does Conway reportedly.

Also, despite all the player sales we still make a substantial loss every year, FFP angle or not. Is it therefore reasonable to demand that all proceeds from a player sale have to be spent? 

BTW, £10m for Semenyo doesn't look like a great deal for us now does it?

Fair points but sometimes you just have to do your time (summer 2021 to late Jan 2033) then look to build and put some icing on the cake.

These are fair points but the market moves and moves swiftly. Ambitious owners abound- I think the current structure is a terrible mistake, sacking NP even more so.

What are we trying to achieve, offset against what is feasible and realistic. Football is a badly loss making entity, to what extent can we swim against the tide at this level.

Edited March 14 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Fair points but sometimes you just have to do your time (summer 2021 to late Jan 2033) then look to build and put some icing on the cake.

These are fair points but the market moves and moves swiftly. Ambitious owners abound- I think the current structure is a terrible mistake, sacking NP even more so.

What are we trying to achieve, offset against what is feasible and realistic. Football is a badly loss making entity, to what extent can we swim against the tide at this level.

What do you reckon?

If we look at a 12 month period (last year was 13, so ignore the extras), operationally we probably are gonna be running at £18m(ish) loss each year.  That’s no trading / squad investment, just the base.

If SL wants to cut back his annual “stump-up” to say £10m, that’s £8m we have to find each year in player sales before we trade!.

As such he’s covered this year and next year with Scott’s money and also allowed a bit of investment in the squad this season.

So we ought to see a similar level of squad building this summer.

The question becomes what does he do with money we get from Conway for example?  Does he apportion over 4 windows / 2 seasons like Scott, or give all of it to LM?  I suspect he’d want to stagger the usage to allow for fallow years of players sales?

Make sense?

[Super]

5 hours ago, Robbored said:

Semenyo is not the finished article yet - he’s only recently become a regular starter at B’mouth. The brace he scored last night wouldn’t have gone unnoticed and if he can carry on terrorising defences and scoring regularly one of the top PL clubs may well be taking a serious look at him.

Personally I’d like to see him at Liverpool or Arsenal

I'd be amazed if he played for any of the top teams. A West Ham Brighton or a Wolves is far more likely.

[George Rs]

10 minutes ago, Super said:

I'd be amazed if he played for any of the top teams. A West Ham Brighton or a Wolves is far more likely.

It’s hard to put value on natural assets though. Antoines pace and power is rare to find, especially with the technical ability alongside it. He definitely needs to add more chance creation to his game, is a bit of a cut in and shoot merchant at times. 

But that can all be worked on, the best example of someone who has his natural traits and the technicals he needs is Rafael Leao. Thought of as one of the best wingers in europe. 

Not saying he will get to that level but i don’t see a reason why Antoine can’t be playing for a top 6 side in a few years time. With the speed of attacking play I think he would be a shoe in at spurs personally. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

 

On 14/03/2024 at 13:16, Davefevs said:

What do you reckon?

If we look at a 12 month period (last year was 13, so ignore the extras), operationally we probably are gonna be running at £18m(ish) loss each year.  That’s no trading / squad investment, just the base.

If SL wants to cut back his annual “stump-up” to say £10m, that’s £8m we have to find each year in player sales before we trade!.

As such he’s covered this year and next year with Scott’s money and also allowed a bit of investment in the squad this season.

So we ought to see a similar level of squad building this summer.

The question becomes what does he do with money we get from Conway for example?  Does he apportion over 4 windows / 2 seasons like Scott, or give all of it to LM?  I suspect he’d want to stagger the usage to allow for fallow years of players sales?

Make sense?

Yeah tend to agree. My base estimates was £20m on Football Wages and £2-3m on Amortisation.

Swiss Ramble had a basic calculation of £5.3m in extra costs for the 13th month iirc.

Are we including the rise in TV in the £18m suggested Operational loss or is that before?

I see albeit the Cash Losses vs the Profit (Loss) Before Tax.

It's a tough balancing act isn't it. Half of Conway fee reinvested this year, half next kinda thing?

Depends on which system we'll be under too, whether P&S or the 70% plus Profit rule..so many movable parts.

From a purely P&S perspective assuming SL was happy to fund it, I reckon £15-20m Headroom before any Player Sale Profits.

The Scott and Semenyo instalments how they fall will he interesting. If we are trying to run more self-sufficent under this system, well it's a laudable aim but feels like we may go backwards.

Edited March 15 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

57 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

 

Yeah tend to agree. My base estimates was £20m on Football Wages and £2-3m on Amortisation.

Swiss Ramble had a basic calculation of £5.3m in extra costs for the 13th month iirc.

Are we including the rise in TV in the £18m suggested Operational loss or is that before?

I see albeit the Cash Losses vs the Profit (Loss) Before Tax.

It's a tough balancing act isn't it. Half of Conway fee reinvested this year, half next kinda thing?

Depends on which system we'll be under too, whether P&S or the 70% plus Profit rule..so many movable parts.

From a purely P&S perspective assuming SL was happy to fund it, I reckon £15-20m Headroom before any Player Sale Profits.

The Scott and Semenyo instalments how they fall will he interesting. If we are trying to run more self-sufficent under this system, well it's a laudable aim but feels like we may go backwards.

 

Yep, lots of unknowns.  I think we will be ok on the 70% if based on UEFA guidelines.