Mathematical Certainty

[ExiledAjax]

I believe that this next game against Blackburn presents us with the first opportunity to confirm, mathematically, a 10th consecutive season of second tier football.

So far as the drop is concerned we're 12 clear of Birmingham on 22nd, and 11 clear of Huddersfield in 23rd, with 15 points left. Even if we lose on Wednesday we'll likely remain at least 12 clear of the team then in 22nd.

So much for the hyperbolic fears of some regarding relegation a few weeks back.

As for the legendary top 6 finish - again we're currently 13 behind Norwich in 6th so if we win and they lose, we're confirmed as being in the Championship next season. If we draw and Norwich lose then technically we could still make it, but come on. Be serious.

It's possible that due to teams playing each other (for example PNE and Norwich, and Huddersfield and Birmingham) we're actually already technically confirmed to be out of either race, but I've not checked that in detail. Wednesday night is when we could properly confirm it.

What a tame ride it's been. Not once finishing a round of games higher than 7th nor lower than 15th. Since Millwall on 1 Jan we've shifted between 11th and 14th. For all the brouhaha through the season, it's been the mid-table cruise that it was always most likely to be.

Here's to 2024/25 and hopefully something a little more exciting.

Edited April 8 by ExiledAjax

[Davefevs]

I said 50 points would be enough and that was erring on the cautious side. I suspect that may even be 3+ points outside.

[pillred]

We are 12 points clear of Birmingham, not 14 (not that that is going to make much difference).

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

I said 50 points would be enough and that was erring on the cautious side. I suspect that may even be 3+ points outside.

Think the highest I ever went was 48. 

It's still looking like the team in 22nd will have a higher than normal total, maybe 47 or 48 even, but we will be well clear of that by the end of the Stoke game.

For me my attention turns to whether or not we can do something odd. Personally I'd like us to try and hit some sort of nice symmetry, ideally I think that from here we should look for W17 D12 L17 F50 A50 for a GD of 0. It's a shame that hits 63 points as it would be nice to have some sort of round number, but I can't have everything can I.

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, pillred said:

We are 12 points clear of Birmingham, not 14 (not that that is going to make much difference).

Thanks yes we are. Makes it a fraction less likely that it's all tied up by Thursday then, although I guess we just have to match or better Brum's result.

[jj77]

Can't wait for the commemorative shirt

[MarcusX]

I cant see us getting 13 more points, let alone making up a 13 point difference on 6th - although I know you weren't seriously suggesting it was possible.

Realistically we were never in danger of relegation, though I could understand why some people were concerned about where we might pick up points - it's just there's too many teams below us to make up the difference anyway. If you took away the 6 points against Plymouth and Leicester we'd still be 14th.

Personally, would have taken mid table at the start of the season, think we all agree it's the nature of what's happened this season that's bothered everyone - and the messaging from the people in charge.

Lets see what Liam can do over the summer with plenty of time "on the grass" and and interesting transfer window

[downendcity]

So it's a mathematical certainty that the Pearson v Manning debate will continue into next season!  

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

29 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Thanks yes we are. Makes it a fraction less likely that it's all tied up by Thursday then, although I guess we just have to match or better Brum's result.

Huddersfield and Birmingham still have to play each other.

Basically to be mathematically safe tomorrow we need to win. A draw would be pretty much guaranteed safety as long as Weds lose at home to Norwich as Huddersfield and Birmingham would have to draw their game and win all their remaining games whilst turning around a huge goal difference.

In reality we’re already safe. Without Reading’s points deduction last season QPR would’ve gone down on 49 points and I can’t see that total being needed this season. 
 

[Mendip City]

55 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I believe that this next game against Blackburn presents us with the first opportunity to confirm, mathematically, a 10th consecutive season of second tier football.

So far as the drop is concerned we're 12 clear of Birmingham on 22nd, and 11 clear of Huddersfield in 23rd, with 15 points left. Even if we lose on Wednesday we'll likely remain at least 12 clear of the team then in 22nd.

So much for the hyperbolic fears of some regarding relegation a few weeks back.

As for the legendary top 6 finish - again we're currently 13 behind Norwich in 6th so if we win and they lose, we're confirmed as being in the Championship next season. If we draw and Norwich lose then technically we could still make it, but come on. Be serious.

It's possible that due to teams playing each other (for example PNE and Norwich, and Huddersfield and Birmingham) we're actually already technically confirmed to be out of either race, but I've not checked that in detail. Wednesday night is when we could properly confirm it.

What a tame ride it's been. Not once finishing a round of games higher than 7th nor lower than 15th. Since Millwall on 1 Jan we've shifted between 11th and 14th. For all the brouhaha through the season, it's been the mid-table cruise that it was always most likely to be.

Here's to 2024/25 and hopefully something a little more exciting.

That’s an interesting table and that 7-15 is us all over and the graph would have very few spikes if you expanded it over our 9 seasons at this level.  I don’t see much likelihood of change next year… so the frustration (boredom?) will carry on! But you never know and we live in hope! 

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

5 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

Realistically we were never in danger of relegation, though I could understand why some people were concerned about where we might pick up points - it's just there's too many teams below us to make up the difference anyway.

I would say that being only 6 points above the drop zone with 11 games to play on the back of 3 abysmal performances (with Ipswich, WBA and Leicester on the horizon) we were absolutely in danger of being sucked in.

The number of teams below you doesn't make much of a difference with that many games to play as most of the teams below were only 3 or 4 points worse off. Hull fans will know all about this.

Credit to Manning and the team that we’ve got to this point with a month left but it’s felt like a slog. 

 

[steveybadger]

Always good to get this one out

 

 

[sglosbcfc]

"So much for the hyperbolic fears of some regarding relegation a few weeks back."

 

It is easy to be wise after the event, but did many fans honestly expect us to pick up 7 points out of 9 in the past three games? I certainly didn't, if we had only picked up 0 or even 1 or 2 points from those games, we would still need to look over our shoulder.

[slartibartfast]

1 hour ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

Huddersfield and Birmingham still have to play each other.

Basically to be mathematically safe tomorrow we need to win. A draw would be pretty much guaranteed safety as long as Weds lose at home to Norwich as Huddersfield and Birmingham would have to draw their game and win all their remaining games whilst turning around a huge goal difference.

In reality we’re already safe. Without Reading’s points deduction last season QPR would’ve gone down on 49 points and I can’t see that total being needed this season. 
 

Of course....we could get a points deduction for fouling FFP !

[cidercity1987]

6 minutes ago, sglosbcfc said:

"So much for the hyperbolic fears of some regarding relegation a few weeks back."

 

It is easy to be wise after the event, but did many fans honestly expect us to pick up 7 points out of 9 in the past three games? I certainly didn't, if we had only picked up 0 or even 1 or 2 points from those games, we would still need to look over our shoulder.

I totally agree.

We've picked up 10 from 5. 

If we'd continued the form of the previous 5 we would have 3 points , 47 points to lie only 5 points above relegation.

Well done to the management and the team for turning the form around but relegation fears 5 games ago were not 'hyperbolic' 

 

[MarcusX]

1 hour ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

I would say that being only 6 points above the drop zone with 11 games to play on the back of 3 abysmal performances (with Ipswich, WBA and Leicester on the horizon) we were absolutely in danger of being sucked in.

The number of teams below you doesn't make much of a difference with that many games to play as most of the teams below were only 3 or 4 points worse off. Hull fans will know all about this.

Credit to Manning and the team that we’ve got to this point with a month left but it’s felt like a slog. 

 

Theoretical danger maybe, we were never going to lose every remaining game - even Rotherham haven't done that.

Only 3 teams were less than 4 points off us, "most" were 6 points or more away. Many have played each other.

 

[phantom]

1 hour ago, jj77 said:

Can't wait for the commemorative shirt

and all the Tinnion descendants being on the pitch to celebrate

1 hour ago, downendcity said:

So it's a mathematical certainty that the Pearson v Manning debate will continue into next season!  

That will be a certainty for some

28 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

I totally agree.

We've picked up 10 from 5. 

If we'd continued the form of the previous 5 we would have 3 points , 47 points to lie only 5 points above relegation.

Well done to the management and the team for turning the form around but relegation fears 5 games ago were not 'hyperbolic' 

 

I get your point, and do agree, but the thing often missed is those behind us had to up their game over a longer period of time, and that is never going to happen

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

Huddersfield and Birmingham still have to play each other.

Basically to be mathematically safe tomorrow we need to win. A draw would be pretty much guaranteed safety as long as Weds lose at home to Norwich as Huddersfield and Birmingham would have to draw their game and win all their remaining games whilst turning around a huge goal difference.

In reality we’re already safe. Without Reading’s points deduction last season QPR would’ve gone down on 49 points and I can’t see that total being needed this season. 
 

I suspected there was some finesse in the future due to teams playing each other. Thanks for explaining it.

[And Its Smith]

People were panicking when we were 150/1 to go down. Wonder how many wasted their money.   

[MarcusX]

32 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

I totally agree.

We've picked up 10 from 5. 

If we'd continued the form of the previous 5 we would have 3 points , 47 points to lie only 5 points above relegation.

Well done to the management and the team for turning the form around but relegation fears 5 games ago were not 'hyperbolic' 

 

The alternative take on that is that over 6 games we'd have only drifted 1 point closer to relegation.

We were a long way from a relegation battle. What's annoying is we should have beat QPR and Sheff Wed (on paper) and probably not Leicester in which case we'd have had the points earlier and definitely wouldn't have been a discussion

[ExiledAjax]

42 minutes ago, sglosbcfc said:

"So much for the hyperbolic fears of some regarding relegation a few weeks back."

 

It is easy to be wise after the event, but did many fans honestly expect us to pick up 7 points out of 9 in the past three games? I certainly didn't, if we had only picked up 0 or even 1 or 2 points from those games, we would still need to look over our shoulder.

I'm not being wise after the event. If you're bothered or bored you can check my posts.

[Chivs]

1 hour ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

Huddersfield and Birmingham still have to play each other.

Basically to be mathematically safe tomorrow we need to win. A draw would be pretty much guaranteed safety as long as Weds lose at home to Norwich as Huddersfield and Birmingham would have to draw their game and win all their remaining games whilst turning around a huge goal difference.

In reality we’re already safe. Without Reading’s points deduction last season QPR would’ve gone down on 49 points and I can’t see that total being needed this season. 
 

If we win tomorrow, it will be nothing short of a miracle.

[Gert Mare]

Liam if we win tomorrow...

[sugarwray]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

I believe that this next game against Blackburn presents us with the first opportunity to confirm, mathematically, a 10th consecutive season of second tier football.

So far as the drop is concerned we're 12 clear of Birmingham on 22nd, and 11 clear of Huddersfield in 23rd, with 15 points left. Even if we lose on Wednesday we'll likely remain at least 12 clear of the team then in 22nd.

So much for the hyperbolic fears of some regarding relegation a few weeks back.

As for the legendary top 6 finish - again we're currently 13 behind Norwich in 6th so if we win and they lose, we're confirmed as being in the Championship next season. If we draw and Norwich lose then technically we could still make it, but come on. Be serious.

It's possible that due to teams playing each other (for example PNE and Norwich, and Huddersfield and Birmingham) we're actually already technically confirmed to be out of either race, but I've not checked that in detail. Wednesday night is when we could properly confirm it.

What a tame ride it's been. Not once finishing a round of games higher than 7th nor lower than 15th. Since Millwall on 1 Jan we've shifted between 11th and 14th. For all the brouhaha through the season, it's been the mid-table cruise that it was always most likely to be.

Here's to 2024/25 and hopefully something a little more exciting.

A very good graphic. It tells it like it is.

Do you have the same one for Ajax?  Sixth place; our dream, their nightmare 

[Capman]

So the question for the manager should swiftly be moving to, how do I use the remaining games to make sure I am as ready as possible for the first game of the 2024/25 season? Should I be giving youngsters who I may need next season some game time, should I be playing loan players, unless they will become permanent, should I be playing players who will not be with us next season. It should be a good position for any manager to have, it will be interesting to see how (or if) the City establishment takes advantage of it. 

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, Capman said:

So the question for the manager should swiftly be moving to, how do I use the remaining games to make sure I am as ready as possible for the first game of the 2024/25 season? Should I be giving youngsters who I may need next season some game time, should I be playing loan players, unless they will become permanent, should I be playing players who will not be with us next season. It should be a good position for any manager to have, it will be interesting to see how (or if) the City establishment takes advantage of it. 

I think the MO will be get results!

[ExiledAjax]

8 minutes ago, Capman said:

So the question for the manager should swiftly be moving to, how do I use the remaining games to make sure I am as ready as possible for the first game of the 2024/25 season? Should I be giving youngsters who I may need next season some game time, should I be playing loan players, unless they will become permanent, should I be playing players who will not be with us next season. It should be a good position for any manager to have, it will be interesting to see how (or if) the City establishment takes advantage of it. 

As I said, he should look to achieve a record of W17 D12 L17 F50 A50 for a GD of 0. Getting such a satisfyingly round and even final season record will give everyone in the squad and at the HPC the warm glow of contentedness necessary to depart for their holidays in a state of zen. They will be able to rest up and recharge and go into pre-season fully prepared for an assault on 7th place in 2024/25.

Prospective new signings will also be impressed with this record, and will see that we are a club with very precise ambitions, and we're capable of delivering them.

[1960maaan]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

I think the MO will be get results!

I think you're right, but only because I believe the Coach is feeling a bit of pressure. 
Just my opinion of course.  I think , if he was totally confident in his job and the future , he may well try to look at the likes of Knight-Lebel and even give Mebude a 90. 
Trouble is it hasn't been great, we have stumbled to results and there have been grumbles from the Fanbase . Seems like he is desperate for wins to aid confidence , in the Squad and fans. 

I would rather JNL had some minutes this year with no real pressure, than have to be thrown in to (depending how your glass looks) Promotion/relegation battle. 
Same with Mebude , you can watch him in training , but what if he's one that shines in competitive games ? We brought him in to look at, may as well do that. 

Now what I think we will do is play our best available team until the end. Maybe at 5-0 up Vs Blackburn and Huddersfield think about giving someone a run. On 60+ minutes of course.

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

56 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

People were panicking when we were 150/1 to go down. Wonder how many wasted their money.   

Within a week our odds had dropped to 40/1.

Had we lost at home against Swansea we would’ve seen those odds slashed again. 
Odds can change drastically very quickly so being 150/1 with 10 games to go means very little.

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, sglosbcfc said:

"So much for the hyperbolic fears of some regarding relegation a few weeks back."

 

It is easy to be wise after the event, but did many fans honestly expect us to pick up 7 points out of 9 in the past three games? I certainly didn't, if we had only picked up 0 or even 1 or 2 points from those games, we would still need to look over our shoulder.

No.

However the scenario being portrayed on here by some was we might not get another point with around 10 games to go, which was frankly ridiculous.

We were never seriously in the relegation picture, no matter how much some said we were.

Saying what might have happened if something we now know didn’t happen had taken place, is really the definition of pointless.