Mathematical Certainty

[Davefevs]

50 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think the MO will be get results!

And here we have it:

 

[Capman]

47 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think the MO will be get results!

Probably and if I am honest I don’t know enough to say if that is right or wrong. The point here though is that the club says it wants premier league football. That should be first, second and third priority. In relation to delivering that objective these matches mean nothing and need to be used to plan the route to deliver promotion in 2025. If winning games and building confidence is the clubs view of how to deliver that then that is what they should aim to do. But actually I might judge the success of these games at the end of September. If we are playing well with a joined up team then we have used the time well. If we look like the players have never seen each other before I will be questioning our processes. 

[sh1t_ref_again]

1 hour ago, Gert Mare said:

Liam if we win tomorrow...

I will absolutely stunned if we win or lose tomorrow

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, Capman said:

Probably and if I am honest I don’t know enough to say if that is right or wrong. The point here though is that the club says it wants premier league football. That should be first, second and third priority. In relation to delivering that objective these matches mean nothing and need to be used to plan the route to deliver promotion in 2025. If winning games and building confidence is the clubs view of how to deliver that then that is what they should aim to do. But actually I might judge the success of these games at the end of September. If we are playing well with a joined up team then we have used the time well. If we look like the players have never seen each other before I will be questioning our processes. 

Without harping back to either this thread or another, results typically come from the underlying performances.  That’s not me saying that, it’s LM’s words.  And performance can come in different ways and be good or bad or somewhere in between.  You’d like to get a feel for what a LM team / performance looks like over these next 5.  And I think, results and opposition asude I think we’d all prefer performance to look more like Leicester than Sunderland per se.

I had hoped that Leicester was a bit of a watershed, two week break, rejuvenated, different intent, blah, blah, blah.  But come Sunderland that was proof (for me) that it wasn’t, it was just one of a number of different mixtures of performance.

So, I’ve no expectations on the last 5 games.  I’m not convinced it will tell me much I don’t already know, and that of course is gonna be largely irrelevant going into next season with some ins and outs to alter the dynamic.

[Robbored]

25 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

However the scenario being portrayed on here by some was we might not get another point with around 10 games to go, which was frankly ridiculous.

We were never seriously in the relegation picture, no matter how much some said we were.

Saying what might have happened if something we now know didn’t happen had taken place, is really the definition of pointless.

In recent history in the Championship the points needed to avoid the drop is 48/50 and City as you say were never in danger of slipping into the danger zone but some fans panic if they see City nearer the bottom three to the top six and lose all perspective……..fickle fans and all that……..……

25 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

However the scenario being portrayed on here by some was we might not get another point with around 10 games to go, which was frankly ridiculous.

We were never seriously in the relegation picture, no matter how much some said we were.

Saying what might have happened if something we now know didn’t happen had taken place, is really the definition of pointless.

In recent history in the Championship the points needed to avoid the drop is 48/50 and City as you say were never in danger of slipping into the danger zone but some fans panic if they see City nearer the bottom three to the top six and lose all perspective……..fickle fans and all that……..……

[phantom]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

I think you're right, but only because I believe the Coach is feeling a bit of pressure. 
Just my opinion of course.  I think , if he was totally confident in his job and the future , he may well try to look at the likes of Knight-Lebel and even give Mebude a 90. 
Trouble is it hasn't been great, we have stumbled to results and there have been grumbles from the Fanbase . Seems like he is desperate for wins to aid confidence , in the Squad and fans. 

I would rather JNL had some minutes this year with no real pressure, than have to be thrown in to (depending how your glass looks) Promotion/relegation battle. 
Same with Mebude , you can watch him in training , but what if he's one that shines in competitive games ? We brought him in to look at, may as well do that. 

Now what I think we will do is play our best available team until the end. Maybe at 5-0 up Vs Blackburn and Huddersfield think about giving someone a run. On 60+ minutes of course.

What pressure?

Apart from the handful of those that still hold a candle for Nige on OTIB, we all pretty much see the squad etc for what it is

They haven't been good enough all season, two different regimes have failed to get a tune out of them and they clearly need upgrading if we are to move forwards in league position terms

It has been said a couple of times that the current U23s aren't up to a level of previous years, hence the push on the current U18s. The simple answer is they are not seen to be good enough, I doubt many (if any) who are out of contract this summer will be kept on.

Personally I would prefer us to stick with those we know will be around next season, get some momentum and try anything new out, certainly no point giving anyone minutes just as a token gesture

[DaveInSA]

My brother was worried about relegation, but to me it wasn’t on the cards.

Manning isn’t going anywhere - so I’ve lessened my “Manning Out” crusade, because, I can’t control that (and never could to be fair).

So now I’ve resorted to prayer. Much more productive and real. And I’m praying:

• that Manning becomes adaptable,
• that he gets the players he needs,
• and we can have some excitement at AG for the first time since W-S M were tearing opposition defences new a$$holes

 

[ExiledAjax]

1.  

35 minutes ago, Robbored said:

In recent history in the Championship the points needed to avoid the drop is 48/50

The average required over the past decade or so is closer to 45. But that's an average so probably only keeps you up 50% of the time.

These are the last fifteen totals for the team finishing 22nd. To stay up, you'd have needed one more point (or the same but better GD). In only three of these fifteen would you have required 48 - 50 points to stay up (five if you add back points deductions - see asterisks below), plus the absolute freak of a season in 2012/13.

1. 22/23: Reading 44* 
2. 21/22: Peterborough 37 
3. 20/21: Wycombe 43** 
4. 19/20: Charlton 48*** 
5. 18/19: Rotherham 40 
6. 17/18: Barnsley 41 
7. 16/17: Blackburn 51 
8. 15/16: Charlton 40 
9. 14/15: Millwall 41 
10. 13/14: Doncaster 44 
11. 12/13: Peterbrough 54
12. 11/12: Portsmouth 40
13. 10/11: Preston 42
14. 09/10: Sheff Wed 47
15. 08/09: Norwich 46

A general rule though is that 1 point per game (46 in the Championship) keeps you safe in about 75% of seasons. That rule holds across most divisions both in this country and abroad. It holds over the past decade or so Championship results as well, even with deductions added back on.

*Reading deducted 6 points. Had they not been then Cardiff would have gone down with 49.

**Sheff Wed deducted 6. Had they not it would have been Derby with 44.

***Wigan deducted 12. Had they not it would have been Barnsley in 22nd with 49.

Edited April 8 by ExiledAjax

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

2 hours ago, MarcusX said:

Theoretical danger maybe, we were never going to lose every remaining game - even Rotherham haven't done that.

Only 3 teams were less than 4 points off us, "most" were 6 points or more away. Many have played each other.

 

Of course, and I certainly didn’t think we’d lose every game but when you consider just how poor we were against teams below and around us, and the reality that most teams above us ‘should’ be much harder to beat, I’m pleasantly surprised we are where we are now. 

I think normally most people wouldn’t have been too worried after the Cardiff match IF we weren’t so woeful in the previous games. We were in relegation form, fortunately we’ve snapped out of it and we’re all reasonably happy as a result.

Ignoring the improvement in performance at Ipswich that seems to happen often for us in front of Sky cameras (although still left with 0 points), the performances against Cardiff, QPR, Weds and even Swansea were not encouraging. As you say, it’s understandable that fans were getting a bit worried.
 

[1960maaan]

3 minutes ago, phantom said:

What pressure?

Apart from the handful of those that still hold a candle for Nige on OTIB, we all pretty much see the squad etc for what it is

They haven't been good enough all season, two different regimes have failed to get a tune out of them and they clearly need upgrading if we are to move forwards in league position terms

It has been said a couple of times that the current U23s aren't up to a level of previous years, hence the push on the current U18s. The simple answer is they are not seen to be good enough, I doubt many (if any) who are out of contract this summer will be kept on.

Personally I would prefer us to stick with those we know will be around next season, get some momentum and try anything new out, certainly no point giving anyone minutes just as a token gesture

Seriously , You don't think he felt pressure ?

After we won the Cup/League/Grand National etc against South*mpton , we lost to QPR , Sheff W , Cardiff and Ipswich . If we didn't beat Swansea ,we would be going into a game no one thought we would win Vs Leicester , sat 5 points off the relegation zone . 
Add the boos and unrest he must have heard from the stands , and let's not forget that this squad has the ability to overachieve according to Jon L .
He will have 100% felt pressure , even when winning we have hardly been a delight to watch . 

As for minutes, giving JKL a run is hardly a token gesture . Not seeing he's been on the bench for a while and I thought he looked promising in his cameo 20 mins at Cardiff. The other one Mebude , he's on loan so why not have a proper look with no real jeopardy ? 
I agree about sticking mainly to players who will be here next year. I wouldn't be playing Twine at the expense of others , I don't see us forking out the money, and to be honest I haven't seen anything to want me to spend the money.  The other main problem is our injury list dictates the team we put out so I don't think we will be able to just play next years team .

[TDarwall]

45 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

 The other main problem is our injury list dictates the team we put out so I don't think we will be able to just play next years team .

Irrespective of the manager its hardly surprising that games where we've had a strong bench had yielded better results than those where we've had a bunch of kids sat there to make it look busy.  I don't think a bloated squad is helpful but super skinny isn't exactly working for us either as it only works of the core of the 1st team squad have fantastic availability.

I think Twine noted @Silvio Dante saying our best bet of signing him was an underwhelming loan!  When fit, he's been ok (& results are better with him in the team) but I don't think anyone would be betting the farm on him. Saying that, it's peak City that having got someone who can score a free kick we don't win any within range when he's on the pitch!

[Silvio Dante]

4 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

Irrespective of the manager its hardly surprising that games where we've had a strong bench had yielded better results than those where we've had a bunch of kids sat there to make it look busy.  I don't think a bloated squad is helpful but super skinny isn't exactly working for us either as it only works of the core of the 1st team squad have fantastic availability.

I think Twine noted @Silvio Dante saying our best bet of signing him was an underwhelming loan!  When fit, he's been ok (& results are better with him in the team) but I don't think anyone would be betting the farm on him. Saying that, it's peak City that having got someone who can score a free kick we don't win any within range when he's on the pitch!

I did - I could claim great foresight but I didn’t see a two month injury on the horizon! As above don’t think he’s been great (noting that may be fitness), but in terms of results as I said the other day correlation doesn’t equal causation and I’d pass on a permanent at the likely price.

[1960maaan]

12 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

Irrespective of the manager its hardly surprising that games where we've had a strong bench had yielded better results than those where we've had a bunch of kids sat there to make it look busy.  I don't think a bloated squad is helpful but super skinny isn't exactly working for us either as it only works of the core of the 1st team squad have fantastic availability.

We seem to have gone from extreme to extreme. Clubs in the bag under LJ , to not enough to fill a bench under ... well, everyone else.

[Superjack]

Never been concerned about relegation.

This season.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Silvio Dante said:

I did - I could claim great foresight but I didn’t see a two month injury on the horizon! As above don’t think he’s been great (noting that may be fitness), but in terms of results as I said the other day correlation doesn’t equal causation and I’d pass on a permanent at the likely price.

Yeah, had he been at the heart of things in the last 3 games, then you’d be recognising his influence…but he’s been mainly peripheral, and Saturday felt like he was playing within himself (generous).

We could of course be hitting that part of the season where players are thinking more about their futures than present.  Although that didn’t stop Williams hurtling around into players like a dodgem car!

[TDarwall]

1 hour ago, 1960maaan said:

We seem to have gone from extreme to extreme. Clubs in the bag under LJ , to not enough to fill a bench under ... well, everyone else.

An iron & a putter is sufficient....

[Superjack]

8 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

An iron & a putter is sufficient....

I thinks sand wedge and a pair of waders would be advantageous with the current ownership.

[Fuber]

7 hours ago, downendcity said:

So it's a mathematical certainty that the Pearson v Manning debate will continue into next season!  

Right so - to be honest.

Pretty heavy pressure on Manning (and the leadership) for us to improve upon this season considering the complete spiel they shat out after sacking NP.

We were barely positioned higher in the league after NPs staff's final game, (Fleming in charge at Sheff Wed - after a cataclysmic injury crisis) than we are now.

Up to Tinns to nail the summer window with regards to recruitment - as the last three have been pretty poor aside from Dickie, Roberts, and Knight.

Less said about January the better.

Edited April 8 by Fuber

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I think the MO will be get results!

Don't like it Dave. That's self fulfilling. 

For me it's all about performances now. 

[Superjack]

5 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Don't like it Dave. That's self fulfilling. 

For me it's all about performances now. 

Because Manning is all about Manning. 

If only we had a 'manager' that was all about the club...

[Davefevs]

15 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Don't like it Dave. That's self fulfilling. 

For me it's all about performances now. 

Fwiw I’d try to get JKL some minutes, and if ready, give AB a boost by getting him involved in the MD29, but I think the others are quite a way off.

I think it is gonna be interesting to see which players are still “up for it”.

[TDarwall]

25 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Fwiw I’d try to get JKL some minutes, and if ready, give AB a boost by getting him involved in the MD29, but I think the others are quite a way off.

I think it is gonna be interesting to see which players are still “up for it”.

There was talk a few weeks back of a specific target he'd been set to keep his job. Its perfectly reasonable to throw philosophy out of the window until ones achieved that target cos of you get the boot you can't apply your philosophy anyway. However once you've achieved that target it clearly makes more sense to plan for medium term.

I'm never a fan of setting such specific targets though as arguably it encourages the wrong behaviours.

[Kibs]

29 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Fwiw I’d try to get JKL some minutes, and if ready, give AB a boost by getting him involved in the MD29, but I think the others are quite a way off.

I think it is gonna be interesting to see which players are still “up for it”.

Yep, it’ll soon show if they aren’t up for it given most of the teams we’re playing still have it all to play for.

[pillred]

7 hours ago, Gert Mare said:

Liam if we win tomorrow...

I think you have lived up to your poster name with this post :laugh:.

Edited April 8 by pillred

[Grey Fox]

5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

And here we have it:

 

Glad to know we have renewed ambition, could we make 12th , or are we nailed on 13th ……………

[mozo]

The what if situation that I always think of is... if we'd have held on for wins against Coventry and Ipswich - we were 2-1 up in each game with 10 minutes left, in what would have been brilliantly executed away wins - we would now be 5 points better off, only one position higher, but in with a shout of finishing 7th. 

20 minutes (plus stoppage time) of resilience and we'd probably have a different assessment of the Manning era so far.

 

 

Edited April 8 by mozo

[PossetRobin]

In The Times today....

[Davefevs]

11 minutes ago, mozo said:

The what if situation that I always think of is... if we'd have held on for wins against Coventry and Ipswich - we were 2-1 up in each game with 10 minutes left, in what would have been brilliantly executed away wins - we would now be 5 points better off, only one position higher, but in with a shout of finishing 7th. 

20 minutes (plus stoppage time) of resilience and we'd probably have a different assessment of the Manning era so far.

 

 

Funnily enough (referring to the other thread) Coventry (a) was one game where we did “sustain” a series of “attacks” in the opening 25 mins.  I thought we were good for 20 mins versus Huddersfield (a) too.  Both games we went 1-0 down, whilst on top!

Although I didn’t think Ipswich (a) was well executed - I’m in the minority, so happy if the majority rule.  Coventry we were incredibly sloppy second half and I thought Coventry looked the likely winners, they stretched us big-time.  The surprise was that it was us that went ahead and gave ourselves a (missed) chance of three points.

I think with “what ifs” you can usually swing them equally the other way.

I still go back to the underlying numbers as my guide.  But that’s me.

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

Just saying…

We achieved mathematical safety last season on April 15th, game 42 of the season.

Tomorrow is game 42 of this season.

 

 

[Silvio Dante]

27 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Funnily enough (referring to the other thread) Coventry (a) was one game where we did “sustain” a series of “attacks” in the opening 25 mins.  I thought we were good for 20 mins versus Huddersfield (a) too.  Both games we went 1-0 down, whilst on top!

Although I didn’t think Ipswich (a) was well executed - I’m in the minority, so happy if the majority rule.  Coventry we were incredibly sloppy second half and I thought Coventry looked the likely winners, they stretched us big-time.  The surprise was that it was us that went ahead and gave ourselves a (missed) chance of three points.

I think with “what ifs” you can usually swing them equally the other way.

I still go back to the underlying numbers as my guide.  But that’s me.

Indeed - if you take the wins then there are a few that stick out that could have gone the other way or we rode our luck.

E.G. Sunderland (H) - Battered for most of the game and under constant pressure (they must be sick of the sight of us)

Hull (H) - Deserved on balance of play but the goals came with a huge slice of luck - keeper should save Mehmetis goal and injured himself when doing so, Knight goal massive deflection

Swansea (H) - Could easily have been behind and had that happened we may not even be discussing Liam

Over the course of the season it balances out and you end up getting what you deserve. As an example I think we should have beaten Stoke at home under Pearson and probably didn’t deserve to beat Coventry. This is why picking out 2-3 games is pointless to say “if that would have happened” - it evens itself out

Or to put it another way: