Playing Style and promotion

[Davefevs]

I’ve been quite outspoken about whether we should try to match the possession sides or not, and fallen on the side of “not”, because in the main those sides are the monied teams.

Saw this reply to a thread started by a PNE fan and journo:

 

[cityexile]

When people talk about ‘Manningball’ I assume they mean the possession based patient build up style, that takes a low risk approach to losing possession and getting caught in transition. More Man City, Leicester, Southampton than say Ipswich, Leeds, Liverpool.

Its a scale of course, but when people talk about giving LM windows to get in his players to play his way, there is no universe in which we get in players of the cost of those with parachute payments. It’s a dead end, we will never out Southampton Southampton, given our budgets. We are more like to end up as Russell Martin’s Swansea.

It seems to me, gut feel, that the teams that have broken the mold and had a real go with no parachute payments do not as a rule play this way. It’s more built around energy, physicality, athleticism. It is possible LM is starting to ‘get’ this. Let’s hope, and the summer window will give us an indication. 

The other aspect is even if played by great players, it can be somewhat dull. Played by average players it is mind numbingly tedious.

It would be more interesting to see the analysis of the teams that have gone up over this period without parachute payments. Not sure the data above is saying much more than teams that go up generally create more chances and have most of the ball. It’s focussed on outcomes rather than different methods that lead to that. I also suspect in our case there is very little correlation between these stats and our results this season.

Lots of managers fancy they could be Pep, if they only had his quality of players.

 

Edited April 21 by cityexile

[22A]

Just imagine; 46 games in a season and City have 23 undeserved and dull 1-0 home wins coupled with 23 dull and boring 0-0 away draws.

It would not be enjoyable entertainment, BUT City would have 92 points and a goal difference of +23.

[Davefevs]

@cityexile excellent summary.

Heres a better screenshot with the 14 / 24 promoted teams highlighted with PPs. 

[cityexile]

17 minutes ago, 22A said:

Just imagine; 46 games in a season and City have 23 undeserved and dull 1-0 home wins coupled with 23 dull and boring 0-0 away draws.

It would not be enjoyable entertainment, BUT City would have 92 points and a goal difference of +23.

I don’t mind a team built around a defence that is rock solid. The closest we have got to that, and your results, is that GJ season. It’s not end to end, but being able to defend like demons is also enjoyable in its way. You come away believing you deserved the 1-0 because you gave the other team nothing.

That is different to 1-0 wins where you give away too many chances the other team just misses. Sooner or later you will revert to the mean.

[Davefevs]

7 minutes ago, cityexile said:

I don’t mind a team built around a defence that is rock solid. The closest we have got to that, and your results, is that GJ season. It’s not end to end, but being able to defend like demons is also enjoyable in its way. You come away believing you deserved the 1-0 because you gave the other team nothing.

That is different to 1-0 wins where you give away too many chances the other team just misses. Sooner or later you will revert to the mean.

Agree, if thats the method / approach and it’s executed I can buy into it.

[mozo]

Of course, under Manning we've won 5-0, 4-1, 3-2 (twice) and 3-1, so it's not likely that we'll become a dull 1-0 team next season.

[OliOTIB]

Our defence is up there with the best in the league statistically, and will only get better.

The attack is starting to click, new striker guaranteed in the summer, hopefully that drives it forwards.

Midfield is getting better and with a potentially Bird x Knight combo, it can be effective.

Only way is up surely?

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, OliOTIB said:

Our defence is up there with the best in the league statistically, and will only get better.

I would offer a note of caution in respect of defence albeit their are some transitional periods as we go between back 4, back 3, back again. This offsets some of it and things are on the up again but this Isn t so much a critique of individuals but I wonder if we are quite as rock solid. We're good, we're decent don't get me wrong.

Though in terms of Goals Conceded we are, in respect of some underlying numbers albeit tbis was prior to this weekend I have the following data. Fbref- models differ.

We absolutely have a decent base to build on across the pitch, agree with the overall premise.

Edited April 22 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

[Mr Popodopolous]

As for the actual OP by Dave, Leeds under Bielsa and Brentford under Frank were perhaps 2 sides who went up with good Possession numbers but without Parachute Payments or so I've always thought.

Can't be many others? Wagner and Huddersfield were technically alright at times, Nuno and Wolves very good in a range of ways but were either Possession sides as such?

Edited April 22 by Mr Popodopolous

[1960maaan]

6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I would offer a note of caution in respect of defence albeit their are some transitional periods as we go between back 4, back 3, back again. This offsets some of it and things are on the up again but this Isn t so much a critique of individuals but I wonder if we are quite as rock solid. We're good, we're decent don't get me wrong.

This is somewhere near where I am. Yes on the whole we have been good, but I tend to look at the chances we allow that are missed . Yes , no one will take every chance, but just looking at our game Vs Leicester Vardy will have few days like that. 
When some are going "weyhey !! " when someone misses a gilt edge chance , I'm thinking" that was poor from us, and lucky".

The conversation has been had before, when we were getting in lots of last ditch tackles , clean sheets are great but tend to look beyond that. We have a sound base , and I think a stronger MF will help , but we are not there yet.

10 hours ago, cityexile said:

When people talk about ‘Manningball’ I assume they mean the possession based patient build up style, that takes a low risk approach to losing possession and getting caught in transition. More Man City, Leicester, Southampton than say Ipswich, Leeds, Liverpool.

Its a scale of course, but when people talk about giving LM windows to get in his players to play his way, there is no universe in which we get in players of the cost of those with parachute payments. It’s a dead end, we will never out Southampton Southampton, given our budgets. We are more like to end up as Russell Martin’s Swansea.

My worry is that we were going to try for a Man City type game, and we can't , but it can be incredibly dull interspersed with World Class when they do it, that's something we simply can't do. I like us playing that high press , we look organised and threatening . We need to learn to play with a higher % of the ball and play at a better tempo in those games. We played some nice stuff against Norwich , but they gave us the opportunity to play. If we can find a way to have the ball and not settle into a slow pass/pass/pass (Swansea) , which inevitably ends in a slow turgid performance . 

I'm hopeful that Manning has learnt and gets us mixing styles , we need to be able to keep the ball to see games out, but we look better all round when pressing high.

Going forward into next year , a real "10" might help . Whether Twine , which I doubt , or someone else it can (maybe) turn us into a top 10 challenger . We look like our preferred formation is back 3/5 , fine we have the players to do that , though we need a couple to fill out the squad.
I'd be happy to keep Conway , tough though. We will not get full value if we sell and will not improve on him for the same money. That's the first tough call.
Williams is another , I'd keep him if possible , not just down to what we want though. 
Is Roberts now a CB ? You have to wonder about Atkinson & Naismith so if he is ( and I think that would be a good balance) we need another LWB.
I think we are short of a genuine left sided AMF. 
Lots of questions to answer ......

All about our budget now .

[mozo]

12 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I’ve been quite outspoken about whether we should try to match the possession sides or not, and fallen on the side of “not”, because in the main those sides are the monied teams.

Saw this reply to a thread started by a PNE fan and journo:

 

The thing that stands out to me when we come up against the more technically talented teams is the speed of thought of the players, and the consistency of execution.

We've got players like Bell, Mehmet and Sykes that are capable of top quality attacking play (in different ways), but you can't depend on them to execute consistently. 

In a lot of our games under both Manning and Pearson I've seen a midfield capable of high quality build up play, only for the possession to break down in the final third.

So it's not just a case of having a set style, it's also dependent on who's playing, and what version of that player turns up.

The general passing style might be consistent, but other variables may change depending on personnel. For example, if ball carrying defenders like Atkinson or Dickie are on the pitch, the passing options in midfield increase, and the sum of the parts is different. 

Equally, Roberts can be trusted on the ball in defence, whereas Vyner might be better off launching it under pressure. 

I'm rambling, and I guess trying to make the point that whether you play a possession based style or a mire direct counter attacking style, the effectiveness will always depend on variables, and for that reason, neither Pearson nor Manning have been able to garner consistent performances. 

When either style works, it looks beautiful. When Nigeball was bad, it descended into long balls and wasted energy. When Manningball is bad, it looks tentative, ponderous and negative.

The challenge for the head coach is to pick a style (identity etc), and to make it work with all the limitations that our players have. 

I genuinely think that quality in the final third has been letting us down for years; ever since Andi Weimann decided he was going to be Andriy Shevchenko for a year.

 

[Numero Uno]

9 hours ago, mozo said:

Of course, under Manning we've won 5-0, 4-1, 3-2 (twice) and 3-1, so it's not likely that we'll become a dull 1-0 team next season.

.........and the rest of the games have been Binary in terms of our goals scored, bar a 3-2 defeat at Ipswich, haven't they?

[Robbored]

23 minutes ago, mozo said:

The challenge for the head coach is to pick a style (identity etc), and to make it work with all the limitations that our players have. 

I genuinely think that quality in the final third has been letting us down for years; ever since Andi Weimann decided he was going to be Andriy Shevchenko for a year.

First sentence - I assume that’s what Manning has been trying to do and largely why he’s repeatedly going on about ‘time on the grass’. It appears that he’s frustrated by the relentless nature of the Championship - welcome to a higher level of football Liam. 

Second highlighted sentence - many of us have been saying exactly that particularly since Manning was appointed. The absence of Chris Wood type CF has been obvious but according to BT that type of player is top of the summer shopping list and already identified. 

Obviously this summer’s business is when Manning can try to recruit the type of player he wants and offload those he thinks are surplus to requirements and then have a full preseason to work with next season’s squad before the next campaign gets underway.

After 10 or so games in we’ll have an idea of what his methods and style of play have developed into………

[mozo]

28 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

.........and the rest of the games have been Binary in terms of our goals scored, bar a 3-2 defeat at Ipswich, haven't they?

Coventry 2-2 springs to mind, and dlfew 2-1s either way. I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary. 

We've won 1-0 seven times this season. Of those, 4 were under Manning, 3 were not.

 

[Numero Uno]

2 minutes ago, mozo said:

Coventry 2-2 springs to mind, and dlfew 2-1s either way. I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary. 

We've won 1-0 seven times this season. Of those, 4 were under Manning, 3 were not.

 

We have one of the best defensive records in the division and a poor goals scored record. That alone tells you it's binary for the major part.

[mozo]

5 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

We have one of the best defensive records in the division and a poor goals scored record. That alone tells you it's binary for the major part.

So we need to be more creative and clinical in the final third,  which I guess is why we are strengthening our attack in the summer.

 

[robin_unreliant]

10 hours ago, OliOTIB said:

Our defence is up there with the best in the league statistically, and will only get better.

The attack is starting to click, new striker guaranteed in the summer, hopefully that drives it forwards.

Midfield is getting better and with a potentially Bird x Knight combo, it can be effective.

Only way is up surely?

You mean the Knight x Bird combination that was part of a team that failed to make L1 play offs last season? Need to manage our expectations here I feel.

[marmite]

4 hours ago, Numero Uno said:

We have one of the best defensive records in the division and a poor goals scored record. That alone tells you it's binary for the major part.

46 clean sheets in a season will get you relegated if you don't score at the other end. We desperately need to be more positive in attack. Goals win games not clean sheets.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Both conversion and creativity can be a problem albeit trends are improving.

I dunno what sample size we want but on a basic shots/goals ratio in this little run.

9 Goals, 75 Shots Taken albeit 3 of these were penalties.

Conversion rate 12%, non penalty Conversion Rate 8.33%.

Other end. There were no penalties against.

2 Goals, 75 Shots Allowed, Conversion Rate 2.667%.

Both are lower than trending norms in respect of Non Penalty. Basic Shot data is fairly midtableish. Maybe a bit higher.