Sheff Utd, Burnley & Luton

[David Brent]

Luton’s signings will stand them in good stead for next season. I imagine they’ll go straight back up. 

[Super]

Luton are the only ones to come out with any credit for me. Burnley have been dreadful under Kompany who has got away with it a bit and SheffU were doomed from day one.

[Major Isewater]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

And some very low points totals will keep two teams that have cheated the system up

It makes a mockery of the game. 

[TammyAB]

Out of the three coming down Burnley are the only ones I’m very confident will finish in the top 6 next season. That’s not to say the other two won’t.

 

If we lose either Leeds or Southampton through the playoffs to go with Leicester, I think the league will be weaker next season to our benefit

[The Coach]

Was out with a mate of mine yesterday who’s a Burnley season ticket holder. He doesn’t even believe they’ll make the top 6 next season. He commented their squad this season was worse than last season and a lot of the signings they’ve made have been poor. 
 

There are questions over Kompany’s ability as manager so he may be one next season who gets the chop if they don’t respond from relegation. 

[1960maaan]

Burnley were so good in Promotion I think they could sort themselves out to make a push. They came down last time with financial question marks and Kompany did a great job , they have about £40M worth of players OOC/returning to clubs  this summer so will probably need a rebuild . 

Luton I think will be better for the experience and should push top 6 . Transfermarkt has them spending £25M this year, should leave a healthy chunk of Prem money to build again. 

Sheff U, funny one this. I heard some serious rumours about finances . They have some of their better players leaving and if their owner sticks to his word about not putting any more money in, they could be in for a tough year.

I don't see another Promoted team doing an Ipswich ( but you never know) , the teams that miss out on the Playoff's will potentially be the favs for the League, specially Leeds or Southampton. Norwich will be better again too. 

Maybe a good time to get our shit together ? 

[ExiledAjax]

36 minutes ago, The Coach said:

Was out with a mate of mine yesterday who’s a Burnley season ticket holder. He doesn’t even believe they’ll make the top 6 next season. He commented their squad this season was worse than last season and a lot of the signings they’ve made have been poor. 

There are questions over Kompany’s ability as manager so he may be one next season who gets the chop if they don’t respond from relegation. 

Does he know they'll have £44m(ish) more to spend than most of the other teams?

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Does he know they'll have £44m(ish) more to spend than most of the other teams?

Plus the extra £22m in headroom (£61m vs £39m). Plus the £2.5m Cost of Living FFP increase which I just remembered but that lifts all clubs.

Albeit both them and Sheffield United, the financial trajectory is questionable from an angle of Cash Pile, borrowed money etc.

Edited May 11 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

21 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

Norwich will be better again too. 

On one level yes, on another level maybe not. They will be going from £61m in Upper Loss limit and £35m or so in Parachute Payments to £39m (okay £41.5m) Upper Loss Limit and EFL money.

That is a rapidly shrinking headroom base. Clubs who yoyo only get Year 1 (55%) and Year 2 (45%) of the Central Award but there is no 20% for 3rd year, straight down to EFL cash.

Edited May 11 by Mr Popodopolous

[1960maaan]

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

On one level yes, on another level maybe not. They will be going from £61m in Upper Loss limit and £35m or so in Parachute Payments to £39m (okay £41.5m) Upper Loss Limit and EFL money.

That is a rapidly shrinking headroom base. Clubs who yoyo only get Year 1 (55%) and Year 2 (45%) of the Central Award but there is no 20% for 3rd year, straight down to EFL cash.

I don't know how they stand with their finances , but I imagine they will do their best to keep that side together . Seemed to get better as the season went on . They will probably see next year as an opportunity , if they don't win the PO's.

[Ashton Fete]

I think Burnley changed too much of their starting 11 and chased it too much

Benson as an example was great in the Champ but has had ad hoc minutes

Pushed too hard and lost what worked 

[Mr Popodopolous]

24 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

I don't know how they stand with their finances , but I imagine they will do their best to keep that side together . Seemed to get better as the season went on . They will probably see next year as an opportunity , if they don't win the PO's.

Query how well they can, clubs who lose between x and y have to submit by 31st March of the existing season their following 2 seasons forecast to the EFL.

I won't go Chapter and Verse but the EFL/CFRU can intervene in more restrictive ways if clubs are being difficult or resistant but the idea is to keep clubs compliant at all times, prevent breaches before they occur ideally by club and League working together.

[petehinton]

45 minutes ago, Ashton Fete said:

I think Burnley changed too much of their starting 11 and chased it too much

Benson as an example was great in the Champ but has had ad hoc minutes

Pushed too hard and lost what worked 

Kompany and co were so ******* ignorant and naive it’s actually quite staggering. 
 

Consider the insane amount of PL experience they all carry, the fact they thought they could win promotion and try and play the exact same expansive, open way is incredible.
 

To start that way, realise your mistakes, and then alter it quickly is one thing. To be so stubborn you think it’s the right way to go about things, despite getting embarrassed every week, that you don’t change a thing is truly bizarre.  
 

The fact a few months ago he said he was finding it easier to manage at the level than he was anticipating, is the cherry on top. 

[Curr Avon]

4 hours ago, Northern Red said:

Sheff Utd should come as no surprise to anyone who watched them last season.

Burnley have been very naive.

Chris Wilder never got over the Sandwiches incident.

[The Coach]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

Does he know they'll have £44m(ish) more to spend than most of the other teams?

They also need to offload if they wish to spend apparently. However, feeling is no PL club will want to purchase their players.

[Mr Popodopolous]

19 minutes ago, The Coach said:

They also need to offload if they wish to spend apparently. However, feeling is no PL club will want to purchase their players.

Could that assist us for Twine?

[Rossi the Robin]

As we all know we perform better against the better footballing sides. It’s the more rugged ones who sit back with have the issues with.

We should be looking to at least be around the top ten, in with a chance of sneaking the play offs 

[Charlie BCFC]

Burnley look to be in the best state, not replacing Tella and Maatsen with similar quality has been their downfall this season. Luton I think will find it harder but still be fighting to get in the top 6. Sheffield United I can see being bottom half very easily

[Mr Popodopolous]

18 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

Burnley look to be in the best state, not replacing Tella and Maatsen with similar quality has been their downfall this season. Luton I think will find it harder but still be fighting to get in the top 6. Sheffield United I can see being bottom half very easily

Don't like some of Burnley's cash position although this was the position at end of July 2023 so maybe outdated.

That sounds great but an issue is that the £124m owed to them maybe paper only ie no intention of repaying any time soon or ability to do so.

Factoring is basically bringing forward proceeds of debt. This method is perhaps to sell your future Receivables (Transfer fee instalments) in order to get them now and pay a fee or interest and they go directly to the lender as they fall due.

Perhaps they will be hemmed in or to a degree, distressed sellers.

Edited May 11 by Mr Popodopolous

[The Coach]

7 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Could that assist us for Twine?

If the price is right but would you want to spend 5mil? I’d go 2mil max.

[Davefevs]

9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Perhaps they will be hemmed in or to a degree, distressed sellers.

Is that just trying to set a narrative for signing Twine?  In many ways, I think it’s become less likely Manning gets him now they’re relegated.

They will get there £100m+ PL money, they’ll have £45m PP, wage reduction clauses in many contracts, etc.

They have Twine (as we know), Obafemi, Weghorst, McNally, Roberts returning from loan, all capable Champ players.

I think they might have an obligation to buy Tresor.

Season after relegation doesn’t seem to hit many clubs these days.

[redsquirrel]

10 hours ago, Rossi the Robin said:

As we all know we perform better against the better footballing sides. It’s the more rugged ones who sit back with have the issues with.

We should be looking to at least be around the top ten, in with a chance of sneaking the play offs 

sneak in? we are going to stroll in.

[RUSSEL85]

14 hours ago, Super said:

Luton are the only ones to come out with any credit for me. Burnley have been dreadful under Kompany who has got away with it a bit and SheffU were doomed from day one.

And spent over £100m but didn’t come anywhere near the amount of scrutiny as some managers struggling. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Is that just trying to set a narrative for signing Twine?  In many ways, I think it’s become less likely Manning gets him now they’re relegated.

They will get there £100m+ PL money, they’ll have £45m PP, wage reduction clauses in many contracts, etc.

They have Twine (as we know), Obafemi, Weghorst, McNally, Roberts returning from loan, all capable Champ players.

I think they might have an obligation to buy Tresor.

Season after relegation doesn’t seem to hit many clubs these days.

You could be right but the leveraged buyout may have changed the calculus, time will tell.

Yeah Burnley will have all that but FFP no issue, it is some of the Cash items that make me wonder a bit. If Twine was deemed surplus combined with that it could be to the advantage of a buying club..their owners have put next to nothing equity and cash wise in.

One to keep an eye on at least, whether it will help with Twine that is in turn another issue.

Edited May 12 by Mr Popodopolous

[pillred]

17 hours ago, maxjak said:

So pissed off that Forest somehow stayed up......by default, rather than their own efforts.   I can see them coming down next season...and will definitely   be having  a bet on it.

They were docked points yet still stayed up, I would say that was by their own efforts, wouldn't you?

[Davefevs]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

You could be right but the leveraged buyout may have changed the calculus, time will tell.

Yeah Burnley will have all that but FFP no issue, it is some of the Cash items that make me wonder a bit.

surely they’ll do what all the other PL clubs with Cashflow issues do, and transfer their future PP money to Macquarie Bank, or take a secured loan from them!

If Twine was deemed surplus combined with that it could be to the advantage of a buying club..their owners have put next to nothing equity and cash wise in.

“If”!!! The inside intel is that they see him as a part of their squad next season, so if anyone wants to buy him, stump up the asking price.  £5m vs £2m book value, only realises them £3m.  

One to keep an eye on at least, whether it will help with Twine that is in turn another issue.

[richwwtk]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Is that just trying to set a narrative for signing Twine?  In many ways, I think it’s become less likely Manning gets him now they’re relegated.

They will get there £100m+ PL money, they’ll have £45m PP, wage reduction clauses in many contracts, etc.

They have Twine (as we know), Obafemi, Weghorst, McNally, Roberts returning from loan, all capable Champ players.

I think they might have an obligation to buy Tresor.

Season after relegation doesn’t seem to hit many clubs these days.

Wouldn't one of the major factors be which club Twine would prefer to play for as well?

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Agree wirh a lot of this but that £124m owed but that may not be repaid any time soon..

Securing against Parachute Payments could do it, albeit I haven't for a while checked what is and isn't secured already.

Mind you in a remotely normal industry how many clubs would still be viable businesses, perhaps I'm overstating.

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, richwwtk said:

Wouldn't one of the major factors be which club Twine would prefer to play for as well?

Dunno!  Major, minor, somewhere in between?

It's a very situation to someone wanting to leave to get 3x / 4x their wage as part of a step-up.  Hard to stand in their way then.  Twine has 2 years left on his contract, on sensible wages, so wages wise I doubt there’s an issue.  But it’s not like we are gonna blow Burnley out of the water with a wage either.

I’ve yet to hear a player questioned about his current club (signing, loan, contract) say he doesn’t want to be at said club either.  So we’ve really no idea who Twine prefers to play for.  Nor if he became available do I think Bristol City would be the only Champ club in for him.  So if Burnley are still insisting on £5m like they were in January, we need to decide to stump up or pull out early.  Unless we think we can wait to do another loan later in the summer.  That would be foolish to wait in that imho, but that’s just my thoughts.

But I think a lot of people have convinced themselves that he wants to leave Burnley (we’ve no idea) and that we’d be doing them a favour by taking him off their hands for £2m.

If we do manage to pull it off at that price, fantastic. My gut feel is that we won’t, because we had two goes in January, and Burnley didn’t budge then.  But then again, I could see us overpaying (imho) £5m too, to give support to LM, because that’s the kind of thing we do!

[Jobi]

I can see all 3 struggling to match their previous achievements next season. Especially Sheff Utd who seem awful.