2024/25 more of the same?

[22A]

This expert has us finishing 12th - 15th. 8 mins in;

 

[Barrs Court Red]

2 minutes ago, 22A said:

This expert has us finishing 12th - 15th. 8 mins in;

 

And that is the beauty of the close season, because it’s impossible to say how it’s going to go for most of the 92. 
 

I have a feeling next season won’t be a mid table finish. 

[Rob k]

4 minutes ago, 22A said:

This expert has us finishing 12th - 15th. 8 mins in;

 

God knows how they can come up with anything until at least July when the recruitment is being done 

[Cov 77]

5 minutes ago, 22A said:

This expert has us finishing 12th - 15th. 8 mins in;

 

This expert

[wendyredredrobin]

As things stand, I'm expecting more of the same next season unless we manage to bring in a centre forward over the summer and don't lose any of our decent players (though most of them have already gone).  Our run towards the end of this season gave me a little more optimism, but our display against QPR showed that there will be games where this steam still cannot be arsed.

Edited May 13 by wendyredredrobin

[Malago]

Blimey.  We don’t yet know the full composition of the league.  

[IAmNick]

Looks like he's just reading out the bookies odds basically, which is low effort even for a youtube football channel!

[Silvio Dante]

To do the normal trope:

1. its

2.Still

3.May

4.And

5.Far

6.Too

7. Early

8.To

9.Predict

10.Next

11.Preston

12.Bristol City

13.Seasons

14.Table

15. So

16. Trying 

17. That

18. Has

19. An

20. Effect

21. Of 

22. You

23. Looking 

24. Moronic

 

[Super]

23 minutes ago, Malago said:

Blimey.  We don’t yet know the full composition of the league.  

Yep complete nonsense.

[Pezo]

8 hours ago, Barrs Court Red said:

And that is the beauty of the close season, because it’s impossible to say how it’s going to go for most of the 92. 
 

I have a feeling next season won’t be a mid table finish. 

Have you said that at any point in the last 9 years?

[Barrs Court Red]

45 minutes ago, Pezo said:

Have you said that at any point in the last 9 years?

Good question. I thought with a fair wind and Alex Scott we may have been more competitive last season. 
 

Other than that, I expected Play offs at times under LJ, but that period seemed to have a theme of diminishing returns, and relegation under Holden. 
 

 

[White Stripe]

11 hours ago, Barrs Court Red said:

And that is the beauty of the close season, because it’s impossible to say how it’s going to go for most of the 92. 
 

I have a feeling next season won’t be a mid table finish. 

I looked at a chart of total salary spend per club for the season just passed and compared that with league position.  There was a strong correlation between them. There were two glaring exceptions: Ipswich, who overperformed compared with budget and Sheffield Wednesday who underperformed.  The rest of the clubs weren't far off. The caveat is the salary figures - were they accurate.   I agree with your statement, based on the fact that the squads aren't sorted for next season it's ludicrous to predict at this stage, but it's always interesting. 

 

[ExiledAjax]

37 minutes ago, White Stripe said:

I looked at a chart of total salary spend per club for the season just passed and compared that with league position.  There was a strong correlation between them. There were two glaring exceptions: Ipswich, who overperformed compared with budget and Sheffield Wednesday who underperformed.  The rest of the clubs weren't far off. The caveat is the salary figures - were they accurate.   I agree with your statement, based on the fact that the squads aren't sorted for next season it's ludicrous to predict at this stage, but it's always interesting. 

The correlation between wage budget and league position holds quite well across leagues, countries, divisions etc.

FWIW Manning probably had Oxford out-performing their wage budget by a few positions. I think they tend to be shown as having a wage budget somewhere around 8th in that division, and he had them in 2nd iirc.

I've no proof of it, and I'm not saying it vindicates any decision, but I have a suspicion that this was a factor in his appointment with us.

We need to over-perform our wage budget.

[White Stripe]

25 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

The correlation between wage budget and league position holds quite well across leagues, countries, divisions etc.

FWIW Manning probably had Oxford out-performing their wage budget by a few positions. I think they tend to be shown as having a wage budget somewhere around 8th in that division, and he had them in 2nd iirc.

I've no proof of it, and I'm not saying it vindicates any decision, but I have a suspicion that this was a factor in his appointment with us.

We need to over-perform our wage budget.

Aye.  Our budget has been pretty decent though, hasn't it?  Just over mid-table? Close enough to give us a fighting chance, other things being equal.  Nige said in that recent interview that Liam had inherited a good situation (or words to that effect).

Interesting observation about Manning at Oxford.  I hope Oxford get promoted.

[Charlie BCFC]

12 hours ago, 22A said:

This expert has us finishing 12th - 15th. 8 mins in;

 

Can never get my head around predictions when we don’t know who’s staying down from the playoffs, relegated from the premier league and the winners from the league 1 playoffs

[ExiledAjax]

7 minutes ago, White Stripe said:

Aye.  Our budget has been pretty decent though, hasn't it?  Just over mid-table? Close enough to give us a fighting chance, other things being equal.  Nige said in that recent interview that Liam had inherited a good situation (or words to that effect).

Interesting observation about Manning at Oxford.  I hope Oxford get promoted.

General consensus seems to be that we are likely around 10th(ish).

Regardless, we know there's no way we have a wage budget in the top 6 (mainly due to parachute payments), and it's in the top 6 that we need to finish in order to get promoted.

So even if we generously say we have the 7th or 8th highest wage budget, we still need to out-perform it, and finish higher than at least one team that pays more than us.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

General consensus seems to be that we are likely around 10th(ish).

Regardless, we know there's no way we have a wage budget in the top 6 (mainly due to parachute payments), and it's in the top 6 that we need to finish in order to get promoted.

So even if we generously say we have the 7th or 8th highest wage budget, we still need to out-perform it, and finish higher than at least one team that pays more than us.

23-24’s accounts will be a better guide as it will be a 12 month period, unlike 22-23’s which was 13 months.

I just wish our “other costs” were more equivalent to other clubs.  I think they make us look like we have a bigger “playing” budget than we actually do.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

23-24’s accounts will be a better guide as it will be a 12 month period, unlike 22-23’s which was 13 months.

I just wish our “other costs” were more equivalent to other clubs.  I think they make us look like we have a bigger “playing” budget than we actually do.

We still won't have a top 6 wage bill though will we Dave. For the season just gone the top 6 will almost certainly be Leicester, Southampton, Leeds, WBA, Watford, and Norwich. We won't have a higher wage bill than any of those 6.

We need to out-perform our wage bill if we are ever to get top 6.

It's possible. Luton last season, Ipswich this. But you need an X-factor, a USP, a "little bit of magic". Can we find that?

I've said for a while now that our stars align more next season than they have done for years. But we will still need that little something to tip our fortunes.

...

Edit: ah you're saying you think we might have a budget lower than 10th, and that the accounts might demo that. Right. Maybe yes, but if so then we need to do an even more impressive job to get to where we want to be.

Edited May 14 by ExiledAjax

[DaveInSA]

8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

We still won't have a top 6 wage bill though will we Dave. For the season just gone the top 6 will almost certainly be Leicester, Southampton, Leeds, WBA, Watford, and Norwich. We won't have a higher wage bill than any of those 6.

We need to out-perform our wage bill if we are ever to get top 6.

It's possible. Luton last season, Ipswich this. But you need an X-factor, a USP, a "little bit of magic". Can we find that?

I've said for a while now that our stars align more next season than they have done for years. But we will still need that little something to tip our fortunes.

Only if Take That buy the club from big Steve.

On a more serious note, there is no magic at the club is there. No inspiration. Nothing that shouts out “innovative and forward thinking”

The leadership team has no bite, and about 1/3 of a brain cell and less charisma than the car of the same name.

[Red-Robbo]

Let's face it, we finish mid-table more of often than not. In the absence of any other data on how the club will recruit this summer and how we'll look when we resume the earliest thing is for an "expert" to say, yeah, probably about 12th.

Personally, I cannot predict which way we'll go. Not yet. 

[downendcity]

15 hours ago, Rob k said:

God knows how they can come up with anything until at least July when the recruitment is being done 

Probably been reading OTIB, from which they will deduce that fans can't warm to Manning, that we will be without experience and/or leaders on the pitch following the departure of senior players.

They would also conclude that fans lack almost any confidence in the hierarchy recruitment team being able to bring in suitable reinforcements/replacements.

All in all, for such a shambles of a club we're lucky they have us doing as well as 12th to 15th!

P.S. this is tongue in cheek, although all of the above are comments I've read on here recently.

[BrizzleRed]

I’m not a gambling type, but I predict we’ll finish somewhere just behind Preston!

That pretty much sums up the last decade!!!

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

We still won't have a top 6 wage bill though will we Dave. For the season just gone the top 6 will almost certainly be Leicester, Southampton, Leeds, WBA, Watford, and Norwich. We won't have a higher wage bill than any of those 6.

We need to out-perform our wage bill if we are ever to get top 6.

It's possible. Luton last season, Ipswich this. But you need an X-factor, a USP, a "little bit of magic". Can we find that?

I've said for a while now that our stars align more next season than they have done for years. But we will still need that little something to tip our fortunes.

...

Edit: ah you're saying you think we might have a budget lower than 10th, and that the accounts might demo that. Right. Maybe yes, but if so then we need to do an even more impressive job to get to where we want to be.

Manning, himself said that last night, although used “budget” rather than wage bill.

Agree, wind behind us, downhill, clutch in.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

General consensus seems to be that we are likely around 10th(ish).

Regardless, we know there's no way we have a wage budget in the top 6 (mainly due to parachute payments), and it's in the top 6 that we need to finish in order to get promoted.

So even if we generously say we have the 7th or 8th highest wage budget, we still need to out-perform it, and finish higher than at least one team that pays more than us.

 

5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

23-24’s accounts will be a better guide as it will be a 12 month period, unlike 22-23’s which was 13 months.

I just wish our “other costs” were more equivalent to other clubs.  I think they make us look like we have a bigger “playing” budget than we actually do.

My thinking fwiw is probably somewhere between 10th-14th year just gone.

I'm talking the club specific not the AGL stuff.

I suppose big Commercial Revenue comes with big overheads to a degree- doubt it is the sole issue however.

[Mr Popodopolous]

In respect of the actual budget v Wage Bill, ie turnover and there are variables for all clubs as to FFP headroom, risk averse vs gambling I would say most years 10th at worst, perhaps even one of the top 2 or 3 outside of Parachute clubs. We may have had the 6th or 7th highest turnover in 2022-23.

FFP permitting at any given time, surely we should be looking to spend at least close to that.

Edited May 14 by Mr Popodopolous

[BigTone]

Unless we push the boat out I don't expect any better than this year TBH.

[ExiledAjax]

28 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Manning, himself said that last night, although used “budget” rather than wage bill.

Agree, wind behind us, downhill, clutch in.

As I say as well. My minimum expectation is mid-table, but I always hope for top 6.

[Dan11]

On 14/05/2024 at 12:31, ExiledAjax said:

We still won't have a top 6 wage bill though will we Dave. For the season just gone the top 6 will almost certainly be Leicester, Southampton, Leeds, WBA, Watford, and Norwich. We won't have a higher wage bill than any of those 6.

We need to out-perform our wage bill if we are ever to get top 6.

It's possible. Luton last season, Ipswich this. But you need an X-factor, a USP, a "little bit of magic". Can we find that?

I've said for a while now that our stars align more next season than they have done for years. But we will still need that little something to tip our fortunes.

...

Edit: ah you're saying you think we might have a budget lower than 10th, and that the accounts might demo that. Right. Maybe yes, but if so then we need to do an even more impressive job to get to where we want to be.

People might not like it, but you have to get a couple of decent loanees in if you are going to out punch your budget. They can really transform a squad. We had Hutchinson and Sarmiento that gave us that X Factor on top of a decent/solid squad. You look at Plymouth a couple of seasons ago and it was Mumba/Whittaker. 

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Dan11 said:

People might not like it, but you have to get a couple of decent loanees in if you are going to out punch your budget. They can really transform a squad. We had Hutchinson and Sarmiento that gave us that X Factor on top of a decent/solid squad. You look at Plymouth a couple of seasons ago and it was Mumba/Whittaker. 

It's a fair point that a loanee can be the difference. You take the Tammy Abraham that we had on loan in 2016/17 and stick him in our team, we maybe get top 6.

It's important to remember that loans aren't free. Loan fees and wage contributions do need to be accounted for. They tend to be cheaper than full transfers, but it's not always so.

[Rocking Red Cyril]

On 13/05/2024 at 21:15, Barrs Court Red said:

And that is the beauty of the close season, because it’s impossible to say how it’s going to go for most of the 92. 
 

I have a feeling next season won’t be a mid table finish. 

And what do predict?