Playoffs

[NailseaRed]

come on it's still possible isn't it? 12 points off 6th with 24 to play for. can we sneak it? What if we win every game left reckon that would be enough? I can't help but think we can manage it

[BCFC Taunton]

Would be nice but i don't think we will.

[Robbored]

Good grief! Don't some fans ever give up?

The play-offs have been out of reach since the end of November - you know after that run of 'poor form' when City managed zero points from 7 games.

Twelve points - thats four wins just to draw level! and thats hoping that the teams in the play off places start to struggle.

City have no chance.

[NailseaRed]

Good grief! Don't some fans ever give up?

The play-offs have been out of reach since the end of November - you know after that run of 'poor form' when City managed zero points from 7 games.

Twelve points - thats four wins just to draw level! and thats hoping that the teams in the play off places start to struggle.

City have no chance.

so if we win all of our last 8 games you're saying we definitely wont be in the top 6?

[sephjnr]

so if we win all of our last 8 games you're saying we definitely wont be in the top 6?

He's saying that even if we DO win all 8 of our games, it's quite likely that the teams that are in the playoffs will win most - if not all - of theirs, too. And I believe him.

I'd be flattered if we finished in the top 10, given our huge run of crap form last autumn.

[Port Said Red]

Does it say something about some of our fans that they think we can still do it from our position, whereas it sounds like the Rovers fans think they can't make up a six point deficit in their league.

[Nibor]

come on it's still possible isn't it? 12 points off 6th with 24 to play for. can we sneak it? What if we win every game left reckon that would be enough? I can't help but think we can manage it

It's totally and utterly impossible, even if we won every game we had left, which we won't, we will be 3-5 points short.

Nibor

[gazareth]

If we win all our games, we'll finish on 73 points. The team in 6th needs just 13 points from 8 games to beat that.

For us to make the playoffs we are asking for two things that just won't happen:

1) Us to win all of our remaining games

2) The six teams above us to have bad run-ins

[bucksred]

come on it's still possible isn't it? 12 points off 6th with 24 to play for. can we sneak it? What if we win every game left reckon that would be enough? I can't help but think we can manage it

More chance of pigs flying across the Severn Valley mate. Next Year. Possibly.

[NailseaRed]

It's totally and utterly impossible, even if we won every game we had left, which we won't, we will be 3-5 points short.

Nibor

did you do maths gcse? it's not mathmatically impossible

Well i'm going to hold onto the slim hope that we can do something incredible and manage it Southend and Brentford both lost this weekend, it shows that even the top teams are slipping up. when we're just brushing teams aside hope seems to grow that we can do it i'll never give up until it's impossible and don't think anyone else should either.

[Nibor]

did you do maths gcse? it's not mathmatically impossible

Well i'm going to hold onto the slim hope that we can do something incredible and manage it Southend and Brentford both lost this weekend, it shows that even the top teams are slipping up. when we're just brushing teams aside hope seems to grow that we can do it i'll never give up until it's impossible and don't think anyone else should either.

Yes and I did the statistics A level too. To be more correct, I will say that rather than totally and utterly impossible, the chances of us making the playoffs this season are statistically insignificant. Do you have any idea how many results would have to go our way for it to happen? You're just setting yourself up for disappointment about 3 weeks from now when it does become mathematically impossible as well.

Nibor

[tommy doc]

come on it's still possible isn't it?

[NailseaRed]

Yes and I did the statistics A level too. To be more correct, I will say that rather than totally and utterly impossible, the chances of us making the playoffs this season are statistically insignificant. Do you have any idea how many results would have to go our way for it to happen? You're just setting yourself up for disappointment about 3 weeks from now when it does become mathematically impossible as well.

Nibor

Did you pass them? haha. Until it becomes impossible i will not give up. Loads of you guys have investigated this before, how many points do you reckon are needed for 6th place this season?

I have no idea how many results need to go our way, i'm presuming quite a lot using my knowledge from my maths degree I'm just saying it's still possible, i'm always optimistic and City are never predictable so lets fight for it. who else around us is flying as well as we are? not many teams i bet. come on city don't ever give up hope

[Ian M]

Did you pass them? haha. Until it becomes impossible i will not give up. Loads of you guys have investigated this before, how many points do you reckon are needed for 6th place this season?

I have no idea how many results need to go our way, i'm presuming quite a lot using my knowledge from my maths degree I'm just saying it's still possible, i'm always optimistic and City are never predictable so lets fight for it. who else around us is flying as well as we are? not many teams i bet. come on city don't ever give up hope

To be fair a precedent HAS been set.

Crystal Palace were in 12th at this stage 2 years ago so had the same number of teams to overtake.

They finished 6th on 73 points.

The team that missed out was at this stage lying in the play-offs and only picked up 9 points in the run-in.

Nerves can do a lot of funny things to footballers at this stage of the season and stranger things have happened.

Nailsea Red's argument is that IF we win our remaining 8 games we will "give ourselves a chance" and whilst I agree that this is a tall order not-to-mention highly unlikely, where's the harm in being positive and allowing yourself to imagine the possibility?

If you don't have a dream how are you gonna have a dream come true?

[Nibor]

Did you pass them? haha. Until it becomes impossible i will not give up. Loads of you guys have investigated this before, how many points do you reckon are needed for 6th place this season?

I have no idea how many results need to go our way, i'm presuming quite a lot using my knowledge from my maths degree I'm just saying it's still possible, i'm always optimistic and City are never predictable so lets fight for it. who else around us is flying as well as we are? not many teams i bet. come on city don't ever give up hope

I believe in recent years 73-80 points have been necessary to finish 6th.

However, during that time the top group have not been so far away and the lower 3/4 of the table so closely packed together. 6th place side is currently on course for a 74 point finish which puts them out of our reach anyway. Usually the points per game ratio of teams near the top goes up towards the end of the season as opponents have nothing to play for more often.

We'd need 7 teams to have dramatic downturns in form, we'd need nearly every result between those teams to be a draw, and need every one of them to get beaten frequently when they play someone not in the mix, and we'd need to combine that complete miracle with an equally miraculous 8 game winning streak.

I don't think that's hope I'm afraid. The phrase you're looking for is "cider induced delusion".

Enjoy it though!

To be fair a precedent HAS been set.

Crystal Palace were in 12th at this stage 2 years ago so had the same number of teams to overtake.

They finished 6th on 73 points.

The team that missed out was at this stage lying in the play-offs and only picked up 9 points in the run-in.

Nerves can do a lot of funny things to footballers at this stage of the season and stranger things have happened.

Nailsea Red's argument is that IF we win our remaining 8 games we will "give ourselves a chance" and whilst I agree that this is a tall order not-to-mention highly unlikely, where's the harm in being positive and allowing yourself to imagine the possibility?

If you don't have a dream how are you going to have a dream come true?

It's not just about the number of teams you have to overtake.

When Palace had played 38 they had 54 points, the gap to 6th was 9 points and they had a game in hand on all but one team, they had games against those above them (we have only one), and even then it was a freak.

An unprecedented 9 teams got over 70 points helping to spread out the points at the top. That looks like being 6 or possibly 7 in this league this year at most with the rest a fair way back.

Table here

[054123]

I don't think we will make the play-offs, but it must be nice for Johnson and the team to have something positive to aim towards each week. Fighting off relegation can drag you down mentally, but if you can go in to a game thinking "If we can pick up 3 points here we're in with a shout of the play-offs" it must give you a boost.

[NailseaRed]

right nibor you're banned from writing on this thread if you're going to be so damn realistic!

[mozo]

There every chance that City will win their next two games, which would give us 55 points.

If Barnsley (in 6th) manage say only one point from their games at home to Bournemouth and away to Huddsfield they would have 62 points.

We'd be 7 points behind them with 6 games to play. Wouldn't take a miracle.

Then We'd likely be looking to Oldham who currently are 7th with one less point, hoping they have a bad run too.

If we kept winning our next few we'd have a chance to catch up 3 points on them as we've got them at home on April 17th.

None of this is likely but three wins on the trot from now would definitely get people going.

[Nibor]

There every chance that City will win their next two games, which would give us 55 points.

If Barnsley (in 6th) manage say only one point from their games at home to Bournemouth and away to Huddsfield they would have 62 points.

We'd be 7 points behind them with 6 games to play. Wouldn't take a miracle.

Then We'd likely be looking to Oldham who currently are 7th with one less point, hoping they have a bad run too.

If we kept winning our next few we'd have a chance to catch up 3 points on them as we've got them at home on April 17th.

None of this is likely but three wins on the trot from now would definitely get people going.

We're not just chasing Barnsley. There are 5 other teams between us and them that would have to get less points, and one behind us that can overtake us if they win a game in hand.

[NailseaRed]

hey we're only 3 points of 8th place! and then that means we only have Oldham and Barnsley. We have Oldham to play so that puts them within easy reach. Plus they have to play each other so if thats a draw thats another 2 points dropped each

Run in :

Oldham:

Blackpool - fighting releg

Hartlepool - fighting releg

MK Dons - fighting releg and jsut beat southend!

Barnsley - definitely a draw

Us - we'll they'll lose this one

Swansea - looking for auto

Doncaster - team playiung for nothing

S****horpe - team playing for nothing

NOT an easy run in by all accounts.

Barnsley:

Bournemouth - fighting releg

Huddersfiled - loking for auto

Chesterfield - nothing to play for

Oldham - draw of course!

Southend - making sure of auto

Blackpool - fighting releg

Bradford - nothing to play for

Walsall - fighting releg

Almost every team in the division is still fighting for something, which could be a blessing in disguise. If we keep up our form then no-one can beat us between now and the end of the season. It's still possible

[One Team In Keynsham]

come on it's still possible isn't it? 12 points off 6th with 24 to play for. can we sneak it? What if we win every game left reckon that would be enough? I can't help but think we can manage it

At the start of the season I picked us to finish 7th. As of now, hard to see anything better than 8th being our best shout, and even that requires 4 other teams to all have worse run ins than us.

[RED4LIFE]

Good grief! Don't some fans ever give up?

The play-offs have been out of reach since the end of November - you know after that run of 'poor form' when City managed zero points from 7 games.

Twelve points - thats four wins just to draw level! and thats hoping that the teams in the play off places start to struggle.

City have no chance.

Absolutely agree with you there Robbored. Not sure about a minor miracle, this would be a bigger miracle then the fish/bread trick he pulled off once!!

[Port Said Red]

At the start of the season I picked us to finish 7th. As of now, hard to see anything better than 8th being our best shout, and even that requires 4 other teams to all have worse run ins than us.

Perhaps someone should find and ressurect that prediction thread from the start of the season, I think I said 9th unless Tinnion got his act together . Which is looking quite likely.

[RED4LIFE]

I don't think that's hope I'm afraid. The phrase you're looking for is "cider induced delusion".

Table here

That explains my ex-girlfriend

[BCFC Grim]

NailseaRed I'm loving your optimism. There hasnt been enough of it on this forum lately due to poor season we've had. With the games the play-off contenders have and ours theres still a chance, a small one, but still a chance never the less, of us making a late dash! ! personaly I'm just going to enjoy the rest of the season( now relegation threat is off) and see what the table looks like after walsall!

UP THE CITY

[swampy]

City are actually closer to relegation (8pts) than the play-offs (12 pts). Just as we are almost convinced that releagtion isn't going to happen, using the same logic would make promotion a virtual impossibility.

'Always look on the glass as being half empty'

[Paul Hudd]

It would sum up the whole play off system and Bristol City's luck with it, IF we had a superb run in, finished 6th and won the play offs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

However, thats a pipedream and I think we should have a good end to this season, let Gary Johnson add to the squad, make it stronger and start next season with all guns blazing!!!!!!!!!

[mozo]

We're not just chasing Barnsley. There are 5 other teams between us and them that would have to get less points, and one behind us that can overtake us if they win a game in hand.

If we win all our games I'm fairly certain we'll leapfrog those teams (none of them are on good enough form to win 7 of their remaining games). Only Oldham and Barnsley would take some chasing.

I just don't think we'll win all 8 of our games.

[Sim]

Although mathmatically possible, too many freakish results would be necessary for us to make the play offs now. We need to win every remaining game, again possible, but unlikely. MK Dons had the chance to level at the death at their place and they are bottom. Gillingham have an appalling away record this year and were poor. Yes, we did well to finish them off, but these two results don't map across to what we can expect for the run in. If we finished the run unbeaten, we should think of that good progress.

As for the other teams, should we win all our games, it is unrealistic to see teams floating in 6th or 7th, on resonable form not taking the 13 or so points that they would need to fend us off.

My heart would love it, but my computer says No! Another year of expectation management over...

I genuinely believe that on recent foundations, a settled team (and a signing or two) we will be ok next year. I believe Hayter will come to us in the summer and the rest are improving all the time.

[Nibor]

If we win all our games I'm fairly certain we'll leapfrog those teams (none of them are on good enough form to win 7 of their remaining games). Only Oldham and Barnsley would take some chasing.

I just don't think we'll win all 8 of our games.

Oldham are on better form than us. S****horpe, Doncaster and Forest have the potential to be, they're not far off presently.

I don't think there is any way at all that 7 teams including Barnsley will get a low enough points return from the final 8 games to allow us to overtake them all. Barnsley would need to 13 points, or Oldham 15 from 8 games to put it out of our range. One of them will, probably Oldham.

Nibor