Polish Defence Shield

[Mr Popodopolous]

I'm hoping the creation of a sovereign Kosovo sees the Flemish, Basques, Scots and Welsh also move toward independence, something would see a rise of nationalism in Europe, something that is badly needed.

Hmm, I'm not sure about that, look at the strife that it caused in the Balkans, with particular reference to Bosnia, Croatia, Serbia and latterly Kosovo.

I'm amazed that it didn't spread further myself, considering that the Balkans is where WWI started, so more nationalism in Europe, that is potentially a pretty dangerous concept.

[Mr Mosquito]

I'm amazed that it didn't spread further myself, considering that the Balkans is where WWI started, so more nationalism in Europe, that is potentially a pretty dangerous concept.

It's not spread because the Balkan region is flooded with United Nations troops and observers.

[Mr Popodopolous]

It's not spread because the Balkan region is flooded with United Nations troops and observers.

Yeah I can see why it hasn't spread now.

When it started though pre UN troops + observers, well there were apaprently worries that it may spread into countries that border it in central Europe.

[Mr Mosquito]

Yeah I can see why it hasn't spread now.

When it started though pre UN troops + observers, well there were apaprently worries that it may spread into countries that border it in central Europe.

It's still a very dangerous region. The Sebs over-ran an SAS observer position and killed them in the early 1990's if I remember right. At that time the region also witnessed genocide for the first time in Europe since 1945, tens of thousands of civilians murdered.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Back onto topic, well the defence shield is not the wisest of moves, I know Russia are resurgent and potentially dangerous and yes they have history with Eastern Europe especially Poland.

However, just sit back for a moment and look at it from the POV of a Russian...countries all around them joining up to NATO, which was the organisation that directly faced down Russia in the Cold War and I suspect would not let them in today either, more and more creeping Western influence, even if no invasions etc were planned, having been invaded by Germany and France in the past, as well as by lots of countriries not so long after it went Communist but their armies were defeated. Well being encircled like that will make you a tad paranoid I would think, and in addition to that the ever more rapid expansion of the EU into your 'backyard' as it were and last but not least missiles even if their intention is defence from China, Russia, Iran, whoever, in your direction, well you would be forgiven for feeling trapped, encircled etc, espcially in the context of history. An equivelant context could be an anti American trade alliance expanded into South America between Middle Eastern and South American oil producing countries, well America wouldn't exactly be thrilled by that, indeed when Cuba were allies with Russia they were not best pleased.

Before anyone suggests it, I am not condoning the conduct of other powers, ie Russia, China etc at all, but I still think in the context of history etc, it won't improve matters greatly.

[Mr Mosquito]

Back onto topic, well the defence shield is not the wisest of moves, I know Russia are resurgent and potentially dangerous and yes they have history with Eastern Europe especially Poland.

What would worry me if I were a Russian military strategist is the fact that Britain and France could soon be forced to hand over the keys to their nuclear weapons to the Germans. The Germans are the dominant European Union power and Europe's nuclear weapons are bound to end up in German hands sooner or later. With the Germans having been totally smashed and humiliated by the Russians in World War 2 the Germans might try threatening the Russians again once they have our weapons. Another reason for Britain to get out of the EU.

[bucksred]

What would worry me if I were a Russian military strategist is the fact that Britain and France could soon be forced to hand over the keys to their nuclear weapons to the Germans. The Germans are the dominant European Union power and Europe's nuclear weapons are bound to end up in German hands sooner or later. With the Germans having been totally smashed and humiliated by the Russians in World War 2 the Germans might try threatening the Russians again once they have our weapons. Another reason for Britain to get out of the EU.

Be more afraid Gobster. the French are the dominant EU power, militarily, and they already got Nukes. And Chirac, Le Pen, Sengolene Royal and happy crew. they also invaded Russia, and did better than Fritz.

Besides would you trust Putin, for KGB controller in the bad old days? :noexpression:

[Mr Mosquito]

Be more afraid Gobster. the French are the dominant EU power, militarily, and they already got Nukes. And Chirac, Le Pen, Sengolene Royal and happy crew. they also invaded Russia, and did better than Fritz.

Besides would you trust Putin, for KGB controller in the bad old days? :noexpression:

bucksred, I've found a quite brilliant article for you to read....here's the synopsis......

"The conditions that have made for decades of peace in the West are fast disappearing, as Europe prepares to return to the multi-polar system that, between 1648 and 1945, bred one destructive conflict after another"......John J. Mearsheimer

Read his whole article at the URL below........

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/foreign/mearsh.htm

[bucksred]

bucksred, I've found a quite brilliant article for you to read....here's the synopsis......

"The conditions that have made for decades of peace in the West are fast disappearing, as Europe prepares to return to the multi-polar system that, between 1648 and 1945, bred one destructive conflict after another"......John J. Mearsheimer

Read his whole article at the URL below........

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/foreign/mearsh.htm

Intriuging gobster, but its old now. some of what it says has come to pass.

One thing i'll say, is you have grossly underestimated the pacifist tendency in Germany. the main reason their armed forces cannot assist their NATO allies, is this pacifist streak. The armed forces would by all accounts gladly pitch in in Afghanistan, but not Iraq.

The coalition government there would split, should German troops be commited to fight. The same pacifist streak, has prevented the Armed forces going all proffessional, as have all other European (indeed world class forces)armies bar the Russian. They are constiutionally banned from having a General Staff, Strategic nuclear Weapons, or offensive capable warships. The amount of money as a percentage spent on defence is currently around 1%, well below the NATO requirement of 2.5% of GDP. they are very badly resourced (although not as badly as our forces, sadly)

It would take a huge change of public opinion to reverse this pacifist streak, and successive generations only increase in this streak. Poland is far more aggressive than Germany. indeed Holland and Denmark are markedly more so. France will be a player, spain, and Poland, as well as the UK, but Germany with its shrinking and ageing population, I don't think so.

[Mr Mosquito]

Intriuging gobster, but its old now. some of what it says has come to pass.

The Germans now have THE best main battle tank in the world, the German 'leopard' doesn't change its spots so to speak....

[bucksred]

The Germans now have THE best main battle tank in the world, the German 'leopard' doesn't change its spots so to speak....

Agreed, but they only have 200 left out of the almost 4000 they had in 1990. They cant even field a proper panzer or panzer grenadier division.

They currently operate a Airborne/Special Forces Support division (SF trained by our SAS) and a Phy Ops, and Nation Building brigade. They have insufficient NATO calibre weapons to arm their entire forces, with the result that the current NATO calibre weapons, get left in theatre, on unit changeovers. Conventional military wisdom dictates all fighting troops carry their own personal weapon, calibrated by user at all times.

Their choppers are not allowed to operate after dark, due to H & S legislation, to whit the pilots and crew must have eight hours unbroken sleep, no German helicopters have night vision goggles either.

German soldiers got sent home, about fifteen of them, for daubing "*unacceptable word*" regalia on their vehicles: the "*unacceptable word*" regalia concerned was a palm tree, with the current German eagle stencilled in the middle. Based on what are universally regarded as a first class formation, held in great respect by everyone including the Poles, the Afrika Korps insignia, but without the Swastika. another German formation had its unit name, and armband taken off it, because it was a *unacceptable word* unit. Its name JG71 Moelders. Again another opponent held in very high regard by all its enemies..

You couldn't make it up, as they say in the Sun.

did you know the highest rank in the Bundeswehr is a four star general? In every other country in NATO/EU, including Eire, Cyprus and Iceland, its a five star/field marshall.

And technically, the only German units under national command are the Landwehr, their equivalent of our TA. all other units are in theory under SACEUR command.

[Mr Mosquito]

Agreed, but they only have 200 left out of the almost 4000 they had in 1990. They cant even field a proper panzer or panzer grenadier division.

They currently operate a Airborne/Special Forces Support division (SF trained by our SAS) and a Phy Ops, and Nation Building brigade. They have insufficient NATO calibre weapons to arm their entire forces, with the result that the current NATO calibre weapons, get left in theatre, on unit changeovers. Conventional military wisdom dictates all fighting troops carry their own personal weapon, calibrated by user at all times.

Their choppers are not allowed to operate after dark, due to H & S legislation, to whit the pilots and crew must have eight hours unbroken sleep, no German helicopters have night vision goggles either.

German soldiers got sent home, about fifteen of them, for daubing "*unacceptable word*" regalia on their vehicles: the "*unacceptable word*" regalia concerned was a palm tree, with the current German eagle stencilled in the middle. Based on what are universally regarded as a first class formation, held in great respect by everyone including the Poles, the Afrika Korps insignia, but without the Swastika. another German formation had its unit name, and armband taken off it, because it was a *unacceptable word* unit. Its name JG71 Moelders. Again another opponent held in very high regard by all its enemies..

You couldn't make it up, as they say in the Sun.

did you know the highest rank in the Bundeswehr is a four star general? In every other country in NATO/EU, including Eire, Cyprus and Iceland, its a five star/field marshall.

And technically, the only German units under national command are the Landwehr, their equivalent of our TA. all other units are in theory under SACEUR command.

Surely a weak German military is a good thing? Given how the Germans very nearly won in two world wars but for the sacrifice of millions who opposed them. The world is wary of German militarism and Japanese militarism for very good reason.

[Philip Belgrave]

This is all very interesting.blokes, but the argument seems to run strictly in terms of nineteenth century conflict between nation states and nationalities. I'm not at all sure that'll be the way of the future. May I throw another perspective into the mix ?

It has been argued (vide "The Shield of Archilles", Bobbitt, Penguin,2002 plus others eg Nial Ferguson).that all the major conflicts that took place during the twentieth century, 1914-1990 :-that's World Wars I and II,The Bolshevik Revolution, The Spanish Civil War, The Korean War, Vietnam, The Cold War- the lot- was really one single war. This was an ideological conflict to determine which form of government would prevail:- National Fascism, Communism or Ballot-Box Democracy .

What triggered this situation initially was the instability of two major states; Germany and Russia ,where radical forms of government overthrew the established order therein. Both states then attempted to make their systems the dominant arrangement in world affairs, hence the fracas that ensued.

But that era has now concluded with (amazingly and thankfully) democracy on top , for the moment.

[Mr Mosquito]

This is all very interesting.blokes, but the argument seems to run strictly in terms of nineteenth century conflict between nation states and nationalities. I'm not at all sure that'll be the way of the future. May I throw another perspective into the mix ?

It has been argued (vide "The Shield of Archilles", Bobbitt, Penguin,2002 plus others eg Nial Ferguson).that all the major conflicts that took place during the twentieth century, 1914-1990 :-that's World Wars I and II,The Bolshevik Revolution, The Spanish Civil War, The Korean War, Vietnam, The Cold War- the lot- was really one single war. This was an ideological conflict to determine which form of government would prevail:- National Fascism, Communism or Ballot-Box Democracy .

What triggered this situation initially was the instability of two major states; Germany and Russia ,where radical forms of government overthrew the established order therein. Both states then attempted to make their systems the dominant arrangement in world affairs, hence the fracas that ensued.

But that era has now concluded with (amazingly and thankfully) democracy on top , for the moment.

You mean a war between various economic systems? Communism - Russia, North Korea; Capitalism - the USA and UK; and distorted Capitalism - *unacceptable word* Germany. The Russians, UK, USA and Germany have all tried to force their own brand of economic systems on the world with varying degrees of success.

[bucksred]

Surely a weak German military is a good thing? Given how the Germans very nearly won in two world wars but for the sacrifice of millions who opposed them. The world is wary of German militarism and Japanese militarism for very good reason.

Correct, which is why your view of a resurgant Germany is wrong. They will pose no threat of any kind for the forseeable future, unless Russia (Whom the ruling Socialists, the SPD, have a close relationship) or France, (who the the civil service have a close relationship) decide to stir things up. either way the only muscle Germany will provide is industrial, provided their sclerotic social welfare system, doesn't make it unviable to maintain, which currently looks pretty likely.

Germany is a busted flush, and with an ageing and shrinking population (Currently the average German is being born at a ratio of 0.9, to 1.3 or so dying) they really aint a significant player. They only have four of five world class corporate conglomorates (VW being the largest, BASF, Rheinstahl, and Krupp. most others have been taken over/brought out, or have significant foreign investments which cant be used.

[Philip Belgrave]

You mean a war between various economic systems? Communism - Russia, North Korea; Capitalism - the USA and UK; and distorted Capitalism - *unacceptable word* Germany. The Russians, UK, USA and Germany have all tried to force their own brand of economic systems on the world with varying degrees of success.

I don't think that you can divorce political systems from economic set-ups. Indeed, in the nineteeth century the science of "Economics" (actually, I think that it's a Black Art) was actually termed "Political Economy".