I know you like a bit of stats, and were discussing our approach...
Boris said yesterday we are 4 weeks behind Italy and he hopes 13 weeks from the peak. On current trends we are only 2 weeks behind Italy but putting that to one side, I think the Government is judging that other countries have gone 'too early' and still have much much further to go. If Italy carry on their current growth trends for a further 9 weeks...well, its a scary thought. The aim seems to be that however much we try, we are all likely to end up getting it sooner rather than later, so best we try and 'flatten the curve'.
Equally, there seems to a view that whilst shutting everything down will slow the thing, sooner or later the moment you relax, bam, it will be off and running again until we have built up some herd immunity (by basically enough of us having caught it). We clearly cannot shut down everything for ever.
I am not sure we have it right...buying time is really precious right now. It might be Italy slow it right down and it explodes there again next winter and by then we are much better positioned. Equally, if a vaccine has been developed we will look a bit careless, to put it mildly.
I think that is football done for this season either way. If the peak is 13 weeks away, and we are therefore curve wise back to where we are now in 26 weeks, no way are we in a better position three weeks away than we are now.