ExiledAjax

Are you trying to look at expected penalties or are you trying to look at ratios of actual penalties versus shots, shots on target etc? If you want an xP metric in the mould of xG or xT then you need to first work out what causes penalties to occur, and then measure that. xG works because shots lead directly to goals* and crucially are always attempting to become goals. It's clear what you need to measure, and you can use the record of results from millions of shots to predict the likelihood of any type of future shot becoming a goal. To do the same for penalties is far more complicated. There's a subjective human element - the referees - plus a far broader range of actions that result in a penalty. You'd have to account for all the various types of foul that can occur, and also for each referee's likelihood of awarding it. You'd have to account for VAR. You have to account for all of these things in all the different areas of the box. By all means give it a go but it's a big ask even for someone like Opta or Prozone to do all of that. The other way though, ratios of shots etc to penalties awarded. That's easier as those numbers are out there for probably the last 20 seasons or so. @Olé made a good start on that in the big thread we had going on our own penalty quirks recently. Probably best to find that again and buil from there. *a tiny number of goals do occur without a shot, but it's a negligible number.

Yeh he'd call it a draw. FWIW xG values varied a fair bit last night. Infogol gave it as 1.99 v 1.05 to Norwich, so they saw Norwich as having clearly the better chances. FotMob gave it as 1.7 v 1.5. so the same differential as E361, but +0.3 to each team. The other source I use, which I am perennially reviewing my use of, gave it as 1.5 v 1.7. so they actually saw us as being on top. Overall the average I have from 4 sources is 1.65 for Norwich to 1.35 for us. So a differential of 0.3. Close enough as to be unclear that either side generated a better aggregate chance of scoring than the other.

Mad feeling being the team making the bums squeak.

He knows his stuff as well. Reads the game like a book more often than not. Seems to have a good rapport with Toby as well. He's easily the best co-comms we get on RobinsTV.

Hahahaha. We'd have had a penalty had Semenyo not scored. Antoine's involved in the conspiracy as well clearly.

Absolutely class just now wasn't he. Wriggles away, then pings the ball across the pitch to glue itself to Dasilva's foot.

Hot take: Alex Scott is a good football player.

Bright first minute. Here we bloody go!

The personification of the forum.

A first half performance teleported out of last season. Decent going forward, let down by silly errors.

Really should have one back there.

RobinsTV has lost the audio from the ground. That is they've lost the feed. Presume there's some issues at Carrow Road that might be affecting all types of broadcast.

Ah ****. You could see they've been pouncing on those little errors that we've gotten away with in our other games. They'll take them.

More pressing than a cider farm.

Impeccable. Well done to all who are there. Shame that couldn't happen at AG - due to the postponement. Not suggesting our fans wouldn't be just as respectful.

RobinsTV has a studio now!?!? No more cupboard under the stairs. Ps. Delighted to see Brian alive and well.

Popped onto the OS to check some fixtures. For a split second I thought Tins had died. Was braced for another Bank Holiday next week.

What a tune.

Yes Ipswich clearly yet another team who play the wrong type of football.

If they end in a shot yes. If you're just taking the ball into the box, wandering around with it, then losing possession, then not so much. Shots to Box entry ratio would be what you need. Exactly, no point going in, out, in, out, in out, and never getting your shot off.

I agree. Check back with me on Saturday. I wholeheartedly agree with you by the way. However I have been told, by a source I trust, that this is what is happening.

Away kit v Norwich. 3rd kit v Burnley.

I suspect it would need sanctioning by FIFA, which wouldn't happen. There's likely some sort of commercial agreement between the FA/PL/EFL/FIFA that those weeks will be for WC games only and no one else can play football. Wouldn't want the EFL (and it's sponsors) taking viewers away from the glorious world cup of Qatar (and it's sponsors) now would we. Money > sense.

We don't play a game between 12 Nov and 10 Dec due to the world cup. I know they won't reschedule to those weeks, but there are free days. We'd be without Semenyo. I don't think PNE have a single player who is likely to be in Qatar...maybe Olussunde for USA, but he's only got one cap from 2018 so it seems unlikely.