Davefevs

For info, the reason i collate the info this way is to avoid the way sites like transfermarkt give someone coming on in the last minute of a game won a 3 points in their PPG calculation. In the same vain Andy King would get 1 pt as would Antoine Semenyo yesterday, when the game states changes in a polar opposite way. Caveat: 6 games only. Over a full season you can see some trends, but I wouldn’t be basing team selection on it for example.

Here is each sub that has come on this season (league): From a pure 1s and 0s the last 3 columns are the ones you’re after, but of course they don’t tell us anything tactically or about individual performance. Pts +/- reflect the change in game-state from the point they entered the pitch to the point they leave (often full-time). A player like Antoine came on yesterday at 1-2 (L) but end result was 3-3 (D), so we scored 2 (GFOP) and conceded 1 (GAOP), but importantly we went from getting 0 pts (losing) to 1 pt (draw) so Antoine gets +1. Youll see most subs don’t change the game-state, but overall our subs have had a slightly negative affect. But can you legislate for a pass from Naismith like yesterday?

For info here is where we score / concede (all comps): Haven’t got yesterdays data yet, but re taking big chances (XG > 0.3) we are doing pretty well, ie we take most of them.

From a few posts on here from those with a bit of ITK it appears the players aspiration is higher than “just” mid table. Conway confirmed this in the week I think.

Okay…my simple summary, Nige could use his subs better, I’d use our subs differently. Today is a mix. I only saw last 10 mins of first half and got to say I wasn’t really in an analytical mode watching the second half either, so I really missed the nuances of what happened. But h-t sub of Massengo for James at 1-1, then Semenyo for Scott at 1-2, we find ourselves 3-2 up. So some positive reaction to at least one sub today, maybe two. But then the third sub of King for Conway with 2 minutes left sees the final score of 3-3. I thought we’d really use Wilson and Tanner / Dasilva and Pring extensively as sub / intensity options (with new 5 sub rule), but that hasn’t happened so far. For me that would be a good question for the media to ask, if not somewhat brave question. If asked in the right way, Nige might give us a really full answer. But we are 6 games in, Wilson missed the end of pre-season, Pring much of it. So it’s possible that has impacted things.

I think by the end of this season we will see a “changing of the guard” or more a “changing of the old guard” in the midfield and attack. That’s not being dismissive of their ability, more a compliment at how they’ve helped evolve / develop the youngsters so quickly. They created and conceded lots of chances. At some point the worm will turn and there will be lots of chances taken.

Rattus is a great album. Looks like I’m a whipper-snapper, but my elder cousin was a big Stranglers fan, and when we used to visit, we’d be welcomed into his bedroom with a big poster of a Raven. The Stranglers were the first proper band I saw gig…in Newport, supported by Joe Strummer! My cousin was the one who got me into Bowie too.

Encouraging XG (if not XG against)…plus we don’t get any XG for Ekpiteta, which had it been been would’ve be at least another 0.5!!! Much as the game was too open today, if the opposition want to play open, it’s hard for a “middling” team like us to force them to change.

From memory, we did have someone on the edge, Weimann, but he switched off. Happy to be corrected, it’s a few weeks ago.

Yeah, what I’m saying is Naismith then pings it, 30 seconds as they retrieve itplus the 3 seconds from King! ???

I’m 52, Clash well in my era, I quite like them, just don’t think London’s Calling LP is the best ever album as most officianados (and my mates) think! ?

One pass back from King, is another few seconds of time wasted. It’s what they do. What KN did next is the problem.

Just seen it again and was thinking exactly the same…try and beat me on the angle.

He’s not. I missed the opening 35 minutes today….and the sun / brightness made watching the second half on Robinstv not easy, so not a game I can readily analyse. Where / who did Madine peel onto, Vyner or Naismith…or straight down the middle (or even all three)?

Here’s a summary of 6 league games so far: It shows how many goals we concede (GAOP) / score (GFOP)whilst each player is on the pitch, then aggregates this per 90 mins (GF / GA p90)….the green and reds. Then the blues and oranges represent the game-state / points each player has had, plus a per 90 too. Don’t get me wrong we’ve dropped some points late in games, but I’m not sure how much we critique ourselves. Kane Wilson’s numbers are “negative” too, so is he a good option off the bench? Was bringing Klose on at CB3 and moving Naismith to LCB3 v Wigan the right thing, as many suggested that’s exactly what we should do. Today was a cock-up by Naismith. Individual errors like this affect us. Lets not read too much into my data above or an early season 6 game sample either. All things being equal it’s a decent point, an up and down performance, but we are sat in 9th position, on 8 points, with a positive goal difference and unbeaten in 4 league games and 6 overall. Plus Antoine is back.

Did we really become slow and lethargic from the moment King came on in the 88th minute? Or were were a bit slow and lethargic in the period before? That’s some influence if so!

Being a man of numbers…how do you really square off these things. It always sits a bit funny with me about the legitimacy of this type of scoring things. Do you take our couple of 2-0s and say we won from drawing positions? Do you only count results when they change, when you go ahead? Do we get credit for being ahead 1-0 in both and going on to secure another goal / 3 points in each. Do we take today and see that we came from behind twice 0-1, 1-2? In a sport where the result can flip-flop within the 90m I find these things can highlight things with an excessive slant one way or the other. Its why when I do my player “stuff” I take the game-state when they enter the pitch and when the exit it.

You are creating a big assumption there Spud.

This, Corbeanu had all the momentum. Terrible pass from Naismith.

A replica of his first two goals for Bath City! Gets across his man. I’m a massive Conway fan but 5 goals and 2 assists from 5 starts and 3 subs is a helluva start.

I see Madine in, as I suggested. It won’t line up like current bbc website.

Watching Sunderland v Norwich. Sunderland right at it, Norwich very ordinary. Think Sunderland will get a bit sussed in time, huge gaps behind Gooch and Clarke.

So, what are City up against today? Imho a decent “team”, not packed with stars, but a team that has evolved under Critchley initially, now Appleton. The obvious star is Josh Bowler. Please can someone turn his head with a transfer offer before 2pm today. Second please, don’t show him inside (from right side) onto his left foot. Ekpiteta (Heck Potato) is a very good CB, Dougall a very competent and combative (he’s an Aussie) CM and Yates will work his nuts off up top. Its quite possible Appleton might fancy Gary Madine up-top for this one, he seems to enjoy playing against us. Sonny Carey is suspended, his appeal against the red card on Maatsen last week was dismissed. Their playing style may well depend on how we decide the press their keeper and CBs. Last season: - at home, we were very structured in our press, so that when their keeper had to go long we were in nicd compact shape to retrieve balls (a bit like Cardiff last season). - away, we were pressing in a harum-scarem way and pressers were getting picked off and although Pool went long we are strung out and it was too open. If we take the learnings from early games this season for me the tactic is two fold: dead balls (goal-kicks or free-kicks in their box) press the CBs not the keeper open play drop into a deeper block and block passing lanes As per usual down to our players to play well, if they do, a good chance of returning with our recent unbeaten run intact.

Cotterill, Wilbraham, Nurse, Bennett and Moore.

Firstly, transfer profit is at least £13m (£16.5m minus £3.5m initially paid), I’ve not bothered bringing amortisation into the equation. So it ? boosts P&L for this season. Secondly, you don’t get all of your PP money on July 1st, so Watford may well have a Cashflow issue, that they’d rather not have to solve by getting a secured loan from football’s favourite bank - Macquarie Bank. No doubt that doesn’t come cheap. So, they generate £x million of cash by transferring a player out, getting some cash in, and then getting the player back on loan for at least this season. Voila! Cashflow sorted, nice juicy amount in the transfer profit figures…and they still get access to the player. Wrong, plain wrong.