Davefevs

Really informative article. Ta

Please see my edit above.....I give up ???

It’s not trust per se, it’s what they are being used to falsely promote....namely Hancock’s self back-slapping. Against the targets he has set, he has actually failed every day. It is only by changing the method of calculation 2 days before the target date that he achieved his arbitrary target. He then lied and said the method of calculation had always been that and smugly told the journo to look on gov.uk. Well, guess what? I read the various testing strategy and data docs (and the previous versions), and it makes no mention of including postal tests. He lied....and praised himself in the process. on the 1st May when he falsely claimed he’d hit his 100k, had he come clean and said it was 80k, I’d have accepted it as a good effort to ramp up....it wasn’t an easy task. But he lost (more) credibility from his actions. Eff me....spoke too soon about trusting the numbers ??? ???

Was only thinking about that the other night. It is understood / rumoured (?) that both Leeds and West Brom want to continue.

Gov.uk website.... https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public you didn’t think I was being creative did you? ?

as long as all parties are in agreement.

The numbers aren’t worth the websites they are shown on, or the press briefings they are mentioned at. The 177k “tests” comprised: 80k tests posted out (so not even with the recipient yet) 23k pillar 4 tests, eg. Random tests for behavioural / science purposes Even that doesn’t mean there were 74k tests processed the previous day, because the “people tested” isn’t broken down like that. Yesterday was one of the lowest numbers of “people tested” (60k) since the big back-slapping fudged 100k tests were achieved. The day before, the day the “people tested” was unavailable due to a technical issue (really???), was the lowest - 48k!!! It has taken several days of tracking the numbers to understand the true profile of the relationship between “tests” and “people tested”, especially in pillar 2. And it’s fair to say there isn’t one!!! From the published data, there is no way of telling how many people requesting a test because they think they have symptoms, are actually sending the test back and being processed by the lab. The data published on Sunday showed: more “people tested” than the actual “tests” (minus those posted out!) we know there are tests counted that fail we know there are multiple tests per oerson so we know the “people tested” includes tests previously posted out and returned. We don’t know how many. But looking at the figures each day, it is not a very high percentage that are being returned! That is a waste of sending testing kits out. The cynical person might think kits are being send out just to boost the numbers??? Why was there sudden increase in on average 25k posted kits per day to 80k. A big mail shot has gone out to get them near the new arbitrary 200k per day. Can’t wait to see the “number of posted tests” today. The posted tests are meant to be for people who think they have covid symptoms or live with someone who think they have it. So 55k more people yesterday thought they needed a test? If it’s not a mail shot, then I’d be really worried a lot more people think they have caught covid....and the government should be really worried that it’s spreading. But going back to my initial sentence, the numbers are Propaganda.

Looks like Grandmaster Flash and Melle Mel over at Derby wants the season voided.....despite being in the playoff hunt in his opinion. Looks like the FFP police are calling round again and with Reading, Sheffield Wed and Derby in their sights, the current bottom three are pushing for points deduction!!

I think you’re onto something here. I’m not sure of the legalities, nor have I read the Abraham and Deeney stories in any detail other than the basic premise that they have family health concerns. As a minimum I think the clubs have to treat them as “unavailable” to allow the rest of the squad to continue. Things happen. Look at Benik, he’d have been given time to himself when his daughter tragically passed away (RIP Amora). So Watford and Chelsea can treat their cases a bit like compassionate leave....if that means pay them in full, so be it. If the player is truly worried (no reason to doubt that) then they’d not be in the best place mentally to train and play anyway. This isn’t about individual nuances, it’s about the team and the league. An individual can’t stop the club playing.

so, if it can't be shoe-horned, end it now....how would you decide final league placings?

If by scrapping, you mean null and void, expunging records, etc, I’m with you...that imho is the last of last resorts. As above, the season can be “ended” and lots of options available from: - ppg, etc - no relegation (or promotion) - and variations of the above to determine final placings. Unless we can finish by end of July, I’d “end” it now. Even if we do start again say mid-June, the EFL must (in my opinion) at least decide what rules they are going to use if it has to stop again, because there is a real chance it might need to stop. I’d probably end it now, and focus on preparing for next season. That is a different view to what I had 2 months ago, but things have changed.

I got to do one of the random tests today. Not as bad as I thought. Makes you gag a bit.

Sorry I wasn’t clear. I meant club to club performance related add-ons, e.g. Brighton paid us £100k because Webster played 10 games. I made that up, but I can’t see City having to pay that back. Does that make sense?

There’s a null and void from a “records” perspective, and there’s a null and void from a contractual / legal perspective. I don’t know the answer, but I cannot believe a club would claim back a performance related add-on just because records expunged. But who knows, I could easily be wrong. ?

That story was “blown up” out of all proportion ?

The Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Mönchengladbach match had some strong tackles, and a few late studs over the top. I think we saw less fuss being made, less haranguing of the referee....thus making it seem a bit played down.

We do have stats for recoveries....but hospital recoveries only. Whitty and Vallance suggested in the past week that they ought to be published....but we haven’t seen any.

Not arguing your point as I haven’t looked at age related figures, but on a separate issue in the case of people carrying Covid: 0.27% of people on average are carrying the virus at any one point (see yellow bubble below), broken down into 0.22% of people in households 1.37% of people in care jobs Basically you’re 6 times as likely to be carrying the virus if you’re in a care role. That may sound obvious, e.g. you’re more at risk, but then add in you’re supposed to have PPE, processes to extra clean, vigilant etc, it doesn’t look great.

I’m pretty much resigned to City missing out if games don’t restart, because none of the PPG methods work for us, however.... ....Peter Loehman, a Danish, Sheffield Wed fan, who I follow on Twitter has come up with another method. His method is less about finishing the remaining 100+ games and buying some time to complete a new form of playoffs. Ultimately, he proposes more of an elimination type playoff, where we get a one off chance away to Forest. if we win that we’d go into a 2 legged play off. It basically gives clubs down to 8th (in Peter’s model we fall below Millwall based on the strength of our remaining fixtures) a chance. Ditto for the clubs in relegation battle. It basically requires 14 matches to be played, instead of the 113.

Yes. Approx a 1/5th of season ticket income (approx £3.0-3.5m).

£700k was my estimate of City’s refund.

Ditto, for antibody tests too

Utopia capacity is circa 120k I believe. Say there are 100 testing centres all with capacity for 1000 per day (just for the maths purposes), plus say 20k being posted, totals 120k. They might post 20k every day, but getting 1000 people through each centre every day is not likely, meaning capacity should probably be set at a lower figure. You’ve then got to get the tests processed. That also seems to be an issue, hence why 50k got sent to the US. I have no probs with this, just be transparent that the labs are overwhelmed. In an ideal world, they would be better metrics (the current set are not “world leading” as alleged). You’d see granularity such as: no of tested posted out / no of posted tests returned / no of tests returned processed by lab / no of positive / no of negative results (from all of this you’d see success rates, lag from post, lag from lab) no of tests at tests centres / no of tests processed by lab / no of positive / no of negative ditto at hospital ditto at care home all of the above broken down by number / people / date Presently the data presented to us mere mortals is unintelligible. Today 120k tests / 70k people are not necessarily linked. Imho it’s data being presented to mask what is really going on, to avoid real scrutiny and therefore accountability. We’ve no idea how many postal tests have been returned for example. If that’s public apathy to return it, then call out the public, not the government. If it’s because the lab is full, then call that out, or at least explain. As a Business Analysis the common requirements given to me by the business are - “I want lots of MI”. That’s why we have what we have today, because nobody has asked, what do we want to measure, how often, who wants it, for what purpose, etc etc.

Ta, thought it was harsh otherwise. ??????

I thought it was stated last night that you couldn’t travel to other parts of the UK, ruling out England to Wales or vice-versa?