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Olé

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Posts posted by Olé

  1. 35 minutes ago, Bouncearoundtheground said:

    Believe it or not, it is the first day of filming today for a new season of Sunderland Till I Die

    This news has obviously got out as Charlie "turn the music up" Methven is 6/4 favourite to be new manager with Skybet.

    image.png.35c259766e7fb090dcfece66a8671d32.png

    • Haha 4
  2. 4 hours ago, Selred said:

    The football bus isn't running tomorrow. The best bet is the number 32 bus, to the Hourglass pub (5 mins walk from there).

    Where have you seen it's not running? Thought it ran 1750 and 1850 on midweek matchdays? 

    The trouble with the 32 is the last one back is 21:23 so there will be none running after the game is over.

    In the Tammy Abraham season got lucky with a taxi after 10 minutes walking back but don't want to rely on that.

  3. 1 hour ago, BCFC101 said:

    I wonder if in the absence of a stat for box entries we could look at how many of those shots from the box have come directly from crosses (what would be even better is if there was a stat for how many of those shots were on first contact by the player that took the shot).

    I used FBRef mostly plus WhoScored (WhoScored more so for the shots data). WhoScored uses Opta which has a measure of "Key Passes" but that's any pass which led to a shot, so it's not much different to what I had. They do also have a number for crosses (which is a subset of Key Passes) so in theory it would be possible to measure proportion of key passes that are crosses to help  answer your question.

    Some simple maths for this season and the prior two (from 2020) as follows:

    • 2022/23 - City 6th for crosses as a proportion of key passes; City joint last (0) no penalties awarded = SOME correlation between use of crosses and lack of penalties (but small dataset) 
    • 2021/22 - City 6th for crosses as a proportion of key passes, City joint last (21st) for penalties awarded = HIGH correlation between use of crosses and lack of penalties
    • 2020/21 - City 21st for crosses as a proportion of key passes, City joint last (23rd) for penalties awarded = NO correlation between use of crosses and lack of penalties

    Further:

    • 2022/23 - Reading 1st for crosses as a proportion of key passes; and first (1) with a penalty awarded = NO correlation between use of crosses and lack of penalties (but small dataset) 
    • 2021/22 - Cardiff 1st for crosses as a proportion of key passes, and joint last (21st) for penalties awarded = HIGH correlation between use of crosses and lack of penalties
    • 2020/21 - Stoke 1st for crosses as a proportion of key passes, and joint last (23rd) for penalties awarded = HIGH correlation between use of crosses and lack of penalties

    So @BCFC101- if you exclude current season for being too small a dataset (teams with 1 or 0 penalties) then over the prior two seasons in the examples above 3 out of 4 show a clear correlation with dependency on crosses and lack of penalties, and the exception (City in 2020/21) has a known explanation, which is that we were the most limited attacking team in the division (24th/24 on shots, all time record league low).

    Sadly I don't think this is a slam dunk for you though: 21/22 2nd for dependency on crosses Millwall, 8th for penalties awarded; 3rd for dependency on crosses West Brom, 1st for penalties awarded --- 20/21 2nd for dependency on crosses Birmingham, 13th for penalties awarded; 3rd for dependency on crosses Rotherham, 5th for penalties awarded!! In this group the teams relying on crosses seem to do rather well, sorry!

     

    • Thanks 2
  4. 50 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

    One team I'd look at here are Huddersfield.

    While you're busy looking at teams (you must miss the beach!!) have a look at Forest, Blackburn, and of course Preston.

    Until Forest's promotion season we could reasonably say all these teams (and ourselves) were lower mid table also rans.

    Yet to the extent that a) propensity for being fouled + b) taking shots in the box MIGHT have some link to penalty awards:

    Isn't it odd we're consistently awarded below our ranking on those factors, while those 3 are consistently over their rank.

    Preston's case in 19/20 was widely remarked on (@GrahamC called it out - they even had 2 against us up there in 2019).

    #1 for penalties awarded 19/20 when only 16th most fouled and average attack. 5th most in 20/21 while tamest for both!

    It's bizarre. No conspiracy, but just a good (literally) old fashioned question: do wholesome, historic clubs get more love?

     

    368104821_Screenshot2022-08-18at16_46_18.thumb.png.4583429907e1e2120d253febf39b690c.png

    58394896_Screenshot2022-08-18at16_45_56.thumb.png.591dd7517794e31289537771b7c23931.png

    • Like 2
  5. 4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

    What about the previous 87 matches?

    What about on a seasonal basis?

    So far we've got a hypothesis, and some data that shows it merits investigation, but it's no more than that atm.

    That was my reaction at about 3am today during my daily period of insomnia. The first question in my head was what other data points could serve as a control for this level of anomaly.

     

    Not 100% reliable but I decided that a) the level of fouls sustained on the pitch and b) the level of activity performed in the box, should have some correlation to level of penalty awards.

    On a) this number is available, on b) I looked for box entries data (shout out LJ!) but couldn't find it so settled for shots taken in the 18 or 6 yard boxes (regardless of whether on target). 

    This data shows little correlation for Bristol City's level of penalty awards - City are far from the least fouled team in the division and bar one season, far from least attacking team either.

    Without this correlation, the hypothesis holds: something else is distinguishing City on penalty awards. Your point about "which refs" is fair, but over a large sample that should even out.

     

    So what is driving City to be so badly off in such a specific category - penalty awards - when City's league ranking in related statistics don't correspond. And why for such a long period?

    You asked about beyond the previous 87 matches (perception of Pezza's "since November 2020" stat), well that view does still bare out the trend. We can go back to the start of 18-19.

    In every season since then, City has been awarded the lowest or second lowest number of penalties in the division, with the highest games / penalty ratio (more than double most clubs).

    Only once - shots in the area in 20/21 - does any of City's rankings in related statistics fall as low as our ranking consistently lands on penalties awarded. No other team has this pattern.

    And this is now on a much larger sample of data (5 seasons, one in progress). Consistently worse than City's ranking over that period for being fouled, or (in most cases) shots in the box. 

     

    Finally, the focus on 2020 onwards is because the trend has become even more pronounced (and ridiculous), and something else in that period has too - penalties awarded against City. 

    Since the start of 20-21, as well as having this extraordinary outlier on lowest number of penalties awarded, we are simultaneously top 3 for having the most penalties given against us.

    This is a curious twist given the level at which City are fouled, or have fouled, in the same period, is pretty average - with City more fouled than fouling anywhere elsewhere on the pitch.

    How have we managed to reach two highly polarised extremes of penalty decision making when related statistics show no such extremes - and what (or who!) links those two decisions?

    ?

     

    Here's the analysis, over to you @ExiledAjax :

    Since 2020 - Penalties Awarded, Penalties Conceded vs Fouls

    Faa9QvUXwAAsycM.thumb.jpeg.2d3166dee88014d546151b5795690a55.jpeg

     

    Since 2018 - Penalties Awarded vs Fouls, Shots in the Area

    Faa_FoGXkAESckl.thumb.jpeg.3d58e6e4182232b7502c2aacde845e08.jpeg

    • Like 6
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    • Flames 2
  6. I'll tell you what the 50p increase is NOT for:

    - The cost of postage, which did increase in April but is 77p (City send tickets 1st class UNG via a business account, printing the barcode on the envelope):

           image.thumb.png.4ce4f4e02aa6fa534d756e51d9ceddce.png

    - The cost of booking which is covered by the £1 booking fee

    - The cost of printing the ticket, the envelope or putting the ticket in the envelope which is also performed for people who collect tickets in person for free

    - The cost of staff, for whom a person collecting in person will require 3-5 minutes of dedicated attention (£1 on a £25k salary), whereas posting is a fraction of the time as part of a bulk daily mail run

    - The cost of Royal Mail picking up the post, as I'm pretty sure City do enough business with Royal Mail each year to get this for free (if not its £800 a year)

     

    You'll have to make your own mind up what the 50p increase is actually for, probably a way to cover general administrative cost increases and yes, a bit more margin too.

    Which raises the question why people who don't live locally and/or need to have tickets posted have to disproportionately subsidise City's entire ticketing administration.

    The same could have been achieved by leaving postage at £1 (more than the cost of postage) and introducing a 50p collection fee (less than salary costs of collections).

     

    • Like 1
  7. Only three games in and there is a clear and repeated formula for City's stuttering start to the new Championship season. Come out  convincingly, get in behind the opposition on both flanks with quick combinations, race in front and look comfortable and in control for a period, then by half time lose composure, sink deeper, surrender midfield and end up clinging on desperately for even a point. 

    At promoted Wigan's DW stadium it was the same story and against limited opposition - in fact despite a dominant opening led by summer signing Mark Sykes and capitalised by Andi Weimann's fourth goal from Tommy Conway's centre, in the end this looked like two teams that will struggle as this level as City clung on grimly both up to Will Keane's equaliser and the hosts one sided finish.

    It was Nigel Pearson's men that looked by far the better from the outset and in the first minute Jay DaSilva was sent away in acres of space on the left, seemingly tripped in the box but managing to stay upright only to put the ball out for a goal kick. It was typical of counter attacking visitors that had come out of the blocks flying and were linking up well out of midfield to pin back their hosts.

    Just past five minutes City roared in front. Sykes stole the ball off his opponent on the right and after a quick exchange released Conway clear down the right who strode in on goal before squaring intelligently to meet Weimann's late run, the irrepressible striker smashing past the keeper and into the top corner from close range. 4 games 4 goals - last seasons' heroics now far from a one off.

    After 12 minutes another transition as City stole the ball back off a throw in on the right and Conway again danced into the box only for a defender to lean in and send him to the ground, no penalty given. Five minutes later an even greater controversy as Joe Bennett aimed a kick at Joe Williams while prone on the ground, sending the midfielder flying - a clear and seemingly inevitable red card.

    Yet the referee looked uncertain, then took an age to wave away players and consult his linesman before producing only a yellow card - a remarkable conclusion from match officials operating in the 6th biggest league in the world and yet somehow concluding of the incident not that they *hadn't* seen the offence, but that they had and decided off the ball violent conduct isn't a sending off.

    Buoyed by their lucky break Wigan started to threaten with balls into the channels over Rob Atkinson on the left of City's back three.  Inside half an hour Zak Vyner slipped as last man tracking Magennis run but was able to recover and get the ball clear.  Minutes later Bennett got inside Williams on Wigan's left to sweep the ball across the box for Callum Lang to steer past Bentley but also the far post.

    City could have been further in front before half time with another rapid transition - as a stunning curling deep ball lifted down the right wing put that man Sykes clear and his early centre was collected brilliantly in stride by Conway who drew the keeper and poked the ball inside but off the near post. In injury time Magennis slipped clear on goal for the first time but stabbed his shot wide of goal.

    As with City's other Championship games this season, the second 45 minutes was a completely different contest, Pearson's side second best, on the back foot and unable to unlock the same combinations that served them well early on. On 55 a deep right wing free kick after a trip on Conway was skewed into the air by Atkinson and Alex Scott was at his combative best to prevent the break.

    After the hour Weimann wriggled away on the left to the byline to lift a dangerous ball across the six yard box which was cleared and spun to DaSilva on the edge of the box but the wingback was caught in possession. At the other end Magennis spun clear on the  halfway line forcing defender Atkinson into a tactical challenge, the centre back booked, sustaining a knock and replaced by Klose. 

    Wigan were growing in confidence and after 66 minutes raced into space down the left, City's star man Sykes matching the runner and forcing the ball out of play for a corner. But from the set piece pinball in the visitors box, the away side unable to clear their lines and the inevitable equaliser arrived as Will Keane eventually converted low into the far corner to seal a period of home pressure.

    Against the run of play and City should have gone back in front immediately. Scott turned his counterparts in midfield and spread wide to that man Sykes running free on the right and with his first touch he looped an early cross into the box which Conway stole in at the near post to head home easily, only to agonnisingly nod down and the wrong side of the post from l yards out, a painful miss.  

    City, for whom coach Jason Euell appeared more and more agitated on the touchline as the game appeared to be going away from his side, replaced the striker and Scott for Nahki Wells and Andy King. With just over 15 minutes left Klose hauled down Lang and from Power's free kick into the box Keane steered well over the bar from close range although the flag was up for offside. 

    It was now a grim finale, all Wigan and King amongst the worst culprits for giving the ball away over and over with aimless punts to no particular person upfield. By now City faced all out assault and with ten left Bentley had to beat a Lang shot away at his left post as the Latics forward turned in the box. There was no outlet as Pearson's men struggled to build any attack and defended desperately. 

    Despite this City actually contrived chances either side of the 90th minute - first a break from a long ball to their frontmen, Weimann linking up with Wells who turned a defender and saw his shot blocked behind. Then top scorer Weimann brought a high ball down and released DaSilva who got to the edge of  the box only to play a tame ball across the D that was easily cut out as City pushed up.

    Before the end of 7 minutes injury time the careless wing back seemed to rob the ball off his opponent deep in his own half only to give it away immediately, Wigan into the box to force Bentley to half push away the first attempt, James McClean steering his follow up shot over from the right. This was now a case of City clinging on desperately for their first point against a side that will struggle.

    That does not bode at all well, and just like last season, despite having no problem with scoring goals, their propensity to surrender an advantage and apparently lose ability to compete in the second half, and up against three of the less fancied sides in the league, suggests a much harder campaign than the pre season mood suggested. Mark Sykes at least is the bright spark - a total revalation. 

     

    Bentley 6 some good saves some awful distribution

    Atkinson 6 they found it easy to draw him and knock balls over the top

    Naismith 6 miscued passes out from back

    Vyner 6 made mistakes but recovered from them, probably pick of back three

    DaSilva 5 every game this season he wastes opportunities going forward

    Sykes 8 by far out best player with and without the ball

    Williams 6 started well faded badly 

    Scott 5 almost completely bypassed

    Weimann 7 led the press caused problems and kept going until the end

    Conway 7 did not look out of place and carried a real threat 

    Martin 5 didn't hold the ball up or offer any threat

     

    Klose 6

    Wells 6

    King 4

    • Like 8
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  8. I had a limited window around work to make it to Coventry and back in the same night. A move to Birmingham would have been okay. Burton is more or less out of the question now.

    I realise they are unconnected but it must be a first that a club's fans has significant complications to their travel on not 1, not 2 but 3 consecutive away fixtures to start the season.

    Given Rotherham (the Ricoh's other victims) was just postponed, and they were at home last week and next, we can lay claim to being the most inconvenienced fans in the country. 

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