pillred

22 minutes ago, Rich said:

Can't be that many that fit the description. It seemed as if he had a larger than average head.

The timing would certainly be right around the early to mid 70s. I remember him as being quite short and stocky he was a real character everybody knew and liked him certainly don't ever remember him getting any racial abuse or trouble from anyone at the rink reckon it must be the same Chalkie.

19 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Just accept that we won’t complete this season until either late summer or the autumn at earliest. And even then it may be played behind closed doors.

Whatever happens, I predict that there will be no League Cup or EFL trophy next season as the priority will be to get through the league fixtures. And even then the 20/21 season may only be half the length of a normal season, so that we only play each team once.

I think you are being unnecessarily pessimistic but we will have to wait and see, can't see a reason why we wont be back to normal in 6 months at the latest. (League wise at least) not so sure about some of the cup competitions if some catching up has to be done.

3 hours ago, Rich said:

Which one was that? I was there in about 72 and it was good fun. Black lad with a big head (chalkie White) as he was known then, was exchanging black insults with some local black lads up on the bank.

Was that the same Chalkie that used to go to the silver blades ice rink? good lad he was and a brilliant skater.

3 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

It shows 113 deaths today.

Yes I can see it now, a little confusing but yes bad, but still I think

not as bad as we were led to believe it would be, any death is one too many, this sort of figure may be around for a little while longer but unless there is a very large increase In the daily numbers no way are tens of thousands going to die.

4 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

It shows 113 deaths today.

4 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

That goes up to yesterday which was 43 deaths.

3 minutes ago, BanburyRed said:

UK deaths above 100 in a day for the first time since the outbreak....

WHERE are you getting that from?

31 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

There may well be a few on here who are negative and pessimistic - no doubt about that.

But most are pragmatic and can see it is going to get bad before it gets better.

I admire your optimism 

I have no doubt that we are not out of the woods yet, but just don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as we have been led to believe, maybe a bit of negative spin doctoring to scare people into behaving themselves?

6 minutes ago, Stortz said:

I would be delighted to apologise if I'm wrong, and I'd certainly be in the exalted company of every epidemiologist,  scientist, doctor and emergency planner on the planet.

Incredible that somebody with such unique knowledge as you should be on otib. What are your medical or scientific qualifications? A Nobel prize at least, I'm presuming?

CSE grade 2 maths and a width kick with float at Beg Brooke primary in 1965 if your asking.

5 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

It may look encouraging and I'll take any positive from this situation.

But the reality is that it is more than likely to go up from here for quite a while if you take into account what the experts are saying. If we have anywhere around 20k fatalities then, in their eyes, that would be a huge relief. Italy and Spain are on their way to those sort of figures and they are a bit in front of us in terms of time. I'm not sure that figures coming out of China are accurate tbh.

The experts seem to think that if this lock down works, and the analysis from the retrospective testing is positive, then the NHS will cope. But, for me, the Chancellors resolution for the self employed will also have a bearing on that. Get it right and the lock down is strengthened, get it wrong and, without legislation to stop hundreds of thousands of people going out to earn money, it could go horribly wrong.

 

20,000 casualties, it will be less than half that unless there is a massive downturn ( by that I mean a lot more cases) I think we have seen if not the worse of it at least the beginning of the end, it may be a bit bad for a week or two more but I'm not of the were doomed brigade which puts me in a minority of one on here so it seems. I'm talking overall deaths not contagion because the number of deaths per contagion is not accurate there are a lot more people who have got it than reported which means the percentage of deaths per contagion is a lot lower than published.

5 hours ago, BanburyRed said:

Not sure what you don't agree with?  That Hospital Nightingale is the new name for ExCel Centre?  Or that it's going to have 4000 beds across 2 wards? Or that it's going to contain a morgue?  Or that maybe we haven't seen anywhere near the number of fatalities from this virus (in your opinion)...?  I suggest if you know more than the doctors, nurses and scientists involved in this, you immediately head up the NHS task force.

An over reaction wait an see before you judge me.

5 hours ago, Stortz said:

Well that's because it hasn't gone down, they've just changed the way they report them:

Yes, I'm sure that you know more than every scientist and emergency planner in the world eh.

Give me strength.

Before you castigate me a week ago the so called experts were talking deaths in the hundreds of thousands (in this country) after at least three weeks into this outbreak we are at less than 500, do you still honestly believe that many are going to die? scientists and so called experts have been wrong too many times to count in the past why should we believe them now? the evidence I see tells me that was a massive over reaction, and as I said to another poster judge me in three weeks I will apologise if I'm wrong will you?

3 hours ago, Redpool said:

Hearing that NHS Nightingale will be fitted with 2 morgues. Very sad but it sounds more like a place to send those who will more than likely lose their life. 4000 beds to be fitted. I don’t think we’ve even scratched the surface yet in terms of deaths in this country.

Don't agree with you, let's hope I'm right and your wrong.

3 hours ago, glos old boy said:

Doubt you will hear that much on the media def not be headline news either....doom mongers rule ok.

Noticed that on Breakfast this morning, if the death toll had gone up by even one over the previous day we would not have heard the end of it but the toll is less than half the previous day and it gets a passing mention, was not surprised though.

Well deaths today (25th) less than half the previous day 41 against 87 let's hope we have seen the worst if so this could turn out to be not as bad as was predicted even only a couple of days ago. I'm keeping my fingers and toes crossed.

7 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

Only issue with that is we still don't know for certain if people who have had it before are definitely immune. There is a small amount of evidence in China that a small proportion of people may test positive again*. In most cases, this is thought to be asymptomatic but may mean people who have had it can still transmit. That would massively complicate things.

*It is also possible that this can be explained by errors in testing. 

From what I have read it was a tiny proportion and even that was open to doubt. I don't think the small chance of that would stop everyday life resuming for those that could prove they were over it.

21 minutes ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

A leading expert in Vaccination stated recently that the earliest we are likely to be vaccinating the general public will be the end of the Summer....2021.

Well if that's the case some difficult questions are going to have to be asked because there is no way normal life can be put on hold that long, what the solution is I have no idea but one will have to be found that may include some kind of compromise such as once you have had it you get an exemption certificate from a doctor from all the restrictions currently in place or something like that.

At what point are we at least going to try to resume normal life, this can't go on indefinitely, at the moment everyone (well most) are sticking to the rules and are very understanding but there will come a time I think when a decision will have to be made about resuming daily life, a vaccine is months away how many would be happy to still be in this situation then.

2 hours ago, Northern Red said:

A friend of mine works in sales for a large dealership group, all showrooms closed as of yesterday but servicing and MOT still open as they're classed as essential.

I've got an MOT booked in next week and as far as I'm aware it's still happening.

Not sure why the Government have given a 6 month extension if that's the case if you can get yours done as normal, oh well I suppose it will help keep people off the roads going for MOTs.

Are car dealerships open for servicing? my car is due it's annual service soon and is still under warranty if it's not done the warranty becomes void, would driving your car to the garage be allowed it's 15 miles from my house?

3 minutes ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

Of course other countries such as those I mentioned (Italy, Spain, Germany and France) will have tested more people, the virus manifested itself much sooner.

My point is that our &age recovery rate is much, much lower - we had our first fatality on 7 March.

There do seem to be some strange anomalies Germanys very low death rate % wise, and as you say our recovery rate, puzzling to say the least.

26 minutes ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

Somebody - and I forget who, for which I apologise - posted this link earlier:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Now, the link is constantly updated, but, at the time of posting, I note the following figures (ranked by number of cases):

Italy: 69,176 cases/6,820 deaths - 9.86%

Spain: 39,676 cases/2,800 deaths - 7.06% 

Germany: 32,781 cases/157 deaths - 0.48%

France: 22,616 cases/1,102 deaths - 4.88%

UK: 8,164 cases/423 deaths - 5.19%

Over and above the comparitively low percentage death rates in Germany, however, was the disparity in recovery rates.

You can check on the link, but they are:

Italy: 69,176 cases/8,326 recoveries - 12.04%

Spain: 39,676 cases/3,794 recoveries - 9.57% 

Germany: 32,781 cases/3,243 recoveries - 9.90%

France: 22,616 cases/3,288 recoveries - 14.54%

UK: 8,164 cases/140 recoveries - 1.72%

I understand that statistics can often be misleading, and we (The UK) are perhaps two weeks or so behind the other countries listed, but I find these figures quite concerning, especially if, as I am convinced will be the case, the number of UK cases explodes in the next few weeks due to the belated 'enforced' lock-down and the seemingly lackadaisical manner in which it is being adopted by too many blasé idiots.  

But if we are as you say two weeks behind of course there haven't been as many recoveries yet. It's also very likely those other countries have tested a lot more people. I'm doubtful we only have 8,164 cases which is why our figures pro rata look worse than a lot of the other countries.

2 hours ago, QuedgeRed said:

We haven’t counted today’s deaths have we?

Our latest figures would be from the 23rd??

Don't know for sure. 

That is todays figure 422 dead up 87 on yesterday, Italy's equivalent 14 days ago was 631. it had been 463  so up 168 on the previous day.

2 hours ago, QuedgeRed said:

I don’t think I have this wrong.

Italy were on 463, 14 days in front.

Unfortunately we’re not that far behind.

On 10th march 14 days ago Italy had 631 deaths so a lot more than us at the same stage. our number increased 87 from yesterday the previous days figure in Italy 9th March was 168 lower so their increase was nearly twice ours we are no longer on the same trajectory it seems.

2 minutes ago, RedorDead BCFC said:

It will tell when the cases over flow the NHS bed capacity. 

What I can't understand is in my experience with my wife and father in law is that even before this outbreak there didn't seem to be enough beds already so we are in trouble from day one.

4 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

UK fatalities up 87 to 422 today.

Big jump and very sad but not as bad as I thought it might be given the trajectory of other countries.

Considering we are supposed to be following Italy just 14 days behind this would suggest we are not, thank god.