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italian dave

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Posts posted by italian dave

  1. He can spell his name how he likes if he puts in performances like that.

    I got just about everything wrong before the game, and nothing more so than feeling concerned when I saw Pring out and H in.

    Couldn't have been more wrong. That was a great performance. 

    • Like 3
  2. 13 minutes ago, bexhill reds said:

    Exactly Cornick at the heart of everything we did well in Sat, but overlooked for a headless chicken with all the defensive capability of blancmange, especially with Pring out. That’s not meant to spite Roberts but he’ll need support tonight, and he won’t get that from Mehmeti.

    Poor.

    It doesn’t mean he’s bring “overlooked”. I would guess he’ll feature at some stage and play his part. And I’d be surprised if Mehmeti played 90 mins

    • Like 1
  3. 46 minutes ago, Open End Numb Legs said:

    At least the worries of the local residents about huge crowds and traffic congestion with the new stand never came to fruition. Oh the ironing.

    Is that last bit predictive text. Or did you just remember what you were supposed to be doing today? 😂

    • Thanks 1
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  4. 9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

    ⬆️⬆️⬆️

    You know I love my data, but my base reactions (+/-) come from what I witness.  I don’t even get my Wyscout data til Sunday!  It’s why I also take photos (at AG) and screenshot (RTV) of shape throughout the game.  I’m more interested in how shape impacts the game for and against than a lot else.  Harry might’ve picked up opposing player a swapping with player b, I’m more likely to pick up the shape change resulting in a live game.  On RTV I can pick out the players too.

    The only thing about oohs and aahs that never correlated for me was the disproportionate ooohs we got when Eliasson crossed the ball.  Some of them never looked threatening at all, but it did get the crowds off their feet. 😮

    👍👍

    Oooohhhs and aaaahhhhs, but also just the general noise level. The increased level, the roar that says we feel there’s a goal coming. That only happened a couple of times on Saturday - and it didn’t really last very long. 

  5. 2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

    Well, as long as you don’t take one-game “expected goals” to be a way of defining the end result (some / many do, which I think is wrong), but take over a period of games, say 10+, it is a pretty strong correlation to league position.  Some scoff at it (you know who you are 🤣), but there’s a good reason it’s being used in pro football analytics…albeit anyone worth their salt won’t use it in isolation.

    image.thumb.png.faae36caa6992273e6d97a01cce4d4ef.png

    As you can see, when I plot goal difference (another good barometer) vs xG goal difference, I get a decent correlation to league position.

    The top four are top right.

    The bottom three are bottom left…Rotherham almost off the chart.

    +++++

    So you may not wish to learn about it, but it shouldn’t be dissed either.

    +++++

    My use of xG in an individual match is to mainly around look at how quickly it climbs along the 90+ minute timeline.

    image.thumb.png.d53c20a01f27e839363d747b658ee356.png

    You can see how Boro had more and more chances 2nd half to 1st half, whereas ours flatlined!

     

    Thanks Dave. And I’m certainly not dissing it. I don’t understand it, so I wouldn’t do that.

    I really ought to learn about it…..still reckon the feeling you get from a crowd is a decent guide too though!

    Interesting (if I’ve understood it right) that Boro’s biggest climb was in that 45-60 minute slot that’s been such a problem for us. At the time, I was worried, but I thought that was more about our history of conceding then.

    A plus that we actually didn’t concede this time? 

    • Like 1
  6. 8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

    The original post which I replied to said

    Under Manning when we win we don’t win well enough it seems.  

    The original poster was in my opinion saying "because people have an agenda even when we win they can never be happy" 

    I have simply been pointing out that it was the same under Pearson to add some balance and included the Coventry game as an example where there was a meltdown on here after we won. 

    If Coventry were unlucky with their 1 shot on target and 0.35 xg then Boro must feel all out of luck. 

     

    And I was simply pointing out that, even if there was a “meltdown” after the Coventry game, you weren’t part of it.

    Your post match reaction was a focus on the positives. None of which I’d argue with.

    But your post match reaction on Saturday was the polar opposite and a focus on negatives. Which I do argue with.

    I’m afraid I don’t judge games on the match stats, and I’ve no idea what xg is. Call me a dinosaur, but I go by what I see at the game, what I feel, sense, hear, smell. That’s what football is about to me.

    And, for example, what was significant for me on Saturday was how rarely the Boro fans really made much noise. That said far more to me about how comfortable we were than any shots on target stat.

    Maybe that’s a difference between us and why we’ll never have a meeting of minds.

    Talking of stats more generally though, I notice you’ve still not replied - for a second time - to mine about our punishing schedule at the moment. Interesting that when those stats don’t suit you can ignore or ‘not read’ them!

    I mention that because managing our small squad through that schedule is one of the things I think LM deserves some credit for. We’ll all have views about whether and when he starts, subs, replaces players, but he knows the players situation at any time far better than we do and I think he’s managed it well.

    I hesitate to say that today because I’ve a feeling tonight might be a step too far, but let’s see! 

  7. 37 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

    We only had JKL who we'd not consider to be 1st team on the bench at Boro. 

    The difference between availability for that Coventry game and the Boro game is night and day. 

    Every team has a gruelling schedule, no point moaning about it. Ours maybe a little bit more due to the cup replays but then we're not the only team to play replays. 

    Man City always have a gruelling schedule due to their success, Pep doesn't moan about it. 

    You've proven my point exactly. Even months later you're highly critical of the Coventry performance, even tho they only had the one shot on target. 

    After that game and in your case even months later people said Coventry battered us and dominated us. They didn't. They had a few pot shots but nothing that really troubled Max. But it's fair enough that you thought different and it's also fair enough that I think different about our second half performance v Boro. 

    It's intriguing that those that say Coventry were dead unlucky also don't hold that view about Boros second half performance and infact spin it as tho we defended robustly etc. 

    It's also interesting that those that castrated Nige for the formation we played against Coventry to begin with have also defended Manning changing formation at half time v Boro. 

    Very interesting. 

    It seems that performances under Manning and his decisions are not allowed to be critiqued however Nigels was. 

    Man City’s schedule is of little relevance to us. It’s Southampton’s and QPR’s that’s significant to us.

    And who’s “moaning”?

    I didn’t feel Boro were unlucky, no. The fact that you use words like “spin” suggests you’re putting your own particular take on it. And I’ve certainly never criticised - never mind “castrated - another emotive term that doesn’t make for reasoned argument - anyone for our formation against Coventry.

    But don’t keep playing the martyr?! No-one is suggesting that critiquing any manager isn’t allowed. In my mind all that’s being suggested the past 48 hours is that we show a little joy and spend a little time celebrating three points from a tricky away game! As @Davefevs said (eventually!!), just chill 😎 

  8. 2 hours ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

    That Leeds game where we came back from 2 down to draw in the last couple of minutes with a Flint goal. The one where Pontus Jansen lost it completely and had to be subbed in the first half.

    Yes, remember that, it was so funny. If I remember right he got booked for kicking the ball away. But it wasn’t just a tap into the advertising boards - he actually got it out of the ground 😂😂

    • Like 1
  9. 1 hour ago, handsofclay said:

     

    Correct it wasn't a ticket game, the capacity (37,000) was exceeded and just under 39,000 announced as the gate. A good couple of thousand were also locked outside. 

    I don't know if the exceeding of the capacity by nearly 2,000 had an effect upon the capacity the next season onwards which was reduced to 32,000. 

    I remember being in the Open End on that Monday night, where Garland headed the winner against Clemence. I think the first was a diving header near halftime in the East End goal to equalise Johnson's opener for Liverpool. 

    And most of those locked out climbed in through the back of the East End. I’ve never known it so packed in there.

    • Like 1
  10. 2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

    The thing was, it wasn’t anything of the sort.

    image.thumb.png.4cdd797b19ac215fb69c6c4133a6f043.png

    It was a question, first and foremost.

    Followed by a summary of what I saw happening.

    Followed by a recognition (by myself) that there was a bigger picture, the win.

    Ended with relax, and to go and start some threads reflecting the positive things.

    +++++

    I tried to point a number of posters back to what I’d actually posted, to no avail.

    If that’s a strongly worded criticism of Manning, I’m stunned!

    You’ll know that I was critical of the post on Saturday, Dave.

    I’ve not joined in much since: I’ve said my piece, I take the points you’ve made since, and I’m not going to get into a debate with you on tactics and data!

    But I do think @mozo has a point.

    Whether you’re writing a novel, a political manifesto or a corporate press release, the one thing you’ll get told is to never underestimate the importance of the headline/title and of the opening lines.

    When we’d just come away from Middlesbrough with a win, your headline had a very big “but” (and no question mark), and your opening line talked about disappointment, frustration and anger.

    And, quite honestly, if you’d asked me to come up with three words after the game on Saturday then disappointment, frustration and anger would have been pretty much the last ones I’d have thought of!

    So, whatever else you went on to say, you’d lost me by then! 

  11. 5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

    I wouldn’t say we were comfortable!!!  Emotion of watching real time is one thing, but it’s also much easier to not fret about situations watching it back when you know the striker isn’t gonna place a shot into the corner, and hit a good shot straight at O’Leary…or Dickie is gonna somehow get a toe to a cross! 🤣

    Williams got amongst them.  Shame the other 3 subs didn’t make any impact (Conway excluded as he worked hard without service).  Having said that, Roberts did his job, more McCrorie and Mehmeti who didn’t get anywhere near the levels of Bell and Cornick.

    +++++

    It was good to hear Manning’s interview today and him talk specifically about his systems, and in particular it’s more what each system does without the ball, which is what I was alluding to with the two man press (with Knight) and the one man press (without).

    I don't know about "comfortable", but I honestly didn't have that 'it's only a matter of time' feeling.

    And I'm someone who hates going into an early 3 goal lead on the basis that it looks embarrassing when we give it away!

    I do agree about Williams though. And we did largely revert to a back 5 - as opposed to wing backs pressing forward. Which with one fewer in the middle, may have played its part in the limited effectiveness of Mehmeti and McCrorie, and the complete lack of service to TC.

    And although I'm talking about watching it real time, and not in the knowledge of what's going to happen, I will acknowledge that it probably helped that it was all happening down the other end from us!!

  12. 4 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

    Not sure of the point you're trying to make here? I think you're excluding the context. 

    We played King and Pring at centre back. We only had 14 fit players. 

    I'm not sure of the relevance of my comment about the Coventry game in a conversation about the Boro game where we played well first half and didn't have a depleted squad. 

    There was a massive fallout on here about our performance against Coventry despite the circumstances. So to add balance I pointed out that the criticism isn't unique to Manning as was being framed. 

    The Coventry game was more comfortable viewing than Saturdays game. 

    If you check back my posts you'll see I was full of praise of our front foot football in the first half at Boro. 

     

    OK: the context

    - we hardly have a full or large squad at the moment either - and add to that the gruelling schedule we are facing which is placing us at a disadvantage against every team we face.

    - the relevance of the Coventry game is that it's the one you mentioned as evidence your proposition that posters were equally critical after that game. I was simply responding to your having talked about that game.

    - Subjective I know, but my view is that the game on Saturday was far more comfortable viewing than the Coventry one. I don't think we were unlucky Saturday: I think we played well going forward first half and defended resolutely second half. As I've said elsewhere, it never felt to me - until the very end - that it was just a matter of time til Boro scored. Coventry we were dead lucky: they did everything but score, hit the woodwork, more than once as I recall. Also, we actually played well for long spells on Saturday - we didn't v Coventry. But as I say, I accept that's just my view and yours is different, that's fair enough.

    I didn't read all your posts in the first half, no. I never read the forum when I'm at a match and watching the game. So I tend to go by the - in theory more considered - comments people make afterwards.

    And I have to say that yours weren't terribly positive! Mostly critical in fact.

    The contrast I was making wasn't between a generic summary of 'the feeling' after both games. There were, and are, lots of different views. It was more between your own reaction to the Coventry game, which was to focus on the positives, the need to grind out results, the mentality of the squad, the quality of the opposition. And yet on Saturday your over-riding post match repose was one that was critical of Manning, of the changes to personnel and formation.

  13. 1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

    Oh I'm so sorry. Firstly I didn't see that post and secondly I didn't realise that Bristol City had been given a tougher schedule than anyone else and that we're the only team to play replays. 

    Please note the sarcasm. 

    Well if you have a look at the post - which was a reply to you - you'll see that the fact is that we DO have a tougher schedule than everyone else we're playing at the moment. 

    I'll give you an example. When we play QPR on Saturday that will be our 11th game (plus an extra time) since the Xmas/New Year games. It will be their 8th.

    I'm not going to look out the post or get all the details up together again since you probably won't read this one either. 

    No sarcasm intended!

  14. On 10/02/2024 at 18:20, W-S-M Seagull said:

    Hate this excuse. Its the same for everyone else. 

    No, it's not.

    I replied to your similar statement a couple of weeks ago, and I gave you the facts about how many games we are playing compared to our opponents. We are playing significantly more games - and that was before our replay went to extra time.

    You didn't reply to that, which is your prerogative.

    But I wish you'd stop repeating stuff that's demonstrably not true.

  15. 3 hours ago, Midred said:

    And their "World Series" !

    I remember when the Premier League started, and then we had the ‘Championship’, a third tier called “one” - and all that bollocks. Someone suggested that the Conference, as it then was, should trump them all and call themselves the World Series. Not a bad idea! 

  16. 1 hour ago, phantom said:

    I would assume it's like how Leeds and Man Utd fans sing the songs that used to be sung to them, it kind of throws the insult back at them and shows we can laugh at ourselves

    Sheepshaggers, 1-0 to the sheepshaggers, as @Steve Watts has said above, even the original "I can't read": I get all of those for the reasons you say. The original 'I can't read' would be quite funny as a throw back - I'm from Somerset and what matters to me is being able to drive a tractor!

    But "I'm a f ***g w ***" isn't really throwing anything back. It's like singing Bristol's a shithole  or F off City at yourself. Just immeasurably stupid!

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