Nogbad the Bad

McCarey parries Reid snap shot.

COME ON CITY, CRUSH WOLVES.  

At least 'oskins is at the Yeovil match.

'Referee Phil Dowd is the referee'   

WOLVES:

McCarey, Ricketts, Batth, Stearman, Golbourne, Price, McDonald, Evans, Henry, Jacobs, Dicko.

SUBS: Hennessey, Elokobi, Ebanks-Landell, Sako, McAlinden, Griffiths, Doyle.

Scott Golbourne playing then, and Michael Jacobs who City were supposedly very keen on when he was at Northampton.

And Louis' even more Scottish brother in goal.

I really really can't stand Wolves, or Wolves fans.

Numerous incidents over the decades that I won't bore everyone with by going over again.

I find it incredible there are 1,000 City fans still willing to put themselves through another trip to that hell hole Molineux. All credit to them, just hope we can somehow find a way to smash that Wolves jinx today.

Can't see it though, some things aren't meant to be, it seems, and any match against Wolves is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

Wolves 3-1.  

the top scorer in the league has 15 goals baldock has 12, your expectations are extremely high in fact only 3 players in the world meet them currently Messi, Ronaldo and Suarez, I can't see any of those dropping down for a league 1 relegation battle,

The fact 2 players have have scored 2 thirds of our goals is the shocking thing and the fact we can't keep a clean sheet in the last 4 years is equally shocking,

But still lets pick on one of our top scorers for missing chances even though he has one of the best strike rates in the league we are in,

 

Bristol City trying to destroy good players since 1894

One of your worst posts ever I'm afraid monkeh.

If the top scorer in this division has 15 goals then, on the chances we've witnessed, Baldock should be top scorer by some way.

Simple as that, and no one's 'picking on' Baldock, or trying to 'destroy him' - quite the opposite, the AG crowd have been remarkably supportive, as has the manager, his team mates, and everyone else, while he's displayed some nightmare finishing.

His conversion rate remains a valid discussion for this forum and there's really no need to drag down the thread with comments like the above.

It does seem it's run it's course now though - apparently discussion and opinion on Baldock's missed chances simply isn't allowed, and anyone putting forward arguments that he should have done better MUST want to drive him out of the club.   

The reality is that what you're defining as "gilt edged" and "clear cut" are merely decent chances, and if there were 22 of those plus the 14 he scored that's slightly better than most strikers do. The standard you're trying to hold him to is absurd and nobody would meet it.

That's your version of reality, mine is different.

There are very few who disagree that he's been exceptionally blessed with an extraordinary number of takeable chances this season - including Baldock himself.

The debate is only really about just how many more of those we could reasonably expect him to have taken.

It's not absurd at all to believe he could, and should, have taken alot more, and it seems to me that if you're content to argue his conversion rate is acceptable then your expectations of Baldock are remarkably low.

Regardless of how easy the chances are in your mind though Nogbad, do you seriously expect Baldock to have 26 league goals at this stage of the season? That is Messi or Ronaldo territory.

 

I agree that he should have "some" more as should other strikers in the world (including JET - 1st minute on Saturday anyone?) but good strikers still miss gilt-edged chances, they have done ever since I started following football & they will do long after I turn to dust.

I wouldn't have expected it at the beginning of the season Madger, but if he's had so many gilt edged chances then why not?

It's not really a question of 26 being an incredible total at this stage of the season if he's had an extraordinary number of relatively straightforward chances, which in my view he has.

There's no rule I know of that says it's somehow understandable to miss numerous chances just because you've got to double figures despite doing so.

We all know he should be on alot more. I'd be very surprised if Baldock himself is anywhere near satisfied with his clear cut chances to goals ratio, and he himself would probably admit he should be on well over 20 by now.

He's even said himself he's never before in his career been presented with the chances this City team has created for him this season, so amassing an extraordinary total by this stage would have been far from ridiculous had he been confident and on form.

By the same token it's also not beyond the realms of possibility that he will notch a further 20 in the run in (if he gets his shooting boots on) should the chances keep coming at the same rate.

Then he could end up with even more than Bob Taylor, and he'll no doubt have fired us to safety - so let's hope so!

Read this: http://thenatchwall.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/must-do-better.pdf

 

20 clear cut chances missed including an astonishing 12 one-on-ones. No wonder Baldock himself has been very self-critical.

 

It's not just the type of chances he's missing though, it's the timing of them - often early in games, the important ones.

Thanks KITR - some good reading for BRISTOL86, TRL and one or two others there.

So, 22 clear cut chances not taken. Not one on ones - 12 of them, not 22. ( Although Harry only seems to have counted one against MK.) This figure of 22 was seemingly an exaggeration used as an excuse by some determined to defend him because no one expect strikers to score every one on one. We expect them to score SOME of them though, even if they occasionally have to change their finishing tactics after being put through when their predictable finish has failed consistently. 

Anyway let's say we accept he'll miss almost 70%, but can reasonably expect him to score a third - that's 4, plus the other 10 clear cut, gilt edged MUST score chances.

That's a further 14 in total, and explains very clearly why many of us truly believe he SHOULD have doubled his tally this season.

Surely strikers are judged on the goals they score? Not the ones they miss! Or would we be better off with more clinical striker that scores less goals?

Those who don't see them will judge them on statistics, those who do will make up their minds on the evidence of their own eyes.

Um, yes John, we would be better off with a more clinical striker on this season's evidence. 

Match of the Day is to blame. People have got used to watching highlight packages where the top scorers put away every chance that comes their way. The reality is that even the likes of Suarez and Aguero only have a 25% conversion rate yet people on this thread are arguing with complete sincerity that Baldock should be putting away 40% of his shots (comments about doubling his tally).

Only 2 of the top scorers in L1 have a better goalscoring ratio than Sam yet he is being described as an average L1 striker. Do people even know what average means? In terms of goal ratio if Sam was average then L1 only contains 3 or 4 strikers. In terms of goals scored if Sam was average then L1 must only contain 13 or 14 strikers.

There's probably around 100 strikers in this division that will be used at some point, Sam is distinctly above average. Yes he will miss some real howlers but so does every striker in the world, we just don't see them miss them every game as we are not there or watching their game live on tv.

I rarely watch MOTD, my assertion that Baldock should have doubled his tally is based solely on the chances I've seen him squander.

He's had a plethora of easy chances this season - certainly not just one on ones - and he has notably failed to take far too many.

When comparing him with others I couldn't say whether any other striker in this division has had so many easy chances and failed to take them, but I'd doubt it, because the number he's had would be extraordinary for any striker, even in a much more successful team

Certainly it's hard to think of a City striker in the last 45 years with a comparable catalogue of misses because we've almost never been a high chance creating team. Liam Robinson springs to mind, but even then he wasn't doing air shots from 5 yards out, or often missing the target completely.

I think it was 'Harry' who listed a large number of Baldock's misses a few weeks ago and of course there are quite a few more to add even in the last few games. Perhaps he could do an update? 

I'd look at it that there are half chances, good chances, and gilt edged 'really should score most of them' chances, and it is in the latter catagory that many of Baldock's notable misses fall in to.

Even allowing for the fact that all forwards miss chances it's bemusing to think there's anyone out there who truly believes his total shouldn't be far higher on the quality of chances afforded to him.

I watch, I'm strongly opinionated and My career keeps calling me an Idiot, Does that mean I fall into that category?

Not  in my view, but does your carer post on this forum, even on this very thread perhaps?   

Without doubt. Easy to debate without abuse.

But like all debates everyone thinks they are right

If Baldock does improve his finishing. I think we can both agree, he won't be here long.

If he doesn't improve his finishing I think we can all agree BCFC will never get a decent offer to take him off our hands. Any scout who saw yesterday's first half will never recommend him as a signing, that's for sure.

It's not just the repetetive failure with the one on one's - does anyone even get out of their seat any more when he's bearing down on goal? -  it's numerous easy chances where you would expect a goalscorer at any level to take the majority.

Then there have been several 6 yard box air shots where he has failed to even connect with the ball at all. Presumably these don't go down in the statistics as shots at all, let alone on or off target, but gilt edged, missed, chances they remain.

I don't go along with the theory that he is such a master of movement that he has created all these chances himself where another striker wouldn't have been in position. His movement will have been a factor in some but many, many others have been set up on a plate in a way no City striker has benefited from for many years.

Yet he continues to miss them with such regularity it's hard to believe there are some who seek to completely excuse such unprecedented profligacy.

He could very easily have doubled his tally this season while still failing to take many very good chances, and by the look of him he is as incredulous as most fans that such outrageous misses continue - note the furious booting of the EE hoardings yesterday.

Cotterill is being very supportive and patient publicly but he must be as aware as anyone that it can't go on. If we continue to create this many chances, and squander a similar percentage as the vital games to avoid relegation come thick and fast, then these misses will become an ever more significant factor in determining the outcome of our season.

Yet again we hope his second half goals will have lifted his confidence enough to produce a magical transformation in his golden chance taking percentage in the games to come, because frankly, nothing but massive improvement will do.

Some proper idiots on this forum.

Indeed, and some of the most strongly opinionated and abusive don't even go and watch the bloody games. 

Someone has already stated that this is a 'must win game', so I will merely remind us all who the next two matches are against.

 

Has to be 3 points, as we will get nowt from the next two games.

 

3-1 City - JET to score the second with an over-head kick from 30 yards, in his last game before he signs for Boro.

 

Attendance 11,571.

 

Weather report to follow, if I can be arsed.

Might not be too far off with the gate.

I went to Wickes a couple of hours ago and counted 7 individuals in the vicinity of the ground who might have been football fans.

In fact 2 old blokes were actually in City colours, although one very nearly slipped over while crossing the road at the traffic lights, so may or may not be in attendance.

As for the weather - it's been drizzling but no rain at the moment in BS3.

Ominous clouds though for the walk down............

piss off how is that fair on williams???  looks like the youth policy is slowly leaving

Williams has been injured so it's the right decision.

Now let's see El Abd really get stuck in.

Who will be making way for him then?

 

Osborne?

Flint?

Williams?

On the face of it a puzzling signing, with Carey, Fontaine, Brundle and even Wilson also available.

Osborne's just signed permanently, Flint will have impressed Cotterill and is improving all the time. 

Makes you wonder if perhaps there's some interest in Williams? 

Ward's become very boring indeed since he returned to Rovers. 

Looks like SC's honeymoon period is now well and truly over.

Safely now I can only see a long bleak run of games with no wins. At Forrest I think he managed 7 consecutive defeats, sadly I can see the same happening here.

You are overly gloomy.

Marv's taken a 'knock on his hamstring'

For those of you who don't want to know the Rovers score, look away now.

3-0 down.

Brum 2-0 up v gas, the good news brought by a very depressed and despondent sounding 'Oskin.

Wastaff booked for petulant ball throwing tantrum.

Sounds like they're knackered. Just how heavy was that Bradford pitch?

Bryan scythed down by Angella, yellow card.