IAmNick

14 minutes ago, Tim Monaghan said:

This is why I think it’s nonsense. Sometimes it’s Way Off. Way off. You’d think the team with the higher xG would win, right? Not always the case. It just measures the quality of chances, not who’s gonna win. 
Unlike what @Davefevs will have you believe, football is played by humans. Football isn’t played by robots; Players get nervous, they make mistakes, they do random stuff. xG doesn’t really get that.

Also xG is all about past data. But football’s always changing, so what happened before might not mean squat for what’s coming next. Injuries, suspensions, new players, change of tactics, the list is endless. 

So, yeah, xG is basic of the basic nonsense. 

I would think the team with the higher xG would win if I knew nothing else about the match... and if two teams played 1000 times then statistically the one with the higher xG would almost certainly win more often there. If I told you two teams played each other and one had way better chances you'd presumably think there were more likely to win (but not definite). That's all xG is saying though. This team had better chances. But games are played once, so that doesn't happen. Your argument is just against random chance, not against xG.

And xG is nothing to do with injuries or suspensions or anything like that. Why are you even talking about them? It's nothing to do with what we're talking about.

It's literally just "Based on a load of similar chances, what's the chance this one is a goal?"... that's it. So it takes into account nerves and mistakes to some degree, because that's part of the model, right? Is a perfect model of every players exact mental state at all times? No, and nobody is claiming it is.

It just sounds like you don't really understand what it is to me. It's clearly not nonsense, because that would imply there's absolutely no value in it or correlation with reality - that's provable untrue.

Is it perfect? No. Can it predict the future? No. Is it wrong sometimes? Yeah, of course it is - quite often in fact. Does that make it nonsense? No.

4 minutes ago, Tim Monaghan said:

To the current league table? It’s not though is it. 

Isn't it?

The top 4 are the same top 4 in both tables.

8 of the top 10 are the same in both tables.

That's way, way above what you'd expect from random chance, so there's clearly a correlation. Is it perfect? Absolutely not - and nobody has ever said it is.

There are loads of papers on it's accuracy if you'd care to read them - which no doubt you won't, as you've already decided what you think!

3 minutes ago, MyBrotherErnie said:

A huge problem in football media is that too many people use statistics without referring back to why they matter.

xG, in itself, obviously doesn't matter (at all). But it does measure something that does matter -- the quality of chances a team is creating. Too often journalists (and sometimes managers) get confused on this, and start to speak as if it is the statistic itself that matters (see this). The statistic is not useful unless it is good for measuring something meaningful!

In this case, of course it doesn't matter that our 6-game rolling average xG has improved, but this is good evidence to support the intuition that our quality of play has improved in the last month (beyond results), which does matter. 

I disagree that Goodhart's Law is applicable, because xG can't be gamed in that way you're implying can it? It's an objective measure, so it's not like possession or shots on target - where you could play it around the back or shoot from 30 yards out to game the stats.

I think it does matter if something like an xG rolling average improves, because even if results don't match then it's an indication of where we're headed - and you'd expect in the majority of cases results to eventually converge with it. So it can be a leading indicator of improvement and can show an increase in performance that isn't yet paying dividends, but should be continued with, right?

3 minutes ago, Tim Monaghan said:

Said xG. So show the xG table. That’s what we are talking about. So you’ve just proven my point that it’s nonsense. 

How does that prove your point? Here's the xG one, it's really similar:

6 minutes ago, Arsene's Wanger said:

Post an xg league table compared to the actual league table. Then you'll see if it tells us anything about the season.

This is xGD - so xG - xGA (expected goals minus expected goals against). If it was pure xG then it's just who you'd expect to score the most, which isn't necessarily who you'd expect to be top.

It's pretty accurate. Not perfect and obviously some outliers but definitely a correlation:

(there are multiple xG models obviously and this is just one)

1 hour ago, Tim Monaghan said:

xG is the most nonsense stat in football. I also see the nonsense stat thread, that was updated after every match to batter Manning has disappeared…… funny that. 

Why do you think it's nonsense?

Thread: does anyone find this chart interesting?

Answer: stats in football make me physically sick and trying to find any meaning in anything beyond a result is pointless why bother life is hopeless and meaningless anyway so let's all just stop even trying

Overreaction much!

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

covid then tied Holden’s hands (just Williams recruited with a fee)

It did, although he loaded up on risky experienced players on pretty serious wages (for us) instead which isn't any better really. I'm glad we seem to have knocked that on the head too.

6 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

It's slightly concerning that your obsession stretches as far as keeping tabs on my travel arrangements. 

We missed our mega bus so drove to London. 

Took us ages to find a petrol station open at 6am in the morning. 

Eventually got to London and parked up. Elizabeth line was then suspended so back in the car we got and drove to another station for a different line. 

We then headed to the o2 arena where I had a breakfast followed by some beers. 

Another line then got suspended so we had to uber it to the tax payer funded stadium which once hosted the Olympics. 

We arrived just in time for kick off so had no time for pre match beers. 

We then watched Bristol City play in the former Olympic stadium and had a fantastic time with 9000 other Bristol City fans. 

At half time I had another beer which looking back at my bank account I wasn't charged for. 

After the game we walked around the former Olympic stadium and had beers with the West Ham fans in the home bars outside the stadium. 

After that we then went to the shopping centre which we had to wait ages for the gates to open. Spoke to many West Ham fans whilst waiting too. 

We then went into the shopping centre and we had Popeyes. 

Following that we then went to Wendys for some burger and fries. 

We then got the lizzie line all the way back to where the car was parked and my friend drove home. 

Fantastic day that will live long in the memory which then set up a replay at Ashton Gate which we then won. 

Popeyes THEN Wendys?

I've heard enough. Take him away boys.

2 minutes ago, Supersonic Robin said:

I think a 21 year old striker who has scored 12+ goals for a midtable Championship team in consecutive seasons very much qualifies as a "proper striker".

Some of the disrespect towards Conway over the last few months has been very strange.

Yeah I agree. I think people have become a little blinded by Scott (who we probably won't see the likes of for a decade) and Semenyo who came mostly out of nowhere and tore it up. 

Conway is a good young player, and a very good one for us as they go imo.

31 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

What a guy- we're so lucky to have him. His input has shown remarkable results from Academy levels whilst  his role as technical Director is beginning to reap rewards on the pitch , firstly with Southampton then at Leicester. I'm really excited about next season, we've already got a Bird in the hand as well as a few in the bush and that's before our Summer recruitment.

WE are building the momentum for a serious push towards a top 6 finish in 2025 as he suggested. It's a great time to be a BCFC supporter.

( Facepalm me if you agree)

 

 

Your facepalm line wasn't funny earlier and still isn't now.

Don't you have better things to do in your life than try and wind strangers up on otib? At least try and be slightly subtle or amusing or something.

28 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I'm not even quite ready to believe that Adam Murphy exists. The possibility of the club being tricked by sophisticated AI cannnot yet be fully discounted...

Sophisticated AI??

I'm currently working on the assumption Tinnion got a random email from "HMRC"/a Nigerian prince asking him to transfer a few hundred k to unlock City's bank account, did it, and this is their cover story.

I thought he was good today but my god did he have a lot of time and space on the ball. Overall he hasn't done enough for me since joining, which is a shame as I liked the idea of him. 

As basically our biggest (only!) significant signing of the last few years it's just not for me. That said I'm expecting him to be here next season, and hoping today was just the beginning.

I was very confused reading posts in here until I realised the majority of this thread is about last year's league!

12 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league-academy-players-figures-appearances-numbers-1387302
 

4000 players between 95 and 00 went to category 1 academies, so 800 per year. That's insane. 

Imagine if those were spread more evenly through the leagues how much that'd benefit not just the clubs but them too.

Is it flippant to say these clubs are gambling with these kids in the hope they make it big and get a payout? Crazy.

5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Based on Nick’s handiwork here is the capacity:

I’m sure some of the Atyeo is reduced down for whatever reasons.

I ended up with this based on Nick’s rationale (remove if 100% full).

So if you add 2.5k(ish) in SS, that ought to leave a bit number of POTD for SS.

I happened across this site which has the data on it, which might be updated a bit more later after it's owner (whoever that may be) collects his kid from nursery and gives them dinner:

http://iamnick.xyz/

21 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Thjs s a bit of a hobbyhorse of mine.

*I recall the Atyeo wheb it was a Home Only stand held 4,200. I will try and find it.

*That by @IAmNick adds up to 3,900.

*However @JerrySLO said 3,414 said the max ae permitted by the SAG for football.

That latter point I have a serious issue with, anywhere between 10-20% of capacity has been vanished away into thin air.  Or I should say there is a serious transparency issue there IMO. That is 1.5-3% of stadium capacity too

*How was the decision arose at?

*Who made it?

*What was the specific rationale?

*Who were the relevant Officers in respect of it?

Are wholly valid questions I would say.

This bit is from a thread during the redevelopment.

Could it be things like the little camera gantry which is permanently up at the back now for example - probably takes up a fair few seats. Might be in new numbers, not in old ones.

Maybe some counts include the accessible spaces down near the front, as part of the stand, some consider them separately?

Just ideas - isn't necessarily suspicious.

35 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@IAmNick please can you run your script when our first game goes on sale please.  Save everyone counting seats on the webpage! Ta!

I've been running it regularly so you can have a graph if you really want...!

Currently it thinks there are 9665 seats sold, BUT as the South Stand shows 100% sold, I've excluded any block where that's the case - so that's excluding the south stand, boxes, and some other areas (like the A ones and S82). I reckon given the timing of the tweet about 12k sold there are probably around 2.5k season tickets in the South Stand. I can work that out properly on the first home game I think!

Interestingly this morning when they went on general sale, the number of seats sold went from 9834 to 9573 - I don't know why that'd be. At like 10pm last night it was showing that 9834 sold (again, excluding the south stand).

If people want a current per block breakdown to add up themselves:

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

But SL won’t have to put in as much!

I guess we're all feeling the cost of living crisis huh...

40 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Just imagine though, if you’d used those limited funds in August rather than January!  That’s always been a big thing for me.  I will never be able to square that off in my head, coupled with “you want a CB, here’s Daniel Ayala”.  Hey ho!

The bit I don't get though is that we don't actually need that money really, do we. We need the FFP headroom, not the money itself. 

And there's obviously a time factor there, so it's not like you can save the money and use it a few years later instead, that's not how it works. To make the best use of what selling a player really gets us - 3 years or whatever of FFP headroom, you need to use it asap. We've sort of lost 1/3 of the Scott money by doing nothing.

13 minutes ago, City exile 79 said:

If I could afford to make my teeth 50% better than they do. I would. 
I’ve been told they look like tombstones and can’t disagree 

I don't think they're better though - they're totally unnatural looking. No teeth, however well you look after them look like that. It just looks weird imo, although if people want to that's fine by me.

Just saw Everton's first goal, hahaha, truly the beautiful game: https://streamin.me/v/61e3d472

4 hours ago, Jeez said:

As it stands

6095 unsold + 4200 for the Atyeo plus whatever is held back for hospitality & South stand POTD

On that’s basis I reckon about 14k again wouldn’t be far off the mark.

Yes I was bored so counted them

Blimey.

If you look at the page source you'll see a JSON object in there full of stuff like this:

{
    "guid": "e79935ff-5695-4725-bedd-6126de0f4d53",
    "name": "W9",
    "type": "SelectedSeats",
    "free": 184,
    "soldOut": false,
    "isBlocked": false
  }
 

Then write a bit of code (or whack it in a spreadsheet if that's easier) and sum the free column. It's currently at 6331 free and will save you a lot of time!

1 hour ago, cotswoldred2 said:

Like I said a bit of crazy unwarranted (perhaps) support for the club might be the missing piece in the puzzle but that is not a realistic Bristol trait really.

How can you say this and then a couple of posts later bring up teams like Man U and Leeds as examples of things we're missing? Unbelievable. Man U fans hate their club with a burning passion, and Leeds and absolutely militant and unaccepting of anything even slightly substandard.

Ridiculous. At least get what you think straight.

7 minutes ago, E.G.Red said:

LJ likes a bounce and knows the club

Unfortunately though they also know him...