RedM Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Add into that any team will enjoy trying to beat the team that's at the top of the table, just because they are top of the table. Also they maybe mid table and seemingly have nothing to play for. And also the fact that reality of relegation is probably dawning on some teams now and will put up a fight, they might be low on confidence but they need points as much as we do. I don't think for a moment Cotterill will allow us to be complacent and he's of course right to treat any opponents with caution and respect...then go out and thrash 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looking at how we've performed so far and what we have left, its hard to see us failing to make the top two. We are so consistent and strong all over the pitch. All we need to do is keep it steady. I think for us to fail, we'd need to have either a big injury crisis or something catastrophic like Cotterill being poached or a financial collapse. Sadly nothing is sure .The great thing about football is the unpredictability . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 I've taken your remaining fixtures lists and analysed them some more. The following table breaks down the remaining opponents for each of the 3 leading candidates and in terms of top half & bottom half opposition we all have very similar numbers but interesting that, of our 10 bottom half opponents, we will face the entire bottom 6 sides... I then went on to analyse where home advantage would apply (ideally we'd face the top half teams at home and the bottom half away given an even split of home/away).... It may well turn out to be crucial that 6 of MK Dons' 9 games against top half opposition come away from home whilst City have home advantage in 5 of our 9 games against our tougher remaining opponents. In our games against bottom half teams, in the main, we have home advantage against the higher teams and travel away to the lower ones. #sad #needalife #COYR Thank you Professor Frink ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo II Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Starting tonight with MK away to Bradford, I think we're going to learn a lot about the top three sides over the next eight days. We've three home matches in that time, which will remove our game advantage, while both Swindon and MK have two away matches; and in both latter team's cases, I don't see those as easy games (as in I wouldn't if we were playing them) for a number of reasons. If there was ever a trio of games in which nine points really was a MUST for us, it is now, as I really cannot see either Swindon or MK getting maximum from their away matches. May very well be proved wrong of course, but do think that next time we head for an away day (against a team in the bottom four who've just lost their top scorer this window, it should be added) we could very well have a 4+ point lead. All told; we're not in bad shape. Wilbraham and Agard back too; COYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRaw Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 With 19 games to go last season, we managed 9 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats collating 34 points Appreciate it's a different scenario this season however, replicate that finish and we'll have 92 points = promotion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedM Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 With 19 games to go last season, we managed 9 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats collating 34 points Appreciate it's a different scenario this season however, replicate that finish and we'll have 92 points = promotion Which backs up my theory about teams around the bottom not giving up the points easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bernie from barrow gurney Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 I've taken your remaining fixtures lists and analysed them some more. The following table breaks down the remaining opponents for each of the 3 leading candidates and in terms of top half & bottom half opposition we all have very similar numbers but interesting that, of our 10 bottom half opponents, we will face the entire bottom 6 sides... I then went on to analyse where home advantage would apply (ideally we'd face the top half teams at home and the bottom half away given an even split of home/away).... It may well turn out to be crucial that 6 of MK Dons' 9 games against top half opposition come away from home whilst City have home advantage in 5 of our 9 games against our tougher remaining opponents. In our games against bottom half teams, in the main, we have home advantage against the higher teams and travel away to the lower ones. #sad #needalife #COYR Awesome work Fordy & Ian. However possibly needs a little more algorithmic theory applied before we can all start to truly believe. Take a look at this excellent article for what has been done before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 9, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Awesome work Fordy & Ian. However possibly needs a little more algorithmic theory applied before we can all start to truly believe. Take a look at this excellent article for what has been done before. Oh dear, I'm interested in applying that :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Not if we get more than 91 points it doesn't... No guarantees. If the top three pull away it's perfectly possible, albeit unlikely, that one of them could finish third with 91 points. History is a good indicator, but nothing more than that. I'm not really a believer in the whole "this many points guarantees promotion" thing. Getting more points than 22 other teams is what guarantees promotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Oh dear, I'm interested in applying that :/ Hahaha. Sadly I am too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 9, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hahaha. Sadly I am too. I'm sure it can be done with a simple excel spreadsheet. Certainly the attack & defence strength can be. I then just need to look into assigning the Poisson Distribution Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 9, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 No guarantees. If the top three pull away it's perfectly possible, albeit unlikely, that one of them could finish third with 91 points. History is a good indicator, but nothing more than that. I'm not really a believer in the whole "this many points guarantees promotion" thing. Getting more points than 22 other teams is what guarantees promotion. Except get 100 points & I'd be pretty confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Except get 100 points & I'd be pretty confident Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Average goals scored is 37. Average goals conceded is therefore 37. Bristol City attacking prowess is 50/37 = 1.35 - 35% more goals per game than average. Scrap that. We have a game in hand so (I think we need to multiply by 28/27) = 1.4, 40% more goals than average. Bristol City defending prowess is 22/37 x (28/27) = 0.62 - 38% less goals per game than average. Swindon's attack 54/37 = 1.46 Swindon's defence 27/37 = 0.73 MK Dons attack 59/37 = 1.59 MK Dons defence 25/37 = 0.68 OK, the next bit is where it gets tricky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Goals scored at home... 1 x 115 = 115 2 x 80 = 160 3 x 33 = 99 4 x 11 = 44 5 x 2 = 10 6 x 2 = 12 (both MKD's) 1 x 7 = 7 (MKD's) Total = 447 home goals in 334 games. Average goals scored at home is 1.34 goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Goals scored away... 90 x 0 = 0 116 x 1 = 116 86 x 2 = 172 31 x 3 = 93 (interestingly of the 31 times 3 have been scored away from home, we've done it on 5) 8 x 4 = 32 3 x 5 = 15 Total = 428 / 334 away games Average away goals is 1.28 goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ian? You still with me on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Let's study the up coming game of Bristol City v Swindon... Bristol City = average home goals x attacking prowess (BC) x defensive prowess (ST) = 1.34 x 1.4 x 0.73 = 1.37 Swindon = average away goals x attacking prowess (ST) x defensive prowess (BC) = 1.28 x 1.46 x 0.62 = 1.16 There you have it ladies and gents, I predict... Bristol City 1.37 - 1.16 Swindon Town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lew-T Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 March looks very good, need to take maximum points going into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cottsciderarmy Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 I reckon we'll get 35 points between now and the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 9, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Let's study the up coming game of Bristol City v Swindon... Bristol City = average home goals x attacking prowess (BC) x defensive prowess (ST) = 1.34 x 1.4 x 0.73 = 1.37 Swindon = average away goals x attacking prowess (ST) x defensive prowess (BC) = 1.28 x 1.46 x 0.62 = 1.16 There you have it ladies and gents, I predict... Bristol City 1.37 - 1.16 Swindon Town Sorry at work at the moment but we need to do the Poisson Distribution to see the most likely result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfctim Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Wow I come on otib whilst bored during my Statistics lecture and all I find is more stats! I can't escape it *Count me as one of the saddos really interested in applying it though... good work Fordy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InCider Posted February 9, 2015 Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Good work Fordy62. Can we have some sort of gant chart please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Good work Fordy62. Can we have some sort of gant chart please? Haha. I'm just waiting for Ian M's backup. My stats knowledge isn't quite what it was 16 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 9, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 According to the Poisson Distribution Table I have calculated there is a 54.4% chance of MK failing to win tonight. However, the most likely individual scoreline is a 1-0 MK win, followed by 1-1, 0-0 & then 1-0 Bradford win in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 According to the Poisson Distribution Table I have calculated there is a 54.4% chance of MK failing to win tonight. However, the most likely individual scoreline is a 1-0 MK win, followed by 1-1, 0-0 & then 1-0 Bradford win in that order. Looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 9, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 9, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 If anyone else wants this Excel file just drop me your email address in a PM. There's a tab to input Home & Away Games Played/Goals Scored/Goals Conceded then a separate tab where you select the Home & Away teams from drop down boxes and it gives the complete set of probabilities of the above results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Orns Posted February 10, 2015 Report Share Posted February 10, 2015 I said to my Swindle mate a few weeks ago that I reckon the two of us will be well clear come the Easter Monday extravaganza I was surprised to hear (before our game at the weekend) that Dons had only lost once in the league since we beat them. We've lost 3 since then, and we could be 8 points in front if we win our hands in hand, and the fact we haven't shaken Swindle off all season just shows how superior the two teams are. We are both winning games, Dons must be drawing quite a few I think we'll beat 8 points or so clear of Dons and 2 or 3 clear of Swindle come the big day. Last minute Flint winner, title is in the bag PS - was anyone else aware the fishing emoticon is entitled 'robbored'.....genius! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Watts Posted February 10, 2015 Report Share Posted February 10, 2015 Have to say that whilst I wouldn't expect maximum points in March, I would be disappointed to drop points in any of those matches. The home games this month, and then every game in March is crucial I would say (not to mention payback against the Cheats, of course!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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