MC RISK77 Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Any statisticians out there who know the average points to go up from this league...I though 85 would normally be a good benchmark which means we need 7 wins from last 15 games which sounds very possible ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahatma Coate Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Any statisticians out there who know the average points to go up from this league...I though 85 would normally be a good benchmark which means we need 7 wins from last 15 games which sounds very possible ? 93-96 to win it more years than not - 103 top last year 88-92 to get promotion most years - 94 last year. The most important data point is what the third place team gets, if you get 1 more you are promoted. Third was 86 points last year, 79 the year before and then 90, 87, and 85. In theory 90 does it but this year if it stays a three horse race I'd bet on 93-94 to be sure of second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciderbeans Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 By your reckoning risk, if all goes to plan, we could be promoted by the time the Wembley final comes about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 9 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malago Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Both Swindle and MKD are averaging 1.9 points per game, unless both improve on that average over the last third of the season 88 will be enough. That means 24 points from 16 games. We've got 7 games at home and all 4 bottom clubs away. Eight wins from those 11 games should see us over the line. The other 5 games are all tricky up north away games. Donny, Chesterfield, Oldham, Bradford and PNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 9 wins.[/quote So close ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderingred Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 90 should make sure of second this year imho. 8 wins and a couple of draws in 16 games.. Very very achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 I hate this game. It's entirely plausible that both MK and Swindon could keep winning along with us, and someone could end up with a huge points total yet still finish third. Previous years give an indication but no guarantees. The answer to the original question is "more than 22 other teams". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 I am in the '9 more wins' camp. That gives us 91 points. Time will tell I suppose, but every win now really takes the pressure off sales of that squeaky bum cream in April. We are two weeks in to six weeks of two games a week. Two mini seasons now of eight games before the JPT, and eight after. Five out of the next six away, included within that the bottom three. Nothing is easy, but think we need a minimum of 5 wins from those eight, or equivalent. No reason why we cannot do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 We are averaging over 2 points a game. Maintain that average and we have 32 points coming our way - that puts us on 96 points. I think that would get us promoted automatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manon Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 89 will be enough this season. You heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ten minutes of rough Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 I am in the '9 more wins' camp. That gives us 91 points. Time will tell I suppose, but every win now really takes the pressure off sales of that squeaky bum cream in April. We are two weeks in to six weeks of two games a week. Two mini seasons now of eight games before the JPT, and eight after. Five out of the next six away, included within that the bottom three. Nothing is easy, but think we need a minimum of 5 wins from those eight, or equivalent. No reason why we cannot do that. 9 wins will do but there will be a couple of draws too, so 8 wins is really do-able from 20 games left. Also allowing for a drop in form with a less that 1.5 points per match ratio, currently we are well over 2 points per game. It's for us to throw it away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'll do the real league table tomorrow, but from memory average points for second over past ten seasons was 88, title 94 Long way to go yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ten minutes of rough Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 89 will be enough this season. You heard it here first. 7 wins 4 draws 5 defeats should still do it then, seriously, and I know we are BCFC, but are we goona lose FIVE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 7 wins 4 draws 9 defeats should still do it then, seriously, and I know we are BCFC, but are we goona lose NINE? Where are you getting 20 games left? It's 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 What is interesting about the eight games we have before and after the JPT to me is this: Of the eight we have before, we got 5W, 2D 1L against first time round. 17 points (the lose being Crewe!) Of those after, we managed 3W, 3D, 2L, a rather skinnier 12 points - including currently 4th, 7th, 8th and 9th all away, and Swindon at home. Basically, if we can, lets fill our boots in the next 8 games, and take some pressure off April! Was also going to say tactically, I think the club have decided to get as many games in as they can now, to give more space in April, which looks tougher, when hopefully the other sides are getting knackered! Other than Easter, we only have one mid week game - hopefully against a Bradford a few days away from a FA cup semi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ten minutes of rough Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Where are you getting 20 games left? It's 16 Of course thanks for that, I will therefore say are we gonna lose FIVE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Of course thanks for that, I will therefore say are we gonna lose FIVE? We could...it then depends what happens in the others! I think in hindsight Cotts got in wrong on Saturday...BUT...the one thing we have kept away from pretty much for some time is draws. Other than MK, Cotts seems happy to roll the dice and go for a win, even if we end up losing on the day. He would take 6 wins and 2 defeats in the next eight I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Nicked from the Sheff Utd forum, for what it is worth...can see why they produced it! Matches left to play for top 6 against each other Doncaster 24 Feb Bristol City Home 3 March PNE Away 17 March Swindon Home 28 March MK Dons Away 7 April Blades Away Blades 7 April Doncaster Home PNE 3 March Doncaster Home 7 March MK Dons Away 11 April Bristol City Home 25 April Swindon Home Swindon 17 March Doncaster Away 3 April MK Dons Home 6 April Bristol City Away 25 April PNE Away MK DONS 7 March PNE Home 28 March Doncaster Home 3 April Swindon Away Bristol City 24 Feb Doncaster Away 6 April Swindon Home 11 April PNE Away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotham Brow Red Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Also got to factor in our current points advantage (other than game in hand), at least a game we can (hopefully not) lose but it's not a disaster in the overall season that's left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 90 will do it. 9 wins from 16, job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nicked from the Sheff Utd forum, for what it is worth...can see why they produced it! Matches left to play for top 6 against each other Doncaster 24 Feb Bristol City Home 3 March PNE Away 17 March Swindon Home 28 March MK Dons Away 7 April Blades Away Blades 7 April Doncaster Home PNE 3 March Doncaster Home 7 March MK Dons Away 11 April Bristol City Home 25 April Swindon Home Swindon 17 March Doncaster Away 3 April MK Dons Home 6 April Bristol City Away 25 April PNE Away MK DONS 7 March PNE Home 28 March Doncaster Home 3 April Swindon Away Bristol City 24 Feb Doncaster Away 6 April Swindon Home 11 April PNE Away that week in April will confirm us as Champions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Cyril Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Is it true we are awarded six points if we beat Swindon though. I am sure I read that somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonsKev Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Is it true we are awarded six points if we beat Swindon though. I am sure I read that somewhere. Not quite, however as November indicates you do win the Champions League, World Cup & The Premier League all in one game. I'm sure that is what Swindon were celebrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoke_Gifford_Red Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nicked from the Sheff Utd forum, for what it is worth...can see why they produced it! Matches left to play for top 6 against each other Doncaster 24 Feb Bristol City Home 3 March PNE Away 17 March Swindon Home 28 March MK Dons Away 7 April Blades Away Blades 7 April Doncaster Home PNE 3 March Doncaster Home 7 March MK Dons Away 11 April Bristol City Home 25 April Swindon Home Swindon 17 March Doncaster Away 3 April MK Dons Home 6 April Bristol City Away 25 April PNE Away MK DONS 7 March PNE Home 28 March Doncaster Home 3 April Swindon Away Bristol City 24 Feb Doncaster Away 6 April Swindon Home 11 April PNE Away Easter weekend is a massive period for the top three. Swindon against MK whilst we are away at Oldham on Good Friday followed by us against Swindon on the Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gert Mare Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hopefully we will have enough points in reserve not to worry about the bigger games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cottsciderarmy Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Agree 9 wins needed to go up , 11 wins needed to win the league imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunsteral Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 As i said on a previous contribution, it would be double whammy if we can get the 90 points or so against swindon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Our record at the moment (19-7-4 56-26) is almost identical to that of Wolves at this point last year (19-7-4 50-20), and they went on to win the league. They, however, were 3rd at this point, 2 points behind Brentford and level on points with Orient, who were in a false position due to having played 2 games more. Over the remaining games, Wolves went 12-3-1 and finished on 103 points, whilst Brentford *only* managed 9-3-4 and finished on 94 points. Orient went 6-4-4 and reached 86. Crudely extrapolating our form to date sees us go 10-4-2 over the remaining games, giving a total of 98 points which should definitely be good enough for top 2 but may not win the league, depending on the form of others (performing the same extrapolation with them would suggest it would be, though). Personally, I reckon 16 more wins should be enough to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade Elliotts Quiff Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 94 points will see us with the league, im just hoping we can get a minimum of 6 points from those 3 away games on the trot soon.. Saturday tuesday and the saturday all away will take its toll on the players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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