Is Steve Lansdown Being Realistic?

[ScottishRed]

1 hour ago, Tipps69 said:

I think everything goes hand in hand!!

Better players on the pitch means better performances & results, which means better crowd figures, which means more money in the clubs coffers, which means a bigger budget for better players on the pitch, which means better performances & results on the pitch!!

You get the idea?.......

I personally don't think that Premiership football can be obtained by the end of next season but I would guess that if we manage to stay in the championship for next season, it will mean we will be in a better position to sign a better quality of player than this past season as we will be seen as a more stable "Championship" club & will have more funds in place too.

Promotion too soon would possibly be a bad thing too as we wouldn't have the correct infrastructure in place to give it a proper go & that would probably mean certain relegation back to the Championship but with all the money that would bring from a season in the Premiership & the subsequent parachute payments would probably mean we would be in a decent position to give it a proper go at promotion back to the Premiership but as we all know there are no guarantees in that happening!!

Of course, it is possible because you only have to look at Bournemouth, Bolton, Charlton, Coventry, Blackburn, Blackpool, Swindon, Portsmouth etc that have all made it to the "promised land" but I would prefer to know that we were actually ready as a club, rather than making it as a total fluke & then panicking once we're there!!

But I guess in this game beggars can't be choosers & if the opportunity arises, we'd have to take it & try to the best of the situation!!

I think that IF we get to the EPL we , like everyone else in that position is in a win / win. 

Get relegated and you still get a huge influx of cash to help you try again, look at Burnley this season, challenging to get automatic and spending some of their "windfall" on a new training ground.They also bought some striker from Brentford for a bit of cash and he has done OK. Oh, and signed that nice Mr Barton ( and without doubt he has helped them),

in my opinion IF we stay up we have a lot to do to " challenge" next season, last night was not the first time we saw how far off we are from being a top six team in this league, and that old chestnut of "buying the best of L1" is simply not going to improve that situation. The top teams in this league are a step ( and a bit) above us.

[BRISTOL86]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

They also have a larger budget to work with in terms of wages, having sold 27k for the past 4/5 years. 

And that's what people keep missing. 

We have a very small core of hardcore supporters and we have to live largely within our means. 

The people wanting to see us spend millions on players and throw whatever money is required to get players to sign are the same ones saying they want cheaper tickets and more for their money, and somehow think we have an entitlement to be better than every opposition week in week out!

[BCFC Jordan]

Bournemouth showed that it can be done without parachute payments and being a big club. If we can afford to make big bids for Gayle/Gray (as long as they weren't for show to make SC look the bad guy) there's no reason why we can't challenge for promotion to the PL if SL is willing to go for it. Swansea are an extremely difficult club to replicate, especially when we're so often such a mess behind the scenes.

 

This time next year, we'll be playing in a 27,000 all-seater. Hopefully the ticket pricing will be sensible so we're not playing in a half-empty stadium. Hopefully SL is willing to back LJ in the transfer market. It can be done, it's just whether SL is prepared to back. Otherwise, unless drastic changes behind the scenes occur, we're destined to finish bottom half Championship/L1 for the forseeable, in my opinion.

[Tipps69]

16 minutes ago, ScottishRed said:

I think that IF we get to the EPL we , like everyone else in that position is in a win / win. 

Get relegated and you still get a huge influx of cash to help you try again, look at Burnley this season, challenging to get automatic and spending some of their "windfall" on a new training ground.They also bought some striker from Brentford for a bit of cash and he has done OK. Oh, and signed that nice Mr Barton ( and without doubt he has helped them),

in my opinion IF we stay up we have a lot to do to " challenge" next season, last night was not the first time we saw how far off we are from being a top six team in this league, and that old chestnut of "buying the best of L1" is simply not going to improve that situation. The top teams in this league are a step ( and a bit) above us.

I agree with what you are saying but as long as we stay up this season, we should see us improve year on year & my guess would be that we may see one or two more foreign signings come in as they are seen as better value for money.

And who knows, one or two of these new signings may turn out to be able to take us to that next level.

This coming summer, given that we stay up, we should be looking at replacing the current loan signings that we currently have or maybe even signing them permanently & we are now in a much better position to evaluate the squad to who is up to the required standard & who isn't & this should also mean we see a few new recruits of a higher standard & who's to say that one of those doesn't take the league by storm like a Varney or Mahrez?

These things will all gradually improve the club & hopefully mistakes will have been learnt from the last time we were in this division when we didn't aim to improve the playing side of things in the January before our play off final.

We must aim to constantly improve instead of being happy with where we're at.

[CotswoldRed]

1 hour ago, BCFC Jordan said:

Bournemouth showed that it can be done without parachute payments and being a big club. If we can afford to make big bids for Gayle/Gray (as long as they weren't for show to make SC look the bad guy) there's no reason why we can't challenge for promotion to the PL if SL is willing to go for it. Swansea are an extremely difficult club to replicate, especially when we're so often such a mess behind the scenes.

 

This time next year, we'll be playing in a 27,000 all-seater. Hopefully the ticket pricing will be sensible so we're not playing in a half-empty stadium. Hopefully SL is willing to back LJ in the transfer market. It can be done, it's just whether SL is prepared to back. Otherwise, unless drastic changes behind the scenes occur, we're destined to finish bottom half Championship/L1 for the forseeable, in my opinion.

and by spending a decent fortune on fees and transfers. 

[BCFC Jordan]

1 minute ago, CotswoldRed said:

and by spending a decent fortune on fees and transfers. 

 

That was my point!

[CotswoldRed]

1 minute ago, BCFC Jordan said:

 

That was my point!

Ah I see.  I'm not sure we can realistically emulate them unless SL is prepared to go for broke and run roughshod over FFP.

[sodburyred]

3 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

But SL has said - his own words - he wants us challenging at the top next season. He said that, just before Christmas. That's not "incremental," that's transformation. Radical. A big step from where we are now. Steve's words, not mine.

In fairness he didn't say that. He said he expected us to be more competitive in this league next season with a completed ground for income.

Competitive in my mind means anything from 10th position up. I find that an incredibly realistic aim. Especially with the extra revenue from a completed ground.  

[Jack Dawe]

25 minutes ago, sodburyred said:

In fairness he didn't say that. He said he expected us to be more competitive in this league next season with a completed ground for income.

Competitive in my mind means anything from 10th position up. I find that an incredibly realistic aim. Especially with the extra revenue from a completed ground.  

Post interview with Stockhausen, 23 Dec 2015

"Although City are having to fight hard to retain their Championship status in their first season back in the second tier, Lansdown anticipates better times ahead.

Asked when he felt City might be in a position to challenge for promotion to the Premier League, he declared: 'I'd like to think we could be there next season.' "

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, BCFC Jordan said:

Bournemouth showed that it can be done without parachute payments and being a big club. 

Crap example.

What Bournemouth actually showed was that if you break the financial fair play rules (as they did by absolute miles) but get promoted there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Their wages to turnover ratio (179%) is the highest ever recorded and last season on 11,000 gates they paid a loan signing £37k a week.

I think they are about the worst example of "modern football" there is myself..

[deadredfred]

All commendable from a financial point of view. And given the right management, certainly achievable. I do beleive there are League One players that would improve our squad. Sustained and gradual growth is absolutely fine with me.

He needs to be careful with setting expectations because we've had all that before and it only leads to disappointment. But I'd also hope we are more competitive next season, regardless of stadium. Our squad will have another years experience and with a proper summer of recruitment we ought to get players in that will improve us. 

[havanatopia]

7 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

He has publicly said he wants us to be challenging at the top of the championship next season.

He has said we should be trying to sign the best players in L1 instead of chasing expensive quality like Gray etc.

And it is clear he wants our academy players given a chance in the first team.

Finally, Steve wants us to be "sustainable" and live within our means, whilst holding the Prem as an ultimate aim.

 

Can this be done? Does it all add up?

 

 

No and No. Not unless we pump them full of steroids.

Steve is allowed to change his mind though which he does frequently in all Carey fairness.

[Jack Dawe]

3 hours ago, Harry said:

Jack. None of the starting 11 for Brighton last night were signed from the Prem. 

1 came through their youth. 3 came from championship (2 of whom were not 'regulars' by any means). 2 came from league 1. 1 came from league 2. 1 came from Belgiums top league. 2 came from Spain's top league. 1 came from Scotland's top league. 

A team can be built by looking for quality in the lower leagues and supplementing it with a little more experience. 

For what it's worth, mr cotterills comment of "there's no good players in leagues 1 & 2" is made to look rather silly when you see Goldson playing for Brighton last night. He was at Shrewsbury last year. Looked decent enough to me. 

They've picked up lower league talent, out of favour champ players and been prudent with them. Then gone the little extra to bring overseas players with pedigree. 

They also have a larger budget to work with in terms of wages, having sold 27k for the past 4/5 years. 

Cheers mate. I don't know where they shopped, other than Baldock, obviously, and Zamora. Bit of a hotch potch approach but my question is, as you mention, they get crowds of 24 25k and must have a decent budget so I'm wondering if SL is being realistic when he would like to see us challenging next year, when we have a L1 team with Kodj and two quality loans that probably won't join permanently here at the moment. 

[YorkshireSection]

I think it's almost impossible to move on next season.

Half our first team isn't ours, so we're going to need to replace those 5/6 plus two strikers and some cover for midfield, that's roughly 10 players and they need to gel quickly and be of championship calibre.

If SL wants what he's asking for then he should spend heavily in a top quality scouting squad, as players really do need us to SELL the club to them, so to speak.

I think a manager with championship experience would have made things more attainable, however LJ will be supported well as Pemberton showed before LJ got the job.

The other thing that is really going to be important is a great relationship between manager/coach and the board, LJ is on the ball, intelligent and articulate so I'd imagIne he will communicate well with the suits.

PS its Parachute payments that has made the championship the little brother of the EPL, it really does sicken me, the majority of the championship have benefited hugely, kind of makes things a tad harder.............rant over..

[ScottishRed]

18 minutes ago, YorkshireSection said:

I think it's almost impossible to move on next season.

Half our first team isn't ours, so we're going to need to replace those 5/6 plus two strikers and some cover for midfield, that's roughly 10 players and they need to gel quickly and be of championship calibre.

If SL wants what he's asking for then he should spend heavily in a top quality scouting squad, as players really do need us to SELL the club to them, so to speak.

I think a manager with championship experience would have made things more attainable, however LJ will be supported well as Pemberton showed before LJ got the job.

The other thing that is really going to be important is a great relationship between manager/coach and the board, LJ is on the ball, intelligent and articulate so I'd imagIne he will communicate well with the suits.

PS its Parachute payments that has made the championship the little brother of the EPL, it really does sicken me, the majority of the championship have benefited hugely, kind of makes things a tad harder.............rant over..

I agree with almost all of that, particularly the last paragraph. The problem clubs like ours have is that it is only going to get worse as the three that come down in May 2017 will have 90m+ in the bank. The reality is, as said above, IF you want to be in the Premier League you have to forget FFP and go for it by spending serious money both in wages and transfer fees.

There is a strong argument that after 2017 the EPL is actually made up of 23 clubs of which 3 spend a season in the Championship every so often. The only way to break that is to spend a lot of money, sad but true.

[Northern Cider Ed]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

Crap example.

What Bournemouth actually showed was that if you break the financial fair play rules (as they did by absolute miles) but get promoted there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Their wages to turnover ratio (179%) is the highest ever recorded and last season on 11,000 gates they paid a loan signing £37k a week.

I think they are about the worst example of "modern football" there is myself..

Kenwyne Jones? Jesus no wonder Cardiff are under transfer embargo.

[Tipps69]

50 minutes ago, YorkshireSection said:

I think it's almost impossible to move on next season.

Half our first team isn't ours, so we're going to need to replace those 5/6 plus two strikers and some cover for midfield, that's roughly 10 players and they need to gel quickly and be of championship calibre.

If SL wants what he's asking for then he should spend heavily in a top quality scouting squad, as players really do need us to SELL the club to them, so to speak.

I think a manager with championship experience would have made things more attainable, however LJ will be supported well as Pemberton showed before LJ got the job.

The other thing that is really going to be important is a great relationship between manager/coach and the board, LJ is on the ball, intelligent and articulate so I'd imagIne he will communicate well with the suits.

PS its Parachute payments that has made the championship the little brother of the EPL, it really does sicken me, the majority of the championship have benefited hugely, kind of makes things a tad harder.............rant over..

Sorry, half our first team isn't ours?

Baker, Pearce & Tomlin, who else am I missing?

[GrahamC]

4 minutes ago, Northern Cider Ed said:

Kenwyne Jones? Jesus no wonder Cardiff are under transfer embargo.

Yep.

[spudski]

This is a funny old league...it's much of a muchness...you get a few at the top and a few at the bottom that are extreme cases, but the Championship is a very even league.

As for being contenders next season...I see no reason why not. Preston aren't far off the play off places right now, and imho, have a far inferior squad.

If we can add a few players of quality to what we have now, then I can't see why we can't kick on.

Right now, it's a bit of a struggle, because of a small squad and injuries.

Our form in the last 5 games is that of a mid table side or better...so we are definitely going in the right direction.

Expecting Promotion type form because a new manager comes in is futile.

The points we have gained since LJ, JP and WA took over, are commendable, and proves we have the players, when fully fit, of gaining points in this league.

[The Coach]

After years of having Lansdown run the show I take what he says with a pinch of salt. We hear one thing, then actions follow the exact opposite. If he does want us to challenge near the "top end" next season then money will have to be spent this summer. Which means no more fiascos that "apparently" happended with Harry Maguire and Andre Gray.

As grateful as I am for SL for his contribution to the club, especially with the re-development of AG. I'm pretty sure we will never seen Top Flight football under his reign. He and the board make too many mistakes which end up costing us. It's pretty much 1 step forward, 2 steps back. But at the same time you could argue where we would be without him. Maybe in the PL, same position as now, possibly non league football. Who knows.

 

[sodburyred]

2 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

Post interview with Stockhausen, 23 Dec 2015

"Although City are having to fight hard to retain their Championship status in their first season back in the second tier, Lansdown anticipates better times ahead.

Asked when he felt City might be in a position to challenge for promotion to the Premier League, he declared: 'I'd like to think we could be there next season.' "

Fair dos. I was going by what he said on radio Bristol. It wouldn't be unheard of for the post to have mis-quoted him. 

[Jack Dawe]

4 minutes ago, sodburyred said:

Fair dos. I was going by what he said on radio Bristol. It wouldn't be unheard of for the post to have mis-quoted him. 

On BBC Sport site, 21 Dec 2015:

"City's owner says he hopes if they can remain in the Championship this season they can strengthen significantly in the summer to challenge near the top of the Championship next term."

 

[downendcity]

7 hours ago, frenchred said:

No he is not, in fact totally unrealistic. In my view we will be even worse off next year and another relegation battle will be had unless he stumps up the money to buy Baker and players of his calibre. Lansdown wont do it, but it wont be his fault of course and we'll have a nice shiny new stadium.

The problem is not that Sl won't dip his hand in his pocket to buy players - the fact that we were able to go after £7m strikers in the summer demonstrates that.

The problem is wages, because ffp limits the amount we can make in losses each year and with wages being the biggest spend this is where we do have a problem and SL is not allowed to fund a bottomless pit, in terms of our operating budget.

The nice new shiny stadium is not SL's equivalent of his pharoah's pyramid. It is however the means by which he is allowed to spend his money on an asset for the club that helps generate more income, both on match days, from potentially larger gates but also from things like corporate boxes, but also on non match days with more facilities that can be used through the week. All this extra income is allowed to be used to fund the club's expenses and bigger income will allow us to increase the wage budget, thereby being able to afford the sort of players we would all like to come here.

Having said all of that, SL could give the manager £40m to spend on players, but it is not a lot of good if players don't want to come here, as happened with Gray and Gayle.

Another year in the championship, with hopefully some improvement and we start to look a better proposition and with more income we are better placed to attract better players. 

 

 

 

[samo II]

2 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

Cheers mate. I don't know where they shopped, other than Baldock, obviously, and Zamora. Bit of a hotch potch approach but my question is, as you mention, they get crowds of 24 25k and must have a decent budget so I'm wondering if SL is being realistic when he would like to see us challenging next year, when we have a L1 team with Kodj and two quality loans that probably won't join permanently here at the moment. 

I think a lot of folks have been (rightly) surprised at Brighton's change in fortunes this year, and as much as it might stick in the craw after last night, they really have to be admired.  Not gone mad on signing players for huge money but built a very decent looking squad.

Hopefully the redevelopment gives us a chance to compete with them.

[GrahamC]

16 minutes ago, samo II said:

I think a lot of folks have been (rightly) surprised at Brighton's change in fortunes this year, and as much as it might stick in the craw after last night, they really have to be admired.  Not gone mad on signing players for huge money but built a very decent looking squad.

Hopefully the redevelopment gives us a chance to compete with them.

They have spent fairly big though:

Baldock £2m, Murphy £1.5m both the Israelis, Hemed and Kayal were around a £1m each. Stockdale the keeper wasn't cheap, either.

The difference for me is that Baldock apart (he may have scored in both games against us but he only has one other goal in the league) they seem to have got all their deals right, pretty rare these days.

[BS4 on Tour...]

In the fluffy world I live in (much better than the real one by the way...) it just seems that Southampton, Swansea and Leicester came back from div 3 (and below) to be established premier league clubs without ruining their financial futures....surely it can be done in a low key sensible way then?!

[BS3_RED]

11 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

He has publicly said he wants us to be challenging at the top of the championship next season.

He has said we should be trying to sign the best players in L1 instead of chasing expensive quality like Gray etc.

And it is clear he wants our academy players given a chance in the first team.

Finally, Steve wants us to be "sustainable" and live within our means, whilst holding the Prem as an ultimate aim.

 

Can this be done? Does it all add up?

 

 

Short term....no chance in hell

 

Long term ...who knows. Anything is possible with the right manager and backing

[PHILINFRANCE]

8 hours ago, Big Red Rich said:

Would do you think Les Kew would make of it all Jack?!! 

Gravy

[havanatopia]

10 hours ago, ScottishRed said:

There is a strong argument that after 2017 the EPL is actually made up of 23 clubs of which 3 spend a season in the Championship every so often. The only way to break that is to spend a lot of money, sad but true.

The parachute payment, as I understand it, lasts 3 years and has been around for some years now so while that figure will roughly triple from the end of next season your analogy should state a Prem league of 29 teams not 23.

What will happen after next season is that the much celebrated, and still, relative competitiveness of the Championship will begin to erode in earnest and not only by stealth as is already happening.

Such a scenario will mean that building a team capable of promotion through an organic academy approach will be nigh on impossible.

For me Steve Lansdown tends to give out mixed signals as to how he wants to achieve Premier League status. One cannot necessarily criticise him for that given the fact that he tends to change his manager and, in so doing, its method fairly frequently and because the rules change, the prizemoney increases and the other teams' circumstances alter.

It appears his message has gone from spend to get there, under Cotterill, to grow more organically under Johnson just when the opposite is going to stand a far greater chance of success. I suspect the truth or the reality is somewhere in between; Johnson will be allowed to spend money if its right but be encouraged to push through youngsters as much as he can; getting the balance of course is notoriously difficult. And that, in itself, is probably why SL changes his views or sends out different signals so often. 

20th in the Prem = £90 million in May 2017; 1st in the Champs = £3 million. Roughly. The disparity will crystallise many an owners plan of action; those who flip flop will likely be left behind. 

[The Coach]

12 hours ago, GrahamC said:

They have spent fairly big though:

Baldock £2m, Murphy £1.5m both the Israelis, Hemed and Kayal were around a £1m each. Stockdale the keeper wasn't cheap, either.

The difference for me is that Baldock apart (he may have scored in both games against us but he only has one other goal in the league) they seem to have got all their deals right, pretty rare these days.

I don't know how much Brighton have spent in the last year. But when the likes of Rhodes being sold for £9mil, McCormack for £11mil etc. Those buys are considered pretty "cheap" now in the Championship. You have to spend at least £1mil for a half decent signing in this league. If you want to go up from this division. Each first team player you have, their value has to be worth at least £2-3mil.

The Championship is very much becoming a Premier League B Division.