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The Nightmare Scenario


old_eastender

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We lose each of our next 3 games by a single goal, MKD (who have Brentford H, Ipswich A, Forest H) win each of theirs by a single goal. We finish on 48 pts with -23 GD, they finish on 48 pts with -22 GD. We are relegated and ko next season with Accrington Stanley at AG with stadium not even half full. Meanwhile the Gas make automatic promotion and the pi55 taking is unbearable.

Yikes!

 

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If we can't get a single point against Blackburn, Huddersfield and QPR, while MK can pick up nine against the sides they have left after managing one win in 12 previous matches, then we deserve to go down in their place, and they'll have earned their safety.

But what would be the odds on that now?

It's all about perspective; Derby are in excellent form, with the win against us being their 5th in six games, while Brentford won again last night, making it four wins from five, only not managing to beat us.  

We've come up against two form teams, have fallen short, but still have our fate in our own hands.  Our next up in the shape of Blackburn are in nothing like the form of our last two, and I fancy us to 'react' in the right way and the team will get what we need.

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50 minutes ago, Thatch35 said:

LJ playing 'safe' last night cost us a point. One up front.....waste of time. Invited pressure. Nice one LJ.

And there was me thinking he played exactly the same team that stuffed Sheff Wed in our last home match!

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51 minutes ago, Thatch35 said:

LJ playing 'safe' last night cost us a point. One up front.....waste of time. Invited pressure. Nice one LJ.

Or we avoided another 4-0 thrashing that would have knocked The stuffing out of us and seriously dented our potential to get the one win we now need .

As it was we put 2 past them and only lost by a margin of 1 goal .

If and Ands ...

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4 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said:

Cotterill played it safe too when we took them on at their place. Remind me how that turned out.

Cotterill never had Tomlin, Baker, Matthews, odemwinge, O'donnel, etc!!!  one up front at home is very poor  and indeed invites pressure. Leaving yourself with only one outlet makes it so easy for defenders as they only have one option to mark, there must have been at least 3 times when Bobby Reid won the ball on the edge of our 18 yard box brought it forward then had no option as Kodge was heavily marked then checked back and got crowded out or lost the ball. With the players we currently have at our disposal PLEASE play 2 up front. Lee got his tactics spot on against Shef Wed no mistake a very well set up team, last night he made a mistake...........it happens . COYR

 

 

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3 minutes ago, EASTEND WURZEL said:

Cotterill never had Tomlin, Baker, Matthews, odemwinge, O'donnel, etc!!!  one up front at home is very poor  and indeed invites pressure. Leaving yourself with only one outlet makes it so easy for defenders as they only have one option to mark, there must have been at least 3 times when Bobby Reid won the ball on the edge of our 18 yard box brought it forward then had no option as Kodge was heavily marked then checked back and got crowded out or lost the ball. With the players we currently have at our disposal PLEASE play 2 up front. Lee got his tactics spot on against Shef Wed no mistake a very well set up team, last night he made a mistake...........it happens . COYR

 

 

Didn't hear any complaints about the formation or 'inviting pressure' at half time when they had a standing ovation off the pitch. 

For reasons unknown we then played like a pub side for the much of the second half  and threw the game away. Not sure Johnson can take the blame for that entirely. 

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1 hour ago, Thatch35 said:

LJ playing 'safe' last night cost us a point. One up front.....waste of time. Invited pressure. Nice one LJ.

Ridiculous comment.  For the first half Reid was playing as the second striker, but in any case we played the same shape that most premiership teams play, and it does ok for them.  The notion that playing only one striker is naive in the extreme.  Have you not been watching football over the last thirty years? We lost last night because Derby were a better side and both out-thought and outplayed us in the second half.  Nothing to do with the team selection.

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11 minutes ago, EASTEND WURZEL said:

Cotterill never had Tomlin, Baker, Matthews, odemwinge, O'donnel, etc!!!  one up front at home is very poor  and indeed invites pressure. Leaving yourself with only one outlet makes it so easy for defenders as they only have one option to mark, there must have been at least 3 times when Bobby Reid won the ball on the edge of our 18 yard box brought it forward then had no option as Kodge was heavily marked then checked back and got crowded out or lost the ball. With the players we currently have at our disposal PLEASE play 2 up front. Lee got his tactics spot on against Shef Wed no mistake a very well set up team, last night he made a mistake...........it happens . COYR

 

 

Cotterill did have Baker and O'Donnell, but the rest is down to LJ identifying (with Mark Ashton) and bringing in those players. Cotterill had an entire summer and most of January and brought in Kodjia- a great signing- various loan players (some who barely got on the pitch) and Garita. Cotterill also had Simon Cox and Elliott Bennett.

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2 hours ago, old_eastender said:

We lose each of our next 3 games by a single goal, MKD (who have Brentford H, Ipswich A, Forest H) win each of theirs by a single goal. We finish on 48 pts with -23 GD, they finish on 48 pts with -22 GD. We are relegated and ko next season with Accrington Stanley at AG with stadium not even half full. Meanwhile the Gas make automatic promotion and the pi55 taking is unbearable.

Yikes!

 

Maybe you should soften the blow and take a £20 bet on the above, you could take yourself and the family to the Caribbean with the winnings... Or more likely be a £20 sheet down the pan!!

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Both teams looked very much as if they were going through the motions last night. There were flashes of good football, but for the majority of the match it was pretty dull. Derby were by far the superior side second half though. 

I think both teams were of the mindset (rightly or wrongly) that where there are they will finish: Derby in the playoffs and us safe from relegation. I'm in no doubt that both teams were capable of far more than what they produced last night.

I think for us to lose 3 games against beatable opposition is highly unlikely, as even more so is MK winning their last 3. 

In terms of tactics, I think it was more a case of players having off nights. Freeman was poor (his form this season really upsets me, but that's football), as was Bryan. Tomlin never really got a look in, and the rest of the team were all average. Just one of those nights.

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30 minutes ago, EASTEND WURZEL said:

Cotterill never had Tomlin, Baker, Matthews, odemwinge, O'donnel, etc!!!  one up front at home is very poor  and indeed invites pressure. Leaving yourself with only one outlet makes it so easy for defenders as they only have one option to mark, there must have been at least 3 times when Bobby Reid won the ball on the edge of our 18 yard box brought it forward then had no option as Kodge was heavily marked then checked back and got crowded out or lost the ball. With the players we currently have at our disposal PLEASE play 2 up front. Lee got his tactics spot on against Shef Wed no mistake a very well set up team, last night he made a mistake...........it happens . COYR

 

 

Many of the most successful sides in Europe play with 1 up front! You're more likely to see a 4-2-3-1 than a 4-4-2 now. It was nothing to do with formation, Derby (like Brighton and Hull) are simply better than us at the moment and it showed.

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Beaten by a better team but IMO not disgraced. At times we played some decent football. Some of ours made too many silly mistakes but they don't do it deliberately like some of our fans think.

Derby is what we should be aiming for. Big, tough, no nonsense defenders, decent creative in midfield but up front, I would still take Kodjia over that lump Martin, who's only contribution was to continually barge into and foul both Flint and Baker.

Even a total pessimist like me, cannot see us being overhauled by MK, so early May will bring safety and a chance for the management to rebuild the squad into a force that next season, will comfortably see us mid table and perhaps sniffing around the edge of the play offs.

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8 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Many of the most successful sides in Europe play with 1 up front! You're more likely to see a 4-2-3-1 than a 4-4-2 now. It was nothing to do with formation, Derby (like Brighton and Hull) are simply better than us at the moment and it showed.

Not denying that and at the end of the day you're right , however you cant deny that playing 2 up front gives your midfield more options, and the defending team more problems particularly in game where you know the opposition will want to get the ball down and play, stretching the game leaving room for our considerable pace on the counter attack.

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1 hour ago, Murraysrightplum said:

Think a bit of tiredness creeping in. The first 11 doesn't change all that much each game as we haven't got any strength in depth in the squad. Hopefully a rest now and bounce back at the weekend

That's a big worry going into next season. It wouldn't surprise me if the squad are still largely knackered from last season. You only need to look at Chelsea to see what happens when you push a team to their limit, and then they try again next season.

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28 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

@Thatch35 making a serious effort to challenge @Robbored for the role as forum villain. 

I wonder if they have a mutual respect due to their shared passion to hate all things Johnson?

How long do you think it'll be before Thatch35 gets summoned to Lee's office for a chat?

"Are you that nasty Thatch35 character that always moans on the forum and boos the team every game?"

"You must've mistaken me for someone else."

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18 minutes ago, Loderingo said:

Both Blackburn and ourselves need a point to guarantee safety on Saturday.  Looks like a nailed on draw to me.

I was just thinking that . Mk dons are winning us and Blackburn are drawing 5 minutes to go . Could we see a non attacking last 5 mins from both sides

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