Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 Many are talking about SL as having 'more money than sense' and an awful record at picking managers. So I thought, if SL is doing it so wrong, what is the better way? Who is doing it right?? I've done a very unscientific (excuse my maths, i'm no accountant) count of how many A) Managers (inc Caretakers - some had longer stints than others) and B) Teams promoted to the premier league there have been from the teams currently in the championship and PL since the beginning of the 2012 calendar year: A) 212 Managers - Over 33 teams, that's an average of just over 6 managers per team. City is 5. B) Teams promoted to the Premier league: 14. That's a success rate of 15% promotion per manager. Not so many other people getting it right, are they? Interestingly of the teams currently in the Premier league having been promoted since 2012, the average number of managers per team is 4. This could suggest that the fewer number of managers the more chance of success you have, which is a common thought - sacking your manager rarely makes sense. So anyway - if SL has been getting it so wrong, what is the right way? Which clubs and chairmen have been getting it so right? Happy for people to disagree with me, but the way I see it, if you open your eyes to what is going on elsewhere in the country at other clubs, you'll see there is no perfect formula, and all chairmen alike are playing the managerial lottery game and as those stats above loosely show, with a 15% success rate, very rarely winning that lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 I just hope that for the next ' head coach ' SL listens to the football men he's employed to run the club and lets them do the selecting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unan Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 The teams that go up use the same manager because they're a good one. Who changes manager when you're doing well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Griffin said: The teams that go up use the same manager because they're a good one. Who changes manager when you're doing well? Southampton? Adkins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unan Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Alessandro said: Southampton? Adkins? Didn't they sack him when he was hovering over the drop zone? Successful until then, which is why they kept him, then sacked on a bad run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evocare Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 We are lucky to have SL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Hunt-Hertz Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Alessandro said: Many are talking about SL as having 'more money than sense' and an awful record at picking managers. So I thought, if SL is doing it so wrong, what is the better way? Who is doing it right?? I've done a very unscientific (excuse my maths, i'm no accountant) count of how many A) Managers (inc Caretakers - some had longer stints than others) and B) Teams promoted to the premier league there have been from the teams currently in the championship and PL since the beginning of the 2012 calendar year: A) 212 Managers - Over 33 teams, that's an average of just over 6 managers per team. City is 5. B) Teams promoted to the Premier league: 14. That's a success rate of 15% promotion per manager. Not so many other people getting it right, are they? Interestingly of the teams currently in the Premier league having been promoted since 2012, the average number of managers per team is 4. This could suggest that the fewer number of managers the more chance of success you have, which is a common thought - sacking your manager rarely makes sense. So anyway - if SL has been getting it so wrong, what is the right way? Which clubs and chairmen have been getting it so right? Happy for people to disagree with me, but the way I see it, if you open your eyes to what is going on elsewhere in the country at other clubs, you'll see there is no perfect formula, and all chairmen alike are playing the managerial lottery game and as those stats above loosely show, with a 15% success rate, very rarely winning that lottery. I`d class not getting us relegated, as a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Griffin said: Didn't they sack him when he was hovering over the drop zone? Successful until then, which is why they kept him, then sacked on a bad run? Well, taking that part aside, because debating keeping/sacking managers was not the main point of my post. What should SL do differently that every other chairman and club or so obviously getting right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unan Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Alessandro said: Well, taking that part aside, because debating keeping/sacking managers was not the main point of my post. What should SL do differently that every other chairman and club or so obviously getting right? I was only commenting on that part, I don't know about the rest & agree it's very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Mike Hunt-Hertz said: I`d class not getting us relegated, as a success. What, like last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natchfever Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Alessandro said: Well, taking that part aside, because debating keeping/sacking managers was not the main point of my post. What should SL do differently that every other chairman and club or so obviously getting right? Most don't get it right although perhaps not so many get it as consistently wrong. Possibly pay bigger bucks? Pay peanuts etc etc Now i'm neither saying the alleged £10k per week LJ is getting is peanuts, or am I calling him a monkey, but it is possible that the best coaches cost the most money and you can't turn a moderate one into somebody who will take you where you want to be, nor should you have a rookie (whoever that may be) at the helm when haven't established yourself in the second tier of English football, That just smacks of being penny wise and pound foolish. I have no idea how you recruit for success - and neither does SL. but its his money his club his way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Loon plage said: Most don't get it right although perhaps not so many get it as consistently wrong. Possibly pay bigger bucks? Pay peanuts etc etc Now i'm neither saying the alleged £10k per week LJ is getting is peanuts, or am I calling him a monkey, but it is possible that the best coaches cost the most money and you can't turn a moderate one into somebody who will take you where you want to be, nor should you have a rookie (whoever that may be) at the helm when haven't established yourself in the second tier of English football, That just smacks of being penny wise and pound foolish. I have no idea how you recruit for success - and neither does SL. but its his money his club his way. Well at least 16 chairmen of the 33 have sacked more managers than SL in that period above. So that suggests a lot are getting it consistently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstoniaTallinnRed Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, Griffin said: Didn't they sack him when he was hovering over the drop zone? Successful until then, which is why they kept him, then sacked on a bad run? Do clubs do that? Doesn't look like SL will do that yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendyredredrobin Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 The reason why Steves selection seems poor is because any decent manager would cost a fortune or would not want to come here. Perhaps it is time for a foreign manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esmond Million's Bung Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 Tinnion took over from Wilson who left a dressing room resembling alcoholics unanimous, sadly the players would never let him take their toys away and it needed somebody like GJ to sort that particular madness out and it took him a while and a bad run of results before turning it around. GJ then achieved something that only SC has since achieved and that is having a successful 2nd season after steadying the ship, something that Millen and DMC could not do and LJ seems to be carrying on that tradition at a pace. SOD didn't steady anything at all. I believe that GJ's and SC's subsequent downfall was probably more to do with ego than anything else, I believe that both increasingly thought that they were on verge of discovering the secrets of alchemy. So during the tenures of all of the above we had misery, mega misery new broom, misery, revival, success, near miss, stuttering between mainly misery and mid table averageness to mega misery, back to new broom, abject misery, thankfully new broom, revival, mega success, misery and mystery, new broom, revival. So it would appear that either pushing on in season 2 after a revival or sustaining success in season 2 has been our problem. I believe that this time around with the ground fast approaching completion and corporate talk of revenue streams etc, etc, and the P word once more being mentioned, the fans expected a manager with the sort of background and CV to make them believe that this time we might actually walk the walk for a change and we got LJ, despite MA suggesting that we had some outstanding and surprising applicants, LJ did the first bit the bit everybody listed bar SOD managed to achieve and the rest is history as they say. The problem this time around is the eye taken off of the here and now and maybe in hindsight LJ was not the manager to manage Mr Tomlin, which has become an unwanted distraction. I accept that all of the signings for the future should be a great investment for the club but a huge albatross should we get relegated. Me I am genuinely worried by our position and cannot see where our next league win is going to come from and I don't see us going on a sustained run to haul us out of this, but desperately hoping that we will, relegation would be utter disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JHAGa Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 Since the Coppell disaster, we've often appointed managers with potential instead of experience. Millen, McInnes and currently LJ all fell victim to inexperience and the pressures of Championship management. We appointed SC, who did have experience, as he was close friends with the board until they fell out and that was a success and he should have stayed. SOD is the other one who also had experience and seemed the obvious choice, he did make some decent progress here behind the scenes but couldn't sway the tide on the pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 49 minutes ago, Griffin said: The teams that go up use the same manager because they're a good one. Who changes manager when you're doing well? Watford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unan Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Watford. Well yes but that disproves the point even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shelts Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 Who appointed Cotts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Dawe Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Alessandro said: Well, taking that part aside, because debating keeping/sacking managers was not the main point of my post. What should SL do differently that every other chairman and club or so obviously getting right? Well, we don't know what other chairmen do. We are all guessing here. Did SL question/grill LJ about his long losing run at Barnsley during interview a year ago? I mean, really question him about this? Seeing as he thought it might be a bit soon in his coaching career for this job, and that young coaches "like young players, make mistakes" I would hope SL was thorough in his questioning and approach to this. Or was it a bit of a foregone conclusion. That SL decided he wanted LJ regardless, then set out to find the reasons why and what he would say to a sceptical media and fanbase - the "highly thought of," the "up and coming," the "intelligent," the "he's been around Europe," the "he did xyz at Oldham," etc etc. Did SL want to find any holes in LJ's "application"? Did he ask himself: why should I not go for Lee? Did he ask himself: is this the best man we can attract to this job? Bearing in mind his record in this, how many checks and balances did he put in to ensure he was doing the right thing? So, being thorough, unbiased (as you can hope to be), professional might be one thing. Another might be entrusting his COO with this decision, then judging his COO on the success or otherwise of his appointments. And also paying top dollar for the best COO he can get here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Meantime, the best things SL can do are what he has been doing - improving the stadium, commercial side, scouting, 'team around the first team,' employing a proper CEO, modernising what spudski likes to call the "infrastructure" etc etc - and maybe butt out of the next search for a first team coach. I do agree though that it seems to be a lottery, and there is no magic formula. Sean Dyche was pretty inexperienced when Burnley gave him a job. There does seem to be a large element of chance in all this. Is it a sixth sense, choosing the right man? If it is, it doesn't look like SL has this, sadly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natchfever Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 33 minutes ago, Alessandro said: Well at least 16 chairmen of the 33 have sacked more managers than SL in that period above. So that suggests a lot are getting it consistently wrong. And equally a lot are doing it better despite possibly not having the financial clout to compete with our owner to attract the best available at the time. I think that the club goes for the cheaper option and end up paying them off so not cheap in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, Loon plage said: And equally a lot are doing it better despite possibly not having the financial clout to compete with our owner to attract the best available at the time. I think that the club goes for the cheaper option and end up paying them off so not cheap in the long run. Who is doing it better with less financial clout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTone Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Alessandro said: Many are talking about SL as having 'more money than sense' A typical comment from those that don't have it about those that do. If he had no sense he wouldn't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jack Dawe said: Well, we don't know what other chairmen do. We are all guessing here. Did SL question/grill LJ about his long losing run at Barnsley during interview a year ago? I mean, really question him about this? Seeing as he thought it might be a bit soon in his coaching career for this job, and that young coaches "like young players, make mistakes" I would hope SL was thorough in his questioning and approach to this. Or was it a bit of a foregone conclusion. That SL decided he wanted LJ regardless, then set out to find the reasons why and what he would say to a sceptical media and fanbase - the "highly thought of," the "up and coming," the "intelligent," the "he's been around Europe," the "he did xyz at Oldham," etc etc. Did SL want to find any holes in LJ's "application"? Did he ask himself: why should I not go for Lee? Did he ask himself: is this the best man we can attract to this job? Bearing in mind his record in this, how many checks and balances did he put in to ensure he was doing the right thing? So, being thorough, unbiased (as you can hope to be), professional might be one thing. Another might be entrusting his COO with this decision, then judging his COO on the success or otherwise of his appointments. And also paying top dollar for the best COO he can get here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Meantime, the best things SL can do are what he has been doing - improving the stadium, commercial side, scouting, 'team around the first team,' employing a proper CEO, modernising what spudski likes to call the "infrastructure" etc etc - and maybe butt out of the next search for a first team coach. I do agree though that it seems to be a lottery, and there is no magic formula. Sean Dyche was pretty inexperienced when Burnley gave him a job. There does seem to be a large element of chance in all this. Is it a sixth sense, choosing the right man? If it is, it doesn't look like SL has this, sadly for us. Very fair post - except the last sentance, there should be a 'yet' in there....we can live in hope, right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natchfever Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Alessandro said: Who is doing it better with less financial clout? How many billionaires are on that list ? Does FFP apply to non playing staff - genuine question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Loon plage said: How many billionaires are on that list ? Does FFP apply to non playing staff - genuine question. We have a billionaire owner maybe, but hasn't ploughed billions into the club. As I said in another thread, we may be spending more money than ever before, but that's just to keep up. We are still only middle of the road in terms of championship team spending - last summer £215m was spent by championship clubs, we contributed only 7/8m or so to that. Wolves spent that on one player. So as I say, who is really doing better than us on a smaller budget? Not just a few points higher than us in the league better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esmond Million's Bung Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Alessandro said: We have a billionaire owner maybe, but hasn't ploughed billions into the club. As I said in another thread, we may be spending more money than ever before, but that's just to keep up. We are still only middle of the road in terms of championship team spending - last summer £215m was spent by championship clubs, we contributed only 7/8m or so to that. Wolves spent that on one player. So as I say, who is really doing better than us on a smaller budget? Not just a few points higher than us in the league better... Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted January 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Esmond Million's Bung said: Or not. Season's not over yet. And if it was we would starting in the Championship again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlands Robin Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 All our spells in the second division have pretty much seen us go backwards from the moment we enter the division. Jordan's promotion team of 89-90 were lead by Lumsden, Smith, Osman and Jordan (again) to poorer and poorer performances. John Ward's promotion side of 97-98 seemed on the cusp of turning things around when Ward walked out and Lenartson took over. GJ's promotion side almost made the Prem before sliding backwards until the SoD debacle. Virtually all of the managers listed during this period started by removing the threat of relegation in their first season and leaving the club in danger of relegation a season or less later. LJ seems to be following this trend. If you look at our successful managers from 82 onwards, they have all achieved promotion within their first two years as manager. Cooper, Jordan, Ward, Johnson and Cotts. Only Cooper and Johnson were still in charge one season after promotion. The big question is why have we managed to find 5 successful managers below the top two divisions (only Jordan in his second spell, Pulis, Wilson, Tinnion and SoD failed to get us promoted) yet we are awful at finding managers to make us a force in the top two divisions. Arguably out of all of the appointments since 82 its only GJ who we can describe as being anywhere near successful. So, half of the managers we've signed since 82 have achieved a promotion in Divs 3/4 and only 1 out 11 (not including LJ) managers who have managed us in Div 2 have come anywhere near close. Very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esmond Million's Bung Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Alessandro said: Season's not over yet. And if it was we would starting in the Championship again. I have asked a few times (without reply) for somebody to explain to the 'majority', what have you seen that they haven't that gives you confidence that LJ can actually turn this around?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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