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The Humble Realist

New LJ Poll now we 're safe....ish   

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17 hours ago, Judda said:

Not necessarily. What if mid season was just a (long) blip? The rest of the time he has had with us hasn't been too bad...

The fact that we were never hammered in the bad run shows the players were good enough. Very poor Game management was the problem and that has improved. 

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2 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

Do you seriously believe if we keep LJ there is the slightest prospect that in the future a higher placed club, PL even- will attempt to prise him away?

From his previous record and what we've seen at AG that's absurd. His record losing runs both at Barnsley and City are millstones around his neck regarding future managerial progression and will remain a barrier to potential employers unless, and until, he achieves something palpable in the game. If he'd been sacked after the PNE game his stock would have been so low he may well have been unemployable at football League level. 

At best he'll be viewed as very inconsistent and highly unpredictable, a master of self promotion with illusions of coaching grandeur, and that's without taking into account any problems behind the scenes at AG this season that may have become common knowledge within the game.

The one predictable thing we know about about LJ is that any good form he presides over will inevitably be followed by a disastrous run, so the current comparatively outlandish spell of good form doesn't augur well for KO in August when no doubt he'll have yet more numerous new signings to bed in, or more likely, sideline for lengthy spells on an apparent whim.

Bristol City, at Championship level, will be the biggest, and highest placed, club LJ will ever manage imo. It remains incredible he ever got the job.

 

 

 

God, I hope so. Leeds appointed Dave Hockaday, so miracles do occasionally happen.

Imagine getting shot, and getting compo too!

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7 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I think we were looking at LJ's league record which @MichaelRobartes has kindly confirmed is 35%. if you want to throw in a few wins against L1/L2 teams in cup competitions to boost it up a bit then that's up to you buddy.

That's his full record here or do we longer no count all results including cup?

In that case Cotterills record isn't 45% as the JPT is just a cup ;)

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23 hours ago, Jacki said:

I went for option 3. I would have got rid after Cardiff, and my God that 23 gave spell was dismal. Even after Preston 4 short games ago I'd have pulled the trigger. 

The last few performances have, however, changed my stance slightly. Not because I'm fickle or daft, but because the effort, style of play, and application shown in the last 4 home games have been superb. In those games we have played better football than at any time this season. Back in August and September, we were sneaking wins we scarcely deserved with a good 10 minutes here or there, and it was only really at Fulham away that we strung together a strong 90 minutes.

Lately though that's changed. We're playing 2 up top, going at teams with energy and pace and at times it's been a joy to watch. Whether that's been forced on LJ in the same way the Barnsley fans speak of prior to his departure there we'll never know.

I would now give him the opening 10 games of next season and see what happens. There are many things we need to improve on, basic defending , eradicating individual errors and our laughable away form amongst them, but at least we're now in a position where we'll almost certainly be sorting those things out in the Championship. LJ deserves a bit of credit for that. 

Pretty much how I am seeing this. Never really wanted him sacked, as it's another failure, but couldn't see how he could stay either. Preston was the last straw, really couldn't see anywhere back from there, yet here we are.

I think the fans have been more than patient, but that patience will not happen again. He has used his get out of jail free card and now has to use all this experience to make much better use of the riches at his disposal next season.

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15 minutes ago, Emperor Palpatine said:

That's his full record here or do we longer no count all results including cup?

In that case Cotterills record isn't 45% as the JPT is just a cup ;)

The original comment I was responding to was from @ChippenhamRed who stated: "His overall record here is nowhere near as terrible as some make out - a 40% win rate, all in the second tier."

His win rate in the second tier is 35%, as I've said all along. Let's just leave it there :thumbsup:

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6 hours ago, NickJ said:

If your inference is that it is SL's money that finances the club, that is incorrect.

The majority of SL's money has been invested into an ASSET, ie the stadium, which he effectively owns and could sell.

The supporters have contributed a significantly higher amount in terms of income which is used to finance the club.

As such, we deserve better than a successful manager being not backed, then sacked, and replaced with somebody who had a far inferior record at the same level and tacitly accepts that the majority of his purchases are not good enough.

Johnson OUT, no question, and more to the point, SL should seriously question himself as to whether his continued support for a manager who has failed so badly relative to the resources provided, is in the best interests of the club and its supporters.

LJ currently has a far superior win ratio (40.98%) in the Championship than Steve Cotterill has - 32.35% at Burnley, 31.58% at Forrest, I don't think his time with us in the Championship has dragged the overall average up.  But that doesn't fit with your agenda.

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Just now, Fishponds_Red said:

LJ currently has a far superior win ratio (40.98%) in the Championship than Steve Cotterill has - 32.35% at Burnley, 31.58% at Forrest, I don't think his time with us in the Championship has dragged the overall average up.  But that doesn't fit with your agenda.

His win ratio in The Championship (league games) is 35%.

This season it's 31%.

Average of 1.16 points per game this season.

Always best to get your facts right before accusing people of having agendas.

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On 23/04/2017 at 18:54, Port Said Red said:

And we didn't sell any players in that time?

Thats not the point, 12 million on players is still a lot more dough then many clubs have spent at this level, many clubs that have had much better seasons than us.. I would have bombed him out weeks ago and how he survived the PNE game is an absolute myth but there we go..

The fact we haven't gone down obviously means that Lansdown will keep him but its just scary as to when the trigger will get pulled, he survived so much this season you genuinely wonder what he has to do next season to get the boot. Break his OWN new record of defeat's maybe?!

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Mentioned before?

Gary Rowett was proposed as a replacement for LJ and since starting with Derby: W 3, D 2 and L 2

LJ, in the same period, W 4, D 1, L 2

Not a lot in it but tends to point to a turnaround in fortunes for LJ.

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7 hours ago, NickJ said:

At the moment, you are right, we are in the minority.

But about 3-4 weeks ago (following Brentford and Preston) we were in the overwhelming majority.

Many people are fickle, but it will take a lot more than an unbeaten run of 4 games (all against lower third teams it should be said), where we are still not mathematically safe from relegation with just 2 games to go, to change my mind.

I have been unwavering in my belief from day one that Johnson will not be a successful manager for us, and don't see that changing any time soon.

From a position of massive opportunity following League One, two wasted seasons will become three next season. 

 

Shame Steve Cotterill wasted the position of massive opportunity then.

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44 minutes ago, bris red said:

Thats not the point, 12 million on players is still a lot more dough then many clubs have spent at this level, many clubs that have had much better seasons than us.. I would have bombed him out weeks ago and how he survived the PNE game is an absolute myth but there we go..

The fact we haven't gone down obviously means that Lansdown will keep him but its just scary as to when the trigger will get pulled, he survived so much this season you genuinely wonder what he has to do next season to get the boot. Break his OWN new record of defeat's maybe?!

A large percentage of the 12m was spent on players that we are looking to develop though. Whether that was a wasted investment is still not known.

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46 minutes ago, cynic said:

LJs 41% win ratio seems ok to me.

Better than SC at about 32%.

 

 

But to lose THAT amount of games in a row? Come on mate that was horrendous. He couldn't even stop the rot and get us to grind a draw out in amongst it. Win ratios dont tell the full story for me.

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6 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Very true and makes it all the more absurd that a number of our fans seems to have forgotten this already and now are seemingly prepared to back him to continue managing us next season. Incredible.

"A number of our fans" = actually now a considerable majority.

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Apologies that I've not taken the time read all the posts.  I'm a couple of weeks behind, and I don't have the time to catch up at the mo.

I've been very critical of Johnson, and I'm not changing my view of his tenure so far.  For me he lacks the courage of his convictions and principles, which I think some of that comes from his lack of years, maturity and man-to-man exoerience.  The other bit of him is the bit if bullshit in him.  I can handle the technical / science stuff, that is good to listen to.  It's the contradictions around selections, trust etc that gets me.

Whether he's stumbled on a team or not, I slightly grudgingly give him credit.  If I blamed him (and not the players) when we weren't getting results, I'd be a hypocrite to not give him any credit for turning it around.  I really thought we'd be playing Brum needing either a win or results to go our way.  We are safe (not mathematically I know).

What he does have in his favour is:

- an owner who's backed him, and in some ways he's repaid that faith in an overall very disappointing season, from what could've been.  A lot of us hoped for a mid-table, relegation battle-free season, and the good start lofted those ambitions.  The reality check is that this is a tough division, but sides like Preston and Barnsley have showed us you can progress quickly.

- a 25+ goal striker on loan.  Although I don't think Tammy will be back, there is something nagging at me that says you wouldn't rule it out 100%

- young players starting to emerge, both in the first team (Brownhill, O'Dowda) and knocking on the match day squad too (Vyner, Moore - I really hope, McCoulsky).  I'm missing some I expect too.  This will allow a better concentration on signings in the summer.

So, it looks like he's here to stay....lucky imho...but sometimes you need luck.

I've consistently said he now needs to learn from his mistakes, and not repeat them.  That is the key for me.  He needs to own the dressing room.  He might need to re-think the need for opinionated or egotistical players and go a bit younger (but with quality) that he can spin his beliefs to.  Will be interesting to see whether the likes of Tomlin remain here.  Personally I'd get shot.

So, I'm still nowhere near convinced, but if he's sticking around, what can I do / say.  My passion for what happens on the pitch remains.

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2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Apologies that I've not taken the time read all the posts.  I'm a couple of weeks behind, and I don't have the time to catch up at the mo.

I've been very critical of Johnson, and I'm not changing my view of his tenure so far.  For me he lacks the courage of his convictions and principles, which I think some of that comes from his lack of years, maturity and man-to-man exoerience.  The other bit of him is the bit if bullshit in him.  I can handle the technical / science stuff, that is good to listen to.  It's the contradictions around selections, trust etc that gets me.

Whether he's stumbled on a team or not, I slightly grudgingly give him credit.  If I blamed him (and not the players) when we weren't getting results, I'd be a hypocrite to not give him any credit for turning it around.  I really thought we'd be playing Brum needing either a win or results to go our way.  We are safe (not mathematically I know).

What he does have in his favour is:

- an owner who's backed him, and in some ways he's repaid that faith in an overall very disappointing season, from what could've been.  A lot of us hoped for a mid-table, relegation battle-free season, and the good start lofted those ambitions.  The reality check is that this is a tough division, but sides like Preston and Barnsley have showed us you can progress quickly.

- a 25+ goal striker on loan.  Although I don't think Tammy will be back, there is something nagging at me that says you wouldn't rule it out 100%

- young players starting to emerge, both in the first team (Brownhill, O'Dowda) and knocking on the match day squad too (Vyner, Moore - I really hope, McCoulsky).  I'm missing some I expect too.  This will allow a better concentration on signings in the summer.

So, it looks like he's here to stay....lucky imho...but sometimes you need luck.

I've consistently said he now needs to learn from his mistakes, and not repeat them.  That is the key for me.  He needs to own the dressing room.  He might need to re-think the need for opinionated or egotistical players and go a bit younger (but with quality) that he can spin his beliefs to.  Will be interesting to see whether the likes of Tomlin remain here.  Personally I'd get shot.

So, I'm still nowhere near convinced, but if he's sticking around, what can I do / say.  My passion for what happens on the pitch remains.

Nice to have you back on Dave - and a good read as normal 

Agree virtually word for word :thumbsup:

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19 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

"Barely survived" doesn't tell the whole story though.  Last 17 games: W6 D6 L5.  That's mid-table form and much closer to expectations this season, over a significant sample size of games.  It is not unreasonable that many people (myself included) who wanted him sacked in the midst of our terrible run would now reconsider in light of the recovery he has overseen.  Of course he deserved criticism for the poor run, but equally some of us are also willing to recognise that turning that around was worthy of some praise.  If we had sacked Johnson 17 games ago, we would now be saying "look what a good manager was able to do with that side".  His overall record here is nowhere near as terrible as some make out - a 40% win rate, all in the second tier.  If you can have a 40% win rate having also had a run of 1 win in 17, then you must have been doing something right the rest of the time.

It's only 40% due to the lack of draws. 

Win or Loae is the LJ way 

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17 hours ago, Fishponds_Red said:

LJ currently has a far superior win ratio (40.98%) in the Championship than Steve Cotterill has - 32.35% at Burnley, 31.58% at Forrest, I don't think his time with us in the Championship has dragged the overall average up.  But that doesn't fit with your agenda.

I was not comparing win ratios in the Championship (where incidentally Cotterill at Burnley had to contend with best players being sold as they were a selling club at the time, their forums confirm this; Forest was a mess; at Bristol City he was "sabotaged" after promotion if you believe the stories which I do).

I was making the point that Cotterill's record in League One was far superior to that of Johnson's, so on what possible basis was Johnson appointed in preference to Cotterill, bearing in mind that the only thing Johnson could be judged on was his 36% win ratio in League One.

My agenda is wanting the best manager; Johnson will never be that.

 

15 hours ago, cynic said:

LJs 41% win ratio seems ok to me.

Better than SC at about 32%.

 

 

15 hours ago, cynic said:

Exactly and Rowett has a meagre 25% win ratio in the championship - far less than LJs 49%.

Not sure where your ratios come from but way out. For the record the overall win ratios are:

Rowett 42%

Cotterill 41%

Johnson 36%

 

15 hours ago, Alessandro said:

Shame Steve Cotterill wasted the position of massive opportunity then.

Well, that's if you believe the fiasco of summer 2015 was down to him.

25 minutes ago, MichaelRobartes said:

Not sure where people are getting the 40% win ratio from.

Making it up I'd say!

 

Harry (win ratio 40% mainly in the top division) has only good things to say about Cotterill as a coach. I think he knows a thing or two about management.

Mind you, for balance, Mark "who?" Ashton speaks very highly of Johnson and apparently he is "highly regarded".............

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14 minutes ago, NickJ said:

Harry (win ratio 40% mainly in the top division) has only good things to say about Cotterill as a coach. I think he knows a thing or two about management.

Mind you, for balance, Mark "who?" Ashton speaks very highly of Johnson and apparently he is "highly regarded".............

Kenny Dalglish was reported to have suggested LJ to Oldham Athletic but what does he know about football?

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1 minute ago, NickJ said:

"was reported to have"

No doubt there is a link to this?

The People, March 2013: https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-323378193.html

Daily Mail, February 2015: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2953091/Lee-Johnson-Britain-s-youngest-manager-33-Oldham-one-experienced.html

Oldham Chronicle, February 2015: http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/news-features/10/oldham-athletic-news/90500/club-in-much-better-shape-after-johnson

Yorkshire Post, February 2015: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/football/barnsley-fc/ambitious-johnson-prepared-to-tackle-all-problems-head-on-1-7126845

Yes the Oldham Chronicle and Yorkshire Post may have stemmed from the Daily Mail piece but it is worth nothing it was written by Mike Keegan, previously Oldham reporter at the Manchester Evening News

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22 minutes ago, View from the Dolman said:

The People, March 2013: https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-323378193.html

Daily Mail, February 2015: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2953091/Lee-Johnson-Britain-s-youngest-manager-33-Oldham-one-experienced.html

Oldham Chronicle, February 2015: http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/news-features/10/oldham-athletic-news/90500/club-in-much-better-shape-after-johnson

Yorkshire Post, February 2015: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/football/barnsley-fc/ambitious-johnson-prepared-to-tackle-all-problems-head-on-1-7126845

Yes the Oldham Chronicle and Yorkshire Post may have stemmed from the Daily Mail piece but it is worth nothing it was written by Mike Keegan, previously Oldham reporter at the Manchester Evening News

Yes fair enough and I have seen those before, I was hoping there would be an actual quote from Dalglish somewhere. My reading is Dalglish didn't exactly recommend him for the job, although he did endorse his coaching from a few sessions he had seen and Johnson - fair play to him - capitalised with a slick presentation to get the job.

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1 hour ago, NickJ said:

I was not comparing win ratios in the Championship (where incidentally Cotterill at Burnley had to contend with best players being sold as they were a selling club at the time, their forums confirm this; Forest was a mess; at Bristol City he was "sabotaged" after promotion if you believe the stories which I do).

I was making the point that Cotterill's record in League One was far superior to that of Johnson's, so on what possible basis was Johnson appointed in preference to Cotterill, bearing in mind that the only thing Johnson could be judged on was his 36% win ratio in League One.

My agenda is wanting the best manager; Johnson will never be that.

 

 

Not sure where your ratios come from but way out. For the record the overall win ratios are:

Rowett 42%

Cotterill 41%

Johnson 36%

 

Well, that's if you believe the fiasco of summer 2015 was down to him.

Making it up I'd say!

 

Harry (win ratio 40% mainly in the top division) has only good things to say about Cotterill as a coach. I think he knows a thing or two about management.

Mind you, for balance, Mark "who?" Ashton speaks very highly of Johnson and apparently he is "highly regarded".............

I don't

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1 hour ago, NickJ said:

Not sure where your ratios come from but way out. For the record the overall win ratios are:

Rowett 42%

Cotterill 41% - ??

Johnson 36%

 

Not sure where you get your ratios from (I do actually, selectively) but they are way out. You replied to Cynic who was talking about championship ratios:

Johnson is 36%, yes. (21 wins in 61 championship games)

Cotterill is 29%. (92 in 308 games) and was 15% for City in the Championship (4 wins in 26 games).

 

Lots of different win lose ratio's flying around. These are the real ones:

  • Rowett - 39% (45 in 113)
  • Johnson - 36% (21 in 61)
  • Cotterill - 29% (92 in 308)

 

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8 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

Not sure where you get your ratios from (I do actually, selectively) but they are way out. You replied to Cynic who was talking about championship ratios:

Johnson is 36%, yes. (21 wins in 61 championship games)

Cotterill is 29%. (92 in 308 games) and was 15% for City in the Championship (4 wins in 26 games).

 

Lots of different win lose ratio's flying around. These are the real ones:

  • Rowett - 39% (45 in 113)
  • Johnson - 36% (21 in 61)
  • Cotterill - 29% (92 in 308)

 

All these stats from the pro and anti camps is interesting and of course open to interpretation. Equally, depending upon who's agenda it suits, this forum either does or does not represent the wider fanbase and therefore the fact that 65% of people who can be bothered to vote on here are broadly dismissive of Johnson's performance can be dismissed with ease by the Johnson acolytes.

What is however indisputable, is the fact that the head coach has very very nearly taken us down, despite unprecedented backting, and that alone should persuade anyone not relying upon blind faith in Mr Lansdown's judgement, that we have the wrong man at the helm.

I personally see no merit in letting him go out and buy again, but that is almost certainly what the owner of the club will support.

The nasty shock to the owner will be the overblown payroll due to unwanted recent recruits, and loss on transfer dealings that will ram FFP down the throat of "the project"

Its a JOHNSON OUT for me, but each to their own.

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Quite funny how some people are making out that a 35% win rate isn't a decent record at Championship level. And it's actually 39% overall but we opt to discount cup games now because we need any excuse not to give LJ any credit, eh? It honestly astonishes me how some people can't let go of a very bad run of results even when it was months ago and we've since recovered. I'm not saying LJ needs full backing from everyone but to twist everything you possibly can into a negative is really quite sad.

 

To the people saying LJ spent money, welcome to the Champinship in this day and age. Wolves are a place above us and spent £15M on one player. We had a negative net spend and are currently in a similar position to last season. No real shock there, seems reasonable to me. Even top English clubs like Liverpool and Tottenham struggled to adapt after spending a lot of money when they lost Suarez and Bale respectively.

 

I get criticism of the bad run we went on, everyone does, LJ does, SL does, it goes without saying. However, failure to acknowledge the good work he did before and after it just demonstrates how some people have agendas. A sole focus on negativity. Also notable how most of these people seem to have some misplaced thought process that we should be at the top end of the table. It is by no means impossible, but it's as if they think we're in League One and not one of the most competitive divisions in the world. Most teams are on a similar level and have the same expectations. Look at the clubs around us, Forest, Birmingham, Wolves, Blackburn. It is the aim to be challenging at the top end of the table (we would have done if we hadn't sold Kodjia late in August imo) but we have no given right to be there. Some people really need to tone in their expectations. Like I said, no problem in wanting us to be competing at the top end, that's the ambition, but the expectation from some is naive at best.

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23 minutes ago, Loon plage said:

All these stats from the pro and anti camps is interesting and of course open to interpretation. Equally, depending upon who's agenda it suits, this forum either does or does not represent the wider fanbase and therefore the fact that 65% of people who can be bothered to vote on here are broadly dismissive of Johnson's performance can be dismissed with ease by the Johnson acolytes.

On this occasion I wasn't put the stats in any other way than to just show the facts, as too many incorrect stats were flying around. I'm not arguing for or against anyone.

What is however indisputable, is the fact that the head coach has very very nearly taken us down, despite unprecedented backting, and that alone should persuade anyone not relying upon blind faith in Mr Lansdown's judgement, that we have the wrong man at the helm.

Not sure how you can define, very very nearly taken us down, a season is played over 46 games and currently there are 7 teams below us in the table. If i'm correct we spent two games all season in the relegation zone. 

I personally see no merit in letting him go out and buy again, but that is almost certainly what the owner of the club will support.

For the first and last 12 games of this season we've had a 45% win ratio, thats upper mid table form, possibly playoff form. There are signs progress is being and can be made, what happened in the middle is of discussion, but a small corner has been turned.

The nasty shock to the owner will be the overblown payroll due to unwanted recent recruits, and loss on transfer dealings that will ram FFP down the throat of "the project"

We are still in the black on transfer dealings this season, so not sure where this comes from? Not sure which recruits are unwanted either - I can only think of one 'Johnson' signing who is likely to leave and that is Engvall. 

Its a JOHNSON OUT for me, but each to their own.

 

 

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