The last 10 games...what a squandering of an opportunity.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Following on from my Wolves thread, cast your mind back about 2 months, give or take a day or 2, to when we beat Reading. On the crest of a wave, great great form- a mouthwatering 2 legged tie v Man City just around the corner.

We had some huge gaps, some excellent margins for error at that time. For example:

• 6 points above Sheff Utd
• 9 ahead of Middlesborough AND Aston Villa.
• 10 ahead of Preston.
• 12 ahead of Fulham.
• 13 ahead of Brentford.
• Hell, even though they are an outside bet- a massive 17 ahead of Norwich.

This was after 24 games...we have lost this and then some in the last 10. We had better GD than them too, than all those listed.

Now, the last 10- top 14 sides, why not??:

• Aston Villa 25 points + 13 GD
• Fulham- 22 points +18 GD
• Millwall 21 Points +6 GD
• Cardiff- 20 points + 10 GD
• Wolves 18 points +5 GD
• Norwich 17 points +3 GD
• Brentford 16 points + 4 GD
• Derby 15 points +5 GD
• Middlesbrough 14 points + 3 GD
• Preston 14 points +3 GD
• Ipswich 12 points -2 GD
• Sheff Utd 11 points -3 GD (9 games played, game in hand tonight).
• Leeds 7 points -6 GD
• US 7 points -7 GD

Definitely don't consider Millwall to be playoff contenders, and Ipswich, Norwich and Brentford- well it will be tough for them but the gap isn't huge. Leeds likewise.

Our form...GJ used to measure in 10 game blocks. Well...Actually our form is probably 2nd or 3rd- bottom 5 at best- in the League over this period. The depth of decline is staggering.

[BRISTOL86]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Following on from my Wolves thread, cast your mind back about 2 months, give or take a day or 2, to when we beat Reading. On the crest of a wave, great great form- a mouthwatering 2 legged tie v Man City just around the corner.

We had some huge gaps, some excellent margins for error at that time. For example:

• 6 points above Sheff Utd
• 9 ahead of Middlesborough AND Aston Villa.
• 10 ahead of Preston.
• 12 ahead of Fulham.
• 13 ahead of Brentford.
• Hell, even though they are an outside bet- a massive 17 ahead of Norwich.

This was after 24 games...we have lost this and then some in the last 10. We had better GD than them too, than all those listed.

Now, the last 10- top 14 sides, why not??:

• Aston Villa 25 points + 13 GD
• Fulham- 22 points +18 GD
• Millwall 21 Points +6 GD
• Cardiff- 20 points + 10 GD
• Wolves 18 points +5 GD
• Norwich 17 points +3 GD
• Brentford 16 points + 4 GD
• Derby 15 points +5 GD
• Middlesbrough 14 points + 3 GD
• Preston 14 points +3 GD
• Ipswich 12 points -2 GD
• Sheff Utd 11 points -3 GD (9 games played, game in hand tonight).
• Leeds 7 points -6 GD
• US 7 points -7 GD

Definitely don't consider Millwall to be playoff contenders, and Ipswich, Norwich and Brentford- well it will be tough for them but the gap isn't huge. Leeds likewise.

Our form...GJ used to measure in 10 game blocks. Well...Actually our form is probably 2nd or 3rd- bottom 5 at best- in the League over this period. The depth of decline is staggering.

Only team worse than us over the last ten games? Saturday’s opposition! 

Let us battle!

[JamesBCFC]

3 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Only team worse than us over the last ten games? Saturday’s opposition! 

Let us battle!

Everyone's a winner.

The 'loser' lays claim to being the best at losing matches over the last 10 games.

[reddogkev]

Don't dwell on the past, no point!  Look ahead to the future.  March gives us the chance to start building some impressive form again.

The talent within this group of players is still there and all it needs is a good win against Wednesday to kick it all off again.

[054123]

12 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Don't dwell on the past, no point!  Look ahead to the future.  March gives us the chance to start building some impressive form again.

The talent within this group of players is still there and all it needs is a good win against Wednesday to kick it all off again.

I agree, but you have to admit these past 2 months has seen a staggering drop in form. It' not a 'small blip' and I wonder why it's happened?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Maybe it IS the pressing game...combined with injuries and Cup run.

It's very hard to explain it fully, but it's telling that a year ago we had a thread on a high pressing game and concession of late goals- a thread I found when looking for something else.

[reddogkev]

4 minutes ago, 054123 said:

I agree, but you have to admit these past 2 months has seen a staggering drop in form. It' not a 'small blip' and I wonder why it's happened?

The strange drop in form is bizarre, and has done it's best to undo all of our good work.  Luckily, if we start playing like we did before Wolves again, our form and momentum may take us all the way to Wembley.  I can't bloody wait for the Wednesday game to see if we get the much needed win.

[reddogkev]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Maybe it IS the pressing game...combined with injuries and Cup run.

It's very hard to explain it fully, but it's telling that a year ago we had a thread on a high pressing game and concession of late goals- a thread I found when looking for something else.

So perhaps the high-pressing game needs a managed strategy of rest - perhaps something like use the high-press against every other team and find a suitable plan B for games when players look jaded.

[054123]

1 minute ago, reddogkev said:

The strange drop in form is bizarre, and has done it's best to undo all of our good work.  Luckily, if we start playing like we did before Wolves again, our form and momentum may take us all the way to Wembley.  I can't bloody wait for the Wednesday game to see if we get the much needed win.

I yhink the diffetencr this year is that we know we have it about us to compete at top 6 level. 

Lee just needs to address the problem and get us back on track. 

I'm sure he can.

[BRISTOL86]

16 minutes ago, 054123 said:

I agree, but you have to admit these past 2 months has seen a staggering drop in form. It' not a 'small blip' and I wonder why it's happened?

I think it’s a combination of factors in all honesty 

- Mental effect of the Wolves capitulation

- Physical and mental effect of the cup heroics

- Apalling luck on the injury front

- A few tactical mistakes in a couple of games

Take all that and combine it with the inherent competitiveness of the championship and I think it goes a good way to explaining a poor patch. I don’t believe there’s an underlying root cause that needs weeding out, as such. 

[Londoner]

Poor tactics. Shouldn' have changed system to accommdate diedhiou

[Mr Popodopolous]

16 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

So perhaps the high-pressing game needs a managed strategy of rest - perhaps something like use the high-press against every other team and find a suitable plan B for games when players look jaded.

I think it might. Maybe apply the high-press, but also mix it with a counter-attacking approach in game.#

Maybe something like first half press high, then second half, play a mix of possession and counter-attacking if we are leading- we are in fact very capable on the break or have been this season.

A problem I see with it is just how much emphasis was put on Plan A- LJ, quite rightly in most respects, this side was drilled and drilled and drilled with Plan A...perhaps not quite enough time was focused on alternative shapes? (I remember posting something like this back in August but would have to find it later).

[old_eastender]

For me it's been all about the last 5 games that have really cost us and although it won't be popular for me the blame lays firmly at LJs door:

Bolton away - 3 pts dropped, Moving Korey out of CM to cover RB was a disaster, should have just bought Mags in for the suspended Baker as we were never going to be under a lot of pressure anyway.

Sunderland home - 2 pts dropped, really poor use of subs, LJ even owned up this one himself!

Leeds away - 2 pts dropped, lack of use of subs in time when Fammy was clearly all in and Brownhill struggling with a knock. Make the subs whilst still 2 up win the game.

Fulham home - no complaints, decent performance by all accounts and good point (I didn't watch that game).

Cardiff away - 3 pts dropped, awful tactics, Diony & Fammy played the wrong way around, played right into Warnocks hands.

If we had those 10 points dropped we would still be in the hunt for 2nd, instead of clinging onto the last play-off space. I reckon all the well-earned plaudits for LJ from the cup games went to his head and he suddenly started trying to play the master tactician instead of just keeping with the winning formula that had served us so well.

If LJ can get back to doing the basics well, we can still get that play-off space.

 

 

[Bar BS3]

There’s no doubt that it’s been a bad run of results, although only 1 game (Villa away) has seen us beaten by more than the one goal. 

It’s a division of fine margins and they’ve been going against us recently. Arguably we benefited from a few earlier in the season. 

For underdogs to succeed, they often need the rub of the green and good fortune on their side. 

The fact is, we are still in 6th place at the moment. IF we can start racking up some points again, we have every chance of a top 6 finish. IF our poor run continues then we don’t deserve a top 6 finish and will arguably level out to our far more natural/expected kind of league placing. 

Not keeping up exceptional over achievement isn’t necessarily “throwing it away” it’s just a case of not being able to over achieve all season. 

There’s a long way to go yet and it’s far from over..! 

[Bar BS3]

5 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

For me it's been all about the last 5 games that have really cost us and although it won't be popular for me the blame lays firmly at LJs door:

Bolton away - 3 pts dropped, Moving Korey out of CM to cover RB was a disaster, should have just bought Mags in for the suspended Baker as we were never going to be under a lot of pressure anyway.

Sunderland home - 2 pts dropped, really poor use of subs, LJ even owned up this one himself!

Leeds away - 2 pts dropped, lack of use of subs in time when Fammy was clearly all in and Brownhill struggling with a knock. Make the subs whilst still 2 up win the game.

Fulham home - no complaints, decent performance by all accounts and good point (I didn't watch that game).

Cardiff away - 3 pts dropped, awful tactics, Diony & Fammy played the wrong way around, played right into Warnocks hands.

If we had those 10 points dropped we would still be in the hunt for 2nd, instead of clinging onto the last play-off space. I reckon all the well-earned plaudits for LJ from the cup games went to his head and he suddenly started trying to play the master tactician instead of just keeping with the winning formula that had served us so well.

If LJ can get back to doing the basics well, we can still get that play-off space.

 

 

You can’t lose a game 1-0 and claim it was 3 points dropped! At no point did we have 3 points “to drop” a 1-0 defeat is 1 point dropped. ie: losing the draw. 

Yes, we’ve dropped points, but you can’t just say that if we’d won all our games we’d have more points..! 

Definitely Sunderland (although massively unlucky, we didn’t help ourselves, and to a far lesser extent, Leeds - they were both points dropped. Fulham was a point gained. Bolton & Cardiff were opportunities not taken. 

[JamesBCFC]

20 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

You can’t lose a game 1-0 and claim it was 3 points dropped! At no point did we have 3 points “to drop” a 1-0 defeat is 1 point dropped. ie: losing the draw. 

Yes, we’ve dropped points, but you can’t just say that if we’d won all our games we’d have more points..! 

Definitely Sunderland (although massively unlucky, we didn’t help ourselves, and to a far lesser extent, Leeds - they were both points dropped. Fulham was a point gained. Bolton & Cardiff were opportunities not taken. 

I lost several million quid the other day.

I dont do the lottery, but the numbers I'd have picked if I did do it came up.

[reddogkev]

44 minutes ago, Bar BS3 said:

There’s no doubt that it’s been a bad run of results, although only 1 game (Villa away) has seen us beaten by more than the one goal. 

It’s a division of fine margins and they’ve been going against us recently. Arguably we benefited from a few earlier in the season. 

For underdogs to succeed, they often need the rub of the green and good fortune on their side. 

The fact is, we are still in 6th place at the moment. IF we can start racking up some points again, we have every chance of a top 6 finish. IF our poor run continues then we don’t deserve a top 6 finish and will arguably level out to our far more natural/expected kind of league placing. 

Not keeping up exceptional over achievement isn’t necessarily “throwing it away” it’s just a case of not being able to over achieve all season. 

There’s a long way to go yet and it’s far from over..! 

All too often posts of wisdom get lost amongst the sheer quantity of threads / responses - but your response above should be pinned to the top of the board!

Your comment about not being able to keep up exceptional over achievement is on the money and something I haven't considered.  We were playing way above our station and now our expected level / standard for this season has been reached.  Lee hopefully can find a way to get us back to the higher level of play.

 

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, old_eastender said:

For me it's been all about the last 5 games that have really cost us and although it won't be popular for me the blame lays firmly at LJs door:

Bolton away - 3 pts dropped, Moving Korey out of CM to cover RB was a disaster, should have just bought Mags in for the suspended Baker as we were never going to be under a lot of pressure anyway.

Sunderland home - 2 pts dropped, really poor use of subs, LJ even owned up this one himself!

Leeds away - 2 pts dropped, lack of use of subs in time when Fammy was clearly all in and Brownhill struggling with a knock. Make the subs whilst still 2 up win the game.

Fulham home - no complaints, decent performance by all accounts and good point (I didn't watch that game).

Cardiff away - 3 pts dropped, awful tactics, Diony & Fammy played the wrong way around, played right into Warnocks hands.

If we had those 10 points dropped we would still be in the hunt for 2nd, instead of clinging onto the last play-off space. I reckon all the well-earned plaudits for LJ from the cup games went to his head and he suddenly started trying to play the master tactician instead of just keeping with the winning formula that had served us so well.

If LJ can get back to doing the basics well, we can still get that play-off space.

 

 

Agree with this, although @bs3 is right about only dropping 1 point v Bolton and another v Cardiff.  It’s still 6 points and we’d be on 60, in 5th, with Cardiff on 65.

I said at start of season it was about having a non-relegation fight season and turning 5 defeats into 5 draws, that’s all I thought we needed to get 59 points, get them early too!

Weve done that in spades pre-Xmas....turning draws into wins, but not by going mad / gung-ho, but wearing sides down.

I looks back at Forest and Boro at home.  We weren’t great, but we were attritional, scores good goals, and although both were 2-0, pegged back to 2-1, we weren’t hanging on.

This is what we need to get back to.

[Redrascal2]

6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Following on from my Wolves thread, cast your mind back about 2 months, give or take a day or 2, to when we beat Reading. On the crest of a wave, great great form- a mouthwatering 2 legged tie v Man City just around the corner.

We had some huge gaps, some excellent margins for error at that time. For example:

• 6 points above Sheff Utd
• 9 ahead of Middlesborough AND Aston Villa.
• 10 ahead of Preston.
• 12 ahead of Fulham.
• 13 ahead of Brentford.
• Hell, even though they are an outside bet- a massive 17 ahead of Norwich.

This was after 24 games...we have lost this and then some in the last 10. We had better GD than them too, than all those listed.

Now, the last 10- top 14 sides, why not??:

• Aston Villa 25 points + 13 GD
• Fulham- 22 points +18 GD
• Millwall 21 Points +6 GD
• Cardiff- 20 points + 10 GD
• Wolves 18 points +5 GD
• Norwich 17 points +3 GD
• Brentford 16 points + 4 GD
• Derby 15 points +5 GD
• Middlesbrough 14 points + 3 GD
• Preston 14 points +3 GD
• Ipswich 12 points -2 GD
• Sheff Utd 11 points -3 GD (9 games played, game in hand tonight).
• Leeds 7 points -6 GD
• US 7 points -7 GD

Definitely don't consider Millwall to be playoff contenders, and Ipswich, Norwich and Brentford- well it will be tough for them but the gap isn't huge. Leeds likewise.

Our form...GJ used to measure in 10 game blocks. Well...Actually our form is probably 2nd or 3rd- bottom 5 at best- in the League over this period. The depth of decline is staggering.

It is heart breaking. What a chance we had. 

[AshtonGreat]

5 hours ago, Bar BS3 said:

You can’t lose a game 1-0 and claim it was 3 points dropped! At no point did we have 3 points “to drop” a 1-0 defeat is 1 point dropped. ie: losing the draw. 

Yes, we’ve dropped points, but you can’t just say that if we’d won all our games we’d have more points..! 

Definitely Sunderland (although massively unlucky, we didn’t help ourselves, and to a far lesser extent, Leeds - they were both points dropped. Fulham was a point gained. Bolton & Cardiff were opportunities not taken. 

How was Fulham a point gained? We were at home

[CHIPLEY RED]

When we beat Sheffield United away they were one of the form teams. They then went on a run like we have been on, dropped out the top 6. They have recovered and moved back into the top 6. 

We can and IMO will do the same.

Remember its often the team who finishes the season with a flourish to make the playoffs who goes on to win promotion - That could still be us.

Always believe !

[Bar BS3]

33 minutes ago, AshtonGreat said:

How was Fulham a point gained? We were at home

Because we were 1-0 down. At that point we had 0 points. 

It’s not rocket science..! 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, CHIPLEY RED said:

When we beat Sheffield United away they were one of the form teams. They then went on a run like we have been on, dropped out the top 6. They have recovered and moved back into the top 6. 

We can and IMO will do the same.

Remember its often the team who finishes the season with a flourish to make the playoffs who goes on to win promotion - That could still be us.

Always believe !

That’s quite interesting.....the doom mongerers (and they are fine having their opinion) have been saying there’s always one side that makes a late run into the POs.

It would be quite funny, if that was us. 

[Gert Mare]

15 hours ago, old_eastender said:

For me it's been all about the last 5 games that have really cost us and although it won't be popular for me the blame lays firmly at LJs door:

Bolton away - 3 pts dropped, Moving Korey out of CM to cover RB was a disaster, should have just bought Mags in for the suspended Baker as we were never going to be under a lot of pressure anyway.

Sunderland home - 2 pts dropped, really poor use of subs, LJ even owned up this one himself!

Leeds away - 2 pts dropped, lack of use of subs in time when Fammy was clearly all in and Brownhill struggling with a knock. Make the subs whilst still 2 up win the game.

Fulham home - no complaints, decent performance by all accounts and good point (I didn't watch that game).

Cardiff away - 3 pts dropped, awful tactics, Diony & Fammy played the wrong way around, played right into Warnocks hands.

If we had those 10 points dropped we would still be in the hunt for 2nd, instead of clinging onto the last play-off space. I reckon all the well-earned plaudits for LJ from the cup games went to his head and he suddenly started trying to play the master tactician instead of just keeping with the winning formula that had served us so well.

If LJ can get back to doing the basics well, we can still get that play-off space.

 

 

We should have beaten Fulham. Again, poor use of subs (Too late). We carried a few for nearly the entire game.

Agree with others that Cardiff wasn't 3 points dropped as we were never in front.

Apart from that I couldn't agree more with what you say, and I won't accept the "we have been punching above our weight, and we would all have taken this position at the beginning of the season" lines.

We have been in the top 6 for a long time. We haven't slowly got better. Our players are more than capable, if they are good enough to beat Man Utd then they are good enough to beat Bolton and Sunderland. 

We were 9 points clear of 7th....we are now 7th. Not good enough. Bottled it totally.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Cheesleysmate said:

We should have beaten Fulham. Again, poor use of subs (Too late). We carried a few for nearly the entire game.

Agree with others that Cardiff wasn't 3 points dropped as we were never in front.

Apart from that I couldn't agree more with what you say, and I won't accept the "we have been punching above our weight, and we would all have taken this position at the beginning of the season" lines.

We have been in the top 6 for a long time. We haven't slowly got better. Our players are more than capable, if they are good enough to beat Man Utd then they are good enough to beat Bolton and Sunderland. 

We were 9 points clear of 7th....we are now 7th. Not good enough. Bottled it totally.

Personally, quite happy with a draw v Fulham- they are and have been bang in form tbh, no loss since 16th December in the League, and have beaten Cardiff away, Boro away, Wolves and Villa at home  in the last 2 months or so.37 points from their last 17 games overall. Thought we played well and that it was our best League performance of the year.

Agree with most of what you say though, absolutely I do. I think injuries have been a huge blow, but the Sunderland game especially- to say nothing of at the very least dropped draws v Norwich and Bolton (Brownhill hit post at 0-0 v Norwich and we were denied a fairly likely pen at Bolton IMO)- should have been 2 points from those 2 and another 2 v Sunderland minimum! So at worst, another 4 points.

@Redrascal2 It is a great shame isn't it. I guess we just need to try to somehow get back on another run and maybe get into the playoffs as the form side...maybe. We should be quite comfortably in the playoffs now though given our position at the turn of the year.

[megansdad]

two key sendings off have also not helped. Frankie and then Baker one changed the game and the other badly impacted the three he missed. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

20 minutes ago, megansdad said:

two key sendings off have also not helped. Frankie and then Baker one changed the game and the other badly impacted the three he missed. 

We've had little luck this year from refs...Baker one harsh, Frankie obviously we can't complain but then you factor in the Bailey Wright ban...maybe if we make the playoffs all our luck with refs will arrive in those 3 games.  

[Guest]

12 hours ago, Redrascal2 said:

It is heart breaking. What a chance we had. 

Why is it gone? Villa managed an 18 point swing on us in that time to leave them 9 points ahead. There are more games left between now and the end of the season than in the period in which they overtook us. Given we have spent a fair amount of time at the top of the form table this season, I'm surprised the white flag is out.

[BRISTOL86]

18 hours ago, Londoner said:

Poor tactics. Shouldn' have changed system to accommdate diedhiou

Eh? Diedhiou wasn’t even in the squad for the first 3 of the last ten games and was barely involved in the 4th, so in almost half the games during this run he’s not even been involved.

And when he has, we’ve taken 3x more points per game as opposed to when he hasn’t, so not sure that really stacks up. 

[CliftonCliff]

Might seem a bit of an odd comparison, but it’s rather like watching the stock market, in a way. It gets overheated sometimes and  outperforms, so you know a correction will come at some point (like the one we’ve recently seen, in fact) - you just don’t know when. 

The surprise is not that this has happened, but that with a modest squad (relative to the likes of Derby, Villa, etc.), a style that demands great intensity, a draining cup run and the injury list from Hell, we actually managed to sustain a top six place for as long as we did.  

Most of the arguments about so-called missed opportunities, should have done this and should have done that, are over-reactions born out of frustration and disappointment, based largely on hindsight and an unrealistic assessment of the current standing of the club and the stage of development we’ve reached. One feels for the players and coaching staff, up to a point. Sure, they’re not beyond criticism, but instead of being acknowledged as having surpassed most realistic expectations, they get lambasted for not having done even better. 

That’s OTIB for you.