The Summer Transfer Window

[Davefevs]

So, every club goes into the window knowing where they want to strengthen, as fans we feel the same, but it is rarely a perfect window.  Even 14/15, the excitement of Freeman ying and yang’d by an old striker ‘picked up’ in a hotel gym in Dubai, who’d barely played for a couple of seasons .  Followed by losing top scorer - Baldock to Brighton.

It didn’t work out too badly.  Although Wilbraham aside, I think most saw it as a great window, especially after Sheffield Utd away first up...although fears with Baldock going.

Even 18/19, we lose Flint, Reid, Magnússon and Djuric, followed by Bryan after one game, spending a fraction of the funds on Adelakun, Hunt an Watkins, with hope that Weimann would bring Prem class and Webster wouldn’t be injury prone.  We also brought in another ‘foreign’ goalie  in the week before the season started.  I predicted 6-16th, probably heart thinking 6-8th, head saying 13-16th.  We added TK and JD on loan after the opening game, can only assume JD was in the pipeline depending on Bryan sale.

It didn’t work out too badly.

Whats different about this summer?

Lots!

1) the window closes on 8th Aug at 5pm, not just for transfers but loans (inbound) too.  That’s Prem and Champ Clubs.  No waiting for a few games, checking injuries, utilising loans as a quick fix.  There will be no ‘loans with an option to buy’ right before the end of Aug like last season.  Both Kalas and Dasilva loans can’t happen this time around.

2) clubs are spooked by Birmingham’s 9 point deduction.  Forget Villa (until they come back down), but Wednesday and Derby have sold their grounds, but only to fall inside FFP....they still haven’t given themselves future funding.  Derby won’t have Wilson, Mount and Tomori this season (as it stands).  They have signed Shinnie, who according to one respected Scottish social media outlet - he’s not another McGinn!  Very few clubs are buying players unless they have sold first, and in some cases the money generated is not being released for players but to cover losses only.

3) promoted clubs like Luton and Barnsley have lost key players, but not for huge fees and that means they have had to recruit at the lower end of the market, because wage demands blow decent players out of their range.  For example ignoring one year left on contract, Matty Taylor, with his lower league scoring pedigree might fetch £1.5m, this summer the clubs interested can’t pay that and wages.

4) clubs are hoarding players, a) because of the transfer window rules and fear of injuries and b) they can’t get rid of them for fair value...or without a contribution of wages.  I see Lg1 clubs taking advantage in signing fringe players post 8th Aug / pre 31st Aug.  They will be able to pick up players of higher calibre than previously.

5) clubs with players in demand from Prem clubs can quote over-value fees (like Webster) and play hardball.  It does only take 1 or 2 transfers like Maguire to Man Utd to start the chain reaction though....but it is £80m quoted Maguire that has forced the prices up in the first place.

So at City we have done our main business early (in and out).  I don’t think we’d be getting £15m for Kelly now, maybe £10m.  It’s positioned us  to play ‘wait and see’, but that is a gamble.  What LJ and MA didn’t want to do was go in and get target no5 and then find out no1 is available.  Strikers are at a premium.  Warnock has said he can’t find one either.  Patience is tough for us fans to take.  I see there being a mad panic following the weekend.

Next week we will see clubs like City in a strong(ish) position because we can buy before selling, most clubs in our division can’t.  That gives us advantage.  Our squad could go into the season as it is....yes, 1 or 2 more would be a real boost....a lot of club squads are incomplete.

We may not add....that will be disappointing.  But the season does not end on Sunday evening.  It might end for some clubs on 8th Aug when they either fail to bring in anyone having waited all summer, or their star player goes at 16:59 having threatened to down tools unless he gets the move.

Gonna be some over-reactions, and maybe people like me feeling too blasé.  Gonna be busy on OTIB though!!!

One final thought....not one regular first teamer has had their contract extended this season....Bakinson and Semenyo only from memory.

[Jerseybean]

Interesting post Davefevs. Why do you suggest the fee for Kelly will be more like £10 m? 

[Monkeh]

8 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Interesting post Davefevs. Why do you suggest the fee for Kelly will be more like £10 m? 

the closer to the end of the window the more likely the fee will raise as clubs start to panic buy

[Davefevs]

15 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Interesting post Davefevs. Why do you suggest the fee for Kelly will be more like £10 m? 

Just think there will be less money - think fees peaked earlier this summer, and why both Leicester aren’t budging and Man Utd not meeting their demands.

i might be wrong...just my thought that we got max value in May.

7 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

the closer to the end of the window the more likely the fee will raise as clubs start to panic buy

In some cases yes, depends whether the player is in demand or not.  You get cut-price deals too at the end of the window too. Panic buying and panic selling goes on.

[Monkeh]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Just think there will be less money - think fees peaked earlier this summer, and why both Leicester aren’t budging and Man Utd not meeting their demands.

i might be wrong...just my thought that we got max value in May.

In some cases yes, depends whether the player is in demand or not.  You get cut-price deals too at the end of the window too. Panic buying and panic selling goes on.

kelly wouldn't of been cut price as he had time left on his contract,

But point taken,

[Redrascal2]

22 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

the closer to the end of the window the more likely the fee will raise as clubs start to panic buy

So why do we leave the purchase of a striker to the last week. It makes no sense.

[Guest]

Not sure if your happy or not to go with this squad.

I think there is a real danger of losing Webster, he may even submit a transfer request.

If we can’t add a goal scorer then I fear we may struggle, a depleted Leeds team will be a stern test, and pre season we’ve shown little sign of being up to it. 

Sincerely hope I’m wrong, but this could be the season where a mid table finish is looked on as  acceptable,  I believe this squad isn't better than last seasons, and in some respects is worse.

[chinapig]

7 minutes ago, Redrascal2 said:

So why do we leave the purchase of a striker to the last week. It makes no sense.

Because clubs are reluctant to sell earlier for the reasons @Davefevs has given. Multiple parties are involved in the chain as well so it's not as straightforward as fans seem to think.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Think Derby now have Dowell as well on loan, and their appointment of Cocu could help them in certain parts of the market whereas say a Rowett or similar might not.

Agree fully with the OP by @Davefevs however.

[Sturny]

From very early signs and the general feel of the squad (how it looks on paper), I think if there's no more business this window we're entering it with a ever so slightly weaker squad than we had last year (Ofc the competition in the league changes too). We've somewhat improved our depth tho. Maybe LJ believes a good rotating squad is what we needed. 

The extra year of experience the younger players had from last season will improve us tho

 

[slartibartfast]

Really hope I'm wrong , but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we didn't sign anyone else this window !

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, slartibartfast said:

Really hope I'm wrong , but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we didn't sign anyone else this window !

Some solutions can lie within- part of this players, part of this some weaker competition and some of this a change in mindset/tactics by LJ in certain areas.

[AshtonGreat]

54 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Interesting post Davefevs. Why do you suggest the fee for Kelly will be more like £10 m? 

I think the OP meant to say the fee would've been closer to £10m if the deal had been done at the end of the summer

[Wrongagain]

Looking at the few arrivals and departures, are we still of the opinion that this team will be an improvement on last season?  

We still have the same weakest links in the squad as last season but no proven goalscorer to add to FD.

It’s looking a bit too much like last season, loads of promise but no end result! A bit like we ended up playing the season out.

[Monkeh]

17 minutes ago, Sturny said:

From very early signs and the general feel of the squad (how it looks on paper), I think if there's no more business this window we're entering it with a ever so slightly weaker squad than we had last year (Ofc the competition in the league changes too). We've somewhat improved our depth tho. Maybe LJ believes a good rotating squad is what we needed. 

The extra year of experience the younger players had from last season will improve us tho

 

How is the squad weaker then last year?

[keflav]

13 minutes ago, Redrascal2 said:

So why do we leave the purchase of a striker to the last week. It makes no sense.

I agree its madness we should have gone out early and got a striker (whoever that may have been) to gave them time to bed into the squad before the season. we have all known for at least 2 seasons now we need another striker, so am absolutely baffled by LJ and the clubs decision not to bring one it (should have been top priority, not last minute panic). And I don't buy all this rubbish about waiting for markets and there's just not players around etc. pay the money get your players other teams do it that's why they have success. I like fammy but he aint gonna score 20+ goals for us and needs help up front where is this going to come from?  Seems to me as others have said the team is no better than last season (or fractionally improved but not a lot) and the BOLD summer has stalled and if not failed to materialize (some of you would say we were bold bringing in Kalas, De Silva, and Bentley, maybe or just kept the team on parity as last year really) 

At the start of the summer I was full of optimism for this season but this has somewhat dissolved away as the pre season has gone on, Unfortunately can only see us being a mid table team again like the previous 2 seasons (I massively hope I'm wrong on this and we can challenge)

[Monkeh]

Cardiff city finished 2nd top scorer got less goals then fammy did last season

 

[The Fat Controller]

I would like quality additions, like everyone else. But I would be happy to go with the squad we have if things don't work out. 

However, I would not play the same way that I think LJ will. Which is probably why I'm not working in football. 

[Sturny]

11 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

How is the squad weaker then last year?

No Kelly, LB and RB position has no quality depth. From what I've seen and heard of Bentley he isn't an improvement from Fielding or Maenpaa imo. I also said slightly weaker, there's not a dramatic difference 

The window hasn't closed yet tho... 

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, keflav said:

I agree its madness we should have gone out early and got a striker (whoever that may have been) to gave them time to bed into the squad before the season. we have all known for at least 2 seasons now we need another striker, so am absolutely baffled by LJ and the clubs decision not to bring one it (should have been top priority, not last minute panic). And I don't buy all this rubbish about waiting for markets and there's just not players around etc. pay the money get your players other teams do it that's why they have success. I like fammy but he aint gonna score 20+ goals for us and needs help up front where is this going to come from?  Seems to me as others have said the team is no better than last season (or fractionally improved but not a lot) and the BOLD summer has stalled and if not failed to materialize (some of you would say we were bold bringing in Kalas, De Silva, and Bentley, maybe or just kept the team on parity as last year really) 

At the start of the summer I was full of optimism for this season but this has somewhat dissolved away as the pre season has gone on, Unfortunately can only see us being a mid table team again like the previous 2 seasons (I massively hope I'm wrong on this and we can challenge)

Dunno about a striker at any cost- if they're not so good then it would represent a poor purchase and maybe worth trying to improve from within as well- perhaps change strategy a bit.

£25m loss in 2017/18 still needs to be factored in.

The stuff about domino's falling into place with moves I was a bit sceptical about at the start of the summer but it seems to have some truth. It's actually been fairly subdued at this level in terms of big money moves this summer. Worth looking at!

[Merrick's Marvels]

36 minutes ago, Redrascal2 said:

So why do we leave the purchase of a striker to the last week. It makes no sense.

Because the one we've identified won't be loaned out by his club until they've signed someone themselves and this has taken them longer than anticipated. Despite this delay, we've decided the player concerned is worth waiting for. This may all go belly up at the last minute but that's football.

There are still 2 weeks of the window left so why not have some faith in your club rather than posting panicky negativity every 5 minutes?

   

[Major Isewater]

40 minutes ago, Redrascal2 said:

So why do we leave the purchase of a striker to the last week. It makes no sense.

I highly doubt that it’s the club strategy.

The problem being , as I see it , we hope to land Nketiah but he’s been on tour with his club and know it’s looking like he will stay in London so we will be activating our ‘ next on the list ‘ , hoping that they are still available.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

Because the one we've identified won't be loaned out by his club until they've signed someone themselves and this has taken them longer than anticipated. Despite this delay, we've decided the player concerned is worth waiting for. This may all go belly up at the last minute but that's football.

There are still 2 weeks of the window left so why not have some faith in your club rather than posting panicky negativity every 5 minutes?

   

Shuts in 10 days and a bit.

5pm, Thursday 8th August 2019- includes loans too.

[Monkeh]

7 minutes ago, Sturny said:

No Kelly, LB and RB position has no quality depth. From what I've seen and heard of Bentley he isn't an improvement from Fielding or Maenpaa imo. I also said slightly weaker, there's not a dramatic difference 

The window hasn't closed yet tho... 

Kelly wasn’t a first teamer for the majority of the season so we are not weaker

moore and vyner are cover for right back

bentley is a better keeper the frankie and Nikki and Nikki is still here

so no we are not weaker

[Wrongagain]

10 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

How is the squad weaker then last year?

Any team against us knows only too well the frailties of some of the Midfielders in our squads usual starting 11, weather it’s disinterest, fatigue, slow reactions or whatever, they do their homework and we end up chasing the game too often.  Bold would have been total shake up! A brilliant defence alone will not improve the goal difference.

[keflav]

10 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Dunno about a striker at any cost- if they're not so good then it would represent a poor purchase and maybe worth trying to improve from within as well- perhaps change strategy a bit.

£25m loss in 2017/18 still needs to be factored in.

The stuff about domino's falling into place with moves I was a bit sceptical about at the start of the summer but it seems to have some truth. It's actually been fairly subdued at this level in terms of big money moves this summer. Worth looking at!

Not saying get striker at any cost just get in early and Sort out the deal before everyone else starts to bump up the price and turn the players head (over paying for any player never gonna be good and the club would just not do it, but you got to pay market value!)

Waiting for other clubs to sort out there business is all well and good but we have needed a striker for 2 seasons, if MA and LJ are good at there job surely by now they would have wrapped up the deals ( not wait till last minute and come out with the Usual "we just missed out on targets" again) 

[Monkeh]

Just now, dave36 said:

Any team against us knows only too well the frailties of some of the Midfielders in our squads usual starting 11, weather it’s disinterest, fatigue, slow reactions or whatever, they do their homework and we end up chasing the game too often.  Bold would have been total shake up! A brilliant defence alone will not improve the goal difference.

A major rebuild can just just as much harm as good,

look at stoke last season for a prime example

[keflav]

2 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Kelly wasn’t a first teamer for the majority of the season so we are not weaker

moore and vyner are cover for right back

bentley is a better keeper the frankie and Nikki and Nikki is still here

so no we are not weaker

May not be weaker but defo not the improvement we had all hoped would have happened this BOLD summer...

[Sturny]

12 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Kelly wasn’t a first teamer for the majority of the season so we are not weaker

moore and vyner are cover for right back

bentley is a better keeper the frankie and Nikki and Nikki is still here

so no we are not weaker

He made 32 appearances, which is more appearances and minutes than Dasilva played so you are wrong. 

Like i said quality depth isn't there in those positions, thanks for pointing that out for me.  

Let's agree to disagree. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

24 minutes ago, keflav said:

Not say get striker at any cost just get in early and Sort out the deal before everyone else starts to bump up the price and turn the players head (over paying for any player never gonna be good and the club would just not do it, but you got to pay market value!)

Waiting for other clubs to sort out there business is all well and good but we have needed a striker for 2 seasons, if MA and LJ are good at there job surely by now they would have wrapped up the deals ( not wait till last minute and come out with the Usual "we just missed out on targets" again) 

This link I have a bit further down maybe worth a look- fees can be hit and miss but look at this summer then use the drop down menu for the previous 4 or 5 summers.

Still a little while left but how do you factor in:

a) The possibility of systems getting some more from those within- thinking more Weimann centrally with the right support and midfield base.

b) The £25m loss in 2017/18 being on our books- I was pro pushing the boat out for £10m Vydra plus associatediated wages but didn't anticipate the trouble we would have shifting fringe players- yes other clubs play a role here as we have to have a market to move them on. Were it summer 2020 with that loss having dropped off the books it would be feasible! Just one example.

c) What market value! Take a look at this site and though the fees aren't always on point, it's quite accurate as a whole.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2019&s_w=s&leihe=0&intern=0

@Davefevs you might also be interested in this. It often throws it up in euros but found a £ one. Thoroughly reinforces what you've said in the OP!

Look back at the prior 3-4 seasons- bottom has fallen out the market a bit this summer at this level- this impacts our business as we cannot move players on so easily and with one eye on FFP we're waiting for dominos to fall- not just in terms of pecking order but trading our way to upgrades!

Creative solutions.

Potential solution 1 for us and a striker. Offer Burnley maybe a loan fee and wages covered with an obligation or option to buy for £10m next summer.

Potential solution 2 for us and our fringe players- Offer Baker, Watkins out for loan with an option/obligation to buy next summer. Work out some balance between loan fee and wage coverage to give the clubs the incentive.

Potential solution 3 for us and other fringe players- Take a bit of a hit on O'Dowda fee say if he won't renew and Wright if we want some income now to help us this season and moving forward in the calculations.

Potential solution 4- Maybe even consider selling Vyner as he's an academy player, in conjunction with some of the above to raise some quick income.

We can't magic away that £25m loss in 2017/18 though, we just can't- or the fairly subdued market activities at this level.