Statistical implosion - last 12 games

[Olé]

To say nothing of how bad we are to watch recently, I just noticed a rather unusual and very obvious shift in the statistics that reflects the total collapse of our football at both ends of the pitch.

If we count ALL our shots on target as goals (that is, results are based on our shots on target vs ones they actually score) we still lose 5 of the last 12 league games with a goal difference of only +3.

What's particularly unusual is that prior to that - our first 17 league games of the season - applying the same approach has us winning 15 and losing just one of 17 with a goal difference of +48.

I can't think of a more stark measure of how much things have fallen apart.

[pl00peh91]

It makes me think there is an actual risk we could be relegated, which would have been unthinkable even a month ago.

[Roger Red Hat]

1 minute ago, pl00peh91 said:

unthinkable even a month ago.

I've thought it for a while. Can't score, can't defend, when we have got our noses in front we've tended to hang on desperately, with largely DB's excellent form saving us. Dean's 'finding a way to win' tactic.

[2015]

8 minutes ago, pl00peh91 said:

It makes me think there is an actual risk we could be relegated, which would have been unthinkable even a month ago.

It is certainly possible.

Our next month of fixtures I can't see more than 3 points at best. That will leave us around 17th if that happens. The other thing is, when we do play sides around us in the final stages of the season, would we even have the fight in us? Because I can't see it.

Stranger things have happened. If we keep Holden for next season and we stay up I would put money on us to go down next season.

[77 punk]

it is going to be a bumpy ride to the end of the season , you can certainly see another hammering coming somewhere. i agree we will not have the fight if it comes to the last few games. my only hope is looking at the table there are ten clubs separated by ten points and roughly the same goal difference, so we might end up with a couple of clubs beneath us.

[Davefevs]

 

[Numero Uno]

32 minutes ago, Olé said:

To say nothing of how bad we are to watch recently, I just noticed a rather unusual and very obvious shift in the statistics that reflects the total collapse of our football at both ends of the pitch.

If we count ALL our shots on target as goals (that is, results are based on our shots on target vs ones they actually score) we still lose 5 of the last 12 league games with a goal difference of only +3.

What's particularly unusual is that prior to that - our first 17 league games of the season - applying the same approach has us winning 15 and losing just one of 17 with a goal difference of +48.

I can't think of a more stark measure of how much things have fallen apart.

Put it in an e-mail to Teflon and call it Key Metrics or KPI's and he might take notice of it.........

[Red-Robbo]

Perhaps we will enjoy the games more if we imagine we have scored from each shot on goal, but our opponents still actually have to get the ball in the net?

We may have lost yesterday by an embarrassing 6-1, but our 2-1 victory over Sheffield United keeps the imaginary cup run going and the 3-4 victory over Brentford was edge-of-the-seat stuff!

I must remember to jump out my armchair and celebrate from now on whenever Wells or Fammy shoot tamely into the keepers' hands.

If we get to count every time Semenyo blazes over as a goal as well, we'll be top of the imaginary league and can pretend we're playing in the PL next season.

Golden Holden indeed!!!

[ExiledAjax]

I posted the ten game rolling averages after the Cardiff game, obviously yesterday did nothing to help them.

For me the damning thing is that right now, if you look at the whole season, we need 8.5 shots to score a goal. That's not bad, many teams are far more wasteful than that. However, the problem comes when you look at the past 15 games and see that we average only 7.1 shots per game. Over the whole season it is 8.5. So, right now, we go into each game with a reasonable expectation of not scoring. In our average game we do not take enough shots to give our strikers a likelihood of scoring one goal.

In reply we allow our average opponent to shoot 14.4 times each game, and that rises to 15.2 over the last 15. How many shots, on average does an opposition team need to take to get past Bentley - 10.

So in summary, our average game would see us take 7, allow 15, and lose 2-0 (rounding shots/goal to whole goals).

Note that this is a whole lot worse than last season, and a whole lot worse than when LJ took us on that 8-game losing run. It's awful, it's the worst I've seen in the three seasons I've tracked this kind of stuff.

But of course, the only stat that matters is the scoreline right? Bollocks is it.

[sludge]

29 minutes ago, 2015 said:

It is certainly possible.

Our next month of fixtures I can't see more than 3 points at best. That will leave us around 17th if that happens. The other thing is, when we do play sides around us in the final stages of the season, would we even have the fight in us? Because I can't see it.

Stranger things have happened. If we keep Holden for next season and we stay up I would put money on us to go down next season.

With so many players OOC at end of season I’m expecting us to have zero fight in us if we really get sucked into the brown. 

[Olé]

Bonus stat. I looked at the prior 4 seasons under LJ and there is no equivalent.

Apply this to his club record 8 defeats in a row and the result is W5 D3 GD+13

• 2016/17  P46 W36 D8 L2 +132
• 2017/18  P46 W38 D4 L4 +130 
• 2018/19  P46 W39 D5 L2 +165
• 2019/20  P46 W32 D7 L7 +90

Dean Holden's last 12 league games:

• Last 12   P12 W6 D1 L5 +3

Worst I could find previously is losing 3 in 8 in run up to lockdown last season. 

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Olé said:

Bonus stat. I looked at the prior 4 seasons under LJ and there is no equivalent.

Apply this to his club record 8 defeats in a row and the result is W5 D3 GD+13

• 2016/17  P46 W36 D8 L2 +132
• 2017/18  P46 W38 D4 L4 +130 
• 2018/19  P46 W39 D5 L2 +165
• 2019/20  P46 W32 D7 L7 +90

Dean Holden's last 12 league games:

• Last 12   P12 W6 D1 L5 +3

Worst I could find previously is losing 3 in 8 in run up to lockdown last season. 

100%. We actually did not play too badly in that 8-game losing run. We lost by the odd goal here and there, never pummeled 6-0 like yesterday. We created chances, and actually scored 9 goals in those 8 games. Current form and performances are magnitudes worse.

[chinapig]

3 minutes ago, markcarter said:

I thought it several months ago when it was clear results totally masked our play.  I posted it several times and was in receipt of lots of mockery.

When managers and coaches talk about focusing on performance over results they are right but they tend to get short shrift from fans too.

For much of our slump however, our head coach has been in denial about our performances. Remember his claim that we outplayed Luton from start to finish?

Or his dismissal of being comprehensively outplayed by Huddersfield, while Kalas said we couldn't go on playing like that?

Or his similar dismissal of Rowett saying how easy it was to know how to beat us?

Results can be misleading. Performances will find you out in the end.

[ciderwithtommy]

I have been going to city for 30 years, and I posted on here last week the Cardiff game was the worst I had ever seen at home, and these stats backup that theory more objectively. Obvs yesterday was even worse, but I cannot think of a time where we were so clueless. In possession, out of possession, set pieces etc. 
 

Great bit of analysis @Olébut if really is so depressing 

[italian dave]

I haven’t the detailed analysis to support this in the way that you have @Olé, but the other stat I find worrying is that most of our games are over in the first five minutes. We concede. End of story. It doesn’t make for a great football match.

[2015]

8 minutes ago, ciderwithtommy said:

I have been going to city for 30 years, and I posted on here last week the Cardiff game was the worst I had ever seen at home, and these stats backup that theory more objectively. Obvs yesterday was even worse, but I cannot think of a time where we were so clueless. In possession, out of possession, set pieces etc. 
 

Great bit of analysis @Olébut if really is so depressing 

I can count many games this season where I have said this is the worst I have seen us since...

These games were:

Rotherham Away, Derby Away, Cardiff home, Watford Away. 

Rotherham could have beaten us 6-0 on the day. 

We have been lucky to pick up points in many other games too.

Coventry Home, Swansea Home, Forest Away, Derby Home, QPR away, Huddersfield Home. 

 

Our performances have caught up with us, haven't they in truth.

[CotswoldRed]

1 hour ago, pl00peh91 said:

It makes me think there is an actual risk we could be relegated, which would have been unthinkable even a month ago.

Our football is consistently the worst in the Divison, and I've watched far too much Championship football for my own good.  Some teams have less potential than us and they inevitably lose to better teams, but our capacity for ineptitude, a failure to grasp the basics of the game, and general entertainment level are a level apart (and below) all other teams in this league, imo. 

We are the worst to watch and have the most to be ashamed of, especially after that gutless performance yesterday.

[Hampshire Red]

Ole Rob, interesting stats but on the other hand not at all surprising. None of the people i watch regularly with really blame the manager for performances and results of teams compiling so many players who either arent ready for the first team or would not be in the team at (say 80% fitness - witness Rowe recently, Hunt yesterday)

I like the fact that DH refuses to use injuries as a public excuse but we all know most other teams in our league would be playing dire stuff if they had to choose a team with 5,6,7 or8 players you would not plan to pick.

I wont remind you of our discvussion about LJ picking teams away from home that would not be bettered for many a season but i fell the call coming on, pointless though it is. What it does prove however is we have everything going well off the pitch and need at some point in time* a good break from injuries and a return of the first choice players.

*For me, this could come this week but as long as we are still in the Championship come August, DH will prove all the better for having to learn about himself and his players during this difficult period. I was never one for blooding too many 'youth' but we are seeing several seasons of that this season.

[RiverRed]

We won 7-1 in kick-offs yesterday. I'm clinging on to that stat for now.

[Bristol Oil Services]

2 hours ago, Red-Robbo said:

Perhaps we will enjoy the games more if we imagine we have scored from each shot on goal, but our opponents still actually have to get the ball in the net?

We may have lost yesterday by an embarrassing 6-1, but our 2-1 victory over Sheffield United keeps the imaginary cup run going and the 3-4 victory over Brentford was edge-of-the-seat stuff!

I must remember to jump out my armchair and celebrate from now on whenever Wells or Fammy shoot tamely into the keepers' hands.

If we get to count every time Semenyo blazes over as a goal as well, we'll be top of the imaginary league and can pretend we're playing in the PL next season.

Golden Holden indeed!!!

I think you have locked on, and gained entry to, and are inhabiting there, the very interesting interior world and mental experience of our very own @Hampshire Red. How can I join you?

[Dr Balls]

1 hour ago, Hampshire Red said:

Ole Rob, interesting stats but on the other hand not at all surprising. None of the people i watch regularly with really blame the manager for performances and results of teams compiling so many players who either arent ready for the first team or would not be in the team at (say 80% fitness - witness Rowe recently, Hunt yesterday)

I like the fact that DH refuses to use injuries as a public excuse but we all know most other teams in our league would be playing dire stuff if they had to choose a team with 5,6,7 or8 players you would not plan to pick.

I wont remind you of our discvussion about LJ picking teams away from home that would not be bettered for many a season but i fell the call coming on, pointless though it is. What it does prove however is we have everything going well off the pitch and need at some point in time* a good break from injuries and a return of the first choice players.

*For me, this could come this week but as long as we are still in the Championship come August, DH will prove all the better for having to learn about himself and his players during this difficult period. I was never one for blooding too many 'youth' but we are seeing several seasons of that this season.

I am trying to work out if you are having delusions or hallucinations, but as I am not a psychiatrist, it’s a bit beyond me. A bit like it is for Dean coaching a successful Championship football team...

[Red-Robbo]

1 hour ago, Moments of Pleasure said:

I think you have locked on, and gained entry to, and are inhabiting there, the very interesting interior world and mental experience of our very own @Hampshire Red. How can I join you?

 

Trade: Phenodihydrochloride benzelex. Street: The embalmer.

[22A]

5 hours ago, Roger Red Hat said:

I've thought it for a while. Can't score, can't defend, when we have got our noses in front we've tended to hang on desperately, with largely DB's excellent form saving us. Dean's 'finding a way to win' tactic.

Yes, but why? Six months ago City were playing decent football and winning H & A. How has it gone wrong?

Same Coach and same set of players, but complete opposite set of results and performances.

[extonsred]

21 minutes ago, 22A said:

Yes, but why? Six months ago City were playing decent football and winning H & A. How has it gone wrong?

Same Coach and same set of players, but complete opposite set of results and performances.

It's a long long time since we've played decent, attacking football over more than 20 minutes (at the most) spells - but even those have disappeared. 

[LondonBristolian]

5 hours ago, Roger Red Hat said:

I've thought it for a while. Can't score, can't defend, when we have got our noses in front we've tended to hang on desperately, with largely DB's excellent form saving us. Dean's 'finding a way to win' tactic.

Being honest, I felt up until this week that the risk of relegation was exaggerated. Sure, we've been dire but I felt we were going to scrape some results somewhere and there were a lot of teams below us who'd need to get the results to catch us up.

Now, between our dire form and Mawson's long-term absence leaving us even shorter at the back, I'm really worried. 

[LondonBristolian]

24 minutes ago, 22A said:

Yes, but why? Six months ago City were playing decent football and winning H & A. How has it gone wrong?

Same Coach and same set of players, but complete opposite set of results and performances.

I think a major issue is that Holden has completely abandoned the things he did to stabilise the team at the end of last season and start of this. We've gone from a settled XI and formation with clearly defined roles and responsibilities back to the days of LJ's tombola. I don't think there is a plan from one game to the next.

And yes, some of it is down to injuries but there's needless tinkering too. And, whislt the players are undoubtedly playing poorly, what worries me more is the fact that it is not at all clear what it is that is being asked for them. It's not so much that they seem to be falling to execute the gameplay so much as that there seems to be 10 people running around with no game plan, strategy or set of instructions. 

[Roger Red Hat]

26 minutes ago, 22A said:

Yes, but why? Six months ago City were playing decent football and winning H & A. How has it gone wrong?

Same Coach and same set of players, but complete opposite set of results and performances.

Yep, we did get a few good results back then, but my recollection is of us hanging on/backs to the wall against Forest, and Barnsley and I can't remember who else, even with a team not ravaged by injuries. I remember watching those games with my brother in law who was over from France (Severn Beach lad, always been a City fan) and we both said "we aren't going to keep getting away with playing like this". He predicted we'd struggle!

[Hampshire Red]

We were winning at Oakwell and even home fans conceded they'd given up, so in that and other games we could easily have had more points. 

Our main mantra was closing down, pressing high and much like Johnson teams. The further we have gone from that the worse the results - what is surprising about that especially as we haven't got the proven Championship qualities of AW, Martin and CoD but are throwing kids at this challenge. 

It really isn't a surprise, nor a criticism of Holden, just a lot of dam  bad luck. 

[ScottishRed]

5 hours ago, pl00peh91 said:

It makes me think there is an actual risk we could be relegated, which would have been unthinkable even a month ago.

It is more than a risk, it is a real possibility.

[Red-Robbo]

35 minutes ago, 22A said:

Yes, but why? Six months ago City were playing decent football and winning H & A. How has it gone wrong?

Same Coach and same set of players, but complete opposite set of results and performances.

 To expand the answers given by LB and RRH above I'll add that it's also down to injuries of key personnel, BUT that shows how weak the team we had going into the season was that a few key absences like Weimann/Baker and Dasilva caused the whole thing to collapse. 

Plus there's just been shit coaching by Holden and his two stooges. Players have got worse at doing the basics. The team is disorganised attacking and badly set up when defending. Men are played out of position. Players aren't sure what Holden expects of them. 

I think by now they are also demoralised and Dean doesn't have the personal motivation chops to lift them. I'm not a big Warnock fan, but one thing you know is that his man management techniques puts self-belief back into underperforming players.

At City, I don't think the players believe in Holden any more than we do.