The Office (UK): Ipswich Town edition

[Davefevs]

Nice thread here, similar to a Kieran Maguire summary:

@Dan11 the big question for me is how much growth is there available if you stay down?  Attendances maxed out pretty much, therefore match day revenues will be similarly at their max.

Commercial revenues can be grown, but by how much more?

Expectation that wages will rise, recruitment costs (fees, etc) will rise too.

[Dan11]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Nice thread here, similar to a Kieran Maguire summary:

@Dan11 the big question for me is how much growth is there available if you stay down?  Attendances maxed out pretty much, therefore match day revenues will be similarly at their max.

Commercial revenues can be grown, but by how much more?

Expectation that wages will rise, recruitment costs (fees, etc) will rise too.

I think the football league distributions/TV deal is £5/6m higher in the Championship isn't it?

Beyond that we invested in our hospitality facilities this season and have further plans for this. Ashton has talked about being able use the stadium 365 days a year rather than just every other Saturday. They want to be in a position to have a couple of concerts on the pitch every summer. There is a longer term plan to rebuild the Cobbold stand with an increased capacity and new hospitality facilities too. But shortish term I suspect revenues are probably going to struggle to go much beyond £30m in this division. Like any team that doesn't get parachute payments, player trading is going to be important for us. Recruitment has been excellent since McKenna came in and we've managed to build value in the squad. If we don't go up, I see much of the same this summer - signings in the £1m-£2m bracket.

Edited March 25 by Dan11

[Davefevs]

Thanks Dan, all sensible stuff.

[Super]

Some day for them. Top with 7 to play.

[IAmNick]

23 minutes ago, Super said:

Some day for them. Top with 7 to play.

Amazing to think we were basically in that same positions 16 years ago (well, last time we were top was after game 38 I think but whatever).

I wouldn't actually care if they go up - the Ashton thing, yeah annoying, whatever. Good luck to them, hard to say they don't deserve it after their wobble and resurgence this season. Oh, and to see Leicester potentially fail would be worth it for me.

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

Amazing to think we were basically in that same positions 16 years ago (well, last time we were top was after game 38 I think but whatever).

I wouldn't actually care if they go up - the Ashton thing, yeah annoying, whatever. Good luck to them, hard to say they don't deserve it after their wobble and resurgence this season. Oh, and to see Leicester potentially fail would be worth it for me.

They went or could go so far beyond us in terms of points gained. Some insane numbers from the top 3 even top 4.

[IAmNick]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

They went or could go so far beyond us in terms of points gained. Some insane numbers from the top 3 even top 4.

Oh absolutely mate. They're better than we were on I expect almost every measurable metric and deserving of their place. The top few are away from the pack.

It's just there can't be that many newly promoted teams top of the championship at this point, and it's bizarre to think we were one of them in the not too distant past.

[formerly known as ivan]

Let’s follow the Ipswich blueprint! Step one, recruit Mark Ashton…

Also, isn’t it time to change the title of the thread? Believe this was set up to mock Ipswich when they appointed Ashton. Fair to say the joke has long gone!

Edited March 29 by formerly known as ivan

[Dr Balls]

8 hours ago, Super said:

Some day for them. Top with 7 to play.

But even their most one-eyed fan would have to admit that they were lucky at Blackburn. For their goal the Blackburn goalie was really poor, and yes like us yesterday they should have had a penalty for shirt-pulling, but beyond that Blackburn were all over them and had the ball in the Ipswich goal 3 times, one of which with different officials would have stood as the offside against Szmodics was at least questionable as to whether or not he did obstruct the keeper’s view. Plus the Ipswich goalie nearly gifted Szmodics a goal but did even better than O’Leary against Vardy in making up for his mistake.

i still look at the Ipswich team and see some reasonable Championship players playing way beyond their expected level with form leading to increased confidence, but they would probably need an even bigger recruitment drive than Forest, courtesy of you know who, to stay up. Whereas Leeds and Leicester have better players, having been able to hold on to them via parachute payments, and therefore would be more likely to survive in the Premier League if they were promoted.

[LondonBristolian]

8 hours ago, formerly known as ivan said:

Let’s follow the Ipswich blueprint! Step one, recruit Mark Ashton…

Also, isn’t it time to change the title of the thread? Believe this was set up to mock Ipswich when they appointed Ashton. Fair to say the joke has long gone!

To be honest, I set this thread up to share a David Brent-esque quote from Mark Ashton in an interview. I never thought for a minute it would last three years and get to 87 pages! 

[Dan11]

Thanks for beating Leicester for us 

[GrahamC]

9 hours ago, IAmNick said:

Amazing to think we were basically in that same positions 16 years ago (well, last time we were top was after game 38 I think but whatever).

I wouldn't actually care if they go up - the Ashton thing, yeah annoying, whatever. Good luck to them, hard to say they don't deserve it after their wobble and resurgence this season. Oh, and to see Leicester potentially fail would be worth it for me.

100%.

The other thing is if they didn’t have Ashton & his history with us, we would all be saying what an incredible achievement.

They really didn’t spend that big last summer, they have gone toe to toe all year with 3 sides who possess a ridiculous advantage over the others & at present are in pole position in what now looks two from three to go up automatically.

You can already hear the fans of the sides who get out of League One this season saying they’re looking to do an “Ipswich” next season, completely failing to understand this only happens around once every ten years.
 

[LondonBristolian]

3 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

100%.

The other thing is if they didn’t have Ashton & his history with us, we would all be saying what an incredible achievement.

They really didn’t spend that big last summer, they have gone toe to toe all year with 3 sides who possess a ridiculous advantage over the others & at present are in pole position in what now looks two from three to go up automatically.

You can already hear the fans of the sides who get out of League One this season saying they’re looking to do an “Ipswich” next season, completely failing to understand this only happens around once every ten years.
 

And in fairness, Ipswich fans told us they were going to do exactly what they’ve done in the summer and most of us - or certainly me, anyway - felt they were being arrogant and deluded.

Even with Ashton, I’d probably rather Ipswich made it than the three relegated teams going straight back up. Certainly I’d take an Ipswich promotion over another of the boring yo-yo clubs like West Brom or Norwich.

[GrahamC]

2 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

And in fairness, Ipswich fans told us they were going to do exactly what they’ve done in the summer and most of us - or certainly me, anyway - felt they were being arrogant and deluded.

Even with Ashton, I’d probably rather Ipswich made it than the three relegated teams going straight back up. Certainly I’d take an Ipswich promotion over another of the boring yo-yo clubs like West Brom or Norwich.

They truly won’t give a **** but this is the bit of me that doesn’t want them to go up.

I still think they’re a pretty arrogant lot, maybe not a couple who have posted on here, but for a side that bumped around in the third tier for 4 years lacking in any sort of humility.

Mind you, for a sense of entitlement it’s hard to beat the Leicester fans yesterday, giving their team pelters at the final whistle.

[LondonBristolian]

4 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

They truly won’t give a **** but this is the bit of me that doesn’t want them to go up.

I still think they’re a pretty arrogant lot, maybe not a couple who have posted on here, but for a side that bumped around in the third tier for 4 years lacking in any sort of humility.

Mind you, for a sense of entitlement it’s hard to beat the Leicester fans yesterday, giving their team pelters at the final whistle.

I agree on the arrogance but I think it is true - and even more so - for the entire current top six plus a few other teams in the division like Boro and Sunderland. There is a large bunch of teams with a big section of fans who feel entitled to a place in the Premier League despite - Leicester aside - a long and undistinguished track record of doing absolutely nothing once they are up there.

Edited March 30 by LondonBristolian

[Dan11]

40 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

They truly won’t give a **** but this is the bit of me that doesn’t want them to go up.

I still think they’re a pretty arrogant lot, maybe not a couple who have posted on here, but for a side that bumped around in the third tier for 4 years lacking in any sort of humility.

Mind you, for a sense of entitlement it’s hard to beat the Leicester fans yesterday, giving their team pelters at the final whistle.

As a fan base we really aren't entitled at all. We've been crap for years and I think most of our fan base are just enjoying finally having our club back and being able to watch a team that we feel a huge connection with, playing top quality football. I'm fortunate enough to have (just about) seen the George Burley team that finished 5th in the Premier League but anyone under the age of about 27 has seen complete dross almost non-stop. 

I think most Ipswich fans expected us to be knocking about around the play off positions this season but we really have surpassed all expectations. This really is a special team managed by one of the best managers in the country right now.

[Bazooka Joe]

Don’t like any of the teams vying for promotion.

But I’d like Ipswich to miss out simply because of Ashton.

Yeh, it’s petty and personal.

Edited March 30 by Bazooka Joe

[Mr Popodopolous]

In respect of Ipswich, Mark Ashton aside I would say in the nicest possible way that there is an element of now or never there. Perfect storm.

That level won't be replicated next year if not promoted IMO. They'll still be alright but they definitely won't be matching and right now outdoing Leeds,  Leicester, Southampton.

Now this could be tempered by Norwich Parachute Payments running out if they stay down, some retrenchment needed there. Hull maybe having to consolidate financially a bit, the potential that Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United are absolutely less strong than if they went up, Leeds, Leicester and Southampton. WBA year 2 without Parachute Payments if they stay down etc.

They have been very good at avoiding many injuries to key players too, will that be replicated? Especially with some outfield 30 and above.

[cotswoldred2]

11 hours ago, IAmNick said:

Oh absolutely mate. They're better than we were on I expect almost every measurable metric and deserving of their place. The top few are away from the pack.

It's just there can't be that many newly promoted teams top of the championship at this point, and it's bizarre to think we were one of them in the not too distant past.

I don't see Ipswich as a million miles better than us, in fact they have had an extraordinary good fortune with lack of injuries thus far. We could have should have at least drew with them last time, IF they go up they will struggle to stay up a second season. What they do have is great support, they are not divided like us, one City club, and they seem to have belief in their set up, unlike us.

Of course perhaps their best signing was Ashton, that is the bitter pill we have to swallow, but whilst we (not me) pilloried them he just made them Prem ready, OTIB at it's very best.

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, GrahamC said:

100%.

The other thing is if they didn’t have Ashton & his history with us, we would all be saying what an incredible achievement.

They really didn’t spend that big last summer, they have gone toe to toe all year with 3 sides who possess a ridiculous advantage over the others & at present are in pole position in what now looks two from three to go up automatically.

You can already hear the fans of the sides who get out of League One this season saying they’re looking to do an “Ipswich” next season, completely failing to understand this only happens around once every ten years.
 

What they did Graham was build a championship squad in Lg1.  Their recent accounts show that.  Basically a mid-table championship budget whilst in the tier below.  So they didn’t need to mad in the summer, bar promotion wage increases.

I misjudged how well they’d do though.  I guess if there is one silver lining it’s that one of the three relegated clubs will stay down.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Had a quick look at Ipswich Parent Company Accounts as valuation reminded me.

The Gamechanger Accounts take a lot of the same items and costs but...bit higher? Albeit Goodwill is excluded from P&S so maybe it all computes out.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Granted the 2022 ones perhaps not as that is 16 months but the 12 month comparison...

Not looked in depth but you can lop off £3,317,000 in Goodwill from the Gamechanger higher Loss in 2022-23. Perhaps Gamechanger for FFP is an irrelevant consideration Idk.

Edited April 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[cidercity1987]

Shittest wall I've ever seen

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just seen score.

On one hand Mark Ashton and my belief that Ipswich are not quite as good as they are showing man for man v 3 Parachute clubs means I hope they stay down,  otoh Leicester staying down will be truly fascinating given their financial saga.

I fear Southampton are too far back for top 2 now but it isn't over until it's over.

Edited April 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

On 22/03/2024 at 19:13, Alessandro said:

Phrased as investment “up to” - so presume that’s staggered over a period or even subject to clauses, promotion etc?

Late to this thread but this is likely. Most likely promotion.

Ie - we will pay for N shares now, at a price of £X per share.

Then we want an option to buy A shares within the next two years, and the price we pay for those shares at that time is £Y if we're in the PL, or is £Z if we're not.

Something like that would be pretty common, and it could also be tied to a loan that is later convertible into shares.

Has anyone checked CH to see what shares have actually been issued now, or if the PSC register has updated?

[redkev]

Deffo dive by Sargent , bit of a cheat this fellow need to watch his antics in a couple of weeks time 

[redkev]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Late to this thread but this is likely. Most likely promotion.

Ie - we will pay for N shares now, at a price of £X per share.

Then we want an option to buy A shares within the next two years, and the price we pay for those shares at that time is £Y if we're in the PL, or is £Z if we're not.

Something like that would be pretty common, and it could also be tied to a loan that is later convertible into shares.

Has anyone checked CH to see what shares have actually been issued now, or if the PSC register has updated?

All way above my head I’m afraid

[Super]

3 minutes ago, redkev said:

Deffo dive by Sargent , bit of a cheat this fellow need to watch his antics in a couple of weeks time 

It was a brilliant decision.

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Late to this thread but this is likely. Most likely promotion.

Ie - we will pay for N shares now, at a price of £X per share.

Then we want an option to buy A shares within the next two years, and the price we pay for those shares at that time is £Y if we're in the PL, or is £Z if we're not.

Something like that would be pretty common, and it could also be tied to a loan that is later convertible into shares.

Has anyone checked CH to see what shares have actually been issued now, or if the PSC register has updated?

Lots of activity here:

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12763756/filing-history

[cidercity1987]

Ipswich look well off the pace today

As just about the only poster on OTIB thinking we are still on the very outer edge of the play off race, this would be a very bad result