Chill your beans...!

[Mr Popodopolous]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I honestly don’t think we are too far over the £39m based on current projections and an expectation that some players will leave this summer, a combination of those allowed to leave OOC and those contracted being moved on.

Re Massengo, he either gets sold, bringing us in money, or he signs a new contract that smooths the money over a longer period.  Same with Kalas.

So I don’t see us getting a points deduction.  Being monitored by EFL, yep, but not a points deduction.

It does mean we have to be frugal, it won’t be easy.

We will know more as and when conclusions are reached on Massengo.  I actually think he will stay.  Maybe that’s heart over head???

Let's hope I am on the pessimistic side- I often can be.

My worry is that assuming no profit on transfer- even with the released players assuming no signings. Agreed on Kalas and Massengo, smoothing the amortisation and perhaps the wages over a longer period would be beneficial- the issue is that if their contracts were signed in an era prior to this and we look to extend on existing terms, that might not be compatible with a business plan or the terms of some kinda embargo. Obviously selling them would very much help financially.

[ray savino]

4 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said:

I don't think NP is doing a bad job, especially with his hands tied financially. I am disappointed with the inability to sort our defending of set pieces though. Seems a pretty basic area for an ex CB, especially when he stated early on that he intended to focus on sorting the defence first. 

Yes, injuries to Atkinson and Tanner have probably undermined him. However, when you look at the impact of Cooper at NFFC and Wilder at Boro it doesn't compare well to what Nige has achieved. 

Some managers are just the right fit for a club and you often see that quite quickly. I'm just not sure NP is gonna turn us around in the same way you see at some other clubs. No doubt SL will give him plenty more time to try,  as is his way. 

I sometimes think he was the manager we should have had after Cotts. Maybe he’s past his sell by. I don’t think he is. But with the results and repetitive mistakes of course I still have doubts about him at times. I know he’s not everyones cup of tea, but I do think he knows the score with our club. We are where we are has become a bit of a go to quote from him and has understandably got a slating for saying this when we do badly. But trouble is he’s right. This club has become totally wasteful in recruitment since Cotts. Yes Webster, Brownhill, etc. but the replacements? The punts? Leaving total mess. Forest, Boro, different owners, different backing, different squads with different expectations and status as clubs. They have continued to back their managers with loans. Would SL have backed them with such loans. Not so sure with the mess we have undoubtedly been left with after CEO Ashton. Didn’t Cooper leave Swansea as he wasn’t going to get the backing to subtantially improve the squad?

Not trying to defend NP as having any responsibility for the poor results, but where do we find a magician of a manager without taking a punt or paying an absolute fortune that will turn this around painlessly. Yes, I would expect our defending to be much better considering his playing experience. But I do think so does he. I get a distinct impression that he looks on in disbelief in some of the lack of courage, nous and concentration of some of our players. He knows there are a fair few with us that he thinks ain’t got what it takes, but he ain’t got the resources afforded to him as to others over the last 6 seasons. Wow and we were told about the careful research into a players DNA.

Look, it’s pretty crap, there have been some good stuff. At least get behind the team to stay up this season. Then the summer activity or lack of will be very telling to the ambitions and situation of this club.

[Davefevs]

32 minutes ago, ray savino said:

I sometimes think he was the manager we should have had after Cotts. Maybe he’s past his sell by. I don’t think he is.

Nor do I, I think it’s an easy label to throw at a 58 year old. You listen to him and you hear him confirm he know the game has changed, it’s no longer 442, it’s 433 / 343, it’s about explosive power and pace.  He’s not stuck in an old era.  But he’s been dealt a crappy hand of cards, and he’s trying to gradually change things.
But with the results and repetitive mistakes of course I still have doubts about him at times. I know he’s not everyones cup of tea, but I do think he knows the score with our club. We are where we are has become a bit of a go to quote from him and has understandably got a slating for saying this when we do badly. But trouble is he’s right. This club has become totally wasteful in recruitment since Cotts. Yes Webster, Brownhill, etc. but the replacements? The punts? Leaving total mess.

A punt in Cott’s time was £50k on Garita.  A punt in LJ / MA’s time was £1.5m on Engvall.  In fairness I do think several of the players they signed were decent players, it’s just they didn’t fit into a plan, partly because it was ever-changing.  Nige’s punts are free transfers on relatively low wages (I suspect).

Forest, Boro, different owners, different backing, different squads with different expectations and status as clubs.

Different revenue amounts until we developed the stadium too.  We’ve had to play catch up but I think we tried to run before we could walk.  I never thought we’d spend £5.3m on Diedhiou in the summer of 2017.

They have continued to back their managers with loans. Would SL have backed them with such loans. Not so sure with the mess we have undoubtedly been left with after CEO Ashton.

The problem with loans is that at some point you have to buy them, to keep the same levels.  We did that with Kalas, Dasilva and Palmer - £14m to standstill from 18/19.  Then you lose Webster, Pack and Kelly, and ultimately you’ve gone backwards.

Didn’t Cooper leave Swansea as he wasn’t going to get the backing to subtantially improve the squad?

Yep, protecting his reputation I guess.  I don’t blame him, but would be interesting to see how he’d be doing this season at Swansea.

Not trying to defend NP as having any responsibility for the poor results, but where do we find a magician of a manager without taking a punt or paying an absolute fortune that will turn this around painlessly. Yes, I would expect our defending to be much better considering his playing experience.

I can’t imagine what he things about some of it.  You can coach, but you can’t cross the white line on their behalf.  It’s mainly individual mistakes or a combo of several individual mistakes of late.  I’m sure there are some tactical issues too, but I think you could put out the current eleven in any formation and it wouldn’t guarantee success.  We’ve missed key players at various points of the season.  I suspect deep down Nige is a bit cheesed off that he’s had certain players missing like King and James, who he would’ve been relying on.  That’s one for him to re-think this summer.

But I do think so does he. I get a distinct impression that he looks on in disbelief in some of the lack of courage, nous and concentration of some of our players. He knows there are a fair few with us that he thinks ain’t got what it takes, but he ain’t got the resources afforded to him as to others over the last 6 seasons. Wow and we were told about the careful research into a players DNA.

Running with a small squad - through choice or necessity (bit of both I suspect) exposes every injury or drop in form, let alone those not on the bus.

Look, it’s pretty crap, there have been some good stuff. At least get behind the team to stay up this season. Then the summer activity or lack of will be very telling to the ambitions and situation of this club.

yep, we are 6-8 months into a 3 year plan.

Lots of stuff mirroring my own thoughts.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Would ask a followup question though @Davefevs

Like I say, certainly hope you are right but in the event we go over FFP, why do we avoid a points deduction and subsequent Business Plan? That seems to be the EFL's default position.

Sliding scale etc. I also outlined 3 scenarios on the Accounts thread as to what our 2023 numbers might look like and all 3 showed an overspend but the numbers varied based on inputs and modelling can at times only be as good as the data available at the time, same probably goes for financial extrapolations. The lower the possible overspend, the better it'll be.

[Davefevs]

22 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Would ask a followup question though @Davefevs

Like I say, certainly hope you are right but in the event we go over FFP, why do we avoid a points deduction and subsequent Business Plan? That seems to be the EFL's default position.

Sliding scale etc. I also outlined 3 scenarios on the Accounts thread as to what our 2023 numbers might look like and all 3 showed an overspend but the numbers varied based on inputs and modelling can at times only be as good as the data available at the time, same probably goes for financial extrapolations. The lower the possible overspend, the better it'll be.

If we go over FFP allowances we will incur whatever penalty the EFL deem appropriate, including points deductions.

I guess what I’m saying is that we won’t go over….because we have 16 months to plug the gaps (in whichever of your overspend scenarios are closest to reality), including 3 transfer windows.  I sound like I’m being blasé, I’m not trying to be, just think it’s a no1 priority to cut costs to bring us in under £39m.

RG’s lobbying is to try and make that as easy as possible, even giving us spending power too.

Gonna be interesting seeing other clubs’ accounts coming in.

[Mr Popodopolous]

27 minutes ago, Tafkarmlf said:

I don't think that we are going to be in FFP trouble as mentioned in the account threads and subsequently, we wouldn't have signed Tanner, Atkinson, Klose etc if we were to be censured by FFP. 

As mentioned and fwiw the headline figures have put the fear of god into some especially given the press coverage. 

Yes, its an awful loss and completely insane, however as mentioned there are a number of extenuating circumstances abd and that includes the Swiss Ramble guess at 5 mill for Covid costs that everyone has latched on to despite the EFLs own guidelines being different. 

I'm worried that we're a basket case of a club financially, but I'm not overly concerned by FFP and the constant panic over fire sales etc as in this case we've got mitigation. 

I might be the only one as per, but this is very much wait and see rather than panic like all hell. 

Time will tell won't it. We can wait and see but I've modelled 3 scenarios on the Accounts thread.

I genuinely believe that if we get through the likely problems to next season we will have more room. Just look at how many are as it stands out of contract come Summer 2023.

Swiss Ramble reckoned our Covid costs £18m, the stories in the papers reckoned a £5m allowance.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

50 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Time will tell won't it. We can wait and see but I've modelled 3 scenarios on the Accounts thread.

I genuinely believe that if we get through the likely problems to next season we will have more room. Just look at how many are as it stands out of contract come Summer 2023.

Swiss Ramble reckoned our Covid costs £18m, the stories in the papers reckoned a £5m allowance.

Kieran Maguire he’s not sure why he plucked £5m from.  The rules are clear.  What we don’t know as outsiders are how City are gonna apply the rules to their accounts.

I’ve gone conservative with £1.800m in 19/20 and £10.435m in 20/21.

[The Original OTIB]

6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Or are we moving fast enough to keep our starlets

Starlets are young ladies, are they not?

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Kieran Maguire he’s not sure why he plucked £5m from.  The rules are clear.  What we don’t know as outsiders are how City are gonna apply the rules to their accounts.

I’ve gone conservative with £1.800m in 19/20 and £10.435m in 20/21.

Thanks. Yes it will depend- would have thought that we will try to put as much as we can in.

Would that be net revenue loss - savings or perhaps 2018/19 -to 2019/20 is a £1.8m fall and then a further £10.435m in 2020/21.

ie £30m - £1.8m=2019/20.

£30m-£1.8m-£10.435m=2020/21.

Of course it'd be especially galling if we got a deduction for the breach but eg Stoke were saved by the £30m Covid Impairment and Cardiff by for example writing back £15-20m on Sala if they win their case.

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Thanks. Yes it will depend- would have thought that we will try to put as much as we can in.

Would that be net revenue loss - savings or perhaps 2018/19 -to 2019/20 is a £1.8m fall and then a further £10.435m in 2020/21.

ie £30m - £1.8m=2019/20.

£30m-£1.8m-£10.435m=2020/21.

Of course it'd be especially galling if we got a deduction for the breach but eg Stoke were saved by the £30m Covid Impairment and Cardiff by for example writing back £15-20m on Sala if they win their case.

I basically looked at what revenue types might be acceptable to claim reduced due to covid.  So although revenues were down £2.4m in 19/20, I don’t think we can claim all of it.

As I said I’ve been cautious, i.e. not gone for £18m (total of both years) like Swiss Ramble, but gone for a lesser amount.

[Guest]

We are where we are BUT....... I look at teams like; Brighton, Watford, Palace, Brentford, Burnley, Norwich currently in the Prem and the current top six in this div and ask why are they where they are and we are, well, where we are? (dont say prem payments as they had to get there in the first place, without the payments)

They have not got, better grounds, more fans, so it must be that they have employed better managers than us, over the past years to get where they are.

Who in those clubs and our club employs/takes on those said managers.........I rest my case.

We have made poor manager choices for a while now, hopefully the latest will break the trend.

[Numero Uno]

7 hours ago, gl2 said:

We are where we are BUT....... I look at teams like; Brighton, Watford, Palace, Brentford, Burnley, Norwich currently in the Prem and the current top six in this div and ask why are they where they are and we are, well, where we are? (dont say prem payments as they had to get there in the first place, without the payments)

They have not got, better grounds, more fans, so it must be that they have employed better managers than us, over the past years to get where they are.

Who in those clubs and our club employs/takes on those said managers.........I rest my case.

We have made poor manager choices for a while now, hopefully the latest will break the trend.

That's the aim although we also have to be realistic. In our position to "buck the trend" will take time and that is 100% on the Owner who gave Swiss Toni so much freedom and support to build his own little empire and royally **** us right up. I know the bloke can do no wrong in the eyes of many on here but his support of Swiss is the biggest **** up he's ever made.......and on the football playing side of things he's made more than a few.

And like I said on another thread the same people in the "Steve can do no wrong" camp are so blind that they simply won't see the blatant irony of their snide digs at the current manager...................the bloke that Steve isn't going to sack any time soon.

[supercidered]

On 05/02/2022 at 18:51, Tafkarmlf said:

Mate, with shoulder issues and the rest of it had a heck of a lot of 'free time' to watch us recently. 

Your presentation of stats there shows that 42.8 % of our losses are by more than two goals 

That's scarily high. We get tonked, often. Is a fair statement, whichever way you want to look at it and though the rest of the post is fair and balanced though clearly you disagree. 

Big game Wednesday. 

I think I'm getting the impression that you think it's a big game on Wednesday

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, supercidered said:

I think I'm getting the impression that you think it's a big game on Wednesday

 

City - red

Teams with >= City - green

Number in black.

A decent correlation to league position….my interpretation is that it’s nothing out of the ordinary.

@ExiledAjax

[ExiledAjax]

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

 

City - red

Teams with >= City - green

Number in black.

A decent correlation to league position….my interpretation is that it’s nothing out of the ordinary.

@ExiledAjax

Peterborough. Eesh. That's what getting "tonked regularly" looks like.

[RobintheRed Red]

On 05/02/2022 at 19:14, Southport Red said:

Agree with all that Dave, would only add that Williams came out on the positive side too. Had forgotten Wiemann was playing until he got subbed off. 

Weinmann and Martin were both crap at the seaside .

[RedM]

3 hours ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Indeed if only there was a discussion about a different club, 

However Peterborough have only conceded 1 more goal than us according to this. 

https://footystats.org/england/championship

Bristol City Goals against 54

Peterborough Goals against 55

Indeed only Peterborough and Reading have conceded more, both by one goal. 

0-0 Wednesday then

As an aside, stats are great arent they? especially when people use  them to try and look smart and fail miserably, as a general rule

Not read all this thread so probably already mentioned, but Peterborough have three games in hand on us and Reading two.

So possibly they are shipping in more goals than us, but they have more chances left to redeem themselves.

[Sir Geoff]

17 hours ago, RedM said:

Not read all this thread so probably already mentioned, but Peterborough have three games in hand on us and Reading two.

So possibly they are shipping in more goals than us, but they have more chances left to redeem themselves.

They play each other next week which makes it essential that we don't lose to Reading, otherwise they will fancy their chances of back to back wins. We would then be in their sites. Beat them and imo we are almost there. Low 40's will suffice.