Tinkering at the Edges - FFP

[Port Said Red]

I know there was a thread on this sometime back and @Mr Popodopolous, @Davefevsand some of the finance savvy posters had their say, but I thought it might be a time to resurrect the conversation, with questions about the club having to sell the kids.

My hope is that they will be able to show that we can be within FFP without selling the crown jewels.

How would it look if we were for example able to: -

* Sell Kalas for a 7 figure fee and save on his wages.

* Sell/giveaway Moore and Bakinson

* Sell/giveaway Wells (not sure we should)

* Somehow find a suitor for Palmer on loan with a hefty bit of help on wages.

* Release O'Dowda and save on his wages

I know I am being vague and probably missing issues around amortisation over contract lengths etc, but hopefully someone can show a positive scenario where we perhaps only lose HNM at worst.

 

 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

There are several scenarios I've put in, FFP wise although not looked at it in some depth for a while. The amount that needs doing will be linked to the scenario and the shortfall that we might need to make up.

My gut feeling is selling Kalas and Massengo would certainly do the job. Might not even come to that if Webster, Kelly, Brownhill yield decent sell on clauses but that very much is a bonus- ie not something we can assume.

Maybe selling Kalas, releasing King and O'Dowda does the job-this would mean very limited sigings, perhaps none.

Of course if we can get some good headroom then we can be creative- Moore, Bakinson, Palmer, Wells perhaps we can offer loans with a partial coverage of wages- that while not ideal still represents a saving.

Decisions to make too on Cundy and Klose- will we see Baker again given his fitness issues this season...if he's released perhaps there can be some offset on FFP in his case due to medical issues.

[Port Said Red]

The sell on's are as you say very much bonus money, although to be fair that's why we put them in in the first place.

I think the key will be whether we will want to do our business early or play a brinkmanship game, e.g. if we think that one of those sell on deals will go through, could we hold on to the "crown jewels" until deadline day?

[And Its Smith]

The two biggest things we can do to help towards FFP which wouldn’t weaken is to find homes for Wells and Palmer.  This is a must.  The next one which is more arguable as would weaken us is to sell Kalas.  
 

I can’t understand anyone who wants to keep Wells considering his lack of impact this season and huge wages. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

The sell on's are as you say very much bonus money, although to be fair that's why we put them in in the first place.

I think the key will be whether we will want to do our business early or play a brinkmanship game, e.g. if we think that one of those sell on deals will go through, could we hold on to the "crown jewels" until deadline day?

Lots of variables and moving parts aren't there. What other clubs are allowed should also be a factor.

If Stoke eg are permitted £56m in Covid losses and offsets over 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons as they're claiming then I don't see how we could be strongly punished for much lower pre tax losses but much more 'honest' Covid losses in an FFP context if they're let off.

Oh yeah by bonus I just mean not to be relied on.

Birmingham in summer 2018 a classic example. Butland and Gray sell on fee was what they were pinning their hopes on. Technically the EFL under Harvey let that drag on longer than it should, sounds like they were able to backdate or would have been...

We don't technically have to fix the numbers until March 2023 at the earliest but if we don't do it early, we'll be under undoubted restrictions.

[Mr Sno]

14 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

The two biggest things we can do to help towards FFP which wouldn’t weaken is to find homes for Wells and Palmer.  This is a must.  The next one which is more arguable as would weaken us is to sell Kalas.  
 

I can’t understand anyone who wants to keep Wells considering his lack of impact this season and huge wages. 

Not on the ridiculous astronomical wages he is on. I would accept an offer of £0 for him, same with Palmer, just get them off the books.

[Port Said Red]

2 minutes ago, Mr Sno said:

Not on the ridiculous astronomical wages he is on. I would accept an offer of £0 for him, same with Palmer, just get them off the books.

I think the problem with just giving players away mid contract is how it effects their value in the previous seasons? It's a shame with Wells as he apparently is very influential off the pitch, but clearly at a price we can't really afford.

[REDOXO]

11 minutes ago, Mr Sno said:

Not on the ridiculous astronomical wages he is on. I would accept an offer of £0 for him, same with Palmer, just get them off the books.

They have contracts. Getting them/Palmer to go for less of a wage is no easy task. Wells might to play as has alluded but we need a willing buyer. Palmer couldn’t get a game at Taunton Town right now so I’m not hopeful. 

[spudski]

For me...we have to do everything we can to keep the youngsters.

My preference would be for Palmer, Kalas, Wells, Baker, Odowda, Bakinson, and Moore to move on. 

If a young en has to go...then HNM. But as a last resort.

Seeing some of these young ens come through the academy and develop this season..it would be absolutely gutting to see them move on and shine at another club....before we've even seen their best.

Move them on for big fees...then what? Settle the books and replace with journeymen Championship level players going through the motions? No thanks. 

Everything should be done to keep them. 

It's the one thing that has brought some joy watching them develop.

The club need to be mindful that fans will talk with their feet if we offer up mediocrity with nothing exciting.

 

[chinapig]

I think some people mix up the overall losses with the FFP position.

Unless Steve says he wants £xm paid off the losses we should not need to sell any of the crown jewels.

To stay within FFP we need to make savings but nowhere near as much as people may think. Reducing the squad size and therefore the wage bill with sufficient fringe players leaving may be enough, especially if we make savings in non-football running costs as well.

[Mr Popodopolous]

10 minutes ago, spudski said:

For me...we have to do everything we can to keep the youngsters.

My preference would be for Palmer, Kalas, Wells, Baker, Odowda, Bakinson, and Moore to move on. 

If a young en has to go...then HNM. But as a last resort.

Seeing some of these young ens come through the academy and develop this season..it would be absolutely gutting to see them move on and shine at another club....before we've even seen their best.

Move them on for big fees...then what? Settle the books and replace with journeymen Championship level players going through the motions? No thanks. 

Everything should be done to keep them. 

It's the one thing that has brought some joy watching them develop.

The club need to be mindful that fans will talk with their feet if we offer up mediocrity with nothing exciting.

 

Totally agree in principle though of that 6, would ideally want Kalas to stay.

The other issue is that in terms of Moore, Bakinson, Palmer and Wells it's one thing to say move them on but how do we do this in reality?

Baker's future we just don't know, can he even play again. Albeit he still has a year left on his contract. With his injuries, who is buying?

King and O'Dowda I expect will be released. Kalas is saleable.

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 minutes ago, chinapig said:

I think some people mix up the overall losses with the FFP position.

Unless Steve says he wants £xm paid off the losses we should not need to sell any of the crown jewels.

To stay within FFP we need to make savings but nowhere near as much as people may think. Reducing the squad size and therefore the wage bill with sufficient fringe players leaving may be enough, especially if we make savings in non-football running costs as well.

I am thinking £4-5m in terms of a hole to fill but I am often a bit bearish in my predictions and that's possibly overstating it on my part. Have several scenarios too.

Telegraph article suggested that we were losing £2m per month.

£24m - £5m in normal FFP allowances - £2.5m in Covid permitted addbacks=£16.5m FFP loss.

If that article is accurate (big if) then I'd be comfortable in my prediction of a £4-5m shortfall.

Edited April 24, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

29 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I think the problem with just giving players away mid contract is how it effects their value in the previous seasons? It's a shame with Wells as he apparently is very influential off the pitch, but clearly at a price we can't really afford.

In the final year of the deal it can cancel out ie loss on disposal if they leave on a free vs amortisation saved. Assuming we're amortising straight line it should compute out for the last year.

[tin]

Personally, I’d be content with losing any of Moore, Vyner, Baker, O’Dowda, Palmer or Wells and to a lesser extent Bentley or Kalas.

Moving on Palmer and Wells would save around £60k a week and would go a long way to solving our FFP position (saving over £3m a year), especially if a windfall from Kelly or Brownhill was forthcoming. Add Moore, Vyner and O’Dowda and it could be job done. 

On King, he’s not on big bucks and his experience is vital and I’d keep him as a player/academy coach if he was up for that. How many times have we had a City fan who’s a PL winner and an international on our books? Don’t underestimate his experience or desire to help us. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by tin

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Port Said Red said:

I know there was a thread on this sometime back and @Mr Popodopolous, @Davefevsand some of the finance savvy posters had their say, but I thought it might be a time to resurrect the conversation, with questions about the club having to sell the kids.

My hope is that they will be able to show that we can be within FFP without selling the crown jewels.

How would it look if we were for example able to: -

* Sell Kalas for a 7 figure fee and save on his wages.

* Sell/giveaway Moore and Bakinson

* Sell/giveaway Wells (not sure we should)

* Somehow find a suitor for Palmer on loan with a hefty bit of help on wages.

* Release O'Dowda and save on his wages

I know I am being vague and probably missing issues around amortisation over contract lengths etc, but hopefully someone can show a positive scenario where we perhaps only lose HNM at worst.

 

 

 

There are multiple scenarios that can play out, as others have mentioned.  Selling Kalas for £4m(ish) would probably bring us within FFP on its own…wages saved, profit against value and amortisation saved.

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

The two biggest things we can do to help towards FFP which wouldn’t weaken is to find homes for Wells and Palmer.  This is a must.  The next one which is more arguable as would weaken us is to sell Kalas.  
 

I can’t understand anyone who wants to keep Wells considering his lack of impact this season and huge wages. 

Being slightly pedantic, I think losing Wells might weaken our squad, Palmer not though.

The only way I’d want to keep Wells is by him accepting a lower wage and spread his amortisation over a longer period…that would cut costs.  Because I don’t think you can replace him without spending money.  If you think Conway can fill that void, then I’m totally happy with that.  But Wells isn’t shit by any stretch of the imagination…just hasn’t been as good as WSM. If he had to play regularly he’d get a dozen goals over a season I reckon.  I wouldn’t dismiss that.  A number of OTIBers dissed Martin’s contribution. 10g / 5a is totally fine when Weimann is 20 / 9 and Semenyo is 7 / 10.

Plus Wells has been good off the pitch too.

Ideally we move him on and the finances work out nicely, but the above scenario wouldn’t be the worst.

28 minutes ago, spudski said:

For me...we have to do everything we can to keep the youngsters.

My preference would be for Palmer, Kalas, Wells, Baker, Odowda, Bakinson, and Moore to move on. 

If a young en has to go...then HNM. But as a last resort.

Seeing some of these young ens come through the academy and develop this season..it would be absolutely gutting to see them move on and shine at another club....before we've even seen their best.

Move them on for big fees...then what? Settle the books and replace with journeymen Championship level players going through the motions? No thanks. 

Everything should be done to keep them. 

It's the one thing that has brought some joy watching them develop.

The club need to be mindful that fans will talk with their feet if we offer up mediocrity with nothing exciting.

 

Yep, if you could play the summer out like That would be sweet.

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, tin said:

Personally, I’d be content with losing any of Moore, Vyner, Baker, O’Dowda, Palmer or Wells and to a lesser extent Bentley or Kalas.

Moving on Palmer and Wells would save around £60k a week and would go a long way to solving our FFP position (saving over £3m a year), especially if a windfall from Kelly or Brownhill was forthcoming. Add Moore, Vyner and O’Dowda and it could be job done. 

On King, he’s not on big bucks and his experience is vital and I’d keep him as a player/academy coach if he was up for that. How many times have we had a City fan who’s a PL winner and an international on our books? Don’t underestimate his experience or desire to help us. 

Re King - would not surprise me if he got another year on a similar basis to Simpson…coaches salary incentivised by playing / making squad.  I’d be fine with that.

If he was being let go, I see no reason why he made the last two 18s.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Should also point out although it's probably unnecessary for me to do so, that when cost savings or profit on transfers are spoken about it certainly with the idea of a business plan moving forward with hit saving and then spend.

More like say £4-5m saving or increased revenue needed, you get £7m in savings/improvement via released players and Kalas sold say.

Of the £7m improvement in that scenario, you can only reinvest £2-3m back into the side that season..the remainder is to keep the right side of FFP.

Saving/improvement-Existing/forecast FFP hole=Reinvestable amount.

Edited April 24, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Sno]

21 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Re King - would not surprise me if he got another year on a similar basis to Simpson…coaches salary incentivised by playing / making squad.  I’d be fine with that.

If he was being let go, I see no reason why he made the last two 18s.

If he was going to be paid £500/£600 quid a week I would agree, but realisticly he would be on a few grand a week that 1) we could save 2) put towards a better player - perhaps an unfair comparison but after Brunt last season and Simpson this season I just don't see how it can be justified.

Also worth noting that the less he plays the worse his legs are going to get, danger of being a liability ala brunt if thrown in when desperate. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by Mr Sno

[candygram for mongo]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

The two biggest things we can do to help towards FFP which wouldn’t weaken is to find homes for Wells and Palmer.  This is a must.  The next one which is more arguable as would weaken us is to sell Kalas.  
 

I can’t understand anyone who wants to keep Wells considering his lack of impact this season and huge wages. 

I could be way off the mark here but I have a feeling that Pearson is not a fan of Kalas and think he could be sold if there are any takers

[Mr Sno]

24 minutes ago, candygram for mongo said:

I could be way off the mark here but I have a feeling that Pearson is not a fan of Kalas and think he could be sold if there are any takers

If there are takers he will definitely be sold - 1 year left on deal and big wages - mad to keep him.

[Supersonic Robin]

26 minutes ago, candygram for mongo said:

I could be way off the mark here but I have a feeling that Pearson is not a fan of Kalas and think he could be sold if there are any takers

I think it's more that Pearson realises that Kalas poses a financial problem, as oppose to not rating him as a footballer. 

[JoeAman08]

3 hours ago, tin said:

Personally, I’d be content with losing any of Moore, Vyner, Baker, O’Dowda, Palmer or Wells and to a lesser extent Bentley or Kalas.

Moving on Palmer and Wells would save around £60k a week and would go a long way to solving our FFP position (saving over £3m a year), especially if a windfall from Kelly or Brownhill was forthcoming. Add Moore, Vyner and O’Dowda and it could be job done. 

On King, he’s not on big bucks and his experience is vital and I’d keep him as a player/academy coach if he was up for that. How many times have we had a City fan who’s a PL winner and an international on our books? Don’t underestimate his experience or desire to help us. 

I’m content on losing pretty much anyone. Especially anyone signed for a decent fee pre covid. Bentley, Wells, Palmer, Dasilva and Kalas. I think in all their cases we can find 90% of the player in terms of ability for 50% of the cost. Now I doubt it’ll be easy to sell all of them but perhaps some hope with them all being in the final year of their deals. Selling them really helps the rebuild. 
 

COD going is obvious imo. I’d be hopeful we can move on from Moore. Bakinson in the Moore category. Not ready to let Vyner walk though. Let his contract expire by all means but he won’t be on much money and can cover multiple positions. I know he is usually public enemy number 1 but have seen plenty struggle in this side. He has also been part of good performances. 
 

King is a tough one but his injuries aren’t worth the wage. Think a CDM is on our radar and we still have Williams, James, Scott and Benarous to play in midfield. That’ll be 5 plus think young Kadji is a midfielder and could fill some minutes if necessary. Correct me if I am wrong on that one.

 

I am resigned to Massengo leaving. I am guessing we’d get 4-5m for him. Think that’ll help a good deal for FFP. Especially if we can get 2-3 of the first group off the books. 
 

Then we have the saleable assets. I’d love to keep them but I also want NP to have a bit of money to sign what he wants. I want to give him a fair chance next season. Not sure that happens with 1-2 free transfers. 

[BS4 on Tour...]

“Tinkering at the Edges” - a perfect description of my dance floor activities at Papillons back in the day - it’s a phrase that is also in the running for the title of my autobiography ... along with “Life as a Pedantic Pr!ck” and “Raw Meat and Malbec” ...

Edited April 24, 2022 by BS4 on Tour...

[Taz]

4 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

The two biggest things we can do to help towards FFP which wouldn’t weaken is to find homes for Wells and Palmer.  This is a must.  The next one which is more arguable as would weaken us is to sell Kalas.  
 

I can’t understand anyone who wants to keep Wells considering his lack of impact this season and huge wages. 

Whilst I hope we can keep hold of Kalas, if losing him means we keep our better prospects and can still replace him with a decent (but cheaper) replacement, then I'm all for it. Whilst I don't think he is the reason we have been shipping goals, we do seem better defensively in the past few games without him. I do think he has just been flogged to death, and we have been seriously light at the back for a while. I also think that as a team, we are also working better together recently, so the loss of Kalas isn't as big an issue as it would have been 6 months ago.Klose will also hopefully sign an extension to take him into next season, as his experience I think is starting to show through.

On the subject of selling the prospects, Scott I think will be seen as "one to watch" until January at least, but probably next season, and Semenyo I think stays, as it seems both him and his agent are happy with how things are, so can actually see him with an improved contract, possibly a release clause if a club offers £x. If the latter hits the ground running next season though, January could be dodgy.

Han Noah I think it all depends on the contract situation, but think he stays.

If we have to sell, I think Kalas is a more likely option.

Edited April 24, 2022 by Taz

[And Its Smith]

5 minutes ago, Taz said:

Whilst I hope we can keep hold of Kalas, if losing him means we keep our better prospects and can still replace him with a decent (but cheaper) replacement, then I'm all for it. Whilst I don't think he is the reason we have been shipping goals, we do seem better defensively in the past few games without him. I do think he has just been flogged to death, and we have been seriously light at the back for a while. I also think that as a team, we are also working better together recently, so the loss of Kalas isn't as big an issue as it would have been 6 months ago.Klose will also hopefully sign an extension to take him into next season, as his experience I think is starting to show through.

On the subject of selling the prospects, Scott I think will be seen as "one to watch" until January at least, but probably next season, and Semenyo I think stays, as it seems both him and his agent are happy with how things are, so can actually see him with an improved contract, possibly a release clause if a club offers £x. If the latter hits the ground running next season though, January could be dodgy.

Han Noah I think it all depends on the contract situation, but think he stays.

If we have to sell, I think Kalas is a more likely option.

I’m convinced Massengo is off. Agreed on Kalas 

[Sir Geoff]

11 hours ago, Supersonic Robin said:

I think it's more that Pearson realises that Kalas poses a financial problem, as oppose to not rating him as a footballer. 

I can't imagine that it hasn't gone unnoticed by Pearson that we have been more solid defensively since Kalas has been out of the team.

[Simon bristol]

8 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

I’m convinced Massengo is off. Agreed on Kalas 

Agreed, but im not sure massengo would be a huge loss. Id like him to stay and appreciate his work rate but his goals and assists record is shocking, and his habit of giving the ball away and giving the opposition opportunities is rather upsetting. Midfield has been a major problem for us and him going would free up a place, maybe for benarous, and help out with ffp too.

[And Its Smith]

18 minutes ago, Simon bristol said:

Agreed, but im not sure massengo would be a huge loss. Id like him to stay and appreciate his work rate but his goals and assists record is shocking, and his habit of giving the ball away and giving the opposition opportunities is rather upsetting. Midfield has been a major problem for us and him going would free up a place, maybe for benarous, and help out with ffp too.

I think it would be a big loss as he will go somewhere and get the consistency that he is currently lacking a bit. When he is on his game he is incredible. Just needs a bit more improvement which will come as he is young. I don’t think goals and assist stats matter that much for the kind of player he is. Every team needs a player doing the chasing and dirty work. 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

I think it would be a big loss as he will go somewhere and get the consistency that he is currently lacking a bit. When he is on his game he is incredible. Just needs a bit more improvement which will come as he is young. I don’t think goals and assist stats matter that much for the kind of player he is. Every team needs a player doing the chasing and dirty work. 

Yep, can get too blinkered by assists and goals.  He does need to improve that output though.  But on Saturday although he made a couple of bad passing, i thought his introduction was a part of us finishing the game strongly.  We were under a fair bit of pressure with Derby back in it at 2-1. We saw it out well, getting the 3rd goal in that period.

I am resigned to him leaving now, but I really hope we can keep him.

[Midred]

5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, can get too blinkered by assists and goals.  He does need to improve that output though.  But on Saturday although he made a couple of bad passing, i thought his introduction was a part of us finishing the game strongly.  We were under a fair bit of pressure with Derby back in it at 2-1. We saw it out well, getting the 3rd goal in that period.

I am resigned to him leaving now, but I really hope we can keep him.

Is this down to advice from his agent or even his father?