124%

[Gazred]

Is the current contribution by our strike force for goal targets/expectations set by the management.

This was mentioned in the press conf by NP, along with a quote from Rooney post match that our front 3 "are as good as anything in the league".

Weirdly, it doesn't feel like it. Probably because of results and overall performances. We do have a very competitive attack.

I'm thinking perhaps 1 understudy signing for Martin if nobody moves on in the summer (Wells seems likely). Nige seems pretty pleased with what he's got right now.

 

[Davefevs]

27 minutes ago, Gazred said:

Is the current contribution by our strike force for goal targets/expectations set by the management.

This was mentioned in the press conf by NP, along with a quote from Rooney post match that our front 3 "are as good as anything in the league".

Weirdly, it doesn't feel like it. Probably because of results and overall performances. We do have a very competitive attack.

I'm thinking perhaps 1 understudy signing for Martin if nobody moves on in the summer (Wells seems likely). Nige seems pretty pleased with what he's got right now.

 

20, 10, 7 & 3.

Wells likely to try to be moved on.  One senior(ish) striker to come in I reckon, Conway and Bell to challenge them.

[ExiledAjax]

44 minutes ago, Gazred said:

I'm thinking perhaps 1 understudy signing for Martin

We have Conway and Janneh to understudy imo. Personally I don't expect any striker to be signed this summer, unless someone leaves for very big money.

In general yes our strikeforce has been potent. Very much quality over quantity of shot and chance creation. We don't overwhelm opponents, but when we do get forward we are dangerous.

[Gazred]

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

We have Conway and Janneh to understudy imo. Personally I don't expect any striker to be signed this summer, unless someone leaves for very big money.

In general yes our strikeforce has been potent. Very much quality over quantity of shot and chance creation. We don't overwhelm opponents, but when we do get forward we are dangerous.

Was thinking more like for like, plus more mobility. I like what I've seen of Conway so far, thought Janneh might of done more during his loan  so not sure he'll be in contention.

More to come from Bell next season if he can get mins up top.

Unless Semenyo goes, a low priority position to recruit for next season.

[Sleepy1968]

43 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

We have Conway and Janneh to understudy imo. Personally I don't expect any striker to be signed this summer, unless someone leaves for very big money.

In general yes our strikeforce has been potent. Very much quality over quantity of shot and chance creation. We don't overwhelm opponents, but when we do get forward we are dangerous.

From what I saw of Janneh - it was just one U23 game this or last month (and he got that because he's got zero games oin loan at Shrewsbury) - he is nowhere near challenging for the first team squad. I don't know how long he has left at City but if he doesn't kick on soon he'll probably need to move on.

[GrahamC]

2 minutes ago, Sleepy1968 said:

From what I saw of Janneh - it was just one U23 game this or last month (and he got that because he's got zero games oin loan at Shrewsbury) - he is nowhere near challenging for the first team squad. I don't know how long he has left at City but if he doesn't kick on soon he'll probably need to move on.

Think he’s nailed on to be told he can go this summer, 22 so quite a bit older than Conway & Bell too.

Got a year left, I believe.

[ExiledAjax]

21 minutes ago, Sleepy1968 said:

From what I saw of Janneh - it was just one U23 game this or last month (and he got that because he's got zero games oin loan at Shrewsbury) - he is nowhere near challenging for the first team squad. I don't know how long he has left at City but if he doesn't kick on soon he'll probably need to move on.

 

18 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Think he’s nailed on to be told he can go this summer, 22 so quite a bit older than Conway & Bell too.

Got a year left, I believe.

Me, I like Janneh. Saw him when he played on the Tampa trip, looked good there. I think there's a player there, but also appreciate he's not gunna be starting for us soon. As an understudy though I reckon he'd be OK.

[steviestevieneville]

Yet we still have a few slagging off Pearson for what ever agenda they can make up. This time last season & it was a consistent theme,  we we’re having games  where we weren’t even getting a corner never mind a shot on target . Yes we need to tighten up , hopefully aided with a better balanced midfield but we’re creating loads of chances now. Which is a massive positive imo 

[Davefevs]

5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

We have Conway and Janneh to understudy imo. Personally I don't expect any striker to be signed this summer, unless someone leaves for very big money.

In general yes our strikeforce has been potent. Very much quality over quantity of shot and chance creation. We don't overwhelm opponents, but when we do get forward we are dangerous.

From today’s media interview, Nige doesn’t appear to want to lose Wells (so my guesswork wrong), but Wells himself may decide he wants to move on to get more football….so I think it is a case of no striker unless one leaves.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Davefevs

[ExiledAjax]

Just ruminating on the 124% figure.

Does this mean that our strikers' combined target was 30? Weimann's 20, Martin's 10 and Semenyo’s 7 gives 37, which is 123.33% of 30.

Is he including Well's 3? If so then the target must have been 32 or 33...which is an oddly specific target. 

Imagine he's talking league only and so isn't including Janneh's 2 League Cup goals.

I suppose the other alternative is that he's not talking about targets but rather about how many goals they could have been expected to score when compared to something like xG. I'm not sure about that though as the team as a whole has only outperformed xG by a small amount - our seasonal xG for is 54.59, and we've scored 57, so only 4% above what might be reasonable. I don't know what individual player xG shows this season.

I think it's the first point, 30 goals from that front 3.

[Port Said Red]

9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Just ruminating on the 124% figure.

Does this mean that our strikers' combined target was 30? Weimann's 20, Martin's 10 and Semenyo’s 7 gives 37, which is 123.33% of 30.

Is he including Well's 3? If so then the target must have been 32 or 33...which is an oddly specific target. 

Imagine he's talking league only and so isn't including Janneh's 2 League Cup goals.

I suppose the other alternative is that he's not talking about targets but rather about how many goals they could have been expected to score when compared to something like xG. I'm not sure about that though as the team as a whole has only outperformed xG by a small amount - our seasonal xG for is 54.59, and we've scored 57, so only 4% above what might be reasonable. I don't know what individual player xG shows this season.

I think it's the first point, 30 goals from that front 3.

It's a "moneyball" thing isn't it? We can't afford a 30 goal a season striker so we look to get 30 goals from the ones we have. 

Janneh seems destined to drop back down to non-league which is a shame in a way, but he doesn't seem to have expanded his game beyond "I like to score goals".

I am surprised that Conway hasn't had more game time as the season winds down, maybe in the last 2 games. He is apparently well regarded in the club.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Port Said Red said:

It's a "moneyball" thing isn't it? We can't afford a 30 goal a season striker so we look to get 30 goals from the ones we have. 

Janneh seems destined to drop back down to non-league which is a shame in a way, but he doesn't seem to have expanded his game beyond "I like to score goals".

I am surprised that Conway hasn't had more game time as the season winds down, maybe in the last 2 games. He is apparently well regarded in the club.

I'm not sure that 30 would have been a fixed "target". Perhaps it was more of an expectation of possibility. The reality is that each season there are typically only 2 or 3 guys in the division that get to 20 goals. That means most teams need to be looking at collectively getting to 30 or so, rather than relying on one man.

As I've said, don't rest on our laurels, don't plan for Weimann to get 20 again next season, but equally don't tinker too much with something that is working.

It's tricky, but what Pearson said yesterday was pretty pragmatic and realistic. 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

Just ruminating on the 124% figure.

Does this mean that our strikers' combined target was 30? Weimann's 20, Martin's 10 and Semenyo’s 7 gives 37, which is 123.33% of 30.

Is he including Well's 3? If so then the target must have been 32 or 33...which is an oddly specific target. 

Imagine he's talking league only and so isn't including Janneh's 2 League Cup goals.

I suppose the other alternative is that he's not talking about targets but rather about how many goals they could have been expected to score when compared to something like xG. I'm not sure about that though as the team as a whole has only outperformed xG by a small amount - our seasonal xG for is 54.59, and we've scored 57, so only 4% above what might be reasonable. I don't know what individual player xG shows this season.

I think it's the first point, 30 goals from that front 3.

You sad git, sat there reverse calculating 124%.

(yeah, I did the same )

As @Port Said Redsaid, I suspect it was “we need 30 goals from our front line”.  Two 15s, an 18 and a 12, a spread of three 10s.  Can only imagine the midfield have underperformed though!

[GrahamC]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

You sad git, sat there reverse calculating 124%.

(yeah, I did the same )

As @Port Said Redsaid, I suspect it was “we need 30 goals from our front line”.  Two 15s, an 18 and a 12, a spread of three 10s.  Can only imagine the midfield have underperformed though!

Re the midfield maybe, but what’s realistic there?

None of James, HNM or Williams who are the 3 most regular picks in centre mid, are players with a track record of goal scoring, indeed one of them has never scored a single goal in senior football.

Completely get the target setting but if we expected these 3 to be the main picks (& the other obvious choice here, Andy King, clearly isn’t the goal threat that he was at his peak) then realistically James could maybe have 3 or 4, Williams possibly 1 but that’s about it.

[Pezo]

14 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

You sad git, sat there reverse calculating 124%.

(yeah, I did the same )

As @Port Said Redsaid, I suspect it was “we need 30 goals from our front line”.  Two 15s, an 18 and a 12, a spread of three 10s.  Can only imagine the midfield have underperformed though!

I knew someone else would do it and I wouldn't have to.

My money was on you @Davefevs but piped to the post by @ExiledAjax.

[ExiledAjax]

31 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

You sad git, sat there reverse calculating 124%.

(yeah, I did the same )

As @Port Said Redsaid, I suspect it was “we need 30 goals from our front line”.  Two 15s, an 18 and a 12, a spread of three 10s.  Can only imagine the midfield have underperformed though!

Yeh, lame isn't it. It just jumped out to me as Pearson doesn't often use stats and figures such as that, so I got to thinking about it.

Just rewatched and his exact words come in response to the final question, which is about whether or not Weimann has had a good season. Pearson answers that he's not had a good season, he's had a fantastic season and "...the context is that he is playing in a side, so, we've got a front three, well a strike force that have scored, when we look at how we put together targets for the squad, have scored 124% of what we expected them to." Suggests to me that it's a collective target, based on some sort of calculated expectation. Tells me as well that he initially omits Wells when he refers to the "front 3", but then attempts to bring him back in by saying "strike force". Or perhaps he's trying to move away from speaking about a "3" as we've not played with a true front 3 for large parts of this season.

I often find it difficult with Pearson to make sure I don't read too much between the lines, whilst still picking out what he leaves unsaid.

A world away from Nahki Wells unilaterally declaring that Holden's team was aiming for 90 goals for the season!

Overall we're going to end on roughly 60 goals scored. It's not awful for a Champ team, but it's not spectacular either. Midfield has underperformed yes, but I'm also looking at the half dozen penalties that the referees have left lying on the floor for us. 

At the end of the day it's improved. As always I want more shots, more on target, because if we can raise those figures and combine it with the good finishing we've shown over a few seasons, we should be nudging high 70's for goals scored. At that point we can concede as many as 60 and should still be knocking on the door of the play-offs.

Edited April 29, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Davefevs]

43 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Re the midfield maybe, but what’s realistic there?

None of James, HNM or Williams who are the 3 most regular picks in centre mid, are players with a track record of goal scoring, indeed one of them has never scored a single goal in senior football.

Completely get the target setting but if we expected these 3 to be the main picks (& the other obvious choice here, Andy King, clearly isn’t the goal threat that he was at his peak) then realistically James could maybe have 3 or 4, Williams possibly 1 but that’s about it.

I didn’t say it would be a high target

[SydneyCity]

10 hours ago, Davefevs said:

From today’s media interview, Nige doesn’t appear to want to lose Wells (so my guesswork wrong), but Wells himself may decide he wants to move on to get more football….so I think it is a case of no striker unless one leaves.

I haven’t heard the interview but I’ve always had a suspicion that, at some stage, Pearson has said something to Wells along the line of:  “I really rate you but I just can’t play you in this team/system… I plan to fix those reasons and when I do, you’ll be given your opportunity and you will shine” and Nakhi as an experienced pro has accepted it because he can see it too.

I’m literally in fantasy land with this one but I do believe it.

[SE23Red]

3 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Re the midfield maybe, but what’s realistic there?

None of James, HNM or Williams who are the 3 most regular picks in centre mid, are players with a track record of goal scoring, indeed one of them has never scored a single goal in senior football.

Completely get the target setting but if we expected these 3 to be the main picks (& the other obvious choice here, Andy King, clearly isn’t the goal threat that he was at his peak) then realistically James could maybe have 3 or 4, Williams possibly 1 but that’s about it.

Agreed. What stands out is we've played 3 from the strikers 'unit' for most of the season, so the picks in midfield will need to compensate for that and will be more defensive in their outlook.

It's why I'm less optimistic than some who say we're good up front but just need to sort out what's behind them. 30 goal output from a single striker would be outstanding. Needing three on the pitch to get that same output is probably no more than average.

To put it another way...Fulham have matched our three strikers' output with one player, giving them two extra players to deploy all season.

IMHO if we continue with three strikers on the pitch next season they need to be contributing 40+ goals between them for us to finish top half.

[chinapig]

1 hour ago, SE23Red said:

Agreed. What stands out is we've played 3 from the strikers 'unit' for most of the season, so the picks in midfield will need to compensate for that and will be more defensive in their outlook.

It's why I'm less optimistic than some who say we're good up front but just need to sort out what's behind them. 30 goal output from a single striker would be outstanding. Needing three on the pitch to get that same output is probably no more than average.

To put it another way...Fulham have matched our three strikers' output with one player, giving them two extra players to deploy all season.

IMHO if we continue with three strikers on the pitch next season they need to be contributing 40+ goals between them for us to finish top half.

What happens if you rely on a single striker for goals and he gets a bad injury or simply loses form? Mo Salah has had a bit of a bad scoring run by his standards but it's not a problem for Liverpool because their other forwards are scoring. Better to spread the goals around then.

And that one striker at Fulham is reported to be on £100k+ a week. 30 goals a season strikers are vanishingly rare and way beyond our reach.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, chinapig said:

What happens if you rely on a single striker for goals and he gets a bad injury or simply loses form? Mo Salah has had a bit of a bad scoring run by his standards but it's not a problem for Liverpool because their other forwards are scoring. Better to spread the goals around then.

And that one striker at Fulham is reported to be on £100k+ a week. 30 goals a season strikers are vanishingly rare and way beyond our reach.

And just for fun I'll say it. If Weimann had played in place of Mitrovic for Fulham this season, had taken the same 191 shots that Mitrovic has taken, and had been able to continue with a 47.4% shot on target ratio and a 26% shot to goal conversion rate...then Weimann would have 50 goals.

Bit of fun looking at the figures below. As others have said, robbed of a team of the season spot. Robbed.

[SE23Red]

52 minutes ago, chinapig said:

What happens if you rely on a single striker for goals and he gets a bad injury or simply loses form? Mo Salah has had a bit of a bad scoring run by his standards but it's not a problem for Liverpool because their other forwards are scoring. Better to spread the goals around then.

And that one striker at Fulham is reported to be on £100k+ a week. 30 goals a season strikers are vanishingly rare and way beyond our reach.

Sure, not saying it's the direction we should go in, more pointing out that the 124% figure needs to be put in the context of the number of times our starting XI has included three of the 'strikers'. Of course their collective goal output is going to increase if they're all on the pitch.

The Liverpool example is a really good one because they also play with three up front. Do you think the target for Salah, Mane & Jota combined was only 30 goals? This is why the 124% stat is meaningless, the target of 30 goals is too low for a three, a stretch for a two, and outstanding for a one.

My real point is if our recruitment in the summer is going to be based on thinking the attacking unit is overachieving we're going to fail. Because for a three they're doing fine, but to progress we'll need more.

 

[chinapig]

35 minutes ago, SE23Red said:

Sure, not saying it's the direction we should go in, more pointing out that the 124% figure needs to be put in the context of the number of times our starting XI has included three of the 'strikers'. Of course their collective goal output is going to increase if they're all on the pitch.

The Liverpool example is a really good one because they also play with three up front. Do you think the target for Salah, Mane & Jota combined was only 30 goals? This is why the 124% stat is meaningless, the target of 30 goals is too low for a three, a stretch for a two, and outstanding for a one.

My real point is if our recruitment in the summer is going to be based on thinking the attacking unit is overachieving we're going to fail. Because for a three they're doing fine, but to progress we'll need more.

 

You make a good case, though I would suggest that at Championship level an average 10 goals each for your front 3 is pretty good. Mitrovic is very much an outlier and history shows that sides get promoted without having a striker scoring 20 goals or more.

Of course the target for Liverpool's front 3 would have been much higher simply by virtue of the fact that they are some of the best players in one of the best teams in the world.

As to needing more, that might come from within perhaps through Semenyo having a full season and delivering more goals. But at the current rate we are among the higher scorers in the Championship so we don't actually need more goals imo.

We are unlikely to be able to afford strikers better than those we have anyway so for me the key to progress is to concede far fewer goals. Which seems to be Nigel's priority.

[SE23Red]

23 hours ago, chinapig said:

You make a good case, though I would suggest that at Championship level an average 10 goals each for your front 3 is pretty good. Mitrovic is very much an outlier and history shows that sides get promoted without having a striker scoring 20 goals or more.

Of course the target for Liverpool's front 3 would have been much higher simply by virtue of the fact that they are some of the best players in one of the best teams in the world.

As to needing more, that might come from within perhaps through Semenyo having a full season and delivering more goals. But at the current rate we are among the higher scorers in the Championship so we don't actually need more goals imo.

We are unlikely to be able to afford strikers better than those we have anyway so for me the key to progress is to concede far fewer goals. Which seems to be Nigel's priority.

Doesn't matter if the target is too low at 30 if they get 40 between them

They've set their own target for next season now!

[Gazred]

Get your calculators out boys!

[ExiledAjax]

23 minutes ago, Gazred said:

Get your calculators out boys!

140%