How many points will we finish on?

[Jerseybean]

So, ahead of the Preston game there are 54 points to be played for before the end of our season. Just for a bit of fun I invite your predictions for the total number of points we will have when the final whistle is blown on our final game of the season away against QPR.

To get the ball rolling I’m going for 55 points.

[cidercity1987]

61 hoping for a strong finish to the season 

[RiverRed]

I'm going for 58.

[ExiledAjax]

56. Assuming we improve our points per game by 10% then I land on 56.

33 + ((1.17*18)*1.1) = 56

[Roe]

Whatever we're on at the moment + 54

[Jerseybean]

24 minutes ago, Roe said:

Whatever we're on at the moment + 54

Just imagine that = 87 points 

[Ska Junkie]

60. nice and safe plus experience for the youngsters, ready for next season.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Ska Junkie

[Fordy62]

3 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Just imagine that = 87 points 

Next season:

7. Alex Scott (c)

[E.G.Red]

14 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Just imagine that = 87 points 

That's the average number of points for 2nd place.

I think we will get 67 which coincidently is the number of points Leicester got under NP in the 2012-13 season to finish 6th and in the playoffs. Although I don't see such a low number making the playoffs this time. I'd just like a strong finish with a positive GD.

Edited February 2, 2023 by E.G.Red

[ralphindevon]

57

[Bar BS3]

60.

 

[cidered abroad]

As I'm a lifelong pessimistic old sod,  54 points.

[Lanterne Rouge]

58

[robinforlife2]

52

[And Its Smith]

Extrapolate our current points across the whole season and we finish on 54 points.   Take our form over the last 5 games and apply to the rest of the season we finish on 55 points.  If we could get between 58-60 points that would mean we would achieved around 1.4 points per game from here on in, which is 67 points across a whole season.   59 points for the season from here is a reasonable expectation which would give strong hope going into next season 

[ExiledAjax]

7 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

Extrapolate our current points across the whole season and we finish on 54 points.   Take our form over the last 5 games and apply to the rest of the season we finish on 55 points.  If we could get between 58-60 points that would mean we would achieved around 1.4 points per game from here on in, which is 67 points across a whole season.   59 points for the season from here is a reasonable expectation which would give strong hope going into next season 

Quite. I'm not sure people realise the level of improvement required to get over 60 points. I admire the optimism of some on this thread, but anything in the high 50's is a very good achievement from where we are now.

[And Its Smith]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Quite. I'm not sure people realise the level of improvement required to get over 60 points. I admire the optimism of some on this thread, but anything in the high 50's is a very good achievement from where we are now.

Yep. To finish on 62 points is pretty much play off form over a whole season.  Very ambitious 

[Packman]

70 and finish in the play offs.

 

[headhunter]

63

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, And Its Smith said:

Yep. To finish on 62 points is pretty much play off form over a whole season.  Very ambitious 

It's possible. We did 1.5 PPG over games 2 - 12 of the season, but keeping that up over 18 games isn't something we've done for quite a while now. It's not probable.

Edited February 2, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[cityexile]

17 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Quite. I'm not sure people realise the level of improvement required to get over 60 points. I admire the optimism of some on this thread, but anything in the high 50's is a very good achievement from where we are now.

Well, 59 then. And 3 pens in that time. 

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, cityexile said:

Well, 59 then. And 3 pens in that time. 

If we get 3 pens then playoffs are on!

[tin]

58

[downendcity]

4 minutes ago, cityexile said:

Well, 59 then. And 3 pens in that time. 

You should have quit while you were ahead at 59 points 

Everything is you just fantasizing!

[Midred]

1 more than the bottom 3! 

[FNQ]

Unlikely to get anything from Burnley or Sheffield Utd, but no reason we cannot more than hold our own against the rest…. 65.

[Major Isewater]

1 hour ago, cidered abroad said:

As I'm a lifelong pessimistic old sod,  54 points.

Not forgetting a six point deduction for complaining about a lack of penalties. 

[Cityboy1954]

As long as its enough to keep us out bottom 3 .

[redapple]

66

[Midlands Robin]

Last season we averaged 1.19 points per game to finish on 55

This season we are currently on 1.18 points per game. That would leave us on 54 or 55 again

Our win percentage is currently down on last season (28.6 percent so far this season compared to 32.6 percent for the whole of last season).

To get to the 60 points mark we'll need to significantly improve our win percentage. That would see us score 27 points in the remaining games at 1.5 points per game. We would need a win percentage (depending on the number of draws) of about 40 percent or better. That's a strong improvement.

If we get to 60 points, we'd go into 23/24 with a great deal of optimism.

As it stands, I think we'll finish the season on around 57 points. An improvement on last year.

Interestingly, last season we were on 33 points after 28 games and 11 points off the play offs but 13 above the drop. This season we are 1 point closer to the play offs but also only 7 points above the drop. The bottom half of the table is a lot tighter. We can't afford to make too many mistakes.

[Rocking Red Cyril]

Where I would hope to see current form continue and maybe improve and the two new signings make an impact over the remaining games. Not being able to strengthen the defence does worry me a tad. My heart says 60. My head mid 50's. Looking forward to the run in anyway. COYR 

[City oz]

10 hours ago, redapple said:

66

69 is my favourite number

[RedinSpain]

58

[hertsexile]

More than we have now 

[Red-Robbo]

15 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

If we get 3 pens then playoffs are on!

 

They'll all come in the Man City game though...  

[DaveF]

57.

[Jersey Bristolian]

59

 

[BS13 Robin]

53!

[Wanderingred]

On 03/02/2023 at 03:42, cidered abroad said:

As I'm a lifelong pessimistic old sod,  54 points.

I think that’s pretty realistic. 5 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses.

[Malago]

PNE   D

Norwich    D

Wigan  W

Sunderland   D

Hull  W

Cardiff  W

Huddersfield W

Blackpool   W

Luton   L

Swansea   D

Reading  W

Stoke  L

Boro   D

Watford  L

Sheff U  L

Rotherham  W

Burnley L

QPR  D

 

Total 27 points which takes our final total to 60

[Jerseybean]

On 02/02/2023 at 19:53, And Its Smith said:

Extrapolate our current points across the whole season and we finish on 54 points.   Take our form over the last 5 games and apply to the rest of the season we finish on 55 points.  If we could get between 58-60 points that would mean we would achieved around 1.4 points per game from here on in, which is 67 points across a whole season.   59 points for the season from here is a reasonable expectation which would give strong hope going into next season 

Well played 59 it was! 

[Jerseybean]

On 02/02/2023 at 20:19, cityexile said:

Well, 59 then. And 3 pens in that time. 

The 59 bit was correct 

[Jerseybean]

On 03/02/2023 at 12:26, Jersey Bristolian said:

59

 

Well played JB

[spudski]

15 points from relegation. 

32 points from Promotion. 

Still a long way to go. 

This season was their for the taking, more so than others. 

I feel Sheff Utd must feel they've lucked out. Everything fell in place. 

For us...it didn't. 

[ExiledAjax]

On 02/02/2023 at 18:54, ExiledAjax said:

56. Assuming we improve our points per game by 10% then I land on 56.

33 + ((1.17*18)*1.1) = 56

Close.

60 was always a hard ask.

[lenred]

1 minute ago, spudski said:

15 points from relegation. 

32 points from Promotion. 

Still a long way to go. 

This season was their for the taking, more so than others. 

I feel Sheff Utd must feel they've lucked out. Everything fell in place. 

For us...it didn't. 

Wow.  What a negative post. Given the overhaul of the team and what he has had to work with I think Nige and the team have done a really superb job, especially where we were around Christmas time.  Also bringing on young players and nurturing complete gems that have and will earn us a lot of money which has been imperative given our financial position.   I’m looking forward to next season with a lot of optimism.  

[GrahamC]

8 minutes ago, spudski said:

15 points from relegation. 

32 points from Promotion. 

Still a long way to go. 

This season was their for the taking, more so than others. 

I feel Sheff Utd must feel they've lucked out. Everything fell in place. 

For us...it didn't. 

Technically we were potentially 10 points from promotion as a side made the playoffs with 69.

To get automatic promotion as a non parachute payment club is almost impossible.

Edited May 8, 2023 by GrahamC

[The Swan and Cemetery]

3 minutes ago, lenred said:

Wow.  What a negative post. Given the overhaul of the team and what he has had to work with I think Nige and the team have done a really superb job, especially where we were around Christmas time.  Also bringing on young players and nurturing complete gems that have and will earn us a lot of money which has been imperative given our financial position.   I’m looking forward to next season with a lot of optimism.  

And only 10 points from a chance of promotion vs 15 points above definite relegation. 

[Northern Red]

Also worth noting that 45 points was enough to achieve safety (Reading went down in 22nd with 44). We reached that mark on 7th March with the draw at Huddersfield.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Northern Red

[spudski]

15 minutes ago, lenred said:

Wow.  What a negative post. Given the overhaul of the team and what he has had to work with I think Nige and the team have done a really superb job, especially where we were around Christmas time.  Also bringing on young players and nurturing complete gems that have and will earn us a lot of money which has been imperative given our financial position.   I’m looking forward to next season with a lot of optimism.  

Not negative at all. It's facts. 

I think we've done fantastic this year. 

I've loved every minute of it. 

Just pointing out that if things had fallen into place and a bit of luck, we, and others could have been Sheff Utd. Apart from Burnley...there wasn't much difference with a lot of teams. Sheff Utd had the dream season imo. 

11 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Technically we were potentially 10 points from promotion as a side made the playoffs with 69.

To get automatic promotion as a non parachute payment club is almost impossible.

I agree...however imo, it's a negative in moving forward, if ' progress' long term is considered 6th. You have to aim top 2. If you aim for 6th, you'll likely fall short. Aim for top 2...you may end up in the play off lottery. 

[GrahamC]

12 minutes ago, spudski said:

 

I agree...however imo, it's a negative in moving forward, if ' progress' long term is considered 6th. You have to aim top 2. If you aim for 6th, you'll likely fall short. Aim for top 2...you may end up in the play off lottery. 

Just think it’s realistic.

Can’t remember the last time a side got automatic promotion that didn’t have parachute payments.

Aiming for 2nd is lovely but completely misguided, in my view.

[spudski]

1 minute ago, GrahamC said:

Just think it’s realistic.

Can’t remember the last time a side got automatic promotion that didn’t have parachute payments.

Aiming for 2nd is lovely but completely misguided, in my view.

Put it this way...

Blackburn finished on 69 points...the same as 6th place. They missed out on GD. 

We scored more than them, and only conceded 2 more than them. 

We lost the same amount of games. 

That's how close it is to 6th. 

Aiming for the play offs is imo the worst thing you can do. 

[Davefevs]

48 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Just think it’s realistic.

Can’t remember the last time a side got automatic promotion that didn’t have parachute payments.

Aiming for 2nd is lovely but completely misguided, in my view.

Brentford, then Leeds the season before.

[GrahamC]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Brentford, then Leeds the season before.

Brentford went up via the playoffs, didn’t they?

[ExiledAjax]

53 minutes ago, spudski said:

Put it this way...

Blackburn finished on 69 points...the same as 6th place. They missed out on GD. 

We scored more than them, and only conceded 2 more than them. 

We lost the same amount of games. 

That's how close it is to 6th. 

Aiming for the play offs is imo the worst thing you can do. 

Blackburn are a poor example and are far from a team to emulate.. They're in a completely false position this season. Thank god they didn't get into the playoffs, would have been a complete injustice.

[spudski]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Blackburn are a poor example and are far from a team to emulate.. They're in a completely false position this season. Thank god they didn't get into the playoffs, would have been a complete injustice.

That's my point. 

I'm saying we aren't far off Blackburn. 

In your own words...' far from a team to emulate'...yet they made the play offs. 

It would be seen as a good season if we had emulated. 

[bearded_red]

3 minutes ago, spudski said:

That's my point. 

I'm saying we aren't far off Blackburn. 

In your own words...' far from a team to emulate'...yet they made the play offs. 

 

No they didn’t.

[ExiledAjax]

5 minutes ago, spudski said:

That's my point. 

I'm saying we aren't far off Blackburn. 

In your own words...' far from a team to emulate'...yet they made the play offs. 

It would be seen as a good season if we had emulated. 

Incorrectly seen as a good season. It would be a lucky season that papered over cracks in the foundations. 

They finished 7th.

Edited May 8, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[spudski]

2 minutes ago, bearded_red said:

No they didn’t.

Correct..7th...same points. GD.

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Incorrectly seen as a good season. It would be a lucky season that papered over cracks in the foundations. 

They finished 7th.

Yes my error...as I pointed out I'm my original post, missed out on GD. 

Massively missing my point though.

To be considered potential promotion candidates we need to aim for top 2. 

If we had done a ' Blackburn'...it would given us a false idea of where we are at. That's my point about play off places...it gives a false bench mark. The play off place teams aren't far off us...mid table. It gives false hope points wise. 

 

[Davefevs]

32 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Brentford went up via the playoffs, didn’t they?

You’re right, sorry.  Season before, Leeds.

[Jersey Bristolian]

On 03/02/2023 at 12:26, Jersey Bristolian said:

59

 

Forgot all about this

 

[cidered abroad]

My guess is that we'll finish on 59.

[Dr Balls]

Without Reading’s 6 point deduction, Cardiff would have gone down on 49 points so only 10 points either way between relegation zone and playoffs, which really shows how tight this division is. Small margins can make a huge difference.

As for Sheffield United, a decent team with parachute payments, but agree with @spudskithat everything seemed to fall their way this season in the league. And certainly in our 2 games against them!