Pearson Out

[downendcity]

16 hours ago, Beni71 said:

Ian Gay is currently considering which side of the fence he should sit on

Both?

[downendcity]

1 hour ago, lenred said:

Certainly a possibility. We will never know of course but NP, along with Tins and Gould have done ridiculously well to turn around the beyond desperate financial situation by managing the squad ins and outs, whilst keeping the team above the red line.   Of course we are nowhere near the end of the season and anything can happen, so I won’t be celebrating staying up just yet, but hopefully we will be able to pull away and cement mid table. 
 

I’ve really enjoyed the ride so far with NP and his team and have been really really pleased with the fortitude this group - on and off the pitch - have shown, and am looking forward to the next chapters with real excitement.

We all quite rightly praise the work Tins has done in developing the crop of youngsters through the academy. Likewise Pearson is getting plaudits for what he has done ( although we are not yet completely out of the woods) .

However, perhaps Gould is the often unsung hero in all of this. He is a "proper" chief exec, who , it would seem, came in and set about firstly getting a proper grasp of the situation in which the club found itself financially - although I fancy he had a pretty good indication before he started the excercise.  I'm guessing that his next actions were not those of vanity projects ( as they would probably have been with his predecessor!) but what was right and necessary for the good of the club and he would then have been making clear to the "hierarchy"  just where we stood and the actions that needed and had  to be taken in order to avoid a problem with ffp. 

At this point Tins work at the academy, and that of Pearson as manager, saw the introduction of academy players and players outgoing, all of which has helped improve our situation, as we now know. The sale of Semenyo, another academy product, has further helped balance the books, but also enabled the acquisition of players who will improve the squad, but without upsetting the financial balance, unlike the strategy we saw in the later part of LJ and MA's time.

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, downendcity said:

We all quite rightly praise the work Tins has done in developing the crop of youngsters through the academy. Likewise Pearson is getting plaudits for what he has done ( although we are not yet completely out of the woods) .

However, perhaps Gould is the often unsung hero in all of this. He is a "proper" chief exec, who , it would seem, came in and set about firstly getting a proper grasp of the situation in which the club found itself financially - although I fancy he had a pretty good indication before he started the excercise.  I'm guessing that his next actions were not those of vanity projects ( as they would probably have been with his predecessor!) but what was right and necessary for the good of the club and he would then have been making clear to the "hierarchy"  just where we stood and the actions that needed and had  to be taken in order to avoid a problem with ffp. 

At this point Tins work at the academy, and that of Pearson as manager, saw the introduction of academy players and players outgoing, all of which has helped improve our situation, as we now know. The sale of Semenyo, another academy product, has further helped balance the books, but also enabled the acquisition of players who will improve the squad, but without upsetting the financial balance, unlike the strategy we saw in the later part of LJ and MA's time.

“Collective” - plus people willing to work to their strengths and compliment the others.

On the academy stuff, lots of unsung coaches who deserve big plaudits too.

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

For me the season so far has simply reinforced the lesson that we should not judge our success, or that of the manager, solely on results.

When results were bad in the autumn the underlying numbers and performance indicators suggested that we weren't actually that awful. Likewise right now they suggest that we aren't actually that good.

Truth is we're a competent, competitive side who with a bit of good or bad luck get wins or losses respectively. This last month we've played well but bar West Brom in the cup we've not really blown anyone away, likewise before Christmas there were only a couple of games where we really didn't turn up. We weren't relegation candidates in the autumn, and we're not promotion candidates now.

As I've said elsewhere across many posts Pearson (and his team) has undoubtedly and provably improved us over the last two years. We are so, so, so much better than we were for those 6 months under Holden. However, in my opinion Pearson won't ever get us promoted.

I agree with the bulk of this post but the last line makes me wonder.

Why not? You may well be right but he will finally have a bit of cash to play with this summer, significantly more if Scott goes.

I was worried about whether he may try to replicate the Leicester 4-4-2 at some point but he has moved with the times, using 4-3-3 as he does with 3-5-2 or similar as a fallback- a very modern Plan A and B.

[Midred]

Nige inferred yesterday that he prefers the robust "get into them" type of play though I would imagine even in his day he would have expected a degree of fairness from the officials. Has he decided now to keep his comments to the match report rather than interviews?

[mozo]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I agree with the bulk of this post but the last line makes me wonder.

Why not? You may well be right but he will finally have a bit of cash to play with this summer, significantly more if Scott goes.

I was worried about whether he may try to replicate the Leicester 4-4-2 at some point but he has moved with the times, using 4-3-3 as he does with 3-5-2 or similar as a fallback- a very modern Plan A and B.

My plan would be...

Sell Scott and give Nige £10m.

Get Vyner on a long term deal.

Let Kalas go. Let Dasilva go. 

Sign a big, strong centre back.

Sign a big, strong midfielder and a creative midfielder.

Sign a left back.

We'd then have two player competing for every position, a young squad with their best years ahead of them, a reasonable wage bill, and a bit of money to bank to offset losses.

 

[Red Moseley]

NP and his team deserve every credit for bringing through the academy players. Semenyo, Scott and Conway have had a significant impact on our performances, and now Bell is joining the fray as well. At the same time several other academy players have made their initial first team appearance(s). As a follower of the City for around 60 years I no longer attend but follow OTIB regularly and have been impressed by another aspect of NP and his team's work which perhaps does not get the credit it deserves.. I refer to the fact that there are 2 players (Vyner and Pring), and possibly a third (Wells) whose time at the Club appeared to be at and end in the third part of last season.. They either played sporadically or not at all, and there was open talk on this forum, and elsewhere, that they would be on their way in the summer. The fact that they are now 3 of the first names on the team sheet does the coaching staff immense credit

[sglosbcfc]

20 hours ago, mozo said:

I told you so threads and posts are the most annoying things on the forum. 

In some cases though, it is hoping people realise the importance of patience. By pointing out how many times reactionary fans are wrong, you hope they won't make the same mistake again. Pearson said when he took over it would take 3 years to get a team that could challenge in this division. At the time, 99% of the fans backed his appointment and accepted it would take many windows to get the squad he wanted that could challenge. He has now been in the job just over 2 years and the squad/team is shaping up nicely. 8 games undefeated, we now look very competitive. That is not to say there will be no bumps in the road, Norwich on Saturday for example will be a tough test despite what Burnley did to them yesterday. 

[mozo]

8 minutes ago, sglosbcfc said:

In some cases though, it is hoping people realise the importance of patience. By pointing out how many times reactionary fans are wrong, you hope they won't make the same mistake again. Pearson said when he took over it would take 3 years to get a team that could challenge in this division. At the time, 99% of the fans backed his appointment and accepted it would take many windows to get the squad he wanted that could challenge. He has now been in the job just over 2 years and the squad/team is shaping up nicely. 8 games undefeated, we now look very competitive. That is not to say there will be no bumps in the road, Norwich on Saturday for example will be a tough test despite what Burnley did to them yesterday. 

Totally agree with all of what you're saying. I was never one of the ones saying Nige had to go, and he's doing well given the circumstances. 

It's just some of the scoffing on this and other threads that is just as pathetic as the people with an anti-Nige agenda who will do their own scoffing when we next lose two in a row!

I'm a fool for wasting my time commenting on it though!

[ExiledAjax]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I agree with the bulk of this post but the last line makes me wonder.

Why not? You may well be right but he will finally have a bit of cash to play with this summer, significantly more if Scott goes.

I was worried about whether he may try to replicate the Leicester 4-4-2 at some point but he has moved with the times, using 4-3-3 as he does with 3-5-2 or similar as a fallback- a very modern Plan A and B.

Primarily because for all our improvement and stabilisation in the table we are still quite a way away from putting out numbers that compare to an average historical top 6 side. My theory is that if you want a hope of promotion you have to be performing at that level. Doing that allows you the potential for luck and fortune to catapult you into the top 2 or play off final.

We're not doing that in two main ways. 

1. We're averaging only 9.9 shots a game, and only 3.17 on target. Top 6 teams tend to be more like 12 and 4, and top two will often be on 15 and 5. It's a big difference and it's why we don't seem to overwhelm or dominate teams.

2. Naturally the above flows through into xG. This season we are broadly tracking our xG. By my spreadsheet (which takes 4 different sources of xG and has done me pretty solidly for 4 seasons now) we are pretty much on the points we could reasonably be expected to be on based on our xG deltas this season. We have 36 points, my sheet says 33 is par. We've scored 39, conceded 39, my numbers give 36 and 41 for those figures. So my conclusion is that right now we are about where we should be, and so we should not expect or predict any great improvement (or decline) in our points per game in the short term. Top 6 teams either put out excellent figures, or they overperform their numbers to a big degree. We're doing neither.

OK, so the counter arguments are obviously that we've got new signings, that since we've played 433 we've not lost, that we will sign more in the summer, that we've already improved hugely. 

I hear all of that and what I say is that for me it's too soon to say whether we are genuinely on an upward trend, or whether it's just luck. We've played this new formation for just a half dozen games or so, of our new signings only Cornick has had minutes and he was...ok. but, I recognise that I may be behind the curve in my opinion, and it may need adjusting in the next month or two.

There's practical considerations as well, all conjecture and guesswork but I'm not totally certain that Pearson will extend his contract past it's termination at the end of next season. Are we likely to be promoted next season? In my opinion no: therefore I don't think Pearson will take us up next season.

It's an opinion, and perhaps I should be less absolute in my posts, but I will be really, really, really pleasantly delighted and surprised if Nigel Pearson guides us to promotion.

Edited February 5, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Davefevs]

51 minutes ago, sglosbcfc said:

In some cases though, it is hoping people realise the importance of patience. By pointing out how many times reactionary fans are wrong, you hope they won't make the same mistake again. Pearson said when he took over it would take 3 years to get a team that could challenge in this division. At the time, 99% of the fans backed his appointment and accepted it would take many windows to get the squad he wanted that could challenge. He has now been in the job just over 2 years and the squad/team is shaping up nicely. 8 games undefeated, we now look very competitive. That is not to say there will be no bumps in the road, Norwich on Saturday for example will be a tough test despite what Burnley did to them yesterday. 

And that 3 years was really from summer 21, not Feb 21 when he took over on a temporary basis.  Important you use the word “challenge” too, because it wasn’t “3 years to guarantee promotion” either.

37 minutes ago, mozo said:

Totally agree with all of what you're saying. I was never one of the ones saying Nige had to go, and he's doing well given the circumstances. 

It's just some of the scoffing on this and other threads that is just as pathetic as the people with an anti-Nige agenda who will do their own scoffing when we next lose two in a row!

I'm a fool for wasting my time commenting on it though!

I actually think some are entitled to scoff a bit.  The amount of negativity v non-negativity (inc meh and positive) has been hugely outnumbered on the negative side.  As per @sglosbcfcsays, the lack of patience and sense of entitlement at times has belied any sense of realism or understanding of the mess.

And just like it was a collective mess from owners, CEO and head-coach, it is now a collective rebuild from SL, CEO, Manager (plus Tech Director).  Some won’t ever give Pearson any credit.  Some won’t even give him the benefit of doubt, even in more positive times, like the current phase.  It feels personal for those posters.  The things they moaned about in the past, e.g. BCCC (Bristol City Cosy Club) now get moans from them that the culture is too tough, claims of bullying - which is some claim with no insight!

I like Pearson, I don’t agree with every team selection, I don’t agree with everything he says or how he goes about it, but I see the change, the right change…and that eventually brings results / performance.

I might have a little scoff, ta very much

[Numero Uno]

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

And that 3 years was really from summer 21, not Feb 21 when he took over on a temporary basis.  Important you use the word “challenge” too, because it wasn’t “3 years to guarantee promotion” either.

I actually think some are entitled to scoff a bit.  The amount of negativity v non-negativity (inc meh and positive) has been hugely outnumbered on the negative side.  As per @sglosbcfcsays, the lack of patience and sense of entitlement at times has belied any sense of realism or understanding of the mess.

And just like it was a collective mess from owners, CEO and head-coach, it is now a collective rebuild from SL, CEO, Manager (plus Tech Director).  Some won’t ever give Pearson any credit.  Some won’t even give him the benefit of doubt, even in more positive times, like the current phase.  It feels personal for those posters.  The things they moaned about in the past, e.g. BCCC (Bristol City Cosy Club) now get moans from them that the culture is too tough, claims of bullying - which is some claim with no insight!

I like Pearson, I don’t agree with every team selection, I don’t agree with everything he says or how he goes about it, but I see the change, the right change…and that eventually brings results / performance.

I might have a little scoff, ta very much

We have a very small number of fans that cannot see beyond the contract given to Danny Simpson and they just won’t have Nige, end of.

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

We have a very small number of fans that cannot see beyond the contract given to Danny Simpson and they just won’t have Nige, end of.

Agree, although I think some don’t even have that as their reason, they make a view short term, and then stick to it.  It’s ok to change.  What is the problem with that?  Pride?

I can quite happily sit here and say:

- based on what I’d seen of Sam Bell until recently I thought he’d be one who fell on the side of “not making it” at Champ level, and I said if I had to bet red (make it) or black (not make it) now on a player aged 20, I’d have bet black.  I did say I’d have a side bet on “red 20”……because 20 is too early to really judgement especially when they’ve not played many minutes.

So I’m fine with revising my opinion based on 4/5 games where he’s shown stuff that he’s not even really shown in u23/u21 games.

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Davefevs

[mozo]

32 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

And that 3 years was really from summer 21, not Feb 21 when he took over on a temporary basis.  Important you use the word “challenge” too, because it wasn’t “3 years to guarantee promotion” either.

I actually think some are entitled to scoff a bit.  The amount of negativity v non-negativity (inc meh and positive) has been hugely outnumbered on the negative side.  As per @sglosbcfcsays, the lack of patience and sense of entitlement at times has belied any sense of realism or understanding of the mess.

And just like it was a collective mess from owners, CEO and head-coach, it is now a collective rebuild from SL, CEO, Manager (plus Tech Director).  Some won’t ever give Pearson any credit.  Some won’t even give him the benefit of doubt, even in more positive times, like the current phase.  It feels personal for those posters.  The things they moaned about in the past, e.g. BCCC (Bristol City Cosy Club) now get moans from them that the culture is too tough, claims of bullying - which is some claim with no insight!

I like Pearson, I don’t agree with every team selection, I don’t agree with everything he says or how he goes about it, but I see the change, the right change…and that eventually brings results / performance.

I might have a little scoff, ta very much

All I got from that was "but mum, he started it!" 

[Numero Uno]

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Agree, although I think some don’t even have that as their reason, they make a view short term, and then stick to it.  It’s ok to change.  What is the problem with that?  Pride?

I can quite happily sit here and say:

- based on what I’d seen of Sam Bell until recently I thought he’d be one who fell on the side of “not making it” at Champ level, and I said if I had to bet red (make it) or black (not make it) now on a player aged 20, I’d have bet black.  I did say I’d have a side bet on “red 20”……because 20 is too early to really judgement especially when they’ve not played many minutes.

So I’m fine with revising my opinion based on 4/5 games where he’s shown stuff that he’s not even really shown in u23/u21 games.

 

This is true. People end up wanting to be right rather than wanting what’s best……not many but some.

[ray savino]

28 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Agree, although I think some don’t even have that as their reason, they make a view short term, and then stick to it.  It’s ok to change.  What is the problem with that?  Pride?

Football support is emotional, tribal, fickle, impatient and quite often (especially supporting City at times) irrational. I’ve left the ground after games cussing almost every manager we’ve had over the years during a bad run, and only later may think I was wrong let alone admit it! 

Reality often comes somewhere in the middle. Pearson’s had some crap results since he came, not surprising given the mess we’ve been in, but nonetheless crap. Given we support a club that has promised a lot at times but delivered disappointment, it’s not surprising we as fans feel so frustrated.

What I do like about Pearson is that he has told so home truths to the club and us as supporters that we’ve got to be show less of the cosy west country club approach and develop a more driven attitude to getting success. If he ultimately doesn’t deliver the success, he will hopefully laid the groundwork for someone to do it. He’s built foundations before, knows what it takes. Although we could argue this was a long time ago now and tactics, styles may develop on the field over the years, the principles of building a driven, hungry culture that fosters collective spirit doesn’t change that much. 

[Maltshoveller]

1 hour ago, Numero Uno said:

This is true. People end up wanting to be right rather than wanting what’s best……not many but some.

A fair few on here i would say

[downendcity]

3 hours ago, Numero Uno said:

This is true. People end up wanting to be right rather than wanting what’s best……not many but some.

Only 2 rules apply in my house.

Rule 1: Mrs Downend is always right.

Rule 2: When Mrs Downend is wrong, rule 1 applies.

Edited February 5, 2023 by downendcity

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Primarily because for all our improvement and stabilisation in the table we are still quite a way away from putting out numbers that compare to an average historical top 6 side. My theory is that if you want a hope of promotion you have to be performing at that level. Doing that allows you the potential for luck and fortune to catapult you into the top 2 or play off final.

We're not doing that in two main ways. 

1. We're averaging only 9.9 shots a game, and only 3.17 on target. Top 6 teams tend to be more like 12 and 4, and top two will often be on 15 and 5. It's a big difference and it's why we don't seem to overwhelm or dominate teams.

2. Naturally the above flows through into xG. This season we are broadly tracking our xG. By my spreadsheet (which takes 4 different sources of xG and has done me pretty solidly for 4 seasons now) we are pretty much on the points we could reasonably be expected to be on based on our xG deltas this season. We have 36 points, my sheet says 33 is par. We've scored 39, conceded 39, my numbers give 36 and 41 for those figures. So my conclusion is that right now we are about where we should be, and so we should not expect or predict any great improvement (or decline) in our points per game in the short term. Top 6 teams either put out excellent figures, or they overperform their numbers to a big degree. We're doing neither.

OK, so the counter arguments are obviously that we've got new signings, that since we've played 433 we've not lost, that we will sign more in the summer, that we've already improved hugely. 

I hear all of that and what I say is that for me it's too soon to say whether we are genuinely on an upward trend, or whether it's just luck. We've played this new formation for just a half dozen games or so, of our new signings only Cornick has had minutes and he was...ok. but, I recognise that I may be behind the curve in my opinion, and it may need adjusting in the next month or two.

There's practical considerations as well, all conjecture and guesswork but I'm not totally certain that Pearson will extend his contract past it's termination at the end of next season. Are we likely to be promoted next season? In my opinion no: therefore I don't think Pearson will take us up next season.

It's an opinion, and perhaps I should be less absolute in my posts, but I will be really, really, really pleasantly delighted and surprised if Nigel Pearson guides us to promotion.

This is very fair and you've covered the counter arguments or some of them nicely.

Not next season no, stranger things have happened but I've not talking about that to that but has he not earned the opportunity to see what he can do over a 2-3 year building period once the finances resolved? I know a 3 year plan was spoken about but I'm quite happy to see him get longer as things are now- if you think he'll choose not to extend that moves the dial.

I completely agree on the data points fwiw. We arw probably hitting our level somewhat, over a season although v Sheffield United, Watford, Stoke and West Brom we actually across those 4 games had some top 6 baseline figures. Granted only one goal and one point was in fact gained but...

Sheffield United Home- Shots For 16 Shots Against 4, Hit woodwork on 2 separate occasions in addition to the 3 shots on target...but lost 1-0. 57 pct possession as well!

Watford Home- Shots For 9 Shots Against 2, drew 0-0. 53 pct possession! Drew 0-0.

Stoke Home- Shots For 14 Shots Against 6, Hit woodwork at 1-0 up in addition to the 5 Shots on Target. had 51 pct possession yet lost 2-1!

West Brom Home- Shots For 8, Shots Against 15. 51 pct possession but we rightly lost 2-0...Shots on Target was 3-4 and they hit woodwork ie their own woodwork not long after Phillips scored for them.

47 shots for, 27 again at yet 1 goal for 5 against. Of those woodwork we hit 3 times in that spell, they hit their own woodwork once yet none went in..think we had 13 shots on target yo their 10 as well as woodwork x 3 and then hitting theirs once not long after Phillips scores.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[downendcity]

10 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

This is very fair and you've covered the counter arguments or some of them nicely.

Not next season no, stranger things have happened but I've not talking about that to that but has he not earned the opportunity to see what he can do over a 2-3 year building period once the finances resolved? I know a 3 year plan was spoken about but I'm quite happy to see him get longer as things are now- if you think he'll choose not to extend that moves the dial.

I completely agree on the data points fwiw. We arw probably hitting our level somewhat, over a season although v Sheffield United, Watford, Stoke and West Brom we actually across those 4 games had some top 6 baseline figures. Granted only one goal and one point was in fact gained but...

Sheffield United Home- Shots For 16 Shots Against 4, Hit woodwork on 2 separate occasions in addition to the 3 shots on target...but lost 1-0. 57 pct possession as well!

Watford Home- Shots For 9 Shots Against 2, drew 0-0. 53 pct possession! Drew 0-0.

Stoke Home- Shots For 14 Shots Against 6, Hit woodwork at 1-0 up in addition to the 5 Shots on Target. had 51 pct possession yet lost 2-1!

West Brom Home- Shots For 8, Shots Against 15. 51 pct possession but we rightly lost 2-0...Shots on Target was 3-4 and they hit woodwork ie their own woodwork not long after Phillips scored for them.

47 shots for, 27 again at yet 1 goal for 5 against. Of those woodwork we hit 3 times in that spell, they hit their own woodwork once yet none went in..think we had 13 shots on target yo their 10 as well as woodwork x 3 and then hitting theirs once not long after Phillips scores.

Top 6 teams get penalties, therefore we've got no chance!

[Mr Popodopolous]

44 minutes ago, downendcity said:

Top 6 teams get penalties, therefore we've got no chance!

Forgot to mention those!

Yes should have had one if not two v Watford, plus potential shouts v Sheffield United at 1-0 down and I forget the one v Stoke and when it was exactly.

Birmingham with 5 and Reading with 7 is quite a mystery to me however...

Edited February 5, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[cidered abroad]

Some very interesting posts precede my thoughts and like most, I can blow hot and cold. I'm not a total pessimist and also a long way from absolute optimist.

Going back in history and past promotions, there are events that occur which are not immediately seen as the keys to opening the door,

1954 and while we had Atyeo, the arrival of Tommy Burden suddenly gave us real hope. And the same when Joe Jordan put Dave Rennie and Shelton together in midfield.

Now to the current situation with Pearson in charge. It's not a new signing or a change of tactics yet that is making so many believe that something is unfolding. We are not yet the finished article but over the rest of this season, the rebuilding of our club can be so different to what we've had for the last 25/30 years. It may be a single event like replacing Scott if he goes or something else.

I'm looking forward to finding out.

 

[johnbytheriver]

Let's just start next season in this division and take it from there!

[ExiledAjax]

12 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

47 shots for, 27 again at yet 1 goal for 5 against. Of those woodwork we hit 3 times in that spell, they hit their own woodwork once yet none went in..think we had 13 shots on target yo their 10 as well as woodwork x 3 and then hitting theirs once not long after Phillips scores.

Sure you can pick out individual matches where we've been on top in terms of the number of shots. But what this shows is that we shouldn't derive any conclusions about our future long-term prospects from single games or even from small samples of four or five matches.

You have to look at longer stretches. Really 10 games is the bare minimum, and ideally you don't start deriving conclusions until you have 20 or 30 games to take averages from. Even that is a tiny sample size in grand statistical speak.

Over that kind of span we have low mid-table numbers, and that's been the case for years now. We score goals because we take a small number of high quality shots, and have strikers that finish well. We concede goals because we allow a high number of mid-quality shots, which give us a greater number of opportunities to make individual defensive mistakes and these mistakes get punished.

This is visible over 900 minutes, but not always over 90.

Until and unless we shift this in some way, we won't get ourselves up to the top echelons of this division.

[Hxj]

19 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

We're not doing that in two main ways. 

1. We're averaging only 9.9 shots a game, and only 3.17 on target. Top 6 teams tend to be more like 12 and 4, and top two will often be on 15 and 5. It's a big difference and it's why we don't seem to overwhelm or dominate teams.

2. Naturally the above flows through into xG. This season we are broadly tracking our xG. By my spreadsheet (which takes 4 different sources of xG and has done me pretty solidly for 4 seasons now) we are pretty much on the points we could reasonably be expected to be on based on our xG deltas this season. We have 36 points, my sheet says 33 is par. We've scored 39, conceded 39, my numbers give 36 and 41 for those figures. So my conclusion is that right now we are about where we should be, and so we should not expect or predict any great improvement (or decline) in our points per game in the short term. Top 6 teams either put out excellent figures, or they overperform their numbers to a big degree. We're doing neither.

My understanding is that the performances so far this season of both Luton (4th) and Blackburn (8th) exceed their xG results by substantially more than City's.

[bcfc01]

Game is played on grass, not graphs.

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, Hxj said:

My understanding is that the performances so far this season of both Luton (4th) and Blackburn (8th) exceed their xG results by substantially more than City's.

Depends where you look. Preston are also overdelivering against xG. I've seen sites as well that say Rotherham are as well - essentially they should really be so far adrift in 24th as to be almost relegated already. Luton seem to be fairly fair, perhaps you'd expect them to be a little lower in the table, but from what I see they are not an anomaly. Burnley are the other. Yes they've been good, but xG suggests that they (and their counterpart leaders Arsenal in the PL) have a few more points than they'd perhaps be expected to.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

Game is played on grass, not graphs.

Yes agreed but graphs tend to balance out over time for this. Not always of course but put simply poor performances and decent results will in the end regress if poor performances sustained and vice versa. Most of the time anyway.

[Hxj]

45 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Yes agreed but graphs tend to balance out over time for this.

Says who?  Not being deliberately awkward, but could someone point me to an actual study that proves this?

My disdain for xG and similar stats are probably well known on here.  There are too many issues from my perspective for it to be a useful predictor.  In my view the simple truth is that some teams have better players who score more goals and better players at stopping their opponents from scoring.  xG takes no notice of who scored or how a shot was stopped.

There are plenty of possibilities for bias, conscious or unconscious.  "Oh Haaland missed that, it must have been a harder chance than it looks."

Take O'Leary for example.  If he consistently performs over and above the average keeper then City's xGA will be higher than the actual goals conceded, he saves more shots.  That isn't something which you would expect to tend to an average, it's just an example of a population measure not being an appropriate measure for an individual.

4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yes they've been good, but xG suggests that they (and their counterpart leaders Arsenal in the PL) have a few more points than they'd perhaps be expected to.

Or maybe they have significantly better players than average.  Consequently whilst it might be a 0.2 chance for the average player it will a 0.3 chance for one of theirs.  Or maybe with both clubs having lots of goal scorers that works better.

[mozo]

Surely the game is played on the grass but graphs help us understand the game?!!