Assuming he goes

[James54De]

43 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It's hard to find comparisons isn't it, I agree Bellingham well how old was he? Kinnell.  Dunno how well you compare fees and profile when different positions come into it- Maddison? Eze?

Yep. Just consider that Bellingham is only 2 months older than Scott and has captained Dortmund in the Champions League. 

[Nogbad the Bad]

5 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Can we all agree to stop commenting on this thread so it isn’t hot and I can stop worrying. 

Are you worried he'll go for 20-25m, or are you worried all the reported interest will come to nothing?

Much as we'd all like to keep him the squad is desperate for several urgent reinforcements and if selling Scott now rather than later enables us to to do that, so be it. 

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, JoeAman08 said:

You don’t start your price what you’d actually let him go for. 25m plus add ons and sell ons and negotiate from there. We need to be getting 20m up front for him imo. Then the add on and sell on. With the sell on I would not press too hard on a high %. 10-15 would be fine if 20m with add ons is met. 
 

As others have said, if KLP at Brentford is worth 16-18m up front then Scott is 20m. I  know different positions but you get the impression the opinion of Scott is higher than KLP’s was. Minimum looking for similar deal but think we should drive hard bargain

Agree, you start high and as per Monty Python “you gotta haggle”!

1 hour ago, steviestevieneville said:

I misheard then. Alex crook said , Bristol city want £20m + £5m add ons which is too rich for wolves but spurs are interested in a long term signing 

What we start to see through this and similarly with the Semenyo £12m stuff is people guessing / making it up.  It’s always round numbers, no detail of what might make up the add-ons, etc.

Its quite possible alongside a sell-on percentage, we might also have the following (some, all or none):

- international caps

- appearances, typically 20 game thresholds up to 100, but doesn’t have to be so prescribed

- relegation avoidance

- promotion

- etc

I do know that we received money for Brownhill for Burnley staying up.  For Kelly, we got appearance bonuses.  We made some decent money out of these two on top of their initial fee.

Unless someone like Kid hears specific detail, then most if this will be pure guesswork until we see any accounts and try to trace it back.

[Fordy62]

2 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

Are you worried he'll go for 20-25m, or are you worried all the reported interest will come to nothing?

Much as we'd all like to keep him the squad is desperate for several urgent reinforcements and if selling Scott now rather than later enables us to to do that, so be it. 

I know you’re right. But I also know he’s going to get better. I don’t know what I want. 

[KegCity]

56 minutes ago, Vidal said:

Bellingham at 17/18 was in my view a monster for age. Strong direct quick big he had everything.

Exactly. Dominating the championship at age 16. Absolutely unreal and that’s what it takes to get a move to somewhere like Dortmund.

Scott going to Wolves/Palace sounds about right to me.

[marmite]

5 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

I know you’re right. But I also know he’s going to get better. I don’t know what I want. 

Me neither but I just want it sorted quickly. NP said doing business early but we're approaching mid Jan already. If it takes another 2 weeks to get someone in then another month to get them team wise with us, we are looking at March ffs.

[italian dave]

44 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Can we all agree to stop commenting on this thread so it isn’t hot and I can stop worrying. 

Yeah...let's wait til it's on the OS 

[Nogbad the Bad]

7 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

I know you’re right. But I also know he’s going to get better. I don’t know what I want. 

Nige doesn't have the numbers or the experience to be sure of keeping us up at the moment and that needs to change before the end of the month.

He's done most of the dirty work in getting the wasters out and markedly reducing the wage bill with very little money to play with - that all went on LJ.

The only way the club can give him the financial support he imo deserves is to sell someone we'd all (including NP) rather keep.

Atm Scott looks to be the prize asset we're most likely to sacrifice, but it could yet be Semenyo.

Whatever, an increase in the overall strength of the squad, and therefore an increased likelihood of retaining our Championship status, is the most important thing once we assess things on Feb.1st.

 

 

[Pezo]

1 hour ago, Fordy62 said:

Can we all agree to stop commenting on this thread so it isn’t hot and I can stop worrying. 

But how else are we supposed to get to 50 pages and ultimately nothing happen?

[Curr Avon]

1 hour ago, Fordy62 said:

Can we all agree to stop commenting on this thread so it isn’t hot and I can stop worrying. 

Scott a point (sorry).

[BCFC Rich]

2 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

Can we all agree to stop commenting on this thread so it isn’t hot and I can stop worrying. 

Agreed no more posts, not even one. 

Just now, BCFC Rich said:

Agreed no more posts, not even one. 

arhhhh! Sorry! Ok just that one more post. 

[Kodjias Wrist]

1 hour ago, Pezo said:

But how else are we supposed to get to 50 pages and ultimately nothing happen?

That Nketiah saga actually made me ill. Constant minute by minute updates on here.

[SecretSam]

2 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

I know you’re right. But I also know he’s going to get better. I don’t know what I want. 

I do. I want Bristol City to remain financially viable. If we have to sell the likes of Scott to balance the books, so be it. 

[Hazelboy]

One for @Davefevs or @Mr Popodopolous I’d imagine,

if he’s sold for £20m, how much of that can we realistically spend to ‘rebuild’ as such? How much would need to be eaten up for FFP?
I know we won’t know exact figure but just a best guess, I’m assuming it will just be a tiny fraction of it available to spend!

 

[ProfitInMyPocket]

Wolves linked with signing Mario Lemina from OGC Nice for about £10m so might hinder the move for Scott possibly.

[petehinton]

8 minutes ago, ProfitInMyPocket said:

Wolves linked with signing Mario Lemina from OGC Nice for about £10m so might hinder the move for Scott possibly.

Looks like this was basically done before the Scott rumours came out, so wonder if they want both

[steviestevieneville]

The price of Any player we might be after will be inflated with these prices being touted for Scott . I suppose , agents/clubs will know any real fee involved. I still don’t see any club panicking to buy him this window though. 

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, Hazelboy said:

One for @Davefevs or @Mr Popodopolous I’d imagine,

if he’s sold for £20m, how much of that can we realistically spend to ‘rebuild’ as such? How much would need to be eaten up for FFP?
I know we won’t know exact figure but just a best guess, I’m assuming it will just be a tiny fraction of it available to spend!

 

Me and MrP will differ here.  Here’s my stab…lots of caveats though!

As it stands I think with the forecast spend for the rest of the season we are just inside FFP boundaries (with covid allowances of an unknown amount spread over the 3 impacted seasons).  So, if we did nothing in this window we’d just about be okay.  That’s my starting point.

This is where it gets a bit more complicated, or rather than complicated, you have to understand what happens to the cost of a signing when they sign and the period of their contract.

Let’s say we get £20m and assume we owe Guernsey Sweet FA.  That’s £20m transfer profit in this year’s accounts.  That means we are now £20m inside the FFP Limits for the cycle ending summer 2023.  It also means that the cycle ending next season (summer 2024) we are miles inside too.

We could go out and buy a £15m player on a 6 month deal and pay them £200k p.w for the rest of this season.  That would eat up the £20m in 6 months and leave us inside FFP still.

But what we would more sensibly do is:

• get in a few really strong loans at say £20k p.w. each / loan fee £0.5m.  Would cost us £3m.  Whilst we sit on the rest of the money until the summer, keeping our powder dry until we know for sure we are still in this division.
• buy a few players, say 3 x £3.5m on £15k p.w. On 3.5 Yr deals.  Costs of £0.375m  wages each and £0.5m each in amortisation this season.  £2.625m in total this season, but the next 3 years we’d be committed to £0.75m wages x 3 and £1m amortisation x 3…total £5.25m.  Over the 3.5 yrs those 3 would cost us circa £18m
• or bit of a mix of the above
• etc
• etc

This is why I chuckle a bit when someone says “if we sell Scott for £20m he can spend half of it” (or whatever).  It just doesn’t work like Football Manager led you to believe it did in their game 15 years ago!  It’s all about looking at the total cost of players against projected incomes and budgets over a 3-5 year plan / forecast.

I have some basic spreadsheets that attempt (poorly) to look at the player costs over a period of time.  The football club will have much more complex stuff and ability to do “what-if” scenarios.

So the real answer is - somewhere between some of it and all of it!

Hope the above helps?

[Mr Popodopolous]

15 minutes ago, petehinton said:

Looks like this was basically done before the Scott rumours came out, so wonder if they want both

They won't be pursuing their interest in January anyway if it remains at £25m IMO. Rights and wrongs aside they'll move on in this window.

[NcnsBcfc]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

They won't be pursuing their interest in January anyway if it remains at £25m IMO. Rights and wrongs aside they'll move on in this window.

It's basically £20m though isn't it, with £5m potential add ons etc.

It would be interesting if the club acknowledged that we have been in "discussions" with clubs though of course. That might lead to other interested parties coming to the fore, sooner rather than later.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

38 minutes ago, Hazelboy said:

One for @Davefevs or @Mr Popodopolous I’d imagine,

if he’s sold for £20m, how much of that can we realistically spend to ‘rebuild’ as such? How much would need to be eaten up for FFP?
I know we won’t know exact figure but just a best guess, I’m assuming it will just be a tiny fraction of it available to spend!

 

Largely aligned with Dave on this one, my big caveat and unknown is the whole Covid add-back thing. Transfer revenue I just don't see it...but only time will tell.

If it's just regular revenue losses and we disregard potential transfer stuff well I reckon maybe we are currently £12m in the red but have varied different models of allowances and where I certainly agree with Dave is that it spending say £5m now (amortisation of average length 2.5 year deal say) would add £1m in amortisation now and £2m per year moving forward. Certainly manageable plus whatever in wages.

5 minutes ago, NcnsBcfc said:

It's basically £20m though isn't it, with £5m potential add ons etc.

It would be interesting if the club acknowledged that we have been in "discussions" with clubs though of course. That might lead to other interested parties coming to the fore, sooner rather than later.

 

Ok that would make more sense, assumed it was a £25m straight fee that was being asked for?

Edited January 11, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[NcnsBcfc]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Largely aligned with Dave on this one, my big caveat and unknown is the whole Covid add-back thing. Transfer revenue I just don't see it...but only time will tell.

If it's just regular revenue losses and we disregard potential transfer stuff well I reckon maybe we are currently £12m in the red but have varied different models of allowances and  where I certainly agree with Dave is that it spending say £5m now (amortisation of average length 2.5 year deal say) would add £1m in amortisation now and £2m per year moving forward. Certainly manageable plus whatever in wages.

Ok that would make more sense, assumed it was a £25m straight fee that was being asked for?

If Wolves want a deal, I think there is one to be done. It'll just be around future considerations (£17-18 m up front with possible £10m add ons?). Who knows, but maybe we stretch the fee to make any future FFP issues less pressing (Lloyd Kelly anyone).

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, NcnsBcfc said:

It's basically £20m though isn't it, with £5m potential add ons etc.

We don’t know…like Senenyo’s £12m, I don’t think the likes of Alex Crook know the exact amount nor the maje-up of any deal…because no deal has been structured yet.

Picture this:

WW - we are interested in Alex Scott, how much are you after

BC - £25m

WW - oh, bye

i don’t believe we go in and say “£20m + £5m add-ons”.  That comes as you start to enter negotiations.

[WarksRobin]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Me and MrP will differ here.  Here’s my stab…lots of caveats though!

As it stands I think with the forecast spend for the rest of the season we are just inside FFP boundaries (with covid allowances of an unknown amount spread over the 3 impacted seasons).  So, if we did nothing in this window we’d just about be okay.  That’s my starting point.

This is where it gets a bit more complicated, or rather than complicated, you have to understand what happens to the cost of a signing when they sign and the period of their contract.

Let’s say we get £20m and assume we owe Guernsey Sweet FA.  That’s £20m transfer profit in this year’s accounts.  That means we are now £20m inside the FFP Limits for the cycle ending summer 2023.  It also means that the cycle ending next season (summer 2024) we are miles inside too.

We could go out and buy a £15m player on a 6 month deal and pay them £200k p.w for the rest of this season.  That would eat up the £20m in 6 months and leave us inside FFP still.

But what we would more sensibly do is:

• get in a few really strong loans at say £20k p.w. each / loan fee £0.5m.  Would cost us £3m.  Whilst we sit on the rest of the money until the summer, keeping our powder dry until we know for sure we are still in this division.
• buy a few players, say 3 x £3.5m on £15k p.w. On 3.5 Yr deals.  Costs of £0.375m  wages each and £0.5m each in amortisation this season.  £2.625m in total this season, but the next 3 years we’d be committed to £0.75m wages x 3 and £1m amortisation x 3…total £5.25m.  Over the 3.5 yrs those 3 would cost us circa £18m
• or bit of a mix of the above
• etc
• etc

This is why I chuckle a bit when someone says “if we sell Scott for £20m he can spend half of it” (or whatever).  It just doesn’t work like Football Manager led you to believe it did in their game 15 years ago!  It’s all about looking at the total cost of players against projected incomes and budgets over a 3-5 year plan / forecast.

I have some basic spreadsheets that attempt (poorly) to look at the player costs over a period of time.  The football club will have much more complex stuff and ability to do “what-if” scenarios.

So the real answer is - somewhere between some of it and all of it!

Hope the above helps?

I think we could spend 10% of what we receive for players this window and need to book the remaining profit. If we get it right, it puts us in a much stronger FFP position for the next couple of years.

[TBW]

5 hours ago, steviestevieneville said:

I misheard then. Alex crook said , Bristol city want £20m + £5m add ons which is too rich for wolves but spurs are interested in a long term signing 

He'll like that. He's a Spurs fan. 

[ScottishRed]

11 minutes ago, NcnsBcfc said:

It's basically £20m though isn't it, with £5m potential add ons etc.

It would be interesting if the club acknowledged that we have been in "discussions" with clubs though of course. That might lead to other interested parties coming to the fore, sooner rather than later.

 

If, as suggested yesterday on this thread, the interest from Wolves did ‘leak’ from the club then this is likely to be the reason.

I have not read every post, so apologies if mentioned previously, but nobody seems to have mentioned the players view in all of this.

Could his head have been turned in this? Will he see Woves as a good destination at this point in his career? Does he think if he goes he will get game time?

Alternatively, does he want to wait until the summer to plot his next move? Does he think Woves would be the wrong move at this point? Is he happy currently and wants to help us stay up? Is his agent aware of better opportunities that will arise in the summer?

So many imponderables and it’s not all down to the club to make the decision.

[Mr Popodopolous]

28 minutes ago, NcnsBcfc said:

If Wolves want a deal, I think there is one to be done. It'll just be around future considerations (£17-18 m up front with possible £10m add ons?). Who knows, but maybe we stretch the fee to make any future FFP issues less pressing (Lloyd Kelly anyone).

Yeah the bigger the guaranteed profit, the better from that perspective.

It is now a working assumption on my part that the Covid add-backs specifically the transfer market revenue one, have us just inside but with no room to add anyone else though I would caution that all results are being reviewed by the CFRP hut that's for another day.

Without transfer add-backs I woukd estimate our revenue losses at not exceeding £17m in the 2 Covid seasons and £2.5m last season.

Maybe £5-6m per season in FFP accounts for 2019-20 and the same I  2020-21..whereas £6-7m last season.

Tbis is my estimate based purely on what we can estimate in public domain.

-£9.5-10.5m in the combined Covid average.

-£19-20m last season.

Would mean an FFP loss not exceeding £8.5-10.5m. That again depends on the transfer add-back question I expect. Remember too the £2.5m Covid allowance cor last season is not applied to accounts this year and it wouldn't be loss minus FFP cost minus £2.5m=FFP, it's going to be loss - FFP cost=FFP.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[James54De]

56 minutes ago, TBW said:

He'll like that. He's a Spurs fan. 

Which means he’ll be aware of Spurs horrific record in buying in young players and ruining them. 

[Roger Red Hat]

55 minutes ago, ScottishRed said:

Will he see Woves as a good destination at this point in his career

I wouldn't have thought so. I'm sure there is a better team to join to progress his career/development.

[steviestevieneville]

1 hour ago, TBW said:

He'll like that. He's a Spurs fan. 

He’s a manc