It’s going to bad a interesting league next season

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, The Bard said:

A ludicrous price.  There is no way in this world they have a 20% chance of winning the league.  More like 5%.

It’s 4-1 for promotion, not champs….although Ipswich fans probably think that’s too high!

[Jimbo123]

10 hours ago, M.D said:

A good friend of mine is an Ipswich fan, He still thinks playoffs is a minimum and auto promotion is realistic.

'Bring bring bring bring'

Thats his alarm clock waking him up..

Wouldn’t disagree with a few signings for them, McKenna got them playing great football. Lots of their young players will step up with ease too.

[The Bard]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

It’s 4-1 for promotion, not champs….although Ipswich fans probably think that’s too high!

Ah.  That makes more sense.  So they're about 16/1 for the title then?

[Jimbo123]

9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Bookies must’ve taken some bets from some deluded fans.

Bookies odds don’t change for football ante post from money in the market, they’re all put up as starting price and the only way they’ll be amended is if they’re adjusted.

They’re that price as they play fantastic football, McKenna is a good coach and they have lots of good young players.

[Jimbo123]

1 minute ago, The Bard said:

Ah.  That makes more sense.  So they're about 16/1 for the title then?

20/1.

Leicester 6/1, us 40/1. 

[The Bard]

11 minutes ago, Jimbo123 said:

Bookies odds don’t change for football ante post from money in the market, they’re all put up as starting price and the only way they’ll be amended is if they’re adjusted.

They’re that price as they play fantastic football, McKenna is a good coach and they have lots of good young players.

They're that price because the bookies think they will get a decent amount of interest at that price.  They couldn't give a **** about their style of football - Luton just got promoted which just shows that the only thing that matters is how effective you are. If loads of people back them, their odds will shorten.  If there is no interest, their odds will lengthen.  

[Dr Balls]

19 minutes ago, The Bard said:

They're that price because the bookies think they will get a decent amount of interest at that price.  They couldn't give a **** about their style of football - Luton just got promoted which just shows that the only thing that matters is how effective you are. If loads of people back them, their odds will shorten.  If there is no interest, their odds will lengthen.  

And you have to remember that there are a lot of people in Suffolk who haven’t ever gone very far outside Suffolk and/or whose family tree is rather tightly tangled on itself, so being one-eyed in relation to their football outlook might be the least of their anatomical challenges!

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Jimbo123 said:

Wouldn’t disagree with a few signings for them, McKenna got them playing great football. Lots of their young players will step up with ease too.

Which ones out of interest do you think will step up with ease?

[Rob k]

15 hours ago, Percy Pig said:

Yep, Plymouth sound like they're not investing too much following promotion, Wednesday are a massive club but their team isn't that great so if they come up I don't think they'll be all that strong. 

I can see Stoke, Watford and Millwall improving significantly, I can see Birmingham, WBA, Swansea and Cardiff feeling some financial pain and struggling. 

Cov will lose Hamer and Gyokeres for sure. Will they attract sufficiently good replacements? 

I don't actually buy that the past season was "weak". Nor do I buy that the coming season will be "strong". 

I disagree, last season was a poor division and was an opportunity had we been a season further forward. I think this season will be tougher but I’m hoping for some real progress on the pitch. 

[IAmNick]

19 hours ago, M.D said:

A good friend of mine is an Ipswich fan, He still thinks playoffs is a minimum and auto promotion is realistic.

'Bring bring bring bring'

Thats his alarm clock waking him up..

I had a look at their forum earlier and someone had posted a list of the teams in the Championship for next season clearly in alphabetical order.

Two posters were then somehow arguing about Birmingham winning it and West Brom finishing bottom, so I'd take what their fans say with a pinch of salt...

[Jimbo123]

8 hours ago, The Bard said:

They're that price because the bookies think they will get a decent amount of interest at that price.  They couldn't give a **** about their style of football - Luton just got promoted which just shows that the only thing that matters is how effective you are. If loads of people back them, their odds will shorten.  If there is no interest, their odds will lengthen.  

Which they should do - they were so comfortably the best team performance wise in L1 after the turn of the year, have a look at the stats in their games.

7 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Which ones out of interest do you think will step up with ease?

Clarke, Woolfenden, Leif Davis (will be a PL left back before long), Chaplin (if I can still class him as a young player, think he's 25), Broadhead, Hirst if he resigns... off the top of my head.

If we played Ipswich at a neutral ground currently they'd be favourites with the bookies, and the bookies usually know what they're doing hence the amount of money they make.

[ashton_fan]

Assuming we strengthen our defence and replace Scotty (if necessary) I fancy our chances next season of finishing in the top 8, hopefully top 6. Having watched City over the years we have a habit of doing well against big name teams when they're having some problems, it's the little clubs with well organised teams that we struggle against and although on paper it looks a strong division because of the many big name clubs most of them have they're problems (a bit like WBA did).

Leeds have a mish-mash of a squad after a succession of managers (a bit like we did last time we were relegated), they can't score goals and have a leaky defence. Leicester will have to sell their best players as their wage bill is in the top 10 in the Prem so we'll have to wait and see how that works out. Wednesday will need to strengthen considerable to challenge near the top, Sunderland might find it more difficult in their second season, and WBA still have ownership and financial issues. Having said that I expect Southampton to be near the top, Ipswich may be a bit like Sunderland last season but are a bit of an unknown quantity.

As for us, as well as new additions our younger players will be a bit older and more experienced (like Conway last season) and the January signings can get a pre-season with us to be fully settled in. All in all, a lot to look forward to.

[Dr Balls]

10 minutes ago, Jimbo123 said:

Which they should do - they were so comfortably the best team performance wise in L1 after the turn of the year, have a look at the stats in their games.

Clarke, Woolfenden, Leif Davis (will be a PL left back before long), Chaplin (if I can still class him as a young player, think he's 25), Broadhead, Hirst if he resigns... off the top of my head.

If we played Ipswich at a neutral ground currently they'd be favourites with the bookies, and the bookies usually know what they're doing hence the amount of money they make.

I would suggest that before you get too carried away with Ipswich storming the Championship that you remember what happened to the runaway League 1 Champions and JPT winners in 2014/15, when they made the step up. They lost only 1 player to retirement and brought in a French forward who scored 20 league goals that season, but by halfway through the season were in the bottom 3 and about to sack their manager. The number of clubs who do what Sunderland and ourselves previously managed in 2007/8 of going successively from promotion from League 1 to making the top 6 in the Championship the next season is small for a reason, because it’s really difficult. I would suggest that a club needs the right style of play, a relatively experienced and successful manager and a large dollop of good luck. I have no idea if Ipswich have the first 2 and the latter is out of anyone’s hands!

[Dr Balls]

37 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

I had a look at their forum earlier and someone had posted a list of the teams in the Championship for next season clearly in alphabetical order.

Two posters were then somehow arguing about Birmingham winning it and West Brom finishing bottom, so I'd take what their fans say with a pinch of salt...

That’s what comes of being able to count all the Championship teams on your fingers and toes…

[Jimbo123]

2 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

I would suggest that before you get too carried away with Ipswich storming the Championship that you remember what happened to the runaway League 1 Champions and JPT winners in 2014/15, when they made the step up. They lost only 1 player to retirement and brought in a French forward who scored 20 league goals that season, but by halfway through the season were in the bottom 3 and about to sack their manager. The number of clubs who do what Sunderland and ourselves previously managed in 2007/8 of going successively from promotion from League 1 to making the top 6 in the Championship the next season is small for a reason, because it’s really difficult. I would suggest that a club needs the right style of play, a relatively experienced and successful manager and a large dollop of good luck. I have no idea if Ipswich have the first 2 and the latter is out of anyone’s hands!

I understand. The follow up to that L1 season really irks me, as we started the season in a weaker place than we finished it. If we'd recruited sensibly we could've most definitely carried the momentum into the following season, just as Sheffield United did under Wilder.

They have a good manager in McKenna and one thing's for sure is that if they carry on where they left off, he won't be there long.

I do hope they cock the summer window up and it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility with MA there, but I'd say currently they're primed to have a good crack at the top 10, which would be a great season first back up.

[Super]

I think it will be a tough ask to finish top half imo. This league looks a lot stronger next season and we will need a lot more squad depth, especially in midfield.

[Davefevs]

46 minutes ago, Jimbo123 said:

Which they should do - they were so comfortably the best team performance wise in L1 after the turn of the year, have a look at the stats in their games.

Clarke, Woolfenden, Leif Davis (will be a PL left back before long), Chaplin (if I can still class him as a young player, think he's 25), Broadhead, Hirst if he resigns... off the top of my head.

If we played Ipswich at a neutral ground currently they'd be favourites with the bookies, and the bookies usually know what they're doing hence the amount of money they make.

Clarke and Davis have good potential, will be interesting to see how they both do.  Woolfenden I’m less convinced about against Championship level forwards.

Chaplin was a surprise he dropped down to Lg1, a decent enough Champ player, but unlikely he’ll score as freely, he didn’t at Barnsley, even in their play-off season.

Broadhead looks a clever striker, if his hamstrings hold out, he’ll do well.

Hirst, as much as him being a willing, running, physical forward, I’m not sure he has goals in him at this level, based on Rotherham and Blackburn loans….although when Ipswich can’t play their pretty football, they’ll need someone like him as an option.

My view is that they’ve built a squad to get out of Lg1, rather than one to take them forward, but we will have to wait to see how much they do this summer.

Some fans think their current squad is good enough to mount a promotion push, and then some think they’ll be buying Adam Armstrong (or Alex Scott)!  I’d be quite happy if their ambitions are centred around the level of quality of George Hirst, because I don’t think he’ll get them anywhere near where they think.

 

On an aside looking at the bookies predictions for the season just gone, they aren’t as clever as they think!

[Jimbo123]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Clarke and Davis have good potential, will be interesting to see how they both do.  Woolfenden I’m less convinced about against Championship level forwards.

Chaplin was a surprise he dropped down to Lg1, a decent enough Champ player, but unlikely he’ll score as freely, he didn’t at Barnsley, even in their play-off season.

Broadhead looks a clever striker, if his hamstrings hold out, he’ll do well.

Hirst, as much as him being a willing, running, physical forward, I’m not sure he has goals in him at this level, based on Rotherham and Blackburn loans….although when Ipswich can’t play their pretty football, they’ll need someone like him as an option.

My view is that they’ve built a squad to get out of Lg1, rather than one to take them forward, but we will have to wait to see how much they do this summer.

Some fans think their current squad is good enough to mount a promotion push, and then some think they’ll be buying Adam Armstrong (or Alex Scott)!  I’d be quite happy if their ambitions are centred around the level of quality of George Hirst, because I don’t think he’ll get them anywhere near where they think.

 

On an aside looking at the bookies predictions for the season just gone, they aren’t as clever as they think!

Woolfenden was one we looked at to replace Webster, think he's definitely got the potential to be good at this level especially in a side that play from the back.

Chaplin most probably won't score as many again, but he's playing in a side that create an awful lot of chances so I wouldn't be surprised if he was to have much more success than he did at Barnsley.

Hirst actually came on quite strong late in the season, in a side that create a lot of chances I think he'd be fine. 

I did see the Alex Scott suggestion, just one idiot wasn't it. I've seen worse on the BCFC TIL I DIE Facebook  

As for the bookmakers, let me know if you ever come across a broke one  

[kit]

37 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Clarke and Davis have good potential, will be interesting to see how they both do.  Woolfenden I’m less convinced about against Championship level forwards.

Chaplin was a surprise he dropped down to Lg1, a decent enough Champ player, but unlikely he’ll score as freely, he didn’t at Barnsley, even in their play-off season.

Broadhead looks a clever striker, if his hamstrings hold out, he’ll do well.

Hirst, as much as him being a willing, running, physical forward, I’m not sure he has goals in him at this level, based on Rotherham and Blackburn loans….although when Ipswich can’t play their pretty football, they’ll need someone like him as an option.

My view is that they’ve built a squad to get out of Lg1, rather than one to take them forward, but we will have to wait to see how much they do this summer.

Some fans think their current squad is good enough to mount a promotion push, and then some think they’ll be buying Adam Armstrong (or Alex Scott)!  I’d be quite happy if their ambitions are centred around the level of quality of George Hirst, because I don’t think he’ll get them anywhere near where they think.

 

On an aside looking at the bookies predictions for the season just gone, they aren’t as clever as they think!

The bookmakers got 11 out of 12 of the top half correct, and the one they didn't were placed 13th.

When I look at that its only Norwich which they were really way off on predicting top and finishing 12th.

I'd say it's a stretch to say that the bookies prediction was poor or not clever for last season.

Edited May 30, 2023 by kit

[Merrick's Marvels]

52 minutes ago, Super said:

 we will need a lot more squad depth, especially in midfield.

Yes. It's not a co-incidence that our first 2 signings will be players who can fill multiple positions. 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Merrick's Marvels

[ExiledAjax]

13 minutes ago, kit said:

The bookmakers got 11 out of 12 of the top half correct, and the one they didn't were placed 13th.

When I look at that its only Norwich which they were really way off on predicting top and finishing 12th.

I'd say it's a stretch to say that the bookies prediction was poor or not clever for last season.

It's an average of 4.75 positions out. Round up to 5. Only 3 correct, 15 clubs 5 or more positions out. One of the correctly called clubs was Reading who without the points deduction would not have been correct.

Pretty loose, pretty poor really.

[The Bard]

Bookies are mostly rich because most people who bet place mug bets. Betting on the most likely outcome but at unfavourable odds.

This means they tend to offer poor odds on certain outcomes (Man Utd winning anything for example) but that means that the less favoured outcomes (Luton 40/1) are overpriced. 

What strikes me about next years odds is a direct comparison between us and Stoke. Almost identical in terms of crowds , we finished above them in the league yet we're 40/1 & they're 20/1.

Can only be explained by perception.

[Jimbo123]

5 minutes ago, The Bard said:

Bookies are mostly rich because most people who bet place mug bets. Betting on the most likely outcome but at unfavourable odds.

This means they tend to offer poor odds on certain outcomes (Man Utd winning anything for example) but that means that the less favoured outcomes (Luton 40/1) are overpriced. 

What strikes me about next years odds is a direct comparison between us and Stoke. Almost identical in terms of crowds , we finished above them in the league yet we're 40/1 & they're 20/1.

Can only be explained by perception.

I work for a bookmaker in a department that do odd calculation (admittedly not for football), but it's all done now through football for underlying data.

I don't have an xG table, but I would bet you that Stoke finished higher up in it than us. Or if they didn't, the period from where Alex Neil took over, they'd have been much better performance wise than us.

Stoke are a better performing side than us, even if their results don't necessarily show it. That's why they're lower odds.

[ExiledAjax]

13 minutes ago, Jimbo123 said:

I work for a bookmaker in a department that do odd calculation (admittedly not for football), but it's all done now through football for underlying data.

I don't have an xG table, but I would bet you that Stoke finished higher up in it than us. Or if they didn't, the period from where Alex Neil took over, they'd have been much better performance wise than us.

Stoke are a better performing side than us, even if their results don't necessarily show it. That's why they're lower odds.

Had a quick look at fbref and infogol. Stoke are slightly above us in xG stats. Not wildly so, but marginally better. That's whole season figures.

We finished pretty much bob on where xG reckoned we would have. We basically matched our xG and xGA, and our expected points is about on par in most tables. We were a mid-table side and we finished mid-table.

Most metrics I see suggest Stoke were probably a 7th - 10th placed side. So yeh they will have shorter odds than us. 

Edit: I have no idea how crowd numbers are supposed to fit into odds or into expected finishing positions.

Edited May 30, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

28 minutes ago, The Bard said:

What strikes me about next years odds is a direct comparison between us and Stoke. Almost identical in terms of crowds , we finished above them in the league yet we're 40/1 & they're 20/1.

Can only be explained by perception.

Stoke have also intimated they will be spending or going big, that will help.

Edited May 30, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Gol]

11 hours ago, Jimbo123 said:

Bookies odds don’t change for football ante post from money in the market, they’re all put up as starting price and the only way they’ll be amended is if they’re adjusted.

They’re that price as they play fantastic football, McKenna is a good coach and they have lots of good young players.

My work has an office in Ipswich so I keep an eye on them for that reason. McKenna's a good coach granted but lots of young players? from tranfermarkt they had the third oldest average age in league 1 (27, ours is 25). Leif Davies, Wolfenden, Clarke and Broadhead would fall under that bracket and Walton should be a decent keeper. at this level  Chaplin,  Ladapo, Evans and Luongo have been average at best in the champ and are late 20's, early 30s. Morsey was decent but 32 this year. Burns, Donacien, Burgess, Harness do not have a lot of Champ experience and are late 20s. Hirst was a loan.

 

They are currently  reminding me a bit  of us in the summer for 15/16, done well in league one and think that will automatically transcribe into success at a higher level.  not realizing how much the champ has moved on in that time.  knlowing Ashton though I imagine it will be a busy summer for them anyway! 

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Clarke and Davis have good potential, will be interesting to see how they both do.  Woolfenden I’m less convinced about against Championship level forwards.

Chaplin was a surprise he dropped down to Lg1, a decent enough Champ player, but unlikely he’ll score as freely, he didn’t at Barnsley, even in their play-off season.

Broadhead looks a clever striker, if his hamstrings hold out, he’ll do well.

Hirst, as much as him being a willing, running, physical forward, I’m not sure he has goals in him at this level, based on Rotherham and Blackburn loans….although when Ipswich can’t play their pretty football, they’ll need someone like him as an option.

My view is that they’ve built a squad to get out of Lg1, rather than one to take them forward, but we will have to wait to see how much they do this summer.

Some fans think their current squad is good enough to mount a promotion push, and then some think they’ll be buying Adam Armstrong (or Alex Scott)!  I’d be quite happy if their ambitions are centred around the level of quality of George Hirst, because I don’t think he’ll get them anywhere near where they think.

 

On an aside looking at the bookies predictions for the season just gone, they aren’t as clever as they think!

agree with most though with  Wolfenden when I hasve seen him has impressed me think he could do well at this level.

[Jimbo123]

6 minutes ago, Gol said:

My work has an office in Ipswich so I keep an eye on them for that reason. McKenna's a good coach granted but lots of young players? from tranfermarkt they had the third oldest average age in league 1 (27, ours is 25). Leif Davies, Wolfenden, Clarke and Broadhead would fall under that bracket and Walton should be a decent keeper. at this level  Chaplin,  Ladapo, Evans and Luongo have been average at best in the champ and are late 20's, early 30s. Morsey was decent but 32 this year. Burns, Donacien, Burgess, Harness do not have a lot of Champ experience and are late 20s. Hirst was a loan.

 

They are currently  reminding me a bit  of us in the summer for 15/16, done well in league one and think that will automatically transcribe into success at a higher level.  not realizing how much the champ has moved on in that time.  knlowing Ashton though I imagine it will be a busy summer for them anyway! 

agree with most though with  Wolfenden when I hasve seen him has impressed me think he could do well at this level.

I listed the young players I thought would do well, Chaplin's 26 so still probably not even reached his prime.

Sheffield Utd's team when they came up was full of players like Basham, Coutts, Fleck, Duffy, Leon Clarke etc that'd hardly ripped the Championship up before, the difference between them and us was they went out and recruited sensibly by strengthening the side with players like Egan, Baldock, Stevens etc who didn't cost a fortune but all improved the side, fit their way of playing and carried that on.

We tried that with Maguire, Gray, Gayle etc but for one reason or another those didn't come off.

I think they'll surprise a few next season, Ipswich. I hope they don't, as I'd love for it to go tits up for Mark Ashton, but I think they will.

[Davefevs]

55 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's an average of 4.75 positions out. Round up to 5. Only 3 correct, 15 clubs 5 or more positions out. One of the correctly called clubs was Reading who without the points deduction would not have been correct.

Pretty loose, pretty poor really.

Here was my pre-season 1-24

111 places out in total (bookies 114).  Sunderland I got massively wrong!

Lg1 FWIW.

 

96 places out.  MK Dons….oops!

[Fuber]

11 hours ago, Jimbo123 said:

Wouldn’t disagree with a few signings for them, McKenna got them playing great football. Lots of their young players will step up with ease too.

They actually really don't have a young squad to be honest. Harry Clarke is 22 and basically their youngest first teamer from last season. Average age of their midfield is around 28-29.

To contrast that, we have 6 players younger than that (Mehmeti, Bell, Conway, Scott, Taylor-Clarke, Benarous) we can expect play some first team minutes in the Championship this coming season.

Only balanced by the fact we have King, James, Weimann, and Wells in the squad.

[Nogbad the Bad]

14 hours ago, Super said:

Far more interesting? I know which league I'd rather be in.

Give us a clue?

Depends what you think of as interesting. Unless we got the signings just right after promotion we'd be struggling all season, take some horrendous beatings, and almost certainly be relegated.

Life for newcomers in the top division is unrecognisable from our last promotion in 75-76 when we played our first game at Arsenal with no new signings at all, and won of course, but still only stayed up by the skin of our teeth.

Although there were the occasional highs much of it wasn't particularly interesting either - I remember home games v the likes of Leicester, QPR, Sunderland, Stoke, Middlesbro' etc that were pretty drab affairs with not much bigger crowds and no more atmosphere than Div.2 .

Entertainment factor too. If we go up we'll likely score 70+ goals, we could probably expect to see less than half of that in the top league (38 goals in 42 games in 76-77)

I should make it clear I'm only interested in City, I'm not that interested in watching the opposition, and I suspect if we do go up a lot of the crowd will be there for the occasion, the day out, and to see ( and possibly even support) the opposition.