Jump to content
IGNORED

Season Predictions 2023-24


EFL View

Recommended Posts

Hi

I’m an Ipswich Town fan who writes a blog about the EFL. I’ve written a predictions/preview article ahead of the Championship season. It’s quite long winded so I’ve split it into two parts.

What are your expectations ahead of the season? So far I think the spending has been very sensible, adding a small number of upgrades to strengthen in different positions and lower the average age of the squad, rather than spending silly money on a complete overhaul, assuming that £20m+ will be coming in for Scott later in the window. It'll be a big jump from 14th to the playoffs but I definitely think you'll be higher than last year. 

Obviously predictions always bring disagreement but I hope you like what I've written anyway. It was posted on Wednesday so a couple of things will be a little out of date. 

Cheers

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com)

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Robbored said:

These types of pre season predictions are commonplace throughout the football industry. I doubt if any serious fan of any club takes them seriously.

There simply column fillers.

If you can’t think of anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all :)

  • Like 9
  • Haha 2
  • Hmmm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Robbored said:

These types of pre season predictions are commonplace throughout the football industry. I doubt if any serious fan of any club takes them seriously.

There simply column fillers.

Pretty audacious to write this and claim something else is simply a "filler".

@EFL View thorough. Put a lot of effort into that haven't you. I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true. Still, very kind of you to put us in the top ten.

Hope Ashton doesn't **** your finances up.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although I think Leicester will win the league, I think 5 of the top 6 are over rated, but then you look at the teams in the bottom 12 and it's difficult to make a case for any of them to challenge higher up, but you never know in the Championship.

The one team I would totally disagree with is Birmingham, if they make it anywhere near the top 12 I will be amazed.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

 I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true.

Which suggests to me that people just copy each other without bothering to find out the facts. Though it remains a trivial matter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, chinapig said:

Which suggests to me that people just copy each other without bothering to find out the facts. Though it remains a trivial matter.

Spot on China.
 

Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EFL View said:

Hi

I’m an Ipswich Town fan who writes a blog about the EFL. I’ve written a predictions/preview article ahead of the Championship season. It’s quite long winded so I’ve split it into two parts.

What are your expectations ahead of the season? So far I think the spending has been very sensible, adding a small number of upgrades to strengthen in different positions and lower the average age of the squad, rather than spending silly money on a complete overhaul, assuming that £20m+ will be coming in for Scott later in the window. It'll be a big jump from 14th to the playoffs but I definitely think you'll be higher than last year. 

Obviously predictions always bring disagreement but I hope you like what I've written anyway. It was posted on Wednesday so a couple of things will be a little out of date. 

Cheers

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com)

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com)

Pretty good piece, until the final paragraph. The fact that Pearson has managed to keep us “ticking over” is testament to him, not a minus in my book. He’s had a lot to deal with following on from, well, you know the rest, or should do. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Spot on China.
 

Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them.

No shit 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, glynriley said:

Pretty good piece, until the final paragraph. The fact that Pearson has managed to keep us “ticking over” is testament to him, not a minus in my book. He’s had a lot to deal with following on from, well, you know the rest, or should do. 

Agreed.

The last time we tried to cut costs while remaining afloat and the FFP issue was less acute then we steadily declined, before finishing bottom. By a distance!

On top of that, NP has blooded lots of young players and has been tactically flexible.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Spot on China.
 

Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them.

I think you overstate the case and maybe I did. @EFL Viewhas clearly put a lot of effort in so it's not just guesswork. I can't even be assed to put in the effort after all!

But it's very hard to do a comprehensive analysis of 24 clubs and you can easily fall victim to received wisdom that isn't supported by evidence. But if it's well motivated, as in this case, no problem. Even respected professional journalists do it.

Wage budget tends to be the best predictor of finishing position but even that is far from certain.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, Robbored said:

Spot on China.
 

Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them.

in which case just scroll on by and don’t post.  You really are being a complete nause this summer, with your attention seeking posts.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Flames 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

 

in which case just scroll on by and don’t post.  You really are being a complete nause this summer, with your attention seeking posts.

This a forum Dave - place to express an opinion. Any poster who finds my contributions ‘nauseous’ can easily put me on ignore.

You know how to do it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Robbored said:

This a forum Dave - place to express an opinion. Any poster who finds my contributions ‘nauseous’ can easily put me on ignore.

You know how to do it.

You don't have any opinions. Posting on a thread to say how much you ignore the subject matter of the thread is not an opinion. No one gives a ****. Bore off, as they say. 

  • Like 9
  • Haha 2
  • Flames 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Robbored said:

Spot on China.
 

Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them.

How so? Surely it is an educated guess rather than complete guesswork. I am assuming you haven't "completely guessed" anywhere on this forum whatsoever about the coming season for us then? You don't think we will do ok, really well, relegated, bottom half, mid table, top half, playoffs?  

If it is all complete guesswork, do you fancy a couple of bets with me? Let's see who finishes highest, I'll guess for myself and have guessed Leicester and you can have QPR, I'll also have a complete guess at Man City and you can have Bournemouth. Let's say a grand on each and loser pays it to charity of their choice? I mean it's only guesswork isn't it.

  • Like 1
  • Flames 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, TheReds said:

How so? Surely it is an educated guess rather than complete guesswork. I am assuming you haven't "completely guessed" anywhere on this forum whatsoever about the coming season for us then? You don't think we will do ok, really well, relegated, bottom half, mid table, top half, playoffs?  

If it is all complete guesswork, do you fancy a couple of bets with me? Let's see who finishes highest, I'll guess for myself and have guessed Leicester and you can have QPR, I'll also have a complete guess at Man City and you can have Bournemouth. Let's say a grand on each and loser pays it to charity of their choice? I mean it's only guesswork isn't it.

Yet again my original comment has been misunderstood.

For anyone to predict where a particular club will finish regardless of which league there is an extremely tall order - I’d say  impossible.
 

Any of us can make an educated guess, particularly with the Championship where each club will finish using basic common sense. Obviously the relegated clubs will have an advantage over everyone else but that doesn’t guarantee anything.

As ever I’m optimistic about the coming season - just as am every season - however after 2:5 years of Nige rebuilding I’m ever more optimistic than in previous years and am hoping for a top 6 finish and possibly automatic.

Btw - that’s not a prediction just wishful thinking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Pretty audacious to write this and claim something else is simply a "filler".

@EFL View thorough. Put a lot of effort into that haven't you. I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true. Still, very kind of you to put us in the top ten.

Hope Ashton doesn't **** your finances up.

Thanks. Perhaps overreliance was the wrong word to use, and I don't think the senior players are past it, I was more trying to highlight that there's been some good succession planning. 

Thought the Ashton issue might pop up! So far things his influence has been positive, as when he came in we were in such dire need of a football person around the club and some drive to get things moving forward following the lack of direction of the Marcus Evans era. Obviously we've incurred some pretty big losses by League One standards along the way and I'm aware that his popularity eventually fell off a cliff with Bristol City though. At this stage it's so far so good, but getting a team with our budget out of League One isn't exactly an outstanding achievement so the real assessment of his performance will come in the next couple of years. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, glynriley said:

Pretty good piece, until the final paragraph. The fact that Pearson has managed to keep us “ticking over” is testament to him, not a minus in my book. He’s had a lot to deal with following on from, well, you know the rest, or should do. 

Cheers. I think the job he's done has been a good one and it's definitely a positive that he's kept things stable, I was only highlighting that he often hasn't been able to do that during his career. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Yet again my original comment has been misunderstood.

For anyone to predict where a particular club will finish regardless of which league there is an extremely tall order - I’d say  impossible.
 

Any of us can make an educated guess, particularly with the Championship where each club will finish using basic common sense. Obviously the relegated clubs will have an advantage over everyone else but that doesn’t guarantee anything.

As ever I’m optimistic about the coming season - just as am every season - however after 2:5 years of Nige rebuilding I’m ever more optimistic than in previous years and am hoping for a top 6 finish and possibly automatic.

Btw - that’s not a prediction just wishful thinking.

You said making predictions was "complete guesswork". You are now saying a hell of a lot of stuff that contradicts your post.

You are now saying anyone can make an educated guess with some common sense, you are also saying some clubs will have an advantage and it doesn't guarantee anything. Where has anyone said the relegated clubs (or any other club) are guaranteed to finish top, middle or bottom? Some people do their homework and take a lot of things into consideration and form an opinion, and then simply make an educated guess of where they would finish, there are no guarantees, there are no tried and trusted formulas, just people with a view on the teams/clubs and say where they thing they will finish. 

If you really are against someone having an opinion about what positions they think teams will finish, then just don't bother to read or comment on it. Just take your educated thoughts and think to yourself "this isn't for me, I'll ignore that thread/post". A very simple and easy thing to do, and it will stop you getting any grief in the replies too, not that you would just say something for a reaction in the first place....
 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true.

But if you look at games played, which if you research lots of Clubs could be one easy way, then you could make a case for it.  Naismith involved in 30 games, James 30, King 31 , Weimann 37, Martin 19, Klose 12 thats a lot of games (159) .
Now where the research should have gone to, is why . Then it shows most of those games were due to injuries and lack of options. They have obviously done some research, but unless you really dig you wont get the whole picture, and TBF I doubt many will be willing. There were over 100 games played by teenagers last year , but if you have a cursory look there were 5 over 30s involved in the last game. 
There is a limit to how deep they will dive into their research, who in reality will research the entire EFL.
I quite like looking at them, I'm pleased if they think we will do well, but doubt those that have us to struggle. 
FWIW , I agree with you. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, EFL View said:

Interesting. Who are your top six? 

Leicester, Southampton, Boro, Stoke, Leeds, Bristol City. City fan I am but this season is the third for NP and he had built this team. The younger boys one year older, good signings in defence and Knight in midfield. Defence stronger and we have lots of players that can score. Starting eleven not easy to choice for NP, many Good players.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Garland-sweden said:

Leicester, Southampton, Boro, Stoke, Leeds, Bristol City. City fan I am but this season is the third for NP and he had built this team. The younger boys one year older, good signings in defence and Knight in midfield. Defence stronger and we have lots of players that can score. Starting eleven not easy to choice for NP, many Good players.

Don’t see Stoke getting top half.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Bryans Left Peg said:

Don’t see Stoke getting top half.

I don't either. I think they've signed something like 10 players? Very rarely in football does signing that amount of players yield instant results. 

We've now got a settled squad which we've added to intelligently. The players here have helped create the culture we now have. They've set the standards themselves. By and large the whole squad had the training camp away together in Austria and have had a good pre season together. The cohesion within the team is clear to see. 

You don't get all that instantly when you sign 10 players at once. It takes a team a while to gel and its why I think the likes of Stoke and Coventry will be lucky to get out of the bottom half.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most predictions I've seen has us around 18th which I find quite bizarre. We had Andy King playing CB last season and full backs playing centre back, had some big injuries and yet we finished 14th. 

Yet despite us signing players which gives us depth, people think we'll do worse? Baffled. 

I'd go as far as saying had we of had Baker, Kalas, Conway and Naismith available for the majority of the season, we'd have been knocking on the door of the play offs. 

Edited by W-S-M Seagull
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, pl00peh91 said:

Not the Top 20 podcast have us finishing 10th this year, which is pretty decent I think 

Some interesting opinions from NTT20 I thought. 

I broadly agreed with their bottom half. Not sure I'd have QPR rock bottom but they are absolutely in trouble and will be down in that bottom 6. I'd also possible swap Rotherham and Cardiff and have Cardiff going down, I think the turmoil off the pitch will finally tell and they'll get relegated.

Mid-table again fine. I'd probably have Coventry in the top 6, and we're an interesting pick for 10th. My view is it's the right prediction but that our ultimate finish is going to be very dependent on luck and injuries. I'd say anything between 6th and 14th is possible for us as we've still got some exposure to depth issues - for example if we sell Scott and get one injury then our centre midfield suddenly looks thin. I don't know, maybe it's years of conditioning but I just can't bring myself to put us above 8th.

Top 6 I'm sorry but I can't put Ipswich 3rd like NTT20 did. They're reasoning was basically that they're on a big upper and will come flying out of the traps. Awesome lads, enjoy 3rd place in September but wait until you have to slog through the winter and your huge squad is disgruntled to the core. I predict Ipswich are this season's faders. Start well, fall away, finish about 9th.

I do agree on Leicester though. I'm close to some fans and staff there and it's either going to be a beautiful 100+ point dream of a season, or Coady, Winks et al are going to prove themselves past it and they'll struggle to make Enzoball work. I think 3rd/4th is the right call.

Top 2 I've no qualms with either. Both will be strong.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Some interesting opinions from NTT20 I thought. 

I broadly agreed with their bottom half. Not sure I'd have QPR rock bottom but they are absolutely in trouble and will be down in that bottom 6. I'd also possible swap Rotherham and Cardiff and have Cardiff going down, I think the turmoil off the pitch will finally tell and they'll get relegated.

Mid-table again fine. I'd probably have Coventry in the top 6, and we're an interesting pick for 10th. My view is it's the right prediction but that our ultimate finish is going to be very dependent on luck and injuries. I'd say anything between 6th and 14th is possible for us as we've still got some exposure to depth issues - for example if we sell Scott and get one injury then our centre midfield suddenly looks thin. I don't know, maybe it's years of conditioning but I just can't bring myself to put us above 8th.

Top 6 I'm sorry but I can't put Ipswich 3rd like NTT20 did. They're reasoning was basically that they're on a big upper and will come flying out of the traps. Awesome lads, enjoy 3rd place in September but wait until you have to slog through the winter and your huge squad is disgruntled to the core. I predict Ipswich are this season's faders. Start well, fall away, finish about 9th.

I do agree on Leicester though. I'm close to some fans and staff there and it's either going to be a beautiful 100+ point dream of a season, or Coady, Winks et al are going to prove themselves past it and they'll struggle to make Enzoball work. I think 3rd/4th is the right call.

Top 2 I've no qualms with either. Both will be strong.

There is a view amongst many of these pundits (and I massively rate the NTT20 guys) and that is they are a sucker for a young coach that play good football.  Martin, Manning…now McKenna.

Take aside the Ashton stuff, do we really see a forward line (inc wide forwards) of Hirst / Ladapo / Chaplin / Broadhead (injured again), Aluko, etc, backed up by a midfield of Morsy, Luongo, Evans, Jack Taylor bring good enough for 3rd?  I don’t - it’s not Jack Clarke, Ellis Simms, Diallo, etc like Sunderland (minus Stewart), is it?

And we e not mentioned their defence, that has a Burgess and Woolfenden at the heart of it.  Walton in goal is good.  But they should’ve strengthened the CB.  Leif Davis and Harry Clarke have pedigree from their PL clubs but unknown quantities at this level, backed up by Greg Leigh, Donacien and Wes Burns.

I might be totally wrong, but their fans are thinking Morsy and Luongo and gonna run midfields.  Did they do that in their pomp with better players around them?  Chaplin, ditto.

Mid-table best for me, more likely a wake-up call, bottom third, especially when they can’t get their best eleven out.  They didn’t even walk the league, they finished behind Plymouth.

  • Like 6
  • Flames 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

There is a view amongst many of these pundits (and I massively rate the NTT20 guys) and that is they are a sucker for a young coach that play good football.  Martin, Manning…now McKenna.

Take aside the Ashton stuff, do we really see a forward line (inc wide forwards) of Hirst / Ladapo / Chaplin / Broadhead (injured again), Aluko, etc, backed up by a midfield of Morsy, Luongo, Evans, Jack Taylor bring good enough for 3rd?  I don’t - it’s not Jack Clarke, Ellis Simms, Diallo, etc like Sunderland (minus Stewart), is it?

And we e not mentioned their defence, that has a Burgess and Woolfenden at the heart of it.  Walton in goal is good.  But they should’ve strengthened the CB.  Leif Davis and Harry Clarke have pedigree from their PL clubs but unknown quantities at this level, backed up by Greg Leigh, Donacien and Wes Burns.

I might be totally wrong, but their fans are thinking Morsy and Luongo and gonna run midfields.  Did they do that in their pomp with better players around them?  Chaplin, ditto.

Mid-table best for me, more likely a wake-up call, bottom third, especially when they can’t get their best eleven out.  They didn’t even walk the league, they finished behind Plymouth.

I agree. I think the other wildcard is that these young managers who play nice football - they're on the radar of the big boys. We get to sacking season in late October and a bigger club needs a new manager...well we saw with Jones and Beale last season that there's a vulnerability there. 

McKenna may well start well with a side with nothing to lose, but if they're top 6 when West Ham need a replacement for a sacked Moyes...don't discount that threat.

As I say, I can accept Ipswich starting well, but think they'll not have the staying power one the big boys turn it on in 2024.

Did you think anything of the Coventry chat? New owners and a fair bit of churn but Simms is a top signing and Lateabuediare (sp) and Dasilva are solid and I think Thomas is a great pick up. Consistent with a top manager...I fancy them to go play offs again.

The other one that people seem to be rating is Birmingham. So much churn, so much uncertainty, a new manager without much track record, still issues with the stadium even if new owners are in. Not sure I see them much above 16th it so.

Edited by ExiledAjax
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I agree. I think the other wildcard is that these young managers who play nice football - they're on the radar of the big boys. We get to sacking season in late October and a bigger club needs a new manager...well we saw with Jones and Beale last season that there's a vulnerability there. 

McKenna may well start well with a side with nothing to lose, but if they're top 6 when West Ham need a replacement for a sacked Moyes...don't discount that threat.

As I say, I can accept Ipswich starting well, but think they'll not have the staying power one the big boys turn it on in 2024.

Did you think anything of the Coventry chat? New owners and a fair bit of churn but Simms is a top signing and Lateabuediare (sp) and Dasilva are solid and I think Thomas is a great pick up. Consistent with a top manager...I fancy them to go play offs again.

The other one that people seem to be rating is Birmingham. So much churn, so much uncertainty, a new manager without much track record, still issues with the stadium even if new owners are in. Not sure I see them much above 16th it so.

I haven’t listened yet

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

Did you think anything of the Coventry chat? New owners and a fair bit of churn but Simms is a top signing and Lateabuediare (sp) and Dasilva are solid and I think Thomas is a great pick up. Consistent with a top manager...I fancy them to go play offs again.

Coventry have lost Gyokeres and about to lose Hamer. Without them last season they'd have been down near the bottom I think. 

Last season they found a way to win after a difficult start. Momentum took them a long way. 

I see a lot of Coventry fans predicting top 2/play offs and a lot of people have them down as getting in the play offs. 

Very high turnover of players. 8+ signings so far and Robins saying he wants at least 3 more. They've nit had the greatest of pre seasons and Robins said the other day they are not ready for the new season. 

Very very rarely in football does signing 10+ players work out. They've not had a pre season together so have not had a chance to build that team spirit that took them so far last season. 

Simms is decent but he wont win Coventry matches by himself like Gyokeres did. Lati and JD were not really good enough for Swansea and us. Didn't Thomas have a terrible time down the road? The foreign guys they've signed look decent but the Championship is a tough league. 

With a possible play off final hang over plus huge expectations from 18k season ticket holders I just can't see them repeating last season at all. They have a tough start so they may be under a lot of pressure from their expectant fanbase quite early on. 

I can actually see them really struggling. There are a lot of similarities with us and when we got to the final. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 30/07/2023 at 08:56, EFL View said:

Hi

I’m an Ipswich Town fan who writes a blog about the EFL. I’ve written a predictions/preview article ahead of the Championship season. It’s quite long winded so I’ve split it into two parts.

What are your expectations ahead of the season?

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com)

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com)

I think your prediction for us is pretty fair - I have us down to finish between 7th-12th.

My main disagreements with your predictions would be:

  • Hull to finish significantly lower
  • Blackburn to finish a bit lower
  • Watford to finish a bit higher

Interesting to see how Ipswich do. Many people are tipping them for top 6, which looks a bit optimistic to me. Good luck for this season.

11 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

From my own conversations with fans of other clubs most of them vastly under estimate what a job Pearson has done. 

I think because it's Nigel Pearson, other fans expect us to walk the league under him.

Agree that Pearson's work is underappreciated by many neutrals (and even many of our own fans!)

I don't think many people appreciate just how much of a sh*tshow Pearson inherited.

The fact Pearson isn't very 'fashionable' doesn't help either. As @Davefevs says, fans and pundits both take a kinder view of younger managers who set their teams up to complete 1000 passes every week.

6 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Most predictions I've seen has us around 18th which I find quite bizarre.

Yepp, maybe I'm being naive here, but I have no idea on what basis people could predict us to finish in the bottom third.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Supersonic Robin said:

I think your prediction for us is pretty fair - I have us down to finish between 7th-12th.

My main disagreements with your predictions would be:

  • Hull to finish significantly lower
  • Blackburn to finish a bit lower
  • Watford to finish a bit higher

Interesting to see how Ipswich do. Many people are tipping them for top 6, which looks a bit optimistic to me. Good luck for this season.

Agree that Pearson's work is underappreciated by many neutrals (and even many of our own fans!)

I don't think many people appreciate just how much of a sh*tshow Pearson inherited.

The fact Pearson isn't very 'fashionable' doesn't help either. As @Davefevs says, fans and pundits both take a kinder view of younger managers who set their teams up to complete 1000 passes every week.

Yepp, maybe I'm being naive here, but I have no idea on what basis people could predict us to finish in the bottom third.

I'm not sure many other managers would have kept us in this division, let alone rebuilt the club and put some solid foundations in place with next to no money. 

It makes me laugh when people say Pearson is out of touch with modern football tactics. At every club he's been at he's adapted and used a different system. I think the way we are going to play this season is going to shock a lot of people! 

If someone can give me a logical reason as to why we'll finish below where we finished last season then fair enough but no one has yet been able to do that. I find that our fanbase is generally quite realistic about where we will finish every season and it's not too far wrong. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Coventry have lost Gyokeres and about to lose Hamer.

Big losses for sure but Hamer's not gone yet, though I accept that Robins' recent remarks show he's almost certain to leave by the end of August. 

I mentioned the churn, but it's player churn under a stable management team and with most of their off-field issues sorted under the new ownership. So it's stable churn rather than unchecked changes.

Can you truly reconcile a play off final hangover with a high churn of players? If many of those players have left then isn't it more of a fresh start but under a management team who have done it once and can leverage that experience? Maybe you can spin it either way.

On the bit below, I think it's a Simms who's different to last season, and even last season he got 7 in 1,100 minutes for Sunderland, plus 11 PL appearances once recalled. I watched him way back in the Sunderland game a year ago and he was very good against us. I think he'll be a force. The others, time will tell but we've seen plenty of players leave clubs with a shrug and then have a great season elsewhere, I'd not write those guys off based on past performance.

34 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Simms is decent but he wont win Coventry matches by himself like Gyokeres did. Lati and JD were not really good enough for Swansea and us. Didn't Thomas have a terrible time down the road? The foreign guys they've signed look decent but the Championship is a tough league. 

34 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Last season they found a way to win after a difficult start. Momentum took them a long way. 

I guess ultimately I'm saying that lightening could strike twice.

I think Coventry are one that are hard to place so absolutely you could be correct and me wrong, but I think there's enough there to put them higher up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Supersonic Robin said:

I think your prediction for us is pretty fair - I have us down to finish between 7th-12th.

My main disagreements with your predictions would be:

  • Hull to finish significantly lower
  • Blackburn to finish a bit lower
  • Watford to finish a bit higher

Interesting to see how Ipswich do. Many people are tipping them for top 6, which looks a bit optimistic to me. Good luck for this season.

Agree that Pearson's work is underappreciated by many neutrals (and even many of our own fans!)

I don't think many people appreciate just how much of a sh*tshow Pearson inherited.

The fact Pearson isn't very 'fashionable' doesn't help either. As @Davefevs says, fans and pundits both take a kinder view of younger managers who set their teams up to complete 1000 passes every week.

Yepp, maybe I'm being naive here, but I have no idea on what basis people could predict us to finish in the bottom third.

Here’s a table of my own prediction (FWIW), compared to BB (Benjamin Bloom), GS (Gab Sutton) and 20 (Not The Top 20).  These 3 are decent, well informed.

image.png.2ad9c206ccdbb2407cbafe4055e0c7f6.png

Ipswich, Hull, Stoke and Watford are the most variable. City’s range is small.

18 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I'm not sure many other managers would have kept us in this division, let alone rebuilt the club and put some solid foundations in place with next to no money. 

It makes me laugh when people say Pearson is out of touch with modern football tactics. At every club he's been at he's adapted and used a different system. I think the way we are going to play this season is going to shock a lot of people! 

If someone can give me a logical reason as to why we'll finish below where we finished last season then fair enough but no one has yet been able to do that. I find that our fanbase is generally quite realistic about where we will finish every season and it's not too far wrong. 

Incredible that people are still using words like “Dinosaur”. It’s lazy based on aged.  Why aren’t some of the youngsters being called “naive” for example.  I’m sure if you spoke to Kieran McKenna in 10 years time, he’d say he was a bit wet behind the ears in his formative years.

Nige is pretty modern in his thinking, but people forget he is a “football manager”, not a coach / head-coach. He just uses / empowers his experts like Fleming, Rennie, Euell to do some of the grunt work.  He doesn’t need to run the sessions, he observes.  It allows him to see more imho.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a table of my own prediction (FWIW), compared to BB (Benjamin Bloom), GS (Gab Sutton) and 20 (Not The Top 20).  These 3 are decent, well informed.

image.png.2ad9c206ccdbb2407cbafe4055e0c7f6.png

Ipswich, Hull, Stoke and Watford are the most variable. City’s range is small.

Sutton's backing of Hull and NTT20's backing of Ipswich are the real outliers. Both pretty wildly optimistic IMO.

You've then clearly got the block from 9th down to 18th where it's really anyone's guess. I personally wouldn't die on the hill for any of my placements in that mid-table melee.

Top 5 and bottom 5 are pretty consistent though, and I largely agree with them.

As ever, check back in during the first international break when the window is closed and teams have ten or eleven games under their belt. That's the point we can start to look at the stats as well and get a steer on who is misplaced at that moment.

Edited by ExiledAjax
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a table of my own prediction (FWIW), compared to BB (Benjamin Bloom), GS (Gab Sutton) and 20 (Not The Top 20).  These 3 are decent, well informed.

image.png.2ad9c206ccdbb2407cbafe4055e0c7f6.png

 

Interesting to compare! I know a few others are due out this week (Second Tier)

I am currently putting together my ante post bets for this season, working my way through the NTT20 pods - love to see something similar for Leagues 1 & 2 if it exsists?! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Sutton's backing of Hull and NTT20's backing of Ipswich are the real outliers. Both pretty wildly optimistic IMO.

You've then clearly got the block from 9th down to 18th where it's really anyone's guess. I personally wouldn't die on the hill for any of my placements in that mid-table melee.

Top 5 and bottom 5 are pretty consistent though, and I largely agree with them.

As ever, check back in during the first international break when the window is closed and teams have ten or eleven games under their belt. That's the point we can start to look at the stats as well and get a steer on who is misplaced at that moment.

I was surprised that NTT20 made such a big play about a cup tie against Burnley as a barometer.  It means little / nothing.  Jeez, we played well against Man City, a whole league higher.  They talk about stats, but it’s easy to take the numbers in Lg1 when there are 20+ sides worse than and see them as good, but they don’t play out at a higher level.  There will be a lot made of their results against the top 6/7…and they were good, something like p12 w5 d6 l1…but the two promoted sides are tipped to be relegated / bottom 6.

You are right, we won’t know much until several games in.  And there is much of muchness about the middle chunk.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

From my own conversations with fans of other clubs most of them vastly under estimate what a job Pearson has done. 

I think because it's Nigel Pearson, other fans expect us to walk the league under him.

When he came here, we had a squad full of players that were not good enough and who were just comfortable to be at Bristol City living in a place place and earning good money. 

The squad was completely unfit and we had lots of injuries. 

He was tasked with basically rebuilding the club whilst cutting costs quite substantially and only having very limited funds to bring players in. 

Since he's been here he's installed a culture at the club where every player is expected to be incredibly fit and to run and work hard. That's exactly what you'd expect from a Nigel Pearson team. But what other fans do not realise is that implementing a culture does not happen over night. There are so many moving parts to it. We are now one of the fittest teams in the league and with all the added time that will be added this season, fitness is going to be huge. 

I think saying he kept things stable is overlooking what he had to contend with to keep us in this division. 

He had to cut the wage bill massively whilst basically being told to work with what he had. He was tasked with turning the whole club around. The season before last we had to play 18 year old striker Sam Bell at RWB. Last season we had to play Andy King at CB and then had to play full backs at CB as we have been desperately unlucky with injuries since Nige has been here. 

We have seen year on year progression whilst never being in any danger of relegation. The job he has done under all those circumstances has been exceptional rather than "good" 

The work Nige has done with the academy players has been very refreshing. Our starting 11 next week will likely contain 6 academy players plus even more on the bench. The majority of those players walk into a lot of Championship sides. 

Other managers would not have invested in the academy players like Nige has as they would be too concerned about their own records. 

Nige has pretty much done exactly what he said he would do. It's not been easy but in some ways it has been enjoyable to watch our journey. When he came here we struggled to even get a shot on target in a lot of games. Now we're a team that presses from the front, plays on the front foot and we are full of energetic attacking players. 

Nige has restructured the club. He brought in Dave Rennie to oversee the medical/fitness department. He brought in Fleming and Euell as coaches and the biggest one was getting Brian Tinnion to be technical director which is essentially a DoF role. On the playing side the club is now joined up all the way from the academy to the first team and everyone is on the same page and pulling in the same direction. 

The work that Brian and Nige do together is incredible. 

We have probably never ever had this kind of professionalism about us as a club before, and that's down to Nige. 

This is the 1st summer where Nige has had some decent funds and he has spent it very very wisely. I think most of us are expecting a top 10 finish at least this season. I have us down as to be one of the genuine dark horses this season. 

I can see us easily finishing above Coventry who you've put ahead of us as they've lost their best two players and they've had a high turnover of players. Their manager has even said they are not ready for the new season. 

Last season we were pretty much in most games. We were consistent with our performances. It looks like over pre season we have taken a big step forward so I'm incredibly excited for the coming season. I've not been this excited for a very long time and I think that's a measure of how things are going for us right now.

I couldn’t have put it better myself. So I won’t!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, !james said:

Interesting to compare! I know a few others are due out this week (Second Tier)

I am currently putting together my ante post bets for this season, working my way through the NTT20 pods - love to see something similar for Leagues 1 & 2 if it exsists?! 

I don’t bother doing ones below Champ in the main.  I might do a 1-24 for Lg1, but I don’t follow the ins and outs religiously like I do the champ.

Not sure if you’re a twitter user:

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I was surprised that NTT20 made such a big play about a cup tie against Burnley as a barometer.  It means little / nothing.  Jeez, we played well against Man City, a whole league higher.  They talk about stats, but it’s easy to take the numbers in Lg1 when there are 20+ sides worse than and see them as good, but they don’t play out at a higher level.  There will be a lot made of their results against the top 6/7…and they were good, something like p12 w5 d6 l1…but the two promoted sides are tipped to be relegated / bottom 6.

You are right, we won’t know much until several games in.  And there is much of muchness about the middle chunk.

Yeh I don't think many will be saying "Burnley put out some incredible stats in the Championship and have a young talented manager in Kompany, so I've put them 3rd in the Premier League". Call that a wild comparison by me but it's essentially the NTT20 Ipswich argument.

Edited by ExiledAjax
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

There is a view amongst many of these pundits (and I massively rate the NTT20 guys) and that is they are a sucker for a young coach that play good football.  Martin, Manning…now McKenna.

Take aside the Ashton stuff, do we really see a forward line (inc wide forwards) of Hirst / Ladapo / Chaplin / Broadhead (injured again), Aluko, etc, backed up by a midfield of Morsy, Luongo, Evans, Jack Taylor bring good enough for 3rd?  I don’t - it’s not Jack Clarke, Ellis Simms, Diallo, etc like Sunderland (minus Stewart), is it?

And we e not mentioned their defence, that has a Burgess and Woolfenden at the heart of it.  Walton in goal is good.  But they should’ve strengthened the CB.  Leif Davis and Harry Clarke have pedigree from their PL clubs but unknown quantities at this level, backed up by Greg Leigh, Donacien and Wes Burns.

I might be totally wrong, but their fans are thinking Morsy and Luongo and gonna run midfields.  Did they do that in their pomp with better players around them?  Chaplin, ditto.

Mid-table best for me, more likely a wake-up call, bottom third, especially when they can’t get their best eleven out.  They didn’t even walk the league, they finished behind Plymouth.

The only caveat to that is that we know good managers improve players and they have a very good one in my opinion. I’ve got them 7th but think top half for sure 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Some interesting opinions from NTT20 I thought. 

I broadly agreed with their bottom half. Not sure I'd have QPR rock bottom but they are absolutely in trouble and will be down in that bottom 6. I'd also possible swap Rotherham and Cardiff and have Cardiff going down, I think the turmoil off the pitch will finally tell and they'll get relegated.

Mid-table again fine. I'd probably have Coventry in the top 6, and we're an interesting pick for 10th. My view is it's the right prediction but that our ultimate finish is going to be very dependent on luck and injuries. I'd say anything between 6th and 14th is possible for us as we've still got some exposure to depth issues - for example if we sell Scott and get one injury then our centre midfield suddenly looks thin. I don't know, maybe it's years of conditioning but I just can't bring myself to put us above 8th.

Top 6 I'm sorry but I can't put Ipswich 3rd like NTT20 did. They're reasoning was basically that they're on a big upper and will come flying out of the traps. Awesome lads, enjoy 3rd place in September but wait until you have to slog through the winter and your huge squad is disgruntled to the core. I predict Ipswich are this season's faders. Start well, fall away, finish about 9th.

I do agree on Leicester though. I'm close to some fans and staff there and it's either going to be a beautiful 100+ point dream of a season, or Coady, Winks et al are going to prove themselves past it and they'll struggle to make Enzoball work. I think 3rd/4th is the right call.

Top 2 I've no qualms with either. Both will be strong.

I think they had us way too high in 3rd as well and I think your prediction of trajectory may well be right but not for the reasons you say. We had a very big squad last year and it didn't negatively affect us. We've had very little turnover and 90% of our squad were with us in League One so I can't see too many of them being disgruntled at not starting Championship games. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Supersonic Robin said:

I think your prediction for us is pretty fair - I have us down to finish between 7th-12th.

My main disagreements with your predictions would be:

  • Hull to finish significantly lower
  • Blackburn to finish a bit lower
  • Watford to finish a bit higher

Interesting to see how Ipswich do. Many people are tipping them for top 6, which looks a bit optimistic to me. Good luck for this season.

Cheers, good luck to you too. Those three, as well as Norwich, were the hardest to place. I did a more in depth article about Watford in April detailing why I think they're in for a poor season unless things change. I like the Ismael appointment but it'll take a while to implement his style and like most Watford managers, he'll probably be out before he has the chance. 

Why Watford’s failure to win promotion must be the catalyst for off-field change (substack.com)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

From my own conversations with fans of other clubs most of them vastly under estimate what a job Pearson has done. 

I think because it's Nigel Pearson, other fans expect us to walk the league under him.

When he came here, we had a squad full of players that were not good enough and who were just comfortable to be at Bristol City living in a place place and earning good money. 

The squad was completely unfit and we had lots of injuries. 

He was tasked with basically rebuilding the club whilst cutting costs quite substantially and only having very limited funds to bring players in. 

Since he's been here he's installed a culture at the club where every player is expected to be incredibly fit and to run and work hard. That's exactly what you'd expect from a Nigel Pearson team. But what other fans do not realise is that implementing a culture does not happen over night. There are so many moving parts to it. We are now one of the fittest teams in the league and with all the added time that will be added this season, fitness is going to be huge. 

I think saying he kept things stable is overlooking what he had to contend with to keep us in this division. 

He had to cut the wage bill massively whilst basically being told to work with what he had. He was tasked with turning the whole club around. The season before last we had to play 18 year old striker Sam Bell at RWB. Last season we had to play Andy King at CB and then had to play full backs at CB as we have been desperately unlucky with injuries since Nige has been here. 

We have seen year on year progression whilst never being in any danger of relegation. The job he has done under all those circumstances has been exceptional rather than "good" 

The work Nige has done with the academy players has been very refreshing. Our starting 11 next week will likely contain 6 academy players plus even more on the bench. The majority of those players walk into a lot of Championship sides. 

Other managers would not have invested in the academy players like Nige has as they would be too concerned about their own records. 

Nige has pretty much done exactly what he said he would do. It's not been easy but in some ways it has been enjoyable to watch our journey. When he came here we struggled to even get a shot on target in a lot of games. Now we're a team that presses from the front, plays on the front foot and we are full of energetic attacking players. 

Nige has restructured the club. He brought in Dave Rennie to oversee the medical/fitness department. He brought in Fleming and Euell as coaches and the biggest one was getting Brian Tinnion to be technical director which is essentially a DoF role. On the playing side the club is now joined up all the way from the academy to the first team and everyone is on the same page and pulling in the same direction. 

The work that Brian and Nige do together is incredible. 

We have probably never ever had this kind of professionalism about us as a club before, and that's down to Nige. 

This is the 1st summer where Nige has had some decent funds and he has spent it very very wisely. I think most of us are expecting a top 10 finish at least this season. I have us down as to be one of the genuine dark horses this season. 

I can see us easily finishing above Coventry who you've put ahead of us as they've lost their best two players and they've had a high turnover of players. Their manager has even said they are not ready for the new season. 

Last season we were pretty much in most games. We were consistent with our performances. It looks like over pre season we have taken a big step forward so I'm incredibly excited for the coming season. I've not been this excited for a very long time and I think that's a measure of how things are going for us right now.

Interesting, thanks for that. From an outside perspective, things definitely look more positive than they did two years ago. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the Championship it’s not just about having good technical players. It’s also about the collective desire to work hard for your team mates, athleticism and a team spirit 

These attributes are what NP and the coaching staff have been working on over the last 12-18 months. If you then add the new players into the squad to give us more depth then I genuinely think we will make our mark on this league providing we stay clear of key injuries 

if Scott stays then I’m fairly confident we can make top 6, if he is sold then depending on who/if we replace him with it could lower our chances 

A lot of twists and turns ahead but the way the club have approached the close season, the signings so far and the pre season form all bodes well for 23/24 

My expectations are much higher this season because we look to have turned a corner and actually have all the pieces in place to make a mark and genuinely be contenders for promotion 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh I don't think many will be saying "Burnley put out some incredible stats in the Championship and have a young talented manager in Kompany, so I've put them 3rd in the Premier League". Call that a wild comparison by me but it's essentially the NTT20 Ipswich argument.

It's also equivalent to predicting that Cotts' League 1 champions were so good at that level that they would finish 3rd in the Championship. They struggled of course.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I find anyone who puts Ipswich top 6, with their squad how it is, absolute fantasy. Ashton beef aside. The only people who should think it are giddy Ipswich fans themselves. 
 

They had a huge wobble in league one at the turn of the year, genuinely don’t have any players that are too good for the level, and are coming into a very tough league. 
 

Love the NTT20 boys, but having them above the likes of Boro and Sunderland is absolute nonsense imo based on nothing other than being starry eyed blind over a manager. 

Edited by petehinton
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, EFL View said:

I think they had us way too high in 3rd as well and I think your prediction of trajectory may well be right but not for the reasons you say. We had a very big squad last year and it didn't negatively affect us. We've had very little turnover and 90% of our squad were with us in League One so I can't see too many of them being disgruntled at not starting Championship games. 

I merely speak as one experienced fan who has witnessed a Mark Ashton squad develop over time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, chinapig said:

It's also equivalent to predicting that Cotts' League 1 champions were so good at that level that they would finish 3rd in the Championship. They struggled of course.

Think we started with a weaker squad than we came up with and the disgruntlement regarding transfers didn't help.

All the same Ipswich for 3rd this coming season, it feels fairly crazy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a table of my own prediction (FWIW), compared to BB (Benjamin Bloom), GS (Gab Sutton) and 20 (Not The Top 20).  These 3 are decent, well informed.

image.png.2ad9c206ccdbb2407cbafe4055e0c7f6.png

Ipswich, Hull, Stoke and Watford are the most variable. City’s range is small.

Incredible that people are still using words like “Dinosaur”. It’s lazy based on aged.  Why aren’t some of the youngsters being called “naive” for example.  I’m sure if you spoke to Kieran McKenna in 10 years time, he’d say he was a bit wet behind the ears in his formative years.

Nige is pretty modern in his thinking, but people forget he is a “football manager”, not a coach / head-coach. He just uses / empowers his experts like Fleming, Rennie, Euell to do some of the grunt work.  He doesn’t need to run the sessions, he observes.  It allows him to see more imho.

Isn't that exactly what Sir Alex used to do? 

I like Pearsons style. When Pearson talks, people listen. 

I think he spent the majority of the pre season games up in the stands watching? Thats what he did when he first came here? As it gives him a better view of whats going on. 

I think this season we will see a clearly defined style from us. Up until now weve been building towards that style.

15 hours ago, INCRED said:

In the Championship it’s not just about having good technical players. It’s also about the collective desire to work hard for your team mates, athleticism and a team spirit 

These attributes are what NP and the coaching staff have been working on over the last 12-18 months. If you then add the new players into the squad to give us more depth then I genuinely think we will make our mark on this league providing we stay clear of key injuries 

if Scott stays then I’m fairly confident we can make top 6, if he is sold then depending on who/if we replace him with it could lower our chances 

A lot of twists and turns ahead but the way the club have approached the close season, the signings so far and the pre season form all bodes well for 23/24 

My expectations are much higher this season because we look to have turned a corner and actually have all the pieces in place to make a mark and genuinely be contenders for promotion 

What a lot of fans of all clubs don't realise is that to build a team that has that collective desire does not happen over night and it takes quite a long time to have all the correct personalities in the squad. One bad egg can destroy the whole team ethos. I've had so much crap from other fans about how Pearson has so say taken us backwards which makes me laugh. From my perspective we've completely transformed under Pearson. I've constantly been telling them that Pearson and Co have been rebuilding the squad for the past 2 years and that at some point we will take off. 

We now look like a Nigel Pearson team. I liked what I saw last season where by and large our performances were pretty consistent as was the worm ethic. I think that level has been upped since last season. Nige saying how the players came back fitter than expected shows how far this squad has improved. 

We usually have a good season when we have that squad cohesion and that's made me feel incredibly excited about the coming season.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, pl00peh91 said:

In a hilarious bit of analysis, The Second Tier podcast have said that we have a squad that should be pushing for the top six, but because of their irrational hatred of Pearson they’ve shoved us in 16th in their predictions.

From 3:19 on here if anyone wants a laugh ?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...