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Scott Twine - Loan Confirmed - No option to buy


Shauntaylor85

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30 minutes ago, Harry said:

Nonsense. 
I watched him live numerous times. Not on FM. 
You can scroll back to literally tens and tens of posts I made about him back when he was in league 2 and available for free. At a time when we were clearly looking at cutting costs and fees, so him being on a free and local was an ideal opportunity given our circumstances and needs. 
 

So no, I refute the FM allegation. I’ve seen him play about 25 times. 
 

The thing is we see a lot of people talk up players only for those players to go on to not do much, the whole "could have got him for less back when" discussion means nothing really because it's pure "what if" as he could have joined us back then and not developed for numerous reasons. Someone else could have got Alex Scott but maybe without our solid youth focus he may have not developed into the player he is today. I hate the whole "we should have got him back then" argument, too many factors and if it was obvious there was a real talent and that he was interested I think a lot more clubs would have got involved back then. 

I think our youth system has a good eye for when they can bring a player in and develop them and the earlier you bring in a player the more work you'll have to do, for all we know we looked at him and said "he's too raw, we don't have the time to invest" whereas the route he took they did have that time. 

All of that aside it's now and here that matters, we didn't sign him and if the price is £5m and the club feel that is too steep then that's the situation and we need to look elsewhere. I feel the club better knows it's financial limits than any of us fans do and are in a better place to make a decision on whether he's worth it or not.

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1 minute ago, Spike said:

The thing is we see a lot of people talk up players only for those players to go on to not do much, the whole "could have got him for less back when" discussion means nothing really because it's pure "what if" as he could have joined us back then and not developed for numerous reasons. Someone else could have got Alex Scott but maybe without our solid youth focus he may have not developed into the player he is today. I hate the whole "we should have got him back then" argument, too many factors and if it was obvious there was a real talent and that he was interested I think a lot more clubs would have got involved back then. 

I think our youth system has a good eye for when they can bring a player in and develop them and the earlier you bring in a player the more work you'll have to do, for all we know we looked at him and said "he's too raw, we don't have the time to invest" whereas the route he took they did have that time. 

All of that aside it's now and here that matters, we didn't sign him and if the price is £5m and the club feel that is too steep then that's the situation and we need to look elsewhere. I feel the club better knows its financial limits than any of us fans do and are in a better place to make a decision on whether he's worth it or not.

But just to clarify again. 
I’m not bothered that we “missed out” on him 3 years ago. As I said, plenty of players get missed. There are of course always a lot of what-ifs as you say, and these things are always a gamble.  

Twine wasn’t signed by us at that time and that’s fine. Decision was made. No problem with that. 
 

What is embarrassing is if we return 2.5 years later for £5m. 
 

If he goes elsewhere for £5m then again I’m not bothered. But I am very bothered if we spend £5m on someone that we chose not to look at 3 years ago for a tiny percentage of that figure. 
 

None of this is about ego or one upmanship which has been mentioned on here. I’m not bothered that we didn’t sign him before. But I am very bothered if we sign him now for an extraordinary sum! 

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2 hours ago, Jose said:

We are not signing him for 5 million. Not a chance. I’d rather not sign anyone than get ripped off completely. 
 

I’ve not much hope this window, so when inevitably it is a poor one, disappointment won’t be too high. 

Very happy that this shows we are not going back to the crazy days of overspending to get ‘our man’. No way is he worth anywhere near that amount.   

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19 minutes ago, Shuffle said:

Twine was on our door step & seems a shame that we didn’t respond to that fact coupled with recommendations.  However, we always hear about the ones that got away but what about those that were also recommended whose careers bombed after the recommendation thus avoiding us wasting money.  Twine seems on parallel with gamblers who only ever tell you about their wins.  I’m genuinely interested in the % of players who were recommended & went on to flourish against the total pool of all recommendations as no idea personally?

 

To answer this. 
There are lots of players that I quite like and that I’d recommend for ‘further viewing’. But there are very few that I’ve been absolutely adamant that we must sign. 
A list of those who I’ve been absolutely adamant that we must sign : Pack, Freeman, Ayling, Grimes, Ollie Watkins, Bowen, Twine, Rudoni. 

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7 minutes ago, Harry said:

To answer this. 
There are lots of players that I quite like and that I’d recommend for ‘further viewing’. But there are very few that I’ve been absolutely adamant that we must sign. 
A list of those who I’ve been absolutely adamant that we must sign : Pack, Freeman, Ayling, Grimes, Ollie Watkins, Bowen, Twine, Rudoni. 

You've given 'a list', what about 'the list'

Come on Harry, you must have picked the wrong runner at some point.....

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9 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

You've given 'a list', what about 'the list'

Come on Harry, you must have picked the wrong runner at some point.....

As I said. There’s lots of other players who I’ve really liked. But those listed above are the very few who I’ve been absolutely adamant and convinced about. 
That list is my 95% to 100% ers. 
There a good list of 85% to 95% ers. 
And the a further list of 75% to 85% ers. 
 

I’m only absolutely adamant about the 95% + list. 
But yes; of course there are lots of other players who I like. 

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10 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

I for one am really surprised, and in many ways, outraged, that our club didn't listen to random people on the internet and base their scouting network on that.

Again. Just to be clear. This wasn’t just mutterings on the internet. 

Anyway. As I said. I’m not at all bothered that we didn’t sign him. 
But I do find it laughable that we’d consider paying such a high price 2.5 years later. 
Which is the main reason why, even though I like him a lot, I hope we don’t actually sign him now. 

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19 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

I for one am really surprised, and in many ways, outraged, that our club didn't listen to random people on the internet and base their scouting network on that.

Has it occurred to you that some people on this very forum are maybe not just random people off the internet….

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45 minutes ago, Harry said:

To answer this. 
There are lots of players that I quite like and that I’d recommend for ‘further viewing’. But there are very few that I’ve been absolutely adamant that we must sign. 
A list of those who I’ve been absolutely adamant that we must sign : Pack, Freeman, Ayling, Grimes, Ollie Watkins, Bowen, Twine, Rudoni. 

I think I’m very similar, lots of players I like, a much smaller number I’d genuinely say “we must sign”.  And of course some are rather obvious - Jason Knight, although even with him, it was on the basis of not just him being a good player, but that I thought he was a fantastic fit for us.

Some of it depends on value for money.  Regardless of “missing” Twine or how good a player he is….would I spend £5m on him?  Nope.  I still think he is a bit of “unknown quantity” at this level.  Hence why (imho) recruitment wise he’s a player you want to get early, because the cost matches the risk.

Ostigard

Rudoni

Ogbene

Knight

Koroma

In recent years were my “musts”.  Thought they were all great fits and achievable signings.

Plus a couple of Peterborough players who never make the cut, because of the Barry Fry / cost too much factor!

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50 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

You've given 'a list', what about 'the list'

Come on Harry, you must have picked the wrong runner at some point.....

 

37 minutes ago, Harry said:

As I said. There’s lots of other players who I’ve really liked. But those listed above are the very few who I’ve been absolutely adamant and convinced about. 
That list is my 95% to 100% ers. 
There a good list of 85% to 95% ers. 
And the a further list of 75% to 85% ers. 
 

I’m only absolutely adamant about the 95% + list. 
But yes; of course there are lots of other players who I like. 

Actually Cidercity, I will expand a bit more. 
Yes, there have been some players who I’ve been keen on who haven’t maybe hit the heights. 
I was very keen on Callum Wright. From Leicester, now at Plymouth. He’d have been borderline in my 95%+ list. 
I was very keen on Josh Sheehan when he was a free from Newport. He’s at Bolton currently. He’d have been in my 95%+ range too. 
After 2 initial viewings, I had Anthony Hartigan in my 95% range. But I then watched him a further 12 or so times and he dropped into my 85% range. He went to Mansfield and then had injuries and is on loan at Barnet at the mo.

For what it’s worth, Mehmeti was in my 85-95% range. 
 

So yes, there are always ‘lists’. But I do have an absolutely must sign list and Twine was on it. 

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

As I said. There’s lots of other players who I’ve really liked. But those listed above are the very few who I’ve been absolutely adamant and convinced about. 
That list is my 95% to 100% ers. 
There a good list of 85% to 95% ers. 
And the a further list of 75% to 85% ers. 
 

I’m only absolutely adamant about the 95% + list. 
But yes; of course there are lots of other players who I like. 

Where was Tomlin on your list 😀

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19 minutes ago, Philly The Kid said:

What happened about the Massengo compo?
Have we had that or is there a deal to done there?
I read I think upwards of £1M in compo as it was an English club so maybe the deal could be structured in the same way it was with Brownhill/Wells....

No where near a mil 

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The issue is less about the player's ability, but the strategy and direction of City. With such a small turnover and losses of £20M plus , again, you cannot flip-flop between developing academy and youth players, or players early in their development, with a player already having a third pro contract and a multi-million transfer. it does not fit. It would be financial suicide. Again. We have already done the Chelsea trio, add in Wells, and that is close to £20M plus wages with zero return. If a player like Twine was of interest, and he was clearly known by the club, then post Swindon was the best time to gamble(as every transfer is to an extent) and at the very worst, when at MK. It is certainly not now. The boat has sailed for a club where our income is low and we we need to develop and nurture. Free transfers maybe, but that sort of fee for a player who is at a Prem club and regarded as not good enough would be a terrible financial error. We cannot repeat this nonsense. The signing of Murphy is a better example of where we need to be, and where we have had some very good success these last few years. The signs are, that we have at least understood this. Twine on loan is a different discussion and would make more financial sense. 

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4 minutes ago, Philly The Kid said:

Fair enough, I was given to understand (Probably incorrectly) that a foreign club and it's @£300k and English club up to £1.5M.

I think had we have tried to go to tribunal with Burnley we’d have got more than what was settled.  But we’d have run the risk of the deal not happening at all, and back with the £300k from FIFA.  I’m only guessing but I imagine we sucked up a lower fee in exchange for assurance the deal would happen and some add-ons too.

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3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

£30-35m turnover isn't too bad...

High cost base too of course. I wouldn't go £5m for Twine though.

Turnover is vanity. Look at where the money comes from. The breakdown of the real incoming income, real money coming into the club, season ticket sales, POTD, tv income, and sponsorship. You get nowhere near your (their) numbers. We must be selling a lot of pies or selling intra-group to inflate turnover (and giving subsequent cost base cross charges). To lose £22m with a £30M T/O with a playing staff wage cost closer to £15m than £20m tells you everything. 

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5 minutes ago, RollsRoyce said:

Turnover is vanity. Look at where the money comes from. The breakdown of the real incoming income, real money coming into the club, season ticket sales, POTD, tv income, and sponsorship. You get nowhere near your (their) numbers. We must be selling a lot of pies or selling intra-group to inflate turnover (and giving subsequent cost base cross charges). To lose £22m with a £30M T/O with a playing staff wage cost closer to £15m than £20m tells you everything. 

Well I'm just looking at it from an FFP context and what we could theoretically lose or spend, Bristol City Holdings the consolidator but non trading is my starting point.

We consolidate AGL into Bristol City Holdings alongside the club, all the concerts etc. Can more be done with the cost base- absolutely. Not just wages either.

It tells us a lot about the industry and the division in particular..I expect costs will be down this season. Maybe by £10m across the piece.

Sorry I missed the bit about the Playing staff but..13 months will of course artificially inflate. Swiss Ramble reckoned it added £5.3m to our losses.

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