If there was a takeover in the next 12 months...

[Red_Alligator]

7 minutes ago, fisherrich said:

Not many investors would be interested in Bristol Sport as a 100% package - pro rugby especially has a lot problems financially, just doesn’t work for many foreign investors. But Bristol City FC could be a wise investment for the right owner.
Time will tell.

Ah, would that it were Mr Rich. Would that it were......

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, WarksRobin said:

The other consideration here is who would want to invest? There are essentially three types of investors:

1. Institutional investors, eg pension funds who want a stable long term income from their investment. They are never going to invest in a Championship football club.

2. Venture Capital type investors who will be looking for a strong return in the short or medium term. If there was no return in a few years they would start selling anything to find a return. Also, they may not have the means to invest significant sums. A possible investor but undesirable from a fan perspective.

3. An angel investor. Similar to what we have today in SL. Someone who invests and wants a long term return but is patient and prepared to take a loss. Most football investors fall into this category but there are not many of them around. 

Although Ipswich do appear to have been purchased by a pension fund.

If they're at this level in two or three years still that would be an interesting one to watch!

[Superjack]

6 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Lansdown is binning him off in 8 months anyway....

Or before.

[95red]

3 hours ago, Sir Geoff said:

Why would anyone want to blow the last 2/3 years of steady financial re alignment to just blow it all again. FFP and parachute payments are all stacked against us. We have to continue building slowly and hope we get lucky with building a squad organically that is good enough to compete around the play offs for a couple of years and then hope we get to a play off final and actually win it.

How so boring won't happen  ,when lansdown  goes I bloody  hope we go for it life's  so short.

[Mr Popodopolous]

17 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Lansdown is binning him off in 8 months anyway....

Hopefully not.

5 minutes ago, 95red said:

How so boring won't happen  ,when lansdown  goes I bloody  hope we go for it life's  so short.

This brings us to the crux.

What parameters do you define as going for it? How high a spend,  how high a wage bill?

Boring dry details aside to go for it properly would be exciting. It would be different and it would bring with it a certain pressure and air of anticipation.

Edited August 27, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[redkev]

33 minutes ago, Ska Junkie said:

You as well Kev. I've been tiling all bloody day.

I said I had a list I never said I done them ️️

[WarksRobin]

13 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Although Ipswich do appear to have been purchased by a pension fund.

If they're at this level in two or three years still that would be an interesting one to watch!

Indeed, given the pension beneficiaries are US emergency service personnel that could be interesting if it goes tits up.

"... the new ultimate beneficial owner of the Blues is a US investment fund called ORG, which manage funds on behalf of large US pension pot - the Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System - and who own 90% of Gamechanger 20 Ltd."

I hope they have a good CEO....

Edited August 27, 2023 by WarksRobin

[95red]

New investment  brings ££££ go for it ,sitting waiting  won't happen  ,selling  all our top talent  every  year continues  who's next .lansdown  wants out that why he's steadying  the ship roll on the next era .

[Andy082005]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Price too high? Structure too complex?

Mix of the two maybe. They would have inherited a difficult financial position or hemmed in anyway had they taken over but now they won't.

Lansdown has made it clear any investment / take over would have to involve the whole of Bristol sport 

As someone alluded to - there was slight interest from the U.S, but that interest was in the football side of things only 

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, 95red said:

New investment  brings ££££ go for it ,sitting waiting  won't happen  ,selling  all our top talent  every  year continues  who's next .lansdown  wants out that why he's steadying  the ship roll on the next era .

It doesn't change FFP except for two possibilities.

New business opportunities and if debt written off, the interest on said debt may go too thereby reducing losses.

E.g. a £2m interest saving could mean a £2m increase to the player cost base.

Edited August 27, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Andy082005]

16 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hopefully not.

This brings us to the crux.

What parameters do you define as going for it? How high a spend,  how high a wage bill?

Boring dry details aside to go for it properly would be exciting. It would be different and it would bring with it a certain pressure and air of anticipation.

Personally I think we will soon be at the stage to move on from Pearson. Overall - he has done an ok job, but do you really see him being the manager / coach who can take us to the next step and turn us into a top 6 club?

I just don’t see it 

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, Andy082005 said:

Personally I think we will soon be at the stage to move on from Pearson. Overall - he has done an ok job, but do you really see him being the manager / coach who can take us to the next step and turn us into a top 6 club?

I just don’t see it 

He hasn't really been backed. Until now anyway.

He's had to do a cost cutting, heavily restraint linked job. Perhaps he was brought in to steady the ship, lay foundations but I want to see what he can do keeping star or key players for a year or 2, given £10-15m to spend etc.

Edited August 27, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[tin]

2 hours ago, sh1t_ref_again said:

So you have inside knowledge? Do tell more

Not at all. I just read and trust what my  old mate@Kid in the Riotsays as he is ITK and has posted this previously. 

[sh1t_ref_again]

27 minutes ago, tin said:

Not at all. I just read and trust what my  old mate@Kid in the Riotsays as he is ITK and has posted this previously. 

In fairness, I know the kid gets some info from someone in the club and passes on here and not saying he is wrong. But you would think unless his source it someone at a very senior level, then they are not going to know the full picture about who has or hasn't been interested as these are generally very confidential conversations and on a need to know basis, but I guess like any organisation, there will be gossip and Chinese whispers, how much of that is true of course we will never know.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Agreed. Think for off field Commercial Revenue ie events etc we score quite well, saw a table of clubs a few years ago at out level from 2019 and we were quite competitive for this level.

A weird one was Stoke as their Commercial Revenue actually rose during Covid which defies Fair Value norms I would suggest for a non elite club in the middle of this League...another for the League to look at?

Yeah definitely as part of a package but only in some ways do we score badly and then we have to factor in the cost side- does shutting the club shop more frequently in the week, greater click and collect actually make a net saving?

 I know you mention cost, but how much are those commercial revenues costing us?  Unless they are profitable what’s the point (from a Holdings point of view)?  And some of AG Ltd’s overall revenue comes from Bristol City FC anyway.  As I posted earlier AG Ltd makes a loss every year.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Davefevs said:

 I know you mention cost, but how much are those commercial revenues costing us?  Unless they are profitable what’s the point (from a Holdings point of view)?  And some of AG Ltd’s overall revenue comes from Bristol City FC anyway.  As I posted earlier AG Ltd makes a loss every year.

This is fair too.

The profit and or profit margin is the key there. Ashton Gate Limited running at a loss is a bit of a puzzle, that should as a more regular type of business be running at break even bare minimum.

[Superjack]

1 hour ago, Andy082005 said:

Personally I think we will soon be at the stage to move on from Pearson. Overall - he has done an ok job, but do you really see him being the manager / coach who can take us to the next step and turn us into a top 6 club?

I just don’t see it 

Yes. I do. 

But only if he is backed like he has earned the right to be.

[W-S-M Seagull]

7 hours ago, Supersonic Robin said:

I think we have to accept any downside risk we are presented with.

We're at a point with Lansdown where I and many others feel we cannot truly progress without new ownership.

I'm not convinced that any risk is greater than the risk of 20 more years of underachievement. We HAVE to try something new, and accept that the potential for risk is also an element of the potential for reward.

The might say that, but I think that's because they haven't fully thought it through.

They may want Lansdown's money, but they haven't considered that they also get Lansdown's culture and decision making. They get Jon Lansdown as Chairman, they get Mark Ashton as CEO, they get managers like Keith Millen and Dean Holden. They get 20 years of not really achieving anything.

If they were to consider the FULL picture, I doubt that many EFL clubs of a similar size to us would want 20 years of the Lansdowns.

 

Give me 20 years of the Lansdowns and all that comes with it over the owners of Wigan, Blackburn, Cardiff, West Brom etc. 

Whilst the Lansdowns are here, are club will never be in financial trouble, and for that I am very grateful. 

[Supersonic Robin]

9 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Give me 20 years of the Lansdowns and all that comes with it over the owners of Wigan, Blackburn, Cardiff, West Brom etc. 

Whilst the Lansdowns are here, are club will never be in financial trouble, and for that I am very grateful. 

West Brom have spent more than half of the last 20 years in the Premier League.
Wigan have spent a significant amount of the last 20 years in the Premier League and won an FA Cup in 2013.
Blackburn have spent a significant amount of the last 20 years in the Premier League.
Cardiff have been promoted to the Premier League twice in the last 20 years, and reached an FA Cup Final and a League Cup Final.

I'm very confident that none of those clubs would want to swap their last 20 years for ours. In fact they wouldn't even have to think about it - they'd probably laugh at the suggestion.

 

[fisherrich]

16 hours ago, Andy082005 said:

Personally I think we will soon be at the stage to move on from Pearson. Overall - he has done an ok job, but do you really see him being the manager / coach who can take us to the next step and turn us into a top 6 club?

I just don’t see it 

Lansdown has not backed NP financially. Give him some £££s and see what he can do.

[Glen hump]

16 hours ago, Andy082005 said:

Personally I think we will soon be at the stage to move on from Pearson. Overall - he has done an ok job, but do you really see him being the manager / coach who can take us to the next step and turn us into a top 6 club?

I just don’t see it 

Who do you think could really move us forward?

[Glen hump]

10 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Give me 20 years of the Lansdowns and all that comes with it over the owners of Wigan, Blackburn, Cardiff, West Brom etc. 

Whilst the Lansdowns are here, are club will never be in financial trouble, and for that I am very grateful. 

Yeah, who wants promotions and all that cup final malarkey.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Let's take all 4 of those clubs in turn. I agree they wouldn't necessarily swap but timeframes are also being conflated a bit.

SL 100 pct could have invested more when it was easier to finance such rises. He should also be sticking a bit more in now!

Blackburn

Rose up under Walker well before FFP plus an infrastructure was put in place over time. Ewood was redeveloped and they have a Category One Academy.

They obviously had their success under Walker but were not all the same enormous spenders overall even under him. He passed on in 2000 and though the Walker Trust helped the club out it wasn't infinite. They became a very well run albeit tight to the wire club in the PL. Venky's then foolishly sacked Big Sam and appointed Steve Kean. Whereas the smart move would have been 

Within 18 months they were related from the PL! 18 months from the Venky's taking over one of the best run clubs in the country. There was also chatter that they believed promotion and relegation did not exist, they also failed FFP in 2015 and were under a lengthy transfer embargo and post Parachute Payments ended up in League One.

Cardiff

From Hammam onwards they rose up. They had wealthy owners of varying types and reached the PL after some near misses in 2012-13. SL could totally have invested more strongly in pre FFP days no argument but they also had a new stadium with greater revenue potential in 2009. They went up, they came down. They failed FFP under the old rules although they argued it was a difference in interpretation and embargoed.

They went up again while in receipt of Parachute Payments just in time in 2017-18! Back then you got 4 years and lime Fulham they went up in the 4th season.

Came back down, underpinned by Parachute Payments somewhat they reached the playoffs then 8th. Parachute Payments are now two years and their last two years saw a sharp decline. Let's see how they do this year, the 3rd year post Parachute Payments with the FFP headroom seemingly shrinking.

West Brom

Deep concerns about their finances. However in the first instance they were a great success vs the odds. Gary Megson improved them then took them up in 2002. Don't think they were huge spenders in fact sure they weren't. We could have gone bigger in these early pre FFP days!

Came back down, went back up in receipt of Parachute Payments. Stayed up, came down, went up, went down, went up, then stayed up 8 years.

Oh did I mention Parachute Payments and by now FFP was starting to approach.

2001-02..EFL money and Promotion against the odds!

2002-03..PL cash!

2003-04..Parachute Payments of some sort (Up)

2004-05..PL cash!

2005-06..PL cash!

2006-07..Parachute Payments

2007-08..Parachute Payments (Up)

2008-09..PL cash!

2009-10..Parachute Payments (Up)

2010-11 to 2017-18..PL cash!

2018-19..Parachute Payments

2019-20...Parachute Payments (Up)

2020-21..PL cash!

2021-22..Parachute Payments

2022-23..Parachute Payments

2023-24..EFL money only!!

Let's see how it goes now. Let alone the owner and his difficulties. The current owner took over in 2016 and they have been downwardly trending since.

Wigan

Rose up under Whelan. Again no FFP, new ground too.

They very much exceeded the odds and credit to them. Post Parachute Payments however has been quite the struggle. They went up in 2004-05 again well before FFP though also recruited quite well etc.. back on their 3rd stint in League One.

They had 2005-0 to 2012-13 in the PL then 3 years worth of Parachute Payments. First year without they went down! Maybe even the 4th and last year into them, cant quite recall.

They went into administration in 2020 and the club itself at jeopardy, and their last owners were also a problem hence the multiple deductions. Didn't they nearly go into administration again.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Guest]

19 hours ago, tin said:

Plenty of interest in BCFC, apparently; little interest in Bristol Sport - SL’s Barcelona replica pipe dream.

Exactly, we are part now of SL`s dream, we BCFC have been taken down this road by SL like it or not, very much not like it in my case.

Were we not led to believe that the redeveloped ground and BS was the way to go and it would spur us on to bigger better things and..............here we are in the same div as we were 60yrs ago.

The Super Stad is making little to nothing and has got us seperated from our own ground and made us part of something else that we have no control over. I see no progress.

Any takeover would have to involve the stadium as well or we could have to build one as well down the fruit market

Edited August 28, 2023 by wtf

[Johnny Musicworks]

There are plenty of investors out there looking to get a football club on the cheap (see Bristol Rovers). They work on the basis that people assume they are rich but often they are unable to provide the levels needed to sustain a football club long term. Those investors would shy away from the Bristol Sport model as it could expose their financial shortcomings. With the multi-sport model Lansdown has created then only really big investors would be interested or would I think be entertained. 

I agree that Americans look the most likely as the multi sport model is much more common there. What I think may happen is that at some point the Lansdowns will enter into a Partnership (possibly with an American Sports Franchise)rather than a straight out sale and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was Jon’s remit with his contacts there. That may also suit Jon’s long-term ambitions. A trans-Atlantic Sport operation could be very worthwhile for all concerned.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I'm open-minded as to whether we need a change of owner, finance, mindset or fresh ideas. Maybe a mix of all of them.

New owners definitely could bring the latter! Plus a willingness to spend more even if SL certainly has the ability.

Still how much a new owner should and could spend is surely a key consideration of those clamouring for change. Any concrete figures yet?

Edited August 28, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Glen hump]

2 hours ago, Johnny Musicworks said:

There are plenty of investors out there looking to get a football club on the cheap (see Bristol Rovers). They work on the basis that people assume they are rich but often they are unable to provide the levels needed to sustain a football club long term. Those investors would shy away from the Bristol Sport model as it could expose their financial shortcomings. With the multi-sport model Lansdown has created then only really big investors would be interested or would I think be entertained. 

I agree that Americans look the most likely as the multi sport model is much more common there. What I think may happen is that at some point the Lansdowns will enter into a Partnership (possibly with an American Sports Franchise)rather than a straight out sale and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was Jon’s remit with his contacts there. That may also suit Jon’s long-term ambitions. A trans-Atlantic Sport operation could be very worthwhile for all concerned.

Think Jon’s happy doing his colouring in books in the Caribbean for now.

[W-S-M Seagull]

4 hours ago, Supersonic Robin said:

West Brom have spent more than half of the last 20 years in the Premier League.
Wigan have spent a significant amount of the last 20 years in the Premier League and won an FA Cup in 2013.
Blackburn have spent a significant amount of the last 20 years in the Premier League.
Cardiff have been promoted to the Premier League twice in the last 20 years, and reached an FA Cup Final and a League Cup Final.

I'm very confident that none of those clubs would want to swap their last 20 years for ours. In fact they wouldn't even have to think about it - they'd probably laugh at the suggestion.

 

Why are you so obsessed with the premier league? Why would you want to risk our very existence for a brief spell in the premier league? 

Many ex premier league clubs now find themselves in league one following dodgy ownership which risked the existence of their clubs. I'll take the financial stability of Lansdown over that thank you. 

 

[mozo]

21 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

In theory if they are part of a consortium or a wider business group we sponsor the stadium, each stand and the Training Ground. Perhaps a couple to few million more per year in total.

Then you spend up to the £39m..as it stands 3 year £60m accounting losses and hope. If you have a good Year 1 you can spread this risk over 2 seasons maybe.

Downside is you fail and you're in a mess! Would new ambitous owners have the patience for the downside risk of cost cutting, potential sanctions, and maybe 2 years until they can go again.

However they would know what they are signing up to.

If they took over in a year they could spend £39m in 2 years plus a remaining headroom from this season and hope to go up by 2026.

Again huge problems if you don't.

Yep, surely a comprehensive sponsorship deal is one of the primary options available to create spending power (if that is the objective).

Didn't Etihad inject a favourable £400m for 10 years of sponsorship? So that's four prime Jack Grealishes paid for...

Obvs we won't quite find a deal on that scale, but if ambitious investors were trying to force us into the Prem, that's part of the strategy.

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, mozo said:

Yep, surely a comprehensive sponsorship deal is one of the primary options available to create spending power (if that is the objective).

Didn't Etihad inject a favourable £400m for 10 years of sponsorship? So that's four prime Jack Grealishes paid for...

Obvs we won't quite find a deal on that scale, but if ambitious investors were trying to force us into the Prem, that's part of the strategy.

That has been tightened up since like many loopholes.

There are both Related and Associated Party rules now. The League do check these matters, and indeed as part of a Takeover process a 2 year Business Plan is required and part of it will he FFP related.

If truly Arms Length, clubs can accept what they want.

However yes a couple to a few million more per year could be possible even aligned to the new rules.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous