10 Game Assessment

[Silvio Dante]

I think we’re roughly where we deserve to be. It’s notable (but also a sign of resilience) that two of the four wins have come through injury time winners - no doubt Millwall and Rotherham will feel we got more points than we should there.

I’ve watched all games bar Millwall and my feelings on what was merited from each game are:

Preston - Draw, possible loss

Hull - Draw

Birmingham - Loss

Swansea - Win

WBA - Draw

Plymouth - Win

Leicester - Loss

Stoke - Win

Rotherham - Draw

That says to me we’ve broadly got what was merited each game, drawing and winning games against PNE and Rotherham we probably could have lost and drawn respectively and losing a game we should have won against Stoke.

Bizarrely, had the points come as merited we’d have exactly the same number now. With Conway and Weimann now fit, Vyner, McCrorie and Atkinson to come there are lots of reasons to be optimistic from a solid base.

 

[spudski]

The Progress chart of form for the last 10 games for all Championship sides. 

The likes of Boro, Leeds, WBA and maybe Southampton look like they are on the upturn. 

I still feel with the strength in this league that a top 10 finish would be a fine achievement. 

Top 6 for me would be astonishing. 

Go to table and press on ' Progress' above table. 

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/9622/Stages/22080/Show/England-Championship-2023-2024

Edited October 5, 2023 by spudski

[supercidered]

I think the Championship is living up to its reputation. This is demonstrated by the concertinaed look of the top half of the table. Much of where we will or could end up will be to a certain extent out of our control. In the main, that will be injuries and how long term those injuries are.

All in all we look competitive and a division that apart from Leicester any team are there for the taking on a regular basis. 

[ExiledAjax]

22 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

I think we’re roughly where we deserve to be. It’s notable (but also a sign of resilience) that two of the four wins have come through injury time winners - no doubt Millwall and Rotherham will feel we got more points than we should there.

I’ve watched all games bar Millwall and my feelings on what was merited from each game are:

Preston - Draw, possible loss

Hull - Draw

Birmingham - Loss

Swansea - Win

WBA - Draw

Plymouth - Win

Leicester - Loss

Stoke - Win

Rotherham - Draw

That says to me we’ve broadly got what was merited each game, drawing and winning games against PNE and Rotherham we probably could have lost and drawn respectively and losing a game we should have won against Stoke.

Bizarrely, had the points come as merited we’d have exactly the same number now. With Conway and Weimann now fit, Vyner, McCrorie and Atkinson to come there are lots of reasons to be optimistic from a solid base.

I think that overall it's a block of 10 games where, for once, points return, eye-witness judgement, and the statistics all align. xG and other numbers suggest that we could be on 16 points, with one extra win but two fewer draws. So it's pretty on par.

There is potential optimism in terms of who may return, but we shouldn't discount the fact that as much as the football gods can give, they can just as easily take away. For every return of Conway or Atkinson there's a potential snapped ACL for Knight or a broken ankle for Pring. For every last minute wondergoal at Rotherham there's the Stoke debacle. It just feels like we aren't quite going to mix it with the top 6.

Edited October 5, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[luke_bristol]

Birmingham must wonder how we’re (marginally) above them, cos we were absolutely dreadful against them, they looked a class above us. Just proves what a bonkers league we’re in.

[Grey Fox]

Nigel Pearson , and the team , have done well with what we have. Should everyone stay fit , and our injured players return fit , we can improve, but the squad is thin, so further injuries and fatigue may scupper any chance of success.

Think where we might be if our current side included  a fit Alex Scott/ Tommy Conway.

That is the opportunity we blew.

[Kid in the Riot]

18 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

Think where we might be if our current side included  a fit Alex Scott/ Tommy Conway.

That is the opportunity we blew.

We are in no position to stop a player going to a Premier League club. 

[mozo]

31 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

Nigel Pearson , and the team , have done well with what we have. Should everyone stay fit , and our injured players return fit , we can improve, but the squad is thin, so further injuries and fatigue may scupper any chance of success.

Think where we might be if our current side included  a fit Alex Scott/ Tommy Conway.

That is the opportunity we blew.

I'm still fuming about Andy Cole leaving...

[tin]

15 points from a possible 30 is a reasonable return. We’ve only been outplayed once (by Birmingham) in the league so far IMO, which has surprised me. If we hadn’t had injuries to Conway, Vyner, and Naismith at various stages we would be in the top six, so I think it’s fair to expect us to kick on now two of those are fit again and Vyner shouldn’t be far away. 

We’ve got nothing to fear from the next block of 10 either. Leeds and Ipswich will be big tests, while Cardiff are on a roll. But we should beat Sheff Weds, QPR, Boro, and Huddersfield to get at least 12 points and we can get at Southampton if Martin’s still in charge. 

Edited October 5, 2023 by tin

[Davefevs]

5 hours ago, wtf said:

When we are good we are very good when we are bad we are horrid

Worst grand old Duke of York version I’ve heard!

2 hours ago, luke_bristol said:

Birmingham must wonder how we’re (marginally) above them, cos we were absolutely dreadful against them, they looked a class above us. Just proves what a bonkers league we’re in.

See, I thought they were ordinary, just that we gifted them the win. I didn’t think we were dreadful - we just gave balls away playing from the back and let them have easy chances on a couple of occasions.  They didn’t do a lot else imho. For good spells in both halves we were fine, just going through a spell of not creating.  Even down to 10-men we fashioned a great chance.

[hinsleburg]

Feels like we were a bit of luck away from being 4/5 points better off. Also feels like 23 other teams would probably be saying the same thing...

I think we are where we are on merit and there's certainly enough positives to suggest we may improve our position between now and January. It also feels like we are very light in some areas and the International Break has come at a good time to rest and aid players with injuries/niggles.

Would like to see us hit a good run of form between now and January and be in a position to 'go for it' within FFP reason. That doesn't mean try dropping an extortionate amount on Diony but continue our model of signing young, hungry players who can compete for the first team. Two of those in the right areas (which may change between now and then) could potentially define our season and whether we finish 4th-10th or 11th-22nd... 

Now we could also suffer 3 or 4 injuries over the next 6 weeks and be in a relegation battle but I hope not...

[LondonBristolian]

I think the positive is that we've performed decently despite having key players out at various points and that has to give you optimism that we  can keep ourselves solidly top half as the season goes on. All our central defenders have missed at least one game and we've largely functioned without them and we've managed okay with McCrorie, Conway and Weimann missing.

What's not quite so clear to me is how much of a ceiling for improvement there is at the team clicks together and those players (and Benarous) come back. 

My feeling is that - Conway aside - those players will help give us depth but won't transform our season. So essentially my feeling is we are well placed to finish a little higher than last season and feel confident we can maintain somewhere between 10th and 13th but I don't currently see the element that is going to take us into serious play-off contention. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

If Wells had scored that chance v Birmingham just after we had gone down to 10- might we have rallied and got a point or would the extra man and their counter attacking prowess have still told? The crowd was certainly up at that point as we were battling with 10.

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

We're about where we should be. We've lost games we could have won, we've won or drawn games that we might've lost.

The numbers are ok but not spectacular. We're taking more shots than in previous years, but fewer are on target and the xG per shot has dropped from 0.13 after 10 games last season to just 0.1 this season. I said we're taking more shots but not quite enough to compensate, and so total xG for the first 10 games has dropped from 14.7 last season to 12.3 this season. So the attack is looking weaker and less potent than at this stage last term.

However, defence is tighter. We've allowed fewer shots, and fewer on target, and they've been lower quality. All very good.

The numbers are therefore good. Right now it's looking like we'll score roughly the same number of goals than last season (maybe a couple fewer), but we should probably concede fewer. That should mean we finish with better GD and a better points total.

We're not looking top 6 quality - the only way in which we are is in goals conceded - but any prediction of finishing 7th-12th is looking very fair.

It is looking like another season of improvement, but we're not going up this time imo.

But probably worth remembering we had Conway available last season for those 10 games so it's difficult to compare the two blocks of 10.

[PFree]

Overall, pleased.

Concerned that we don’t have much muscle or size in our team, and that we always struggle against those type of teams.

Feel Max needs strong competition for his place.

Feel we need a big number 9, not for continual use but for use when needed, a Moore type for me.

Finally, keep hearing the Championship is mega-strong this year, but I’m not sure it is, perhaps Leicester aside. That said the quality gulf between us is absolutely massive and ever widening.

[Grey Fox]

3 hours ago, mozo said:

I'm still fuming about Andy Cole leaving...

The lack of a sell on clause also stings a bit.

[Grey Fox]

3 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

We are in no position to stop a player going to a Premier League club. 

But we can plan for it, with two years remaining on the contract, agreement to sell next summer was not impossible. Brighton have managed their exits to the big boys , only allowing individual players to leave once they have a replacement in place.

But there again , Brighton , want to , and have , got somewhere 

 

Now , let’s go beat Leeds

[Bristol Oil Services]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Worst grand old Duke of York version I’ve heard!

 

Think @wtf was thinking Mae West there, Dave

[Red-Robbo]

I think we have a so-so squad with a few nuggets of real quality and it only takes a few injuries to have people playing in less favoured positions and we look a bit lightweight.

But Nige has built squad resilience, bonding, morale: all of our players now look as if they are determined to fight for points and happy to be here. 

 

[Leveller]

54 minutes ago, Bristol Oil Services said:

Think @wtf was thinking Mae West there, Dave

The original is actually a poem by Longfellow:

“When she was good she was very good indeed

But when she was bad she was horrid “

(a little girl with a curl on her forehead, pronounced forrid).

 I think Mae West misquoted that as “and when I’m bad I’m better”.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Leveller

[petehinton]

42 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

I think we have a so-so squad with a few nuggets of real quality and it only takes a few injuries to have people playing in less favoured positions and we look a bit lightweight.

But Nige has built squad resilience, bonding, morale: all of our players now look as if they are determined to fight for points and happy to be here. 

 

I think any team can say that re injuries though. Unless you have an insanely bloated expensive squad, full of broadly unhappy players who aren’t playing much. Like we had under LJ & MA, really. And even then free agents and loans covered injuries thereafter!

I do think too much is focused on injuries tbh. It’s an absolute inevitability that it’ll happen over the course of the season. And if we did ever have a fully fit squad, even for just a game or two, the narrative would probably be “X can’t even get in the squad, he’s on loads of money, the squads too big”

Im personally really happy with the balance we have. Squad is by far the most balanced with proper strength in depth that we’ve had for many many years. And it actually has some value in it too…

Maybe riding our luck with GKs, but who knows how Bajic would be if required to properly rise to the challenge. Could be a revelation. Getting McCrorie and Atkinson back will be huge too, especially the former. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Squad feels a bit thin although the return of Conway and Weimann is timely. Albeit Conway is just working his way back.

Outfield- if we are by original position, fortunately we have players who can play in multiple in some cases.

Dickie

Pring, Roberts

James, Naismith, Williams, Knight, Gardner-Hickman, King

Sykes, Cornick

Bell, Mehmeti

Conway, Wells, Weimann

16 outfield players is too low albeit some versatility. As players return the situation eases but...

Not including youth who have just pushed through but those who have been around at least a while.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

Squad is thin, in many respects purposely so, because of budget.  It’s made to look thinner by being allowed 9 subs.  Last season we’d have been leaving Nelson out and one other.

[mozo]

6 hours ago, hinsleburg said:

Feels like we were a bit of luck away from being 4/5 points better off. Also feels like 23 other teams would probably be saying the same thing...

I think that's a really good point. It's easy for us to focus on our own ifs, buts and maybes but every team will have their own.

For example, Rotherham fans will say that if Blackett didn't do his hamstring, the result would have been different last night.

Ultimately 10 games gives us a good progress check and 15 points is locked in.

[cityexile]

Done alright.

Copied this from something I saw which does put it a little in to perspective however…

 

The table the same day last year

Most teams had played 11/12 games, Coventry had played 9

Sheff Utd were top - finished 2nd

Norwich were 2nd - didn’t make playoffs (13th)

Reading were 3rd - Relegated (albeit after pts deduction)

QPR were 4th - Almost relegated

Burnley were 5th - Champions

Swansea were 6th - Finished 10th

The play off sides were:

8th (Sunderland)

9th (Luton)

18th (Boro)

24th (Coventry)

None of the Bottom 3 at the time got relegated. One of them made the playoff final (Cov) and the another nearly snuck in to the playoffs (WBA)

The promotion, playoffs and relegation is not decided in October

Still not time to get too worried or excited about what may come by end of the season

Unless you’re a Sheff Wed fan

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, cityexile said:

Done alright.

Copied this from something I saw which does put it a little in to perspective however…

 

The table the same day last year

Most teams had played 11/12 games, Coventry had played 9

Sheff Utd were top - finished 2nd

Norwich were 2nd - didn’t make playoffs (13th)

Reading were 3rd - Relegated (albeit after pts deduction)

QPR were 4th - Almost relegated

Burnley were 5th - Champions

Swansea were 6th - Finished 10th

The play off sides were:

8th (Sunderland)

9th (Luton)

18th (Boro)

24th (Coventry)

None of the Bottom 3 at the time got relegated. One of them made the playoff final (Cov) and the another nearly snuck in to the playoffs (WBA)

The promotion, playoffs and relegation is not decided in October

Still not time to get too worried or excited about what may come by end of the season

Unless you’re a Sheff Wed fan

Surely Leicester top 2 or even Champions looks fairly nailed on too?

[mozo]

4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Surely Leicester top 2 or even Champions looks fairly nailed on too?

I suppose in comparison, Leicester could be the Shef United.

Ipswich could be the Norwich. 

Boro could be the... Boro.

Edited October 5, 2023 by mozo

[redkev]

On 04/10/2023 at 23:07, watkins1983 said:

Most well drilled team we have had for a while IMO . Knight settling in well in midfield and we have cover in key positions we didn’t have last year (king playing centre back for example)

Just don’t look good enough in the final third for me. That will be the difference.

Good start to season for me

 

Might be different if we can firstly keep TC fit and secondly just keep TC , however a lot to chuck on a player so young , can’t knock nahki or Harry’s efforts but they don’t look overly threatening in front of goal , 

[redkev]

On 05/10/2023 at 09:11, spudski said:

The Progress chart of form for the last 10 games for all Championship sides. 

The likes of Boro, Leeds, WBA and maybe Southampton look like they are on the upturn. 

I still feel with the strength in this league that a top 10 finish would be a fine achievement. 

Top 6 for me would be astonishing. 

Go to table and press on ' Progress' above table. 

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/9622/Stages/22080/Show/England-Championship-2023-2024

Agree about Boro , Leeds WBA on the upturn and will get stronger as the season goes on , Southampton got the look of a win 4-0 one week lose 4-0 next week , as for us looking on the optimistic side we have decent players coming back which will deffo improve us , but we need to be lucky with injuries it seems like as soon as we get 1 or 2 back we lose 1 .  Also on a serious note we really need to have more consistency not just us but with refereee decisions I know all teams of poor decisions against them but we really seem to have no luck at all

[Super]

On 05/10/2023 at 10:24, tin said:

15 points from a possible 30 is a reasonable return. We’ve only been outplayed once (by Birmingham) in the league so far IMO, which has surprised me. If we hadn’t had injuries to Conway, Vyner, and Naismith at various stages we would be in the top six, so I think it’s fair to expect us to kick on now two of those are fit again and Vyner shouldn’t be far away. 

We’ve got nothing to fear from the next block of 10 either. Leeds and Ipswich will be big tests, while Cardiff are on a roll. But we should beat Sheff Weds, QPR, Boro, and Huddersfield to get at least 12 points and we can get at Southampton if Martin’s still in charge. 

Think Leicester outplayed us as well.