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Poll: Does Pearson Deserve a 24 Month Contract Extension


MelksRed

Pearson 24 Month Contract Extension  

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I've been trying to think where we are and how we got here, while all the time struggling with almost a complete information black out from the top end of the Club.

Firstly, I do wonder if Steve & Jon Lansdown are a little touchy about comments from the Socials. TBF some of the abuse online in general (not just in this respect) is ridiculous . I would be a bit touchy, but he/they are from a background where they are not used to being questioned so much, let alone criticised . But that does not excuse the complete radio silence .

Secondly, with Nige's problems still undiagnosed I wonder if they are hesitating about giving a contract to someone who could be missing for a long spell. But again , that doesn't excuse not keeping parties informed, which judging by NP's comments isn't the case.

Does he expect more ? If Lansdown compares City with the Bears , that's blatantly stupid, just as most comparisons are. This last stage, when Pearson took over, started from an absolute shitshow. Bulky unbalanced squad , high wage bill, high earners throughout and a backroom that wasn't fit for purpose.
Now where I will give SL credit is giving Pearson the job in the first place. Didn't expect it, I didn't think that Steve was confident enough or sure enough in himself to employ a big strong character. He deserves credit for that, but I would love to know that process or the thinking behind it.

Two and a half years later, backroom, medical, recruitment and first team looking better and with more direction than it's had for years I can't believe we are having this conversation while sitting 8th during a bit of an injury crisis.
Then add how Pearson has integrated the younger players, not just getting them in for cameos, but easing them in, in a way that allows them to make a real first team claim. 

If the owner was looking at the likes of Luton and Brentford with a little jealousy, that's fine, I think we all do to some extent. If, through complete lack of understanding he thinks, oh they've done it we SHOULD do it , that's pathetic .

With the hard work done, while not only keeping us in the Championship but cutting the wage bill and giving the whole Club a new direction and cohesion . I think that whether Pearson's problem means he can't be so involved hands on or not, he should get at least a year. It has never been his taking of training that has given us a new sense of purpose and focus, it has been his organisational skills, his man management and his getting the right team around him. 
He has had some backing, but we can only wonder where we could be if the riches wasted previously were available now. He has worked on a budget and with everyone fit I think we are good enough to be around 6th place. If Lansdown thinks there is someone guaranteed to come in and do that straight away, he's deluded.

I try and see things from both sides, not always easy. Lansdown has done brilliantly for the Club over the years, but I would like to think he could go back, examine the mistakes and realise he, or the people he has employed previously are culpable . He has lost a lot of good faith with fans that he could easily win back. New contract, better comms and take Jons crayons away. 

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Finally get a manager who is capable of big things with the right backing. We still let decent players go for big money and then don't reinvest it in the squad. I can understand why Nigel is peeved, he's being expected to work miracles. If we spend a little I back Nigel however to get us in the Prem where we will make the money back 10 fold... TV rights, sponsorship, sellout crowds and even a parachute payment if we come back down. 

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@1960maaan I get the impression that there is no contract extension regardless of his health.  I think he could be running up mountains, fighting wolves, burying ostrich heads in the sand…and there’ll be no contract.

He’s seeing his contract through…unless relieved of his duties beforehand.

I hope I’m wrong, but I feel like it’s just a matter of time.

The cynic in me says if it wasn’t for the fact we have Ipswich followed by Cardiff, we’d have a new manager in place, but these are two games for the hierarchy to “sink Nige”.  SL probably though Robins would launch the first damage.

Its an awful way for me to think, wins and draws probably keep him on life-support, but that’s how it feels to me.

Bloody depressing state of affairs in the OTIB world of speculation - but what are we supposed to think / speculate after several comms this season from Nige, and also PA on SOTC and SL on Guernsey Radio, following previous messaging from Tins - Plan A and Plan B, and SL “what football makes it can spend”.

Arghhhhhhh!

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On 22/10/2023 at 08:15, ExiledAjax said:

It's too nuanced for such a binary (although @MelksRed has attempted to make it trinary) question.

I vote "No" simply because a manager shouldn't be appointed/extended on the basis of "deserving" something based on past performance. That's a result based approach that assumes that past performance will inevitably be repeated or improved upon, despite the circumstances being different.

The decision should be made based on whether extending him increases our chances of success under future conditions. I'm not sure it does, especially as he seems pissed off again. I don't think it would decrease the chances though, hence I am not calling for him to be sacked or pushed out.

Honestly I'm apathetic. If he stays then there's some upsides definitely, equally him leaving would present opportunity.

Ps. It's not even a year since 56% on here voted to sack him so...

 

How else are we to determine other than past performance?

His past performance at Bristol City is he has stabilized the club in the championship, whilst operating under an ever restrictive budget. when this happens usually we get relegated (Osman/ Jordan & McInnes/ SO'D).  I would also argue no manager has had to rely on youth as much since Terry Cooper and has developed players which has raised us £35 million, massively helping with our FFP. Not including the development and  improvements in O'Leary, Vyner, Pring, Bell Conway from the Academy alone. 

Another past performance that we need to consider when deciding to keep or sack Nige is SL's track record in appointing managers. Since Lansdown became majority shareholder in the late 90's we have had 11 permanent managers (10 not including Nige)- Pulis, Wlson, Tinnion, Gary Johnson, Coppell, Millen, McInnes, o'driscoll, Cotterill, Lee Johnson, Holden.

Of that list only Gary J & Cotterill can  be considered successful appointments. Wilson & Lee Johnson had some good times but in comparison to the resources they had given to them & the objectives they had have to be considered failures. Excluding Nige, that's an 20% success rate. 

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1 minute ago, Gol said:

How else are we to determine other than past performance?

It's about applying past performance to a prediction of future performance.

Not just blindly saying "yep good job done there, here's the new contract". 

Past performance is measured against one set of criteria, future performance against another. That's the nuance.

5 minutes ago, Gol said:

has developed players which has raised us £35 million

And Johnson sold Webster, Reid, Kelly, Bryan and Flint for more than that combined.

And plenty of managers could have turned a profit on a generational talent like Scott. I don't buy this as a strength the achievement of those sales figures as something unique to Pearson.

2 minutes ago, Gol said:

Excluding Nige, that's an 20% success rate. 

How does that compare to other owners and other clubs? In isolation it's meaningless.

The measure of a managers success is hugely dependent on when and how they leave. Cotterill was successful of course, but had he stayed we'd have likely been relegated. Johnson Sr - again some certain success but sacked on a downward trajectory. It is therefore arguable that both are remembered as successful because they were sacked before they played out their destiny.

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40 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@1960maaan I get the impression that there is no contract extension regardless of his health.  I think he could be running up mountains, fighting wolves, burying ostrich heads in the sand…and there’ll be no contract.

He’s seeing his contract through…unless relieved of his duties beforehand.

I hope I’m wrong, but I feel like it’s just a matter of time.

The cynic in me says if it wasn’t for the fact we have Ipswich followed by Cardiff, we’d have a new manager in place, but these are two games for the hierarchy to “sink Nige”.  SL probably though Robins would launch the first damage.

Its an awful way for me to think, wins and draws probably keep him on life-support, but that’s how it feels to me.

Bloody depressing state of affairs in the OTIB world of speculation - but what are we supposed to think / speculate after several comms this season from Nige, and also PA on SOTC and SL on Guernsey Radio, following previous messaging from Tins - Plan A and Plan B, and SL “what football makes it can spend”.

Arghhhhhhh!

I think you paint the general mood for the vast vast majority spot on there Dave 👍🏻
 

Ive only just picked up you were on Sound Of City as I don’t tend to listen since GT departed, so I listened on catch up

Bloody well said mate , and with a great calm explained delivery .  

Its actually really hard to be calm , concise and explain , all in a tiny amount of time when you have so many thoughts and points in your head , particularly when it’s something important

Ive been on , tried it and it’s actually really difficult to deliver and come across as intelligently and as well as you did , and do

Hats off , It thought you smashed some incredibly important points in the limited time. 

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17 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's about applying past performance to a prediction of future performance.

Not just blindly saying "yep good job done there, here's the new contract". 

Past performance is measured against one set of criteria, future performance against another. That's the nuance.

And Johnson sold Webster, Reid, Kelly, Bryan and Flint for more than that combined.

And plenty of managers could have turned a profit on a generational talent like Scott. I don't buy this as a strength the achievement of those sales figures as something unique to Pearson.

How does that compare to other owners and other clubs? In isolation it's meaningless.

The measure of a managers success is hugely dependent on when and how they leave. Cotterill was successful of course, but had he stayed we'd have likely been relegated. Johnson Sr - again some certain success but sacked on a downward trajectory. It is therefore arguable that both are remembered as successful because they were sacked before they played out their destiny.

Jeeez… in your earlier post you said that whilst voting ‘no’ you were apathetic about it and suggested that there would definitely be some positives if Nige stayed.. what positives were you referring to?

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10 minutes ago, FNQ said:

Jeeez… in your earlier post you said that whilst voting ‘no’ you were apathetic about it and suggested that there would definitely be some positives if Nige stayed.. what positives were you referring to?

Continuity of process, less disruption and upheaval, continuity of the stability and culture that I'm told hangs on his presence. All of those can be positive.

Others have more than set out his virtues so you can read those posts if you like.

But if there's a feeling that someone else can bring benefits greater than those or that compensate for the lack of them, then that's fine.

I'm apathetic about the outcome, but not about the process.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

@1960maaan I get the impression that there is no contract extension regardless of his health.  I think he could be running up mountains, fighting wolves, burying ostrich heads in the sand…and there’ll be no contract.

He’s seeing his contract through…unless relieved of his duties beforehand.

I hope I’m wrong, but I feel like it’s just a matter of time.

The cynic in me says if it wasn’t for the fact we have Ipswich followed by Cardiff, we’d have a new manager in place, but these are two games for the hierarchy to “sink Nige”.  SL probably though Robins would launch the first damage.

Its an awful way for me to think, wins and draws probably keep him on life-support, but that’s how it feels to me.

Bloody depressing state of affairs in the OTIB world of speculation - but what are we supposed to think / speculate after several comms this season from Nige, and also PA on SOTC and SL on Guernsey Radio, following previous messaging from Tins - Plan A and Plan B, and SL “what football makes it can spend”.

Arghhhhhhh!

I can't say I feel that much different than you, trying to get my head around what's going on and why.
I have to say a lot of the fight and anger went out of me around the time Lansdown said Johnson would be here as long as I want him. Kind of felt he would keep him on inspite of results and almost to spite those that had had enough. 
 Really struggling to find the logic in the situation . Then it did stop a few protests and dissenting voices, now it feels like people will turn away and they could start to lose support. 
Get someone in to firefight, get in a better position than we've been in for years and then coast into what ?
There are no guarantees a new man could even get as much out of the team as Nige, and of course there could be initial resentment towards a new man from many sides. 

Just as there seems light at the end of the tunnel ( I wont do my usual HMHB bit here ) , the owner potentially stops any momentum building. 
 

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3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's about applying past performance to a prediction of future performance.

Not just blindly saying "yep good job done there, here's the new contract". 

Past performance is measured against one set of criteria, future performance against another. That's the nuance.

And Johnson sold Webster, Reid, Kelly, Bryan and Flint for more than that combined.

And plenty of managers could have turned a profit on a generational talent like Scott. I don't buy this as a strength the achievement of those sales figures as something unique to Pearson.

How does that compare to other owners and other clubs? In isolation it's meaningless.

The measure of a managers success is hugely dependent on when and how they leave. Cotterill was successful of course, but had he stayed we'd have likely been relegated. Johnson Sr - again some certain success but sacked on a downward trajectory. It is therefore arguable that both are remembered as successful because they were sacked before they played out their destiny.

 

Ultimately it comes down to whether you think he has earned the right to try and progress us further. I believe he has. Why do you think he has not?

Johnson also spent over 50 million and signed 50+ players, he also inherited a better squad including Flint Bryan and Kodjia which allowed his funding. Not really a valid comparison. Deserves credit for Webster, Reid, Kelly and Brownhill thats it 

its not meaningless it shows based on past performance theres an 80% likelihood the next appoint will be the wrong one

You are correct 99%of manager end by being sacked due to not  meeting current targets, IMO you have to judge what they did threw their reign. GJ and Cotterill were brought in to get us in the Champ they did. Wilson and Lee johnson were brought in to get us promoted they did not. Nige was brought in to steady the ship and keep us in the Champ whilst reducing costs, he’s done that .
 

We are this season on the whole showing improvement in terms of league position and performance it is not a downward trajectory. If we were I could understand your logic

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Gol said:

Ultimately it comes down to whether you think he has earned the right to try and progress us further. I believe he has. Why do you think he has not?

Because I don't think it does come down solely to whether he has "earned" anything at all.

I've gone through promotion and appraisal processes at work, I'm sure loads of us have done so on both sides of the table. 

It's never just about what you have done in the past, it's always equally about what you will do in your next role or in the next year.

That's the key question. Is he the best man to take us forward to the next level? He doesn't get the opportunity to do that based solely on past achievements, it also includes an assessment of his likelihood to achieve in the future.

To do otherwise is to rest on the laurels of the past. It's poor.

That's all I am arguing for - a process that considers the future in addition to the past. I don't think that spits out the conclusion that Pearson must automatically be signed up for 2 more years. Others do, and that is fine.

I don't want him sacked, and I'd be fine if he stays until 2045 if that is the decision made. I am just arguing for a process.

11 minutes ago, Gol said:

Johnson also spent over 50 million and signed 50+ players, he also inherited a better squad including Flint Bryan and Kodjia which allowed his funding. Not really a valid comparison. Deserves credit for Webster, Reid, Kelly and Brownhill thats it 

By that logic Pearson inherited Scott and Semenyo from Johnson. So what? We're not giving him their credit either? On that basis Pearson has brought in, developed, and sold the square root of **** all - but I assume that's not the argument you're making?

Look, comparing these two is pointless really, but you at least need to be consistent.

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5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Continuity of process, less disruption and upheaval, continuity of the stability and culture that I'm told hangs on his presence. All of those can be positive.

Others have more than set out his virtues so you can read those posts if you like.

But if there's a feeling that someone else can bring benefits greater than those or that compensate for the lack of them, then that's fine.

I'm apathetic about the outcome, but not about the process.

You are working hard to claim to be apathetic about the outcome ....but you clearly aren’t 

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2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Because I don't think it does come down solely to whether he has "earned" anything at all.

I've gone through promotion and appraisal processes at work, I'm sure loads of us have done so on both sides of the table. 

It's never just about what you have done in the past, it's always equally about what you will do in your next role or in the next year.

That's the key question. Is he the best man to take us forward to the next level? He doesn't get the opportunity to do that based solely on past achievements, it also includes an assessment of his likelihood to achieve in the future.

To do otherwise is to rest on the laurels of the past. It's poor.

That's all I am arguing for - a process that considers the future in addition to the past. I don't think that spits out the conclusion that Pearson must automatically be signed up for 2 more years. Others do, and that is fine.

I don't want him sacked, and I'd be fine if he stays until 2045 if that is the decision made. I am just arguing for a process.

By that logic Pearson inherited Scott and Semenyo from Johnson. So what? We're not giving him their credit either? On that basis Pearson has brought in, developed, and sold the square root of **** all - but I assume that's not the argument you're making?

Look, comparing these two is pointless really, but you at least need to be consistent.

We all have gone through promotions at work and that is a poor analogy for this situation.  If you were looking for a work analogy it is you are you in the role and are you achieving your targets you are kept on in most competent companies you will keep the job even if you are on a temporary contract.

With regards to future prospects, we are not in a downward spiral and he is showing evidence that he can take us to the next level. We are 1 point off the play-offs and have the 3rd best defence in the league.
 

what there is no evidence of, is what you are arguing for that there is  a  defined process in picking a manager.

I was consistent, its not my issue if you are (very poorly I might add) trying to twist what I said.  

I gave Johnson credit for developing Kelly and Reid who were at the club before Johnson, in the same way Semenyo and Scott were here before Pearson. they are the managers who developed them into established players at this level and above and generated a profit for us.

Using your twisted logic Do you think Semenyo was worth 10million in 2020? Do you think Scott was worth £25m in 2020?
 

Do you not think O’Leary, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring, Sykes, Bell, and Conway have improved under Nige’s tenure?

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31 minutes ago, Gol said:

We all have gone through promotions at work and that is a poor analogy for this situation.  If you were looking for a work analogy it is you are you in the role and are you achieving your targets you are kept on in most competent companies you will keep the job even if you are on a temporary contract.

In my opinion it's not the same job. The first contract, the one that's ending now, that's been about a rebuild. The next contract, from 2023/24 onwards, that's about going to the next level, new criteria. It's a new job.

31 minutes ago, Gol said:

With regards to future prospects, we are not in a downward spiral and he is showing evidence that he can take us to the next level. We are 1 point off the play-offs and have the 3rd best defence in the league.

I don't care where we are in the league in October or how many points we are from 6th or 24th. It means absolutely bugger all.

31 minutes ago, Gol said:

I was consistent, its not my issue if you are (very poorly I might add) trying to twist what I said.  

I gave Johnson credit for developing Kelly and Reid who were at the club before Johnson, in the same way Semenyo and Scott were here before Pearson. they are the managers who developed them into established players at this level and above and generated a profit for us.

Using your twisted logic Do you think Semenyo was worth 10million in 2020? Do you think Scott was worth £25m in 2020?

I was not trying to twist your logic, I was testing it. Sorry it it came across otherwise. Thank you for clarifying your position. 

31 minutes ago, Gol said:

Do you not think O’Leary, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring, Sykes, Bell, and Conway have improved under Nige’s tenure?

Of course they have. Have we sold any of them yet? No. 

Look, I am really ******* tired of trying to politely and reasonably state a position that is different to that taken by many people on here. I think I've been pretty consistent with my views on Pearson and my views on how we should approach the decision about who should manage us in the next managerial contract cycle. Honestly just read my posts and it's all there.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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9 hours ago, Sheltons Army said:

I think you paint the general mood for the vast vast majority spot on there Dave 👍🏻
 

Ive only just picked up you were on Sound Of City as I don’t tend to listen since GT departed, so I listened on catch up

Bloody well said mate , and with a great calm explained delivery .  

Its actually really hard to be calm , concise and explain , all in a tiny amount of time when you have so many thoughts and points in your head , particularly when it’s something important

Ive been on , tried it and it’s actually really difficult to deliver and come across as intelligently and as well as you did , and do

Hats off , It thought you smashed some incredibly important points in the limited time. 

Thanks Mate.

I just tried to be honest about my thoughts, and try to get across some points made by others on here.

I’m a bit more hopeful this evening that he might remain for a bit longer at least.

Apologies to @Snufflelufagus and @REDOXO for the missed birthday shouts.

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33 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Thanks Mate.

I just tried to be honest about my thoughts, and try to get across some points made by others on here.

I’m a bit more hopeful this evening that he might remain for a bit longer at least.

Apologies to @Snufflelufagus and @REDOXO for the missed birthday shouts.

I wasn’t serious fella! But thanks for the thought. 😝 However I will raise a glass to the missed opportunity on Friday. My actual birthday!

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I do worry a little about his overall health, he's not getting any younger the rigours of overseeing a club like ours must take it out of you. I wonder if that is the reason behind the club's reluctance to renew his contract, of course, I doubt they would admit that was the reason.

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On 24/10/2023 at 11:26, Davefevs said:

@1960maaan I get the impression that there is no contract extension regardless of his health.  I think he could be running up mountains, fighting wolves, burying ostrich heads in the sand…and there’ll be no contract.

He’s seeing his contract through…unless relieved of his duties beforehand.

I hope I’m wrong, but I feel like it’s just a matter of time.

The cynic in me says if it wasn’t for the fact we have Ipswich followed by Cardiff, we’d have a new manager in place, but these are two games for the hierarchy to “sink Nige”.  SL probably though Robins would launch the first damage.

Its an awful way for me to think, wins and draws probably keep him on life-support, but that’s how it feels to me.

Bloody depressing state of affairs in the OTIB world of speculation - but what are we supposed to think / speculate after several comms this season from Nige, and also PA on SOTC and SL on Guernsey Radio, following previous messaging from Tins - Plan A and Plan B, and SL “what football makes it can spend”.

Arghhhhhhh!

Coventry not pulling up trees after all their investment in the summer either!

SL probably hoping that Mr Robins gets the boot there so that he can then finally get “his man”……..can so see this happening.

As you say @Davefevs - such a sad state of affairs……

The silence from the Board is deafening and if you ask me, tells us everything we need to know re their views on Nige.

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53 minutes ago, Loosey Boy said:

Coventry not pulling up trees after all their investment in the summer either!

SL probably hoping that Mr Robins gets the boot there so that he can then finally get “his man”……..can so see this happening.

As you say @Davefevs - such a sad state of affairs……

The silence from the Board is deafening and if you ask me, tells us everything we need to know re their views on Nige.

Next three up-

Cardiff

Sheffield Wednesday

QPR

Any two defeats from those three & Nigel is gone.

Sobering thought!

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1 hour ago, Son of Fred said:

Next three up-

Cardiff

Sheffield Wednesday

QPR

Any two defeats from those three & Nigel is gone.

Sobering thought!

Being massively cynical I think he might be gone at the international break (if not even as soon as Sunday).  Wouldn’t put it past the “hierarchy” to see Sheff Wed and QPR as easy 6 points and therefore anything less is sacking material.  We of course know nothing is guaranteed, least of all with a threadbare squad / team.  Those games in some respects will be harder than normal due to expectation.

Sobering indeed.

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At the risk of starting a late pile on - I'm not sure why everyone is so positive.

I understand the challenges of reducing wages and forced selling but we are not alone here.

For me I want to be entertained at home - I'm sober enough to realise that even if we flirt with play offs, we would probably never be capable of sustaining a push.

So what do we get at home?

Only once this season (home and away) have we scored in both halves - equal worst in the division. There are still many boring halves.

2 clean sheets at home is OK

1.14 points per game at home isn't!

We've only won twice at home!

We still have terrible halves of dull football with little innovation where it feels that we can't change tactics.

I still can't easily forget all the last minute goals conceded last season - I realise that this is largely resolved, but did NP coach us out of this, or buy it with Dickie & Knight?

Does he really know his best team yet - let's not forget Nahki was sidelined for ages and yet most would now admit his pressing and support play is integral to our success. Was this coaching or simply NP running out of alternatives?

How are some players unable to impact a game consistently - HNM, AW, SB, GW etc

I appreciate NP's so much better that what we have had recently, but  also that is a low benchmark.

Can we do better with a young innovate manager (who doesn't spout LJ bollocks) - someone like Ipswich found?

I think NP needs to prove he can sustain a top half challenge - there is little risk he will be poached right now - make him earn it. And if he can do this while playing entertaining football I'll be joining the rest of you asking for an extension - but not yet!

 

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I wouldn’t extend based on 2 things 

1) I know people that work around him and he’s a ticking time bomb. I won’t say more than that. If you know you know.
 

2) It is not that hard to look around the world and find a more progressive hungry coach who isn’t so jaded and plays more exciting football. Eg Bodo Glimt manger Knutson or Kevin Muscat who was Postocoglu’s #2 in Yokohama.

Postocoglu did a madness at Celtic (the squad he inherited was shite and he overhauled it on tight budget and won at same time) and now doing same at Spurs …and he was completely getable for City before Celtic… An Aussie manger in Japan.

No doubts we would be in top 6 every year if he was in charge regardless of budget. I actually think if he was appointed at City when he was at Celtic we’d be in Prem. 

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Nigel and his team have been the only stability this club has had the work he has done is remarkable given the constraints put on him and the complete lack of leadership from above he must really care about the club as no one can blame pearson for thinking sod this and walking.

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