Play-off Numbers (not going to happen) are satisfyingly round

[W-S-M Seagull]

Just now, Robbored said:

Rather that ‘tin pot’ I’d call it wishful thinking.

I’m happy enough where we are and who can say that had Nige stayed that we wouldn’t be in a similar position? We’ll never know.

It looks as if Mannings methods (whatever they are) are starting to effect results and being in with a shout with roughly a third of the season left is where I hoped we be.

I did say "putting aside the management of the club" 

Fair enough you're happy. I'm disappointed that we've dropped points in the games I've mentioned which would see us be better than 4 points off. It's why were referred to as "little old Bristol City" because to the outside we come across as happy to accept mediocrity. 

I did also include games in which Nigel was manager! 

It was only two games ago that we went 6 games without a win (which has also cost us big time) but these two wins in a row and the complete performance against Soton has given me a glimmer of hope. 

 

 

 

[cityexile]

Me, one week ago, “there is always one team that loses form and crashes from midtable in to the relegation battle. Looking like it could be us...”

Me, now “there is always one team that comes from midtable, has a great run and makes the play offs...”

 

[Robbored]

59 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I did say "putting aside the management of the club" 

Fair enough you're happy. I'm disappointed that we've dropped points in the games I've mentioned which would see us be better than 4 points off. It's why were referred to as "little old Bristol City" because to the outside we come across as happy to accept mediocrity. 

It was only two games ago that we went 6 games without a win (which has also cost us big time) but these two wins in a row and the complete performance against Soton has given me a glimmer of hope. 

Reminds me of the ‘Serenity prayer’ - “accept the the things you cannot change”…….……..

We are where we are.

The performances against Boro and S’ton has given us all a glimmer of hope Seagull.

[Dr Balls]

Looking at the table, forget PPG and just divide the season. We are 2/3 of the way through. 6th place currently has 48 points. The likely number of points for 6th at the end of the season will be around 72. We are currently 4 points behind 6th place and need 28 points from 14 games to achieve 72 points. 2 points per game is always a standard target for promotion I.e. win half your games, draw half your games, so it’s not an unreasonable target to achieve, ignoring what all other clubs are doing.

If you get into the playoffs achieving less than 2 points per game in the last few games, your chances of winning them and getting promoted are pretty slim anyway, because form really matters more than what you have done for the rest of the season just for those 3 playoff games.

As per usual in the Championship, it’s incredibly tight for that last playoff spot. 1 point separates 6th to 10th. We are a further 3 points behind. Win on Saturday and things are likely to get a bit tighter again because not all 5 clubs above us are likely to win this weekend.

I won’t get carried away until we go on a continued run form (not justbb be winning 2 games well after a 6 game winless streak) and actually get to 6th in the table. The knack is to time your run-in perfectly to have it in your own hands to be 6th on the final day of the season. If we are in that position in 13 games time, then I might believe - but knowing City we would still probably blow it!

[mozo]

5 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Looking at the table, forget PPG and just divide the season. We are 2/3 of the way through. 6th place currently has 48 points. The likely number of points for 6th at the end of the season will be around 72. We are currently 4 points behind 6th place and need 28 points from 14 games to achieve 72 points. 2 points per game is always a standard target for promotion I.e. win half your games, draw half your games, so it’s not an unreasonable target to achieve, ignoring what all other clubs are doing.

If you get into the playoffs achieving less than 2 points per game in the last few games, your chances of winning them and getting promoted are pretty slim anyway, because form really matters more than what you have done for the rest of the season just for those 3 playoff games.

As per usual in the Championship, it’s incredibly tight for that last playoff spot. 1 point separates 6th to 10th. We are a further 3 points behind. Win on Saturday and things are likely to get a bit tighter again because not all 5 clubs above us are likely to win this weekend.

I won’t get carried away until we go on a continued run form (not justbb be winning 2 games well after a 6 game winless streak) and actually get to 6th in the table. The knack is to time your run-in perfectly to have it in your own hands to be 6th on the final day of the season. If we are in that position in 13 games time, then I might believe - but knowing City we would still probably blow it!

If you ask me now if I think we can win 7 or even 8 more games this season, I'd say no.

If we beat QPR, I'll say probably not.

If we beat QPR and SW, with Cardiff up next...

Edited February 15 by mozo

[Grey Fox]

4 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

Are we safe from relegation ? 

Two more wins

[Grey Fox]

I agree we probably won’t make the playoffs, however all of these calculations are based on what clubs have done “so far” this season, and not on the unknown of what they “will do” over the remaining matches. Remember when Roy Keane’s Sunderland went from bottom to top over half a season, what would their stats calculation have looked like at the halfway point?

The only certainty in my mind that really boils my pee, is that had we retained Alex Scott for one further season, we would have more points than we do, would be better placed to make the playoffs, and should we have (for once) actually won through, more money in the bank than what we received from the mighty Bournemouth & Boscombe .

At least we now have a run in to have some fun with COYRS ️

[transfer reader]

1 hour ago, cityexile said:

And not lost to Norwich. 3 more points there and less for them.

I imagine every team has ‘what ifs’ across a season, but just shows the thin lines. I think more objectively it’s home defeats to the likes of Stoke and Millwall that sink us.

We could well end up as Southampton's 'what if'

[Grey Fox]

Every one has “what ifs”

[Open End Numb Legs]

The maths per game etc gives me a headache but what I would say is that with 8 points covering 9 teams around us (from Cov down), there is plenty of potential for those teams to take points off each other which should make any climb up the table a little bit easier.

[Open End Numb Legs]

Just now, Grey Fox said:

Every one has “what ifs”

You can get cream for it though.

[Grey Fox]

1 minute ago, Open End Numb Legs said:

You can get cream for it though.

There’s the rub

[bcfc01]

Just looking at current and past 8 games PPG, I would think 47 points would be safe from relegation this season and 74 points for 6th place.

The teams above us have a few games where they are playing each other in the next 3 games and Hulls game in hand is Southampton away. Also to note that of the top 11, only Coventry, Norwich, and PNE (won 3 on the trot) are currently out performing their PPG over the last 8 games in relation to their season form. Obviously, that can change given the fixtures.

We need 6+ points in the next three just to keep in touch short term - not relevant which games we win.

For me, its either Norwich or PNE for 6th place, hopefully we can get a top 10 finish which would be excellent imo.

Table calculator here if anyone is interested (give it a few seconds to fully load);

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

 

[Tim Monaghan]

4 hours ago, elhombrecito said:

All this maths is sucking any joy out of a possible playoff push!

Let's just enjoy each game as it comes...

I'm the same when it comes to F1. I used to love the thrill of a potential push, but now they state on lap 5 that's its mathematically impossible for x to catch y. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[mozo]

9 minutes ago, Tim Monaghan said:

I'm the same when it comes to F1. I used to love the thrill of a potential push, but now they state on lap 5 that's its mathematically impossible for x to catch y. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

What's the cricket version? Winviz?

City are at about 12% likely to finish 6th.

[ExiledAjax]

47 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Win on Saturday and things are likely to get a bit tighter again because not all 5 clubs above us are likely to win this weekend.

You only need one of Norwich, Coventry, Hull or Preston to win on Saturday and it becomes impossible for us to be any closer, in terms of the raw points gap, to 6th place than we currently are.

[mozo]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

You only need one of Norwich, Coventry, Hull or Preston to win on Saturday and it becomes impossible for us to be any closer, in terms of the raw points gap, to 6th place than we currently are.

They're all playing bottom half teams too

[Robbored]

58 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

Every one has “what ifs”

Oh course - it’s a huge part of being a football fan regardless of who you support - I’m like it every season.

The old saying that you can change everything in your life except your football club is so true.

[Dr Balls]

27 minutes ago, mozo said:

What's the cricket version? Winviz?

City are at about 12% likely to finish 6th.

Time to go “Bazball” then. Tbh Tuesday’s 3rd goal was a case of just going hard and backing ourselves, plus some really good play from the 3 subs. Sounds pretty close to “Bazball”!

[Dr Balls]

6 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Oh course - it’s a huge part of being a football fan regardless of who you support - I’m like it every season.

The old saying that you can change everything in your life except your football club is so true.

I think there are a large number of “plastic glory hunters” out there for whom that last statement isn’t true. Plus those who now support whoever there favourite player is playing for. 

[22A]

2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

Last season is definitely wrong. 4th didn't even get 77 points and 6th was 69 points

Thanks for pointing this out. Middlesbrough 4th - 75 pts and Sunderland 6th - 69 pts.

[Grey Fox]

2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

Last season is definitely wrong. 4th didn't even get 77 points and 6th was 69 points

Last season wasn’t wrong, it was right for that season. Last season proved it is statistics that are wrong. 
 

Remember , if 20%of road accidents are caused by drunk drivers, statistically banning the sober ones would be sensible

[Robbored]

6 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

I think there are a large number of “plastic glory hunters” out there for whom that last statement isn’t true. Plus those who now support whoever there favourite player is playing for. 

That certainly doesn’t apply to me or anyone that I go to AG with or anyone that sit around me.

I had a nice surprise in the supermarket earlier. Two young brothers with their dad aged around 8 -10 both wearing City shirts. Usually lads or teenagers are wearing PL club shirts.

I have them the thumbs up and and asked if they’d seen City beat S’ton Tuesday eve on tv - dad laughed and said they were both in bed!

[TonyTonyTony]

For me, its about finishing the season strong, which will set us up for a real go next year. That's more realistic.

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

You only need one of Norwich, Coventry, Hull or Preston to win on Saturday and it becomes impossible for us to be any closer, in terms of the raw points gap, to 6th place than we currently are.

But that's the thing, you don't have to get the points back on everyone all at once. 
In reality we have a tough task of getting 5 more points that the 6 teams above us, in the space of 14 games . Things will change week on week and it being the Championship there will be upsets. We would need our best form and consistency for some time , mixed with a bag full of luck. 

Highly unlikely , not impossible , but highly unlikely .

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

In order to make the play offs we'll need to finish above Preston, so it aint gonna happen. 

Edited February 15 by RoystonFoote'snephew
Text corrrection

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

I agree we need 27/28 points or similar and it's incredibly unlikely

We but have to play to win , forget the draws as they won't do anything for us coming from this far behind.

9 wins from 14 seems impossible. But taking a game or two at a time if just for once we win the next two games that we should on paper (QPR / Sheff Wed). 7 wins from 12 then looks something more achieveable if still very unlikely

Well draws vs I dunno Leicester would be useful but generally agree.

In theory WBA a point wouldn't be terrible, Norwich away similar albeit as direct rivals..

10 wins minimum needed IMO.

[Grey Fox]

We need to win the next game, then , repeat. 
Simples

[REDOXO]

I think there is a difference here than most seasons. 
 

From 5th down to 14th (cardiff) will all think they have a chance of the play offs so a lot of clubs will be playing each other. 

Edited February 15 by REDOXO

[kit]

I think we might have done enough to stay up already, a win on Saturday against qpr and it would change to probably have done enough, and win the next 2 and its certainly done enough. Thats assuming we lost every game therafter, so after the last two results we are only looking up the table to see where our season takes us now.

Its getting to the point now where you will have a team dropping out of having a realistic chance every couple of games on average. We're probably two "bad" results from dropping out of having any realistic chance at the moment.

Its probably going to be in the range of 69 to 79 points required so for us between 25 to 35 more points, probably towards the mid to higher end of that scale.

9 of our 14 games are against bottom half teams, 6 of which are at home. Something like 6 wins, 2 draws and a defeat in those games would be 20 points.

We have 3 away games against play off chasing teams in wba, sunderland and norwich, tough but something like a win loss and draw from those three is another 4 points.

Then away at Ipswich and home to Leicester get a point from one of those, and that'd be 25 points to take us to the bottom end with a slim chance of it being enough.

If we were to get the above set of results then it would be a strong finish but still leave us short in all liklihood. We probably need to have that run but have a near perfect return from the bottom half teams or pull out a couple of extra big results against the top teams on top to leave us with a good chance of making them.