Lee Johnson Sack Watch (Merged, again and again)

[Lord Northski]

It appears we need to score at least 2 goals to get a point against all but the worst sides in the division. I don't think we'll achieve this as often as we need, so we'll be relegated. 

Thing is, we know this, we've known it for months and we stil didn't buy or rent a right back in January and I'm pretty sure LJ doesn't know what or how to change things to counteract the slide. If he had, he would've done it already.

If we want to stay up we need to sack him and replace him with someone and who will address our issues. If we don't sack him, we have to accept relegation as the likely outcome, and although SL may be prepared to accept this, I'm sure the fans wouldn't and they'd make LJ's continued tenure so uncomfortable that he'd have to go anyway. 

[Westburydab]

4 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

I assume that response means you disagree with me and you think we should stick with the manager for yet another game given our fantastic record in the league since October?

 

[BRISTOL86]

1 minute ago, Monkeh said:

so your saying factually speaking 50 points is nor the correct target?

Yes. You said in average you need 50 points to stay up which is a long way off the actual average number that's been required in any of the last nine seasons (and possibly beyond, I got fed up of looking after a while). 

No one knows how many will be required this year but the odds of it being 50+ are not in your favour!

[1bristolcity]

45 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

on avg you need 50 points to stay up, on current standings we'll be lucky to get 40, we lose to the top and can't beat whats around us, and scrape by the teams at the very bottom, that isn't some random number its cold hard fact,

aboslotey nothing has been shown to say otherwise,

We need to score 3 or 4 goals a game to win or at least 2 to get a point, we've just lost our top scorer to injury, we are doomed

I am not happy at the moment, but I couldn't possibly feel so bad about things as you do....the 50 point theory is unlikely, and we have enough strikers, but to say we will be lucky to get 40!!! well I would pay for your season ticket in League 1 if we do, and you can pay me whatever that is if we do...deal?

[And Its Smith]

28 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Your first sentence is nonsense. Here are the last 9 seasons points totals for the highest placed relegated side (most recent first)

40, 41, 44, 40, 42, 47, 46, 48

So not one at 50 or above. In fact for the last 5 years an average of 41.4 points. 

Extrapolate our 31 game form and we end on 47 

Extrapolate our last 5 and we end on 47

So to say that relegation is a certainty on our form - whether short or long term - is rubbish as the evidence suggests it'll be enough to beat the drop. 

Not that I'm saying that's something to be proud of you understand. But let's at least get the facts right. 

You need to look at what the points were at this stage of the season to fully compare really.  I'd like to think we are aiming for 52 points as that is 100% safe. 

[BRISTOL86]

Just now, RedDave said:

You need to look at what the points were at this stage of the season to fully compare really.  I'd like to think we are aiming for 52 points as that is 100% safe. 

I tried but couldn't find an easy source of that info. Of course we should be aiming as high as possible! 

[havanatopia]

8 minutes ago, Lord Northski said:

It appears we need to score at least 2 goals to get a point against all but the worst sides in the division. I don't think we'll achieve this as often as we need, so we'll be relegated. 

Thing is, we know this, we've known it for months and we stil didn't buy or rent a right back in January and I'm pretty sure LJ doesn't know what or how to change things to counteract the slide. If he had, he would've done it already.

If we want to stay up we need to sack him and replace him with someone and who will address our issues. If we don't sack him, we have to accept relegation as the likely outcome, and although SL may be prepared to accept this, I'm sure the fans wouldn't and they'd make LJ's continued tenure so uncomfortable that he'd have to go anyway. 

It is inconceivable that SL has not factored in relegation. Someone has put a bet on somewhere to counteract it. All other explanations for holding on to a manager presiding over the worst run in our history has logic only explainable by the characters in Shutter Island.

[Aizoon]

1 hour ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Why is it acceotable to look at form over 18 games but refuse to consider it over - say - 4 games (where it's far from relegation form) or more notably 31 games (where it's marginally better than relegation form) as evidenced by the fact that we've played 31 games and have ammased the required points to be out of the relegation zone?

Because 18 games is a larger sample?

[BRISTOL86]

1 minute ago, Aizoon said:

Because 18 games is a larger sample?

31 is larger still but then people would have to give credit for starting well which wouldn't suit. 

[BS4 on Tour...]

1 hour ago, Westburydab said:

 

You seem to have quoted my post without adding any comment? A blank message! Surreal...

[pongo88]

1 hour ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Your first sentence is nonsense. Here are the last 9 seasons points totals for the highest placed relegated side (most recent first)

40, 41, 44, 40, 42, 47, 46, 48

So not one at 50 or above. In fact for the last 5 years an average of 41.4 points. 

Extrapolate our 31 game form and we end on 47 

Extrapolate our last 5 and we end on 47

So to say that relegation is a certainty on our form - whether short or long term - is rubbish as the evidence suggests it'll be enough to beat the drop. 

Not that I'm saying that's something to be proud of you understand. But let's at least get the facts right. 

The problem with extrapolation is it assumes that past trends will continue into the future. We gained a point against Sheffield Wednesday because of a lucky deflection off Abraham's bum, and 3 points against Rotherham because they are the worst team in the league who had only drawn one away match and had lost the rest. How can that be extrapolated to make anyone confident of survival?

[Major Isewater]

1 minute ago, pongo88 said:

The problem with extrapolation is it assumes that past trends will continue into the future. We gained a point against Sheffield Wednesday because of a lucky deflection off Abraham's bum, and 3 points against Rotherham because they are the worst team in the league who had only drawn one away match and had lost the rest. How can that be extrapolated to make anyone confident of survival?

Could be a good poster name 

' Abraham's lucky bum ' 

[BRISTOL86]

10 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

The problem with extrapolation is it assumes that past trends will continue into the future. We gained a point against Sheffield Wednesday because of a lucky deflection off Abraham's bum, and 3 points against Rotherham because they are the worst team in the league who had only drawn one away match and had lost the rest. How can that be extrapolated to make anyone confident of survival?

Of course but you could make similar arguments about results that have gone against us. Obviously the extrapolation is a best guess based on available data.

What actually happens is anyone's guess!

[Monkeh]

1 hour ago, BRISTOL86 said:

31 is larger still but then people would have to give credit for starting well which wouldn't suit. 

I looked at the last 31 games, we are 3 points off the drop zone and a steady downward tread,to sum it up Johnson is shit and has to go 

and you are deluded 

[BRISTOL86]

4 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

I looked at the last 31 games, we are 3 points off the drop zone and a steady downward tread,to sum it up Johnson is shit and has to go 

and you are deluded 

Deluded? I've presented you with facts which prove that you were spouting made up figures off the top of your head (your magical 50 points number) that have no basis in fact whatsoever. You should work for the Trump administration as you seem to have an uncanny knack of completely ignoring it when you're presented with factual evidence which disproves your assertions.

I made no comment at all about whether or not Johnson should go so not entirely sure what I'm 'deluded' about? 

For what it's worth, yes I'm surprised he's still in a job and I think a change of management is in everyone's interests.

Doesn't change the fact that you were talking crap based on nothing but a number you plucked out of your head. 

[Meryl Goodrum]

On 14/01/2017 at 18:34, Fordy62 said:

1832hrs: 4 year old daughter forcing us to watch the strictly Christmas special. 

So far I've identified 6 people capable of doing a better job than LJ;

Tess, Craig, Darcy, Bruno, Len and Ainsley Harriott. 

Or even the 4 year old daughter!!! Ha ha!!

[BCFC Grim]

The fact we are even contemplating going down means Johnson and Co are failing miserably. Even if we stay up by a couple of points, it isn't good enough. The man has lost 8 games in a row, TWICE in the last 18 months. That is pathetic and how anyone defend him is beyond me. Seems Lansdown (who in the summer said we should be challenging at the upper reaches of the league) is happy to watch this embarrassment continue.

[Top Robin]

13 minutes ago, BCFC Grim said:

The fact we are even contemplating going down means Johnson and Co are failing miserably. Even if we stay up by a couple of points, it isn't good enough. The man has lost 8 games in a row, TWICE in the last 18 months. That is pathetic and how anyone defend him is beyond me. Seems Lansdown (who in the summer said we should be challenging at the upper reaches of the league) is happy to watch this embarrassment continue.

I am hoping and expect Lansdown to be at least putting some feelers out as we speak

[billyboy50]

4 hours ago, BCFC Grim said:

The fact we are even contemplating going down means Johnson and Co are failing miserably. Even if we stay up by a couple of points, it isn't good enough. The man has lost 8 games in a row, TWICE in the last 18 months. That is pathetic and how anyone defend him is beyond me. Seems Lansdown (who in the summer said we should be challenging at the upper reaches of the league) is happy to watch this embarrassment continue.

I'm not having a go at SL just worried about the poor results city are having ,But I some times think he may have taken on too much with Bristol sport as his football,rugby, basketball teams are all the wrong end of their leagues ( not sure how the rest of Bristol Sport are doing ) , I hope I am wrong and he knows what he's doing and can turn the fortunes of our football club around as I'm not really bothered about the rest of Bristol sport .

 

[RumRed]

4 hours ago, Top Robin said:

I am hoping and expect Lansdown to be at least putting some feelers out as we speak

He's phoning up the rest of his luncheon club asking if any of their kids need work experience as we speak.

[gas8er]

6 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

Could be a good poster name 

' Abraham's lucky bum ' 

I am certainly not hanging that poster above my bed.

[NickJ]

5 hours ago, BCFC Grim said:

The fact we are even contemplating going down means Johnson and Co are failing miserably. Even if we stay up by a couple of points, it isn't good enough. The man has lost 8 games in a row, TWICE in the last 18 months. That is pathetic and how anyone defend him is beyond me. Seems Lansdown (who in the summer said we should be challenging at the upper reaches of the league) is happy to watch this embarrassment continue.

When you have said things like Lee has been on our radar for a long time, it would be very difficult to admit you were totally wrong.

[jim durston]

How much longer for Johnson? Under a decent experienced manager we have a team capable of challenging for the premiership as per the first half performance at Derby, but we lack the killer instinct and have stopped believing. Confidence is half the battle and that has to be rekindled by a new face. We have to stop the rot now or hello division 1 !!

[RumRed]

1 minute ago, NickJ said:

When you have said things like Lee has been on our radar for a long time, it would be very difficult to admit you were totally wrong.

Should have left him on our radar a little longer, about 5 years, then bring the 'prodigal son' back to the club once he had more experience.

[NickJ]

2 minutes ago, RumRed said:

Should have left him on our radar a little longer, about 5 years, then bring the 'prodigal son' back to the club once he had more experience.

I seriously do not think he will be managing at all in 5 years time.

[Jack Dawe]

5 minutes ago, NickJ said:

When you have said things like Lee has been on our radar for a long time, it would be very difficult to admit you were totally wrong.

And that "we are lucky to have him" 

SL could reflect that, with the benefit of hindsight, he and Keith were right when they thought the job "might be too soon for him."

You always need to offer a prowed chap a way out without completely losing face.....

[nimrod]

SL doesn't give a flying duck about any of us fans. When are you actually gonna realise this? He's actually very lucky to have this many dullards in absolute abundance. Game after game, year after year you all pile into AG, served up the same old dross. Yet you still come back. You will still come back in lg1 next year. He is a businessman, and that is how this club is run. There is no sentiment, people venting their spleen on this forum achieves nothing. WE ARE THE MUGS!

 

[RumRed]

2 minutes ago, NickJ said:

I seriously do not think he will be managing at all in 5 years time.

I think you maybe right, I like the guy (not that I've met him but purely from interviews etc).   I bought into the 'project' and he had my full support, I wanted him to succeed so much!  I fell off the bandwagon earlier than most but I was still guilty of believing the hype.

i wish him luck and have no ill feeling, it's not his fault SL hasn't pulled the trigger, the last few weeks I feel like he'd like to be put out of his misery at AG, the more time he's here the more he hurts his reputation.

Its sad.

[ScottishRed]

I truly don't believe that SL will let this go much further " I wont let this go to waste" was a telling comment.

The reality is that Div1 would be a disaster and after comments by the owner in the summer about "challenging at the top of the league", I do not believe he will not act if we get into the bottom 3 - it makes absolutely no sense not to.

I am confused about 2 things however,

1. Why does any fan believe that LJ is going to turn this around, and there are a good few that do. I get that we don't want to be changing manager every 12/15 months but we need the right manager.....sorry Head Coach, and Lee is clearly not that person.

2. Secondly, if we do survive with LJ still in charge, why does anyone believe that things will be any different this time next year? Shall we sell a load of players that have been bought in the last two windows then buy a load more in the 'final', and much vaunted, third window and become a safe top 10 side? Or will we buy a load more in the summer and have a first team squad of 35 players?That does not make any sense either. I also don't buy the argument that the players will start to get his 'methods' - 12 months in they haven't, so why would another 12 months make any difference. 

 

Not looking for a fight, just don't understand why some think it will all be ok, both this season and next.

 

 

 

[JamesBCFC]

31 minutes ago, ScottishRed said:

I truly don't believe that SL will let this go much further " I wont let this go to waste" was a telling comment.

The reality is that Div1 would be a disaster and after comments by the owner in the summer about "challenging at the top of the league", I do not believe he will not act if we get into the bottom 3 - it makes absolutely no sense not to.

I am confused about 2 things however,

1. Why does any fan believe that LJ is going to turn this around, and there are a good few that do. I get that we don't want to be changing manager every 12/15 months but we need the right manager.....sorry Head Coach, and Lee is clearly not that person.

2. Secondly, if we do survive with LJ still in charge, why does anyone believe that things will be any different this time next year? Shall we sell a load of players that have been bought in the last two windows then buy a load more in the 'final', and much vaunted, third window and become a safe top 10 side? Or will we buy a load more in the summer and have a first team squad of 35 players?That does not make any sense either. I also don't buy the argument that the players will start to get his 'methods' - 12 months in they haven't, so why would another 12 months make any difference. 

 

Not looking for a fight, just don't understand why some think it will all be ok, both this season and next.

 

 

 

Reasons I think he could turn it around:

He has done so before at other clubs.

His average record with us is a top half side. Somethings not working right now, but I've seen enough in performances and in what he managed before the Cardiff away game to think we will turn it around. 

Also studies have shown that sticking with a manager provides a bigger "bounce" than bringing in a new one.

 

You also assume that LJ is going to start buying players for the sake of it, which is a ridiculous assumption as he hasn't done that so far, so there is no basis for it (Yes multiple signings, but lots of them have been ones to develop, so they need experienced ones with them). Granted there has been a high turnover of players, but we now have a slightly below average sized squad for the division, under SC we could just barely fill the bench, so 8-9 additions were needed, just to get us a shred of depth.

I don't believe there was originally the intention of making as many signings in January, no one would have predicted both our goalkeepers deciding to be completely inept this year, and there was also talk of "trying to fast track" the "3 window" period after we started to struggle. 

Will more signings be made in the summer? Of course. But I expect to see some players who have repeatedly made mistakes or aren't good enough leave. (Flint, Little, Fielding, etc.) 
With the changes to the loan rules squads will naturally be a bit bigger as well. A senior squad of about 26-28 would be pretty likely, and probably smaller than average in the Championship next season, that's just how things are now.