The Championship FFP Thread (Merged)

[Davefevs]

11 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Saw a couple of reports that suggested only £5m in matchday revenue would be the one but that's madly low.

That’s not what’s in the EFL guidelines though, so not sure where that came from.

I can only assume that in a normal year there are some costs to creating that revenue, and that they must be taken into account, e.g. revenue down, but some costs also down.

Heres a yearly summary of the revenue streams (Holdings):

Shading:

red - down from 18/19

green - up from 18/19

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

That’s not what’s in the EFL guidelines though, so not sure where that came from.

I can only assume that in a normal year there are some costs to creating that revenue, and that they must be taken into account, e.g. revenue down, but some costs also down.

Heres a yearly summary of the revenue streams (Holdings):

Shading:

red - down from 18/19

green - up from 18/19

Yeah don't disagree with this- think our Covid losses over the 2 years can realistically run into 8 figures but the media snippets were worrying all the same.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Reading the bit about Brentford got my FFP interest increased again.

Stoke

To cut a long story short by my calculations in conjunction with SwissRamble, if their FFP loss in 2020/21 exceeds £6m- that's a standalone FFP loss in that season- then they have failed FFP.

They needed to improve it by £37m last season basically.

If we delve a little further...

This was 2019/20. Final 3 months give or take of the Reporting period,

£8m in Covid costs- x 4=£32m. An accounting loss not exceeding £45m maybe one metric- one other calculation I had made it to have been £37m but anyway a notable improvement is required from 2019/20!

Even if they managed to get over the line to 2021, they have a drop in £16.5m in allowance to 2022- the final PL year drops off and as for 2023, I believe their combined average for 2020 and 2021 will be worse than the around £8m in 2019 as a starting point.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Reading the bit about Brentford got my FFP interest increased again.

Stoke

To cut a long story short by my calculations in conjunction with SwissRamble, if their FFP loss in 2020/21 exceeds £6m- that's a standalone FFP loss in that season- then they have failed FFP.

They needed to improve it by £37m last season basically.

If we delve a little further...

This was 2019/20. Final 3 months give or take of the Reporting period,

£8m in Covid costs- x 4=£32m. An accounting loss not exceeding £45m maybe one metric- one other calculation I had made it to have been £37m but anyway a notable improvement is required from 2019/20!

Even if they managed to get over the line to 2021, they have a drop in £16.5m in allowance to 2022- the final PL year drops off and as for 2023, I believe their combined average for 2020 and 2021 will be worse than the around £8m in 2019 as a starting point.

If they have impaired such a significant amount of player contracts, surely there amortisation charge for 20/21 will be significantly lower?  Starting from a much lower base position.

Plus the sell of Nathan Collins too.

Does that help a fair bit?

edit: I highlighted the wrong bits on green….doh!

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Davefevs said:

If they have impaired such a significant amount of player contracts, surely there amortisation charge for 20/21 will be significantly lower?  Starting from a much lower base position.

Plus the sell of Nathan Collins too.

Does that help a fair bit?

edit: I highlighted the wrong bits on green….doh!

 

Agreed- it'll help but remember the Parachute Payments also lower in Year 3 and gone now.

For this season the Collins sale absolutely will help but into next season should almost certainly see a worse starting point than the period into this season so you're running from behind to stand still in a sense.

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Agreed- it'll help but remember the Parachute Payments also lower in Year 3 and gone now.

For this season the Collins sale absolutely will help but into next season should almost certainly see a worse starting point than the period into this season so you're running from behind to stand still in a sense.

Players like Afobe will be off the wage bill this summer, and others…and some!

Data from Wyscout, but source is transfermarkt!  I haven’t stripped out loans.

[Mr Popodopolous]

PL but may follow its way down...could be very interesting.

https://www.brabners.com/blogs/premier-league-regulations-third-party-transactions

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Players like Afobe will be off the wage bill this summer, and others…and some!

Data from Wyscout, but source is transfermarkt!  I haven’t stripped out loans.

Stoke seem to be in the strange position whereby they can sign players on x terms but might not be able to renew existing players on existing terms- I remember last April they were having issues renewing Nick Powell.

Wow that is quite the potential rebuild!

[Mr Popodopolous]

I've criticised Stoke but they do seem to be making efforts as well. Adam Davies has just gone to Sheffield United, and Baath has gone to Sunderland. The latter reportedly on a free, the former unsure if a fee or free but he joined Stoke on a free.

Fielding cheaper than Davies and Jagielka, Harwood-Bellis probably cheaper than Baath and Ostigard at this time. We're still to see the 2020/21 accounts of course.

Another one that interests me is Fulham. Parachute Payments or not unlike a lot of clubs they appear not to have generated much in the market.

Wilson was an 8 figure fee and Muniz was reportedly £7-8m? Their loss limit maybe £72m due to 2 PL and 2 Championship seasons but so is Sheffield United's and yet Ramsdale went for good cash, I'd guess Davies cheaper than Olsen too.

Fulham if they stay down could be in trouble. That £72m limit going into next season drops to £55.5m and the same for the below.

Bournemouth also have the £72m loss limit yet I see plenty of departures- of course but if they stay down, more needed.

Cardiff right now have the £55.5m but this falls to £39m next season should they remain in the Championship.

Birmingham's owners apparently have a 3 year plan to push for or gain promotion but big sales in 2019/20 and 2020/21 masked their underlying position a bit...by the time it comes around to 2023/24 could they actually be up against it FFP wise again?

What is striking is how few clubs have released their accounts so far. I make it only:

*Birmingham- via HKSE

*Blackburn- In the form of Venkys London Limited. Muddies the waters a bit. 

Brentford- Promoted to the PL

Us

Hull- They were in League One last year.

Millwall

Norwich- Promoted to the PL.

Wycombe- Relegated.

If we're including sides promoted and relegated last year we are waiting on many, many clubs. I'd hope that the EFL have info submitted by the clubs last summer.

[Hxj]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hull- They were in League One last year.

And have just had their transfer embargo lifted following repayment of their EFL Monitored Loan.

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, Hxj said:

And have just had their transfer embargo lifted following repayment of their EFL Monitored Loan.

So they have! Glad to see it's still being updated in a timely manner.

Amusingly now, Derby have nearly as many entries on there as the rest of the Football League put together!

5 on their rap sheet, 6 in total across the rest of the League.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Wilson was an 8 figure fee and Muniz was reportedly £7-8m? Their loss limit maybe £72m due to 2 PL and 2 Championship seasons but so is Sheffield United's and yet Ramsdale went for good cash, I'd guess Davies cheaper than Olsen too.

Wilson - £12m not due til next season…it’s a loan this season with obligation to buy in the summer (although based on certain conditions. I wonder if it’s dependent on promotion.

Having said that, if it was unconditional, then it should be treated as a permanent transfer.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Thought I'd look a little bit more closely at Birmingham. Their 6 month accounts for this season are due at HKSE in about 5 weeks btw. End of February, start of March kinda thing.

Clearly their results in the last two years will have been impacted by Covid but also bear in mind as I mentioned, a bit of a propping up by strong transfer fees. It's about although not exactly, $HK 10 to the £.

Would only likely be able to properly calculate the impact or try to once their UK accounts out but all the same.

UK accounts showed their 2019/20 losses to be £18,168,000 and this was despite and including a Profit on disposal of players listed as £11,542,000.

Once finance costs vs income added that's a loss- underlying- of £29,710,000!?

The HK equivelant showed the headline loss to have been HK$186,519,000- and a Profit on disposal of players listed as HK$115,543,000.

As we can see though it's not exactly 10 x, there is a strong correlation.

Then we move onto 2020/21. Awaiting the UK of course but...

A PROFIT- even including the Revenue hit-of HK$4,836,000- but remember this includes and is despite a Profit on disposal of players listed as HK$276,854,000.

Suggests to me that while the underlying loss is coming down it is certainly there. No FFP issues to this season, possibly not to next season due to that combined average but this seems to clash with their mooted 3 year plan as big underlying losses set them on at least a heavily restricted trajectory.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Little bit more on FFP. Doughty loan to Cardiff, maybe Stoke are compliant and I'm wrong and they are balancing things just about...time will tell?

Cardiff though- in addition to Doyle (Man City) and Drameh (Leeds) loans- this would be a 3rd and also linked with Hugill while no offers for Kieffer Moore. Giles has gone back to Wolves.

Does FFP apply to them? Not entirely serious question but going into next season there will be a negative swing of £15-20m quite possibly. Currently with the PL season their Upper Loss Limit is £55.5m but next year if they don't go up, it's £39m! That £16.5m alone is the drop in Upper Loss Limits and then consider that it goes from a 2018/19 PROFIT starting point to a loss in the combined average of last 2 seasons.

Their trajectory looks less than ideal but interestingly there was nothing in the Telegraph article when it mentioned clubs who could fall foul in the next year or 2.

They had Parachute Payments but they went from £35m is it Year 2, to £0 or £4.5m in Solidarity this year- another huge swing.

Another one to have a look at is Reading- Rafael has gone back to Brazil and the Carroll contract has expired but will they have done enough to avoid the suspended 6 points becoming unsuspended this Spring? Will be interesting to see but IIRC they have a fair few hurdles to jump to avoid it!

There are a lot of hazards that means they could easily see -6 become -12 at the stroke of a pen!

https://www.efl.com/contentassets/065e21d5596b42e7a882322d3a203509/efl-v-reading-fc---agreed-decision-approved-for-publication.pdf

I'm also interested in this bit- you might be able to help with clarity on this @Hxj

I've read it back quite a few times and it seems a bit clunky. Wordy.

Edited January 28, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Hxj]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I'm also interested in this bit- you might be able to help with clarity on this @Hxj

I read it as the club cannot have an expected FFP loss of more than £13 million in the periods ending 30 June 2022 and 30 June 2023.  The expected FFP loss is that in the budgets for those periods submitted in the March of each year.  In addition that expected FFP loss is after any expected profits or losses on player sales in the period from 1 March to 30 June in each year are ignored and any expected receipts from connected parties for the period 1 March to 30 June in each year are also ignored.

It looks as if the intent is to keep the club to a proper budget throughout the year and not let them simply wait until they know what the figures are expected to be and then say "ah the expected losses are covered by a player sale at the end of the season, and oh, here's a cheque for £1 million from our owner to rename the stadium, oh look we beat the budget by £100. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Hxj

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Hxj said:

I read it as the club cannot have an expected FFP loss of more than £13 million in the periods ending 30 June 2022 and 30 June 2023.  The expected FFP loss is that in the budgets for those periods submitted in the March of each year.  In addition that expected FFP loss is after any expected profits or losses on player sales in the period from 1 March to 30 June in each year are ignored and any expected receipts from connected parties for the period 1 March to 30 June in each year are also ignored.

It looks as if the intent is to keep the club to a proper budget throughout the year and not let them simply wait until they know what the figures are expected to be and then say "ah the expected losses are covered by a player sale at the end of the season, and oh, here's a cheque for £1 million from our owner to rename the stadium, oh look we beat the budget by £100. 

Thanks.

Wow, if true the EFL are really upping their game- they did with okay with Birmingham to a point, but it all seemed a bit trial and error- joining up the confirmed breach and the upcoming business plan wasn't as well done as hoped...9 and then a further 3 for not selling Adams would've seemed fair, both applied in 2018/19.

Now this- combined with the future financial information ie T+1, T+2 and the judgement against Birmingham regarding the business plan can really hold clubs to account for the past, present and future.

Edited January 28, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Josh Maja reportedly on loan to Stoke.

Perhaps I was/am wrong about them being within FFP at all times. 2020/21 accounts due out in a month to 5 weeks..

Him in, Doughty out on loan would surely be more expensive.

Have a squad of 32 as well!!

[Davefevs]

Gonna be some interesting financial results coming out.  Maja is a good player imho.

[Mr Popodopolous]

19 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Gonna be some interesting financial results coming out.  Maja is a good player imho.

Agreed on both- Maja a fine player and of a good age where he should only get better- injuries the caveat.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Small FFP updates to watch. Possibly not now but down the line.

Birmingham

BSH have posted a profit warning for their 6 months to December 31st 2021. This will be largely due to a far lower profit on disposal, because the last time they posted profit warnings Birmingham City made some quite substantial losses and further in the last couple of seasons where Bellingham, Adams, and some others sold BSH posted positive news to come.

I expect if a problem arises then it will be in the 3 year period to 2023/24.

Nottingham Forest

As we know there are periodic trades between them and Olympiakos as Marinakis owns both, did so before buying Nottingham Forest.

Usually these are small or free, moderate wages etc- small trades and nothing to write home about.

However this one is altogether different. Joao Carvalho, one of Nottingham Forest's record signings and still quite young. Still only 24 but been in and out. Mooted that it is an 8-figure fee!! Seen £14m mentioned.

One to watch...surely? All that said seen it stated that Worrall and Brennan Johnson could well be sold if not promoted etc. They usually sell academy products legitimately but Carvalho to Olympiakos for that amount. Hmmm.

[lenred]

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Small FFP updates to watch. Possibly not now but down the line.

Birmingham

BSH have posted a profit warning for their 6 months to December 31st 2021. This will be largely due to a far lower profit on disposal, because the last time they posted profit warnings Birmingham City made some quite substantial losses and further in the last couple of seasons where Bellingham, Adams, and some others sold BSH posted positive news to come.

I expect if a problem arises then it will be in the 3 year period to 2023/24.

Nottingham Forest

As we know there are periodic trades between them and Olympiakos as Marinakis owns both, did so before buying Nottingham Forest.

Usually these are small or free, moderate wages etc- small trades and nothing to write home about.

However this one is altogether different. Joao Carvalho, one of Nottingham Forest's record signings and still quite young. Still only 24 but been in and out. Mooted that it is an 8-figure fee!! Seen £14m mentioned.

One to watch...surely? All that said seen it stated that Worrall and Brennan Johnson could well be sold if not promoted etc. They usually sell academy products legitimately but Carvalho to Olympiakos for that amount. Hmmm.

They signed Carvalho for around the same amount so guess it’s feasible at least. Obviously it was a different time finances wise when they paid that though but guessing there won’t be too many questions if / when it happens.  

[Mr Popodopolous]

Should add on Birmingham one thing I just remembered, IF Bellingham goes now or the summer then that will surely be for a large amount.

Hence they should get a good few million in the sell on fee- and that will cushion them to an extent.

I'd be stunned if there isn't a sell on clause. Contract expires at Borussia Dortmund 2025 so it could work out well for them timing wise.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Thought I'd delve into Stoke a little bit more. This season before any moves that are confirmed in the next few hours:

IN

Bonham- Free, Gillingham.

Fielding- Free, few months to half season perhaps?

Wilmott- Watford. £1.5-5m probably, different reports suggest different figures.

Ostigard- Season long loan, that was ended halfway through as he went to Genoa.

Harwood-Bellis- Half season, presumably to replace the above.

Jagielka- Free until the summer.

Vrancic- Left Norwich, Free, 1 year deal.

Sawyers- West Brom, 1 season loan.

Baker- Finally left Chelsea, fee undisclosed.

Sima- Young loanee from Brighton, still there so season long as it stands.

Bidace- Half season loan for young winger from Aston Villa.

Surridge- Depending on reports, £2.5-5.5m fee.

OUT

Davies- Sheffield United, in January. Half a season of wage savings and maybe a fee of some kind.

Bauer- Finally left permanently, one of their loan army.

Edwards- Looks like another season on loan in the MLS.

Collins- Burnley, £12m.

Baath- Sunderland on a free. January.

Wimmer- Back to Austria, again loaned for 2-3 years.

Lindsay- Half season loan to Preston last season, permanent this summer.

Martins Indi- Gone back to Holland, again loan for a year or 2 before.

Cousins- Contract expired, left on a free.

Obi- Mikel- Contract expired, left on a free.

N'Diaye- Finally left permanently, had prior loans away.

Etebo- Loan to Watford. Has been loaned before.

Doughty- Loaned to Cardiff, January 2022. Half- season.

Afobe- Season long loan to Millwall. Has spent prior two seasons out on loan.

Gregory- Offloaded to Sheffield Wednesday- joined on a free so any sale is profit.

Vokes- Gone to Wycombe.

Genuinely hard to ascertain as to whether they will or won't be within FFP.

Obviously the aforementioned Harwood-Bellis for Ostigard.

As for today, Surridge linked with going either on loan or permanent and Maja linked with joining on loan.

Last season, Gunn was there on loan for a full season, then Norrington-Davies Matondo and Jack Clarke for half-season loans. None there now.

[INCRED]

Surely the EFL won’t sanction this when they are under an embargo 

[Southport Red]

8 minutes ago, INCRED said:

Surely the EFL won’t sanction this when they are under an embargo 

Surely that can’t be allowable. 

[luke_bristol]

They really are taking the piss now

[Mr Popodopolous]

I assumed it has been confirmed but possibly misread the story.

Crystal Palace themselves would like the deal to work this way I expect- but if there are rules then they need to be upheld.

Tom Ince-Liam Moore swap being reported- surely that's likely to increase Reading's wages if anything??

Unsure how the deal would work but Liam Moore to Stoke, Tom Ince to Reading.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Thought I'd delve into Stoke a little bit more. This season before any moves that are confirmed in the next few hours:

IN

Bonham- Free, Gillingham.

Fielding- Free, few months to half season perhaps?

Wilmott- Watford. £1.5-5m probably, different reports suggest different figures.

Ostigard- Season long loan, that was ended halfway through as he went to Genoa.

Harwood-Bellis- Half season, presumably to replace the above.

Jagielka- Free until the summer.

Vrancic- Left Norwich, Free, 1 year deal.

Sawyers- West Brom, 1 season loan.

Baker- Finally left Chelsea, fee undisclosed.

Sima- Young loanee from Brighton, still there so season long as it stands.

Bidace- Half season loan for young winger from Aston Villa.

Surridge- Depending on reports, £2.5-5.5m fee.

OUT

Davies- Sheffield United, in January. Half a season of wage savings and maybe a fee of some kind.

Bauer- Finally left permanently, one of their loan army.

Edwards- Looks like another season on loan in the MLS.

Collins- Burnley, £12m.

Baath- Sunderland on a free. January.

Wimmer- Back to Austria, again loaned for 2-3 years.

Lindsay- Half season loan to Preston last season, permanent this summer.

Martins Indi- Gone back to Holland, again loan for a year or 2 before.

Cousins- Contract expired, left on a free.

Obi- Mikel- Contract expired, left on a free.

N'Diaye- Finally left permanently, had prior loans away.

Etebo- Loan to Watford. Has been loaned before.

Doughty- Loaned to Cardiff, January 2022. Half- season.

Afobe- Season long loan to Millwall. Has spent prior two seasons out on loan.

Gregory- Offloaded to Sheffield Wednesday- joined on a free so any sale is profit.

Vokes- Gone to Wycombe.

Genuinely hard to ascertain as to whether they will or won't be within FFP.

Obviously the aforementioned Harwood-Bellis for Ostigard.

As for today, Surridge linked with going either on loan or permanent and Maja linked with joining on loan.

Last season, Gunn was there on loan for a full season, then Norrington-Davies Matondo and Jack Clarke for half-season loans. None there now.

We haven’t seen 20/21’s accounts yet, so got no idea of their position.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Derby fans are moaning about corruption if the EFL allow the Plange deal.

They really have little grasp don't they!? Could be a vocal minority etc.

[chinapig]

19 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Derby fans are moaning about corruption if the EFL allow the Plange deal.

They really have little grasp don't they!? Could be a vocal minority etc.

Why corruption if it works in their favour? Posted this on the Derby thread:

Crisis club Derby are set for a much-needed £1m windfall for young striker Luke Plange.

Derby have accepted a bid from Crystal Palace for the 19-year-old, who joined the Rams in the summer after being released by Arsenal.

Plange has impressed this term and scored Derby’s first goal in their memorable 2-2 comeback draw against Birmingham yesterday.

However, the deal is attractive because Palace have agreed to loan Plange back to Derby for the remainder of the season.

Although the Championship club are not allowed to register new players due to their current financial position, Football League rules allow Plange to stay on at Derby providing his wage stays the same