The Swan and Cemetery

In fairness to Pring, he was playing against a much higher standard of opposition than Roberts has so far. We’ve yet to see if Roberts can do it at Championship level (albeit all the signs are very promising). Don’t think Pring deserves to be benched after one game, but great that there’s competition. 

4 minutes ago, MelksRed said:

Genuinely exciting. First thought is to collect the ball, turn and head towards the goal....

I’m all for getting a decent number of goal attempts in, but surely there must be times when he considers kicking the ball? 

Lacklustre and far from great, but first game and some key creativity missing, plus PNE looked decent, particularly their pressing (to which we generally responded to poorly with inaccurate passing). But to read this thread without knowing the score, you’d assume we’d had a day out similar to Port Vale’s, rather than a point from a sub par performance. 

12 minutes ago, BetterRedthanBlue said:

Talking of West Ham they bad a bid of £25m rejected for James Ward-Prowse and apparently won't go higher, maybe they'll glance our way with that money.

If they won’t go above £25m for a 28 year old with over 300 PL appearances, almost 50 goals and a number of England caps, for all AS’s potential ceiling, think it would imply our valuation model is a long way out of sync with theirs. 

8 hours ago, BasSavage88 said:

If you don't care or buy about the kit then commercially yes. The club know it has a percentage of older fans who buy their season ticket every year and that's it. Nothing else they do is aimed at you and they wouldn't waste their time or research trying. 

City’s commercial success or otherwise is dependent on sales of replica kit? 

8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

State of play that we know of seems to be us holding out for our price and clubs- most notably Wolves given their frequency of bidding- seeking to low-ball us.

No sign of Scott discontent although who knows if there is behind the scenes.

Would be hopeful all agreed with Alex and representatives in advance, so the first club that meets our terms and his, off he goes. Really hope we’re not seeking a bidding war and hope he/his representatives aren’t putting pressure on us to accept low balled bids. We need to send the right signal to young/talented players and their representatives that a) they can develop and get their chance with us and b) we’ll be sensible (but not have the Micky taken out of us) when it’s time to move on. If we try to be clever now (I don’t think current management will be), it’s not without its risks for the future. 

In terms of first team performance this season, wonder if AS sale will be simply a negative (lack of AS), with the vast majority of squad/team improvement coming from a combination of getting excess players and wages off the books over the last couple of years, plus the money from the Semenyo sale? Not convinced we’d have anticipated AS money in any of our business to date given conservative (and sensible) approach to FFP in recent times. 

Think the business we have done makes us significantly stronger than last season, but AS clearly strengthens us. Don’t think this is a reason not to sell though, player will want (and deserve) his crack at the Prem and the money can be used effectively still. But maybe a bit late to do much more business without being ripped off. Puts us in a good place for future sustainability, Jan window if needed and maybe investing more in a very successful academy.

Did think we might want more goal scoring firepower to support TC, but I’ve extrapolated a couple of mins of highlights vs National league south to a new ‘goals from everywhere’ strategy, so reneging on that view. 

Think the most crucial individuals in the squad (based on their ability, but critically also their cover or lack of):

Max O’L

Rob A

Matty J

We’ve some sort of cover for all of them and if we brought 3 more in would we start to look a bit bloated as a squad? Whilst we’ve seen youngsters forced to make their mark in recent seasons due to lack of options, being in a better place squad wise doesn’t make the principle of youngsters getting their chance wrong. Can see Araoye, Palmer-Houlden and maybe others being there or thereabouts. 

That’s a long way of saying, maybe no one else comes in post AS sale. 

We’ve no idea what tweaks to set up with/without the ball we’re trying, plus players that haven’t played with each other before etc etc. These are exactly the games to try things and accept things might not go to plan as no downside - the objective is getting ready for PNE and beyond, not sending GJ home recoiling from a hammering. 

2 hours ago, SecretSam said:

Do you get nostalgic about the violence, racism, sexism and homophobia that was endemic, too? I remember the ground like that. No, thanks.

Not sure it’s obligatory for atmosphere to come as a bundle with those things. Lots of lower league/non league grounds have atmosphere/nostalgia, but no more violence/racism/sexism/homophobia than the homogenous bowls of the Prem and Championship. 

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I would hope not.

Birmingham got into a tangle in 2018 doing just that. An FFP breach in the 3 year period to 2018 was likely, but they avoided Disciplinary action in season of the Projected Breach.

All the same they informed the EFL that their solution was that Butland and Gray sell-on clauses would solve the issue at least for that season.

They remained under a sort embargo as a holding pattern (signed Pedersen incorrectly hut that's another issue). 30th June came and went, EFL maybe gave them another month or so when haggling buy under full embargo. Maybe being a World Cup summer played in their favour a bit.

By end of July, early August 2018 nothing had materialised and they were subsequently referred for an FFP breach.

Thank you. Still wonder if having a decent chunk of possible future income tied up in the waxing and waning fortunes of one club is ideal. Or maybe I’m just angsty about feeling as if we risk becoming a feeder club for the behemoth of AFC Bournemouth. If we rename RB Bristol City I’m out. 

5 minutes ago, Midred said:

We've ..., do you mean otib? 

I mean me… I just can’t remember if I have or not. 

53 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Yep, plus West Ham have changed focus since the new Director of Football was appointed.

I would be very surprised if he’s not a Bournemouth player by the time we face Preston.

Wonder if we put forecasts for future sell on clause receipts into our financial models and risk our future health, wealth and happiness being overly dependent on the transfer policy/competence of AFC Bournemouth with 3 reasonably significant potential sources of income with them at the same time. 

1 hour ago, KegCity said:

Genuine question: what can Scott do about it if we reject a bid?

Down tools. Seems like a sensible/nice chap so wouldn’t expect him to do it if we turned down (say) £10m from Burnley, but he might if we turned down £25m from Man City. This is why think it’s so important the we’ve discussed with him/his representatives our expectations on offers and hopefully reached agreement, so everyone knows where they stand if/when offers come in. If there’s a release clause in his contract, that might make things more straightforward for one and all. 

11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Personally I don't think that is right. My opinion is that so long as the stadium is safe then if you qualify on sporting merit that should not be denied due to facility issues.

It's a rare example of football actually recognising and allowing meritocratic advancement at the expense of commercial gain. 

It's to be applauded in my opinion.

Couldn’t agree more, the objective is winning football matches, not having padded seats. Kenilworth Road maybe old school (and all the better for it), it’s not unsafe. Additional qualifying criteria (other than safety) beyond sporting achievement is embarrassing (see rugby’s attempt at a closed shop). 

1 hour ago, Northern Red said:

Does the player get a say in this?

Absolutely not. Man City offer £25m and we decline them, there is absolutely nothing Alex can do about it… or is there…?

I’d be hopeful that we’ve agreed ground rules with AS and his representatives early on:

- Gas offer £20k (if they can find a mortgage lender willing to offer 100% LTV on the Mem, so unlikely) that’s a no and we don’t expect you to be hacked off Alex.

- Real Madrid offer £100m and you want to go, fair play Alex, live your best life - and if we say “no” don’t think unreasonable for him to down tools, as we would be being unreasonable. 

And more nuanced (and likely) offers in between. Hopeful that offers won’t be a starting point of our conversations with Alex re what we will accept and therefore his reaction to our reaction. Fantasies that the player has no power in this situation are clearly just that, fantasies. 

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

He did indeed.

And not sure I can think of plausible options that wouldn’t risk wage structure/team ethos, would want to come to us and also cost (say) £10m. If we got £25m, probably sensible to pop £15m in the bank or invest more in what’s becoming a very successful academy etc, rather than feel obliged to spend the money on first team marquee players. 

Didn’t see him first time ‘round, lucky enough to see him second time ‘round. Leeds and Liverpool winners to keep us up come to mind. Legendary player in the most legendary of teams. RIP. 

37 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

There has to be an assumption that however they invest the £300 million now, it will increase returns so significantly that the 30% of revenue repayment will not reduce the profit to the club as revenue will grow so much. However for that to be the case revenue would need to increase by around 45-50% I.e. the additional money would pay for itself within a year, yet they would be paying that out for 30 years. From the outside, it still looks like a really bad deal however desperate they are for immediate cash upfront. 

My maths may well be wonky, but make it revenue growth of approx 3.3% pa vs what they would have received, to break even over 20 years. Loss making in year for first 10 years then starts to be profitable. 5% and lose money for the first 7 years and significantly profitable over 20 years. Trying to remove impact of inflation all round and get to, in effect, a net present value of the additional investment. 2% growth pa and lose significantly over 20 years with only final 3 years profitable. At least investor and RM incentives aligned, the more effectively the investment is used, the greater the returns on the investment. And implies no repayment of capital, ie investment rather than lending, which makes it easier to get the financials to work.

It may well be obvious from the above, but I’m not an accountant, so happy to defer to anyone with more competence (aka… anyone). 

Thought Semenyo’s best days were when he had Martin dealing with/causing problems for the lump central defenders. Allowed him to move on to defenders who were weaker than him and his pace was as good as theirs, if not quicker. Remain to be convinced that something similar wouldn’t help Tommy reach his potential more swiftly. Big/strong defenders offer something and not sure we’ve currently got the frontline to confidently counteract them, lots of quicker players isn’t sufficient in my view, we need to have some other options. Cornick the closest, but very different to Martin/a striker who can beat up physical defenders. 

On 30/06/2023 at 11:19, Firstyardleftinbed said:

This is what I think Nige will end up going with for the first game (barring injuries etc). Possibly Bell instead of Mehmeti and Tanner instead of McCrorie but think he'll go with the new signings to try and bed them in. Sounds like Scott will be gone by then as well but this allows us to get Weimann in a more central position where he is so much more effective than out wide. As a few people on here have already said, I'm really looking forward to seeing how Conway gets on this year, think him and Pring will be the next ones on the radar of Prem clubs.

 

I quite like this in lots of ways, but think we need someone giving defenders a physically hard time to relieve pressure on TC as a lone front man. Despite his detractors, currently only Cornick really fits that description (up to a point, more awkward to play against, than hugely physical), which is why I’d expect a striker to be part of the Scott spending spree, if he goes. 

3 hours ago, sunningdalered said:

FWIW, I've always thought Kalas was too immobile, and had to expend more effort throwing himself into last-ditch blocks than he might have needed to because he didn't read, or couldn't get to a threat early enough. 

I broadly agree with this. It may never have been TK’s strength, meaning we may have signed the wrong player, but for the money, think we needed someone who could organise the defence effectively (most of whom were younger/cheaper/less experienced/not particularly vocal). Think TK alongside a strong organiser would have been great, given his ability to defend, particularly one on one, albeit needed help with starting position. For £8m we maybe went after the wrong type of defender.
All that said, think he was our best defender for a season or few, just maybe not quite what we most needed on a not unlimited budget. 

2 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

Your first sentence says it all, how will your strategy do anything other than increase the number of “average players “ in our team?

To take Selred’s post literally, think we’d be hopeful for better than average for 2 x £12.5m? 

5 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I think with his contract only having two years remaining then most of us are in agreement that we should sell this summer.

If the price is right, fair enough, no different to any other time. Helping us to the play offs/enhancing his reputation further to offset impact of contract running down is a plausible outcome. I’d be happy either way. 

2 hours ago, B1ackbird said:

Who remembers the old manor ground with the terraced away end/side?

Seem to remember Stein and Foster as two of their players....

Great team when they won the Milk Cup, albeit any team with Aldridge up front would struggle to be bad. Ray Houghton, Malcolm Shotton, Trevor Hebberd et al. The stars aligned for them and they won an important trophy, fair play. 

Think how we dealt with Massengo maybe instructive. If you’re not prepared to sign, don’t expect to play. For HNM that was potentially fine given age, games under his belt and acknowledgement of potential in his home country… for Zak/others, missing a season or so when at prime age might be very risky for getting a new club/remuneration he’s after. I really like Zak and think reasonable to believe he may not have reached his ceiling, but as a City fan, think we need to be fair, but tough, in our negotiating approach and if that means recruitment is to backfill a player that’s not playing, rather than one that’s left the club, sobeit. Whilst financially tricky in the here and now, think it helps us in the medium term with the message it sends.