Davefevs

https://twitter.com/bristolcitylive/status/1493994441648087052?s=21 Read the quotes in the above…not the stuff around it from the post.

James asks good questions, importantly listens to the answers / responses and frames the next questions from that…asking his initial question again if he doesn’t get a satisfactory first answer. He gets long answers back as a result. You can tell that Nige reads what he writes and respect is mutual.

Yes, there are other things going on behind the scenes where Gould is showing a completely different approach to his predecessor. The future has potential (that’s a crap thing to right, but you know what I mean)! Instead JL looked to cover him and his dad’s arse and deflect it onto the Team / Nige. Nice!

Yep, as I suspected (hoped?) putting an impairment in your company accounts doesn’t mean it’s gonna count for P&S!! We will see how this is factored in. Assuming it’s £5m for 19/20 and £5m for 20/21, I’m assuming it’s only those limits if you lost that much, I.e. if you only lost £2m in 19/20 you can only offset £2m. The £2.5m is a bit of a bonus though, now the two years are set at a max of £5m. Putting the following figs into my xls (£2.4m 19/20, £5.0m max 20/21, £2.5m max (21/22), it actually has little impact. I’d initially put the same for 19/20 and £10.4m in for 20/21, but because it’s halved it’s really only £6.4m excluded. Now we get £2.4m + £5.0m = £7.4m halved is £3.7m plus the new £2.5m equals £6.2m. So we are about £0.2m worse off. So still over next year, but still not much by my reckoning.

Supposed to have been out at 3pm!

For me, assuming we have an owner willing to commit to £13m of FFP losses each year, which in reality is around £18m each year because of allowances, is that our budget should reflect that at its worst. Bear with me on that. So if revenue is £27m, total costs budget should be £45m. If we make money on transfers then that reduces the losses to a better position. What we shouldn’t be doing is having a cost budget of £60m in the hope we make £15m p.a. in transfer fees. That is where we have failed. We’ve not been “honestly unlucky” or whatever term JL used. FWIW in my example I still think budgeting to make a worse case loss of £18m is “bonkers”, and we should be looking to do much better than that…either we grow income or reduce costs, hopefully both. It’s not really “self sustaining” which is what SL really wants - not just sustainable with handouts from him. Bold bits in order: - yes, thank god we’ve not had to go down, Lg1 looks very competitive at the mo’. Clubs taking advantage of the removal of the short-lived salary cap to give it a big gamble. - I’m sure some will mis-quote him if we aren’t in the PL season 24/25….but he actually said “have a squad ready to complete for a place in the PL” - very different. Also need to ensure people don’t mis-quote 3 seasons into 3 windows…again very different. In summary in the last 5 seasons we made c£80m in transfer profit, so for the 2 covid years JL / RG are saying on average we lost £16m p.a. Therefore two seasons is £32m…rounded down to £30m. I think that is incredibly hopeful. It basically says, run a risky strategy and get bailed out for it. Other clubs will turn around and tell us / EFL to eff-off…and rightly so. I could see an argument where you impair players transfer fees and those costs (in the accounts) are excluded for FFP. Like we did with Nagy - although at this point we aren’t excluding that from FFP. This is the basis of Stoke’s losses in 19/20. We have no idea whether the EFL will recognise this figure in their FFP submission. But I can see a better argument for that…maybe only including players signed 18/19 and 19/20. But it looks messy.

Are you saying Engvall actually cost us £12m!!

Maybe he has learned from his own experiences. I read his book too, and it completely changed my view if him. I like him now, thought he was a bit of dick beforehand. He has highlighted a number of fundamental flaws in football as a business.

Basically the EFL have changed the FFP rules for 19/20 and 20/21 and allowed you to reduce your losses by the income you lost out on through covid. They’ve been pretty fair in that respect, which is why Jordan is saying clubs have had 2 years to react. So for FFP purposes our £38.4m loss will be less than that.

SJ agrees with revenue lost due ticket sakes, commercial revenues, etc. He disagrees with RG / JL’s view that they should be allowed more allowances based on historic transfer profit. And I agree with him.

It’s on about 11:20, and carried on beyond 11:30 https://talksport.com/radio/listen-again/1645092000/1645095600/

We are well inside ffp for the cycle ending this season.

Big round of applause. It was coming, Covid brought it forward. I’ve been moaning about this for best part of 4 years. I’m not even an accountant! Much as I dislike comparing us to our friends in the north….it’s what happened to them, when they stopped having sellable assets like Stewart, Browning, Taylor, Ellington, Roberts, Hayles, Lambert, etc. they suddenly couldn’t afford to live in Lg1 (Champ for very short stint)…and Colin Daniel became “king”! We are a tad fortunate Semenyo and Scott give us a backstop, Massengo too, to a lesser extent, because we bought him in for a decent fee in the first place. Ashton / Holden (???) we’re happy to loan him to Brum….he would have been off last summer for less than we paid for him had that happened! Let that sink in.

Haven’t listened, but I agree. A. Flawed model in the first place, how many of signings returned a profit. I reckon of the 69 “Ashton” signings, make that 52 (17 were loans) just 6 were sold for more than we paid for them. You could argue that the 52 is really 37 because 15 were free transfers, but some of those free transfers were ones who we might’ve sold for a fee. That’s a crap hit rate when that’s your strategy. The 6 were: Magnússon (small profit) Eliasson (small profit) Brownhill Webster Szmodics (small profit) Eisa (small profit) B. Yep, and the biggest failure was the recontracting debacle last summer. Letting players like Diedhiou go for free. Ashton had 2 years to extend I’d sell him. Others too.

Of the two of them (Vyner and Moore), I think Moore is the better CB option. But I think he will leave this summer. If we have been getting £7.5k p.w from Hearts that’s a very useful £350k income for us.

Fred Davis, surely he’s too old to get his leg over, he’ll have to use his left hand instead!

I think we are both members of the NMAS (Nicky Morgan Appreciation Society).

£14m cash in the bank according to their 2020 accounts.

Yep, was hoping to hear that…although what we got was exactly what I expected. By the end of the summer we will start to see the influence of Richard Gould, and this time next year we will see the first year”s accounts with him as CEO. He is very interested in improving the club, not his ego. That’s not a throwaway comment, that’s from others who’ve had dealings with him.

Tonight Joao looked like a player who’s come back from a long time out and is running in empty.

Watched the last 30 mins, Reading got away with that. Derby v Peterborough this weekend.

Shame it was an “eggs in one basket” approach previously, and that we thought paying higher wages was fine too. Talk about riding the gravy train and never considering it might end. If numpties like me thought it was risky what are the experts doing?

My list was: Forest Boro Stoke Reading Cardiff Brum

More like £25k p.w!!! Categorically…no! Likely to be a small fee up to £250k, and strong possibility we might have to pay some of his wages for his final year too. His book value is about £80k….so anything less than that is a FFP loss! I reckon he’s on £10k p.w. ???

Unacceptable to me also. Uni bond or wherever down the ladder imho.