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Crewe Alexandra V Bristol City


The Kaiser

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Mr O Driscoll's job will be on the line very very very soon. 20 games without a win, no matter how unlucky some results have been, in particularly todays, simply is not good enough. Another relegation is not an option for this club..seriously

 

Sort it Mr SOD, or you will be out if we're still bottom four after Xmas..

 

Any more poor performances like Wycombe away are really not what we wanna see..

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Okay Ill do it for him. This season we need over 50 points to be sure of not being relegated based on previous relegations. In order to achieve that we know need to win 1 game in every 2.65 or thereabouts just to hit 50. That is play off form, just to hit 50. We are bottom three in our current points per game ratio. The bottom four get relegated in this league. On that basis we are currently relegation fodder. we need 15 wins or so from 35 games inc this one or the ratio 1.265 will continue to get ever smaller.

 

I'm not quite sure what maths sheet you're singing from, but to clarify:

 

To reach 50 points, we need 44 from 35 games. That equates to 1.257 points per game.

 

1.257 points per game from the beginning of the season would result in 57 or 58 points.

 

If that's play off form, then I'm astounded.

 

Also, yes, 15 wins from 35 games would give us 51 points - assuming we also managed to lose the other 20. Seeing as we currently have the joint most draws in the league, I can't see that happening. We could just as easily win 10, draw 15, and lose 10. Or similar combinations. Which certainly isn't play off form.

 

Not sure about your ratio either, ignoring the fact that it's an incredibly bizarre way of expressing something that is more clearly expressed via points per game. 1 win per 2.65 games over the next 35 games would give us around 39/40 points. Which would leave us on 45/46 points. In fact, we'd need around 1 win per 2.39 games, if you want to put it that way - worse than you suggest.

 

Still not play off form though.

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Players that looked like they were trying Wagstaff first half, Bryan second half and Taylor.

Players that looked like they couldn't give a toss JET

Players who didn't care one way or the other everyone else (except possibly Bobby Reid)

Crewe player was facing the wrong way and running out of the penalty area when he fell over, when the pen went in Flapper jumped and punched the air like they had just won the cup

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Were we that bad today? How was the movement of the ball? It was dog sh1t v Wycombe. Any improvement?

better than v Wycombe but then how could we possibly have been worse than that. Stupid penalty, bad decision, JET missed sitter then lost all interest. Taylor looked good, almost everything else shocking Bryan was good too.
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Both teams looked very poor today. At station waiting for train back to Manchester, couldn't see from my end if was pen but went down very easy.

Thing that annoyed me looking for equaliser play ball on box out wide, there guy goes down holding his head. Ref blows for stop in play there player walks off winks at away fans and tells us be quiet. Surely ref or Lino can see he's cheated by his reaction so why no booking. His actions then caused away end to erupt and people stupidly went on pitch after him.

The performance, Shorey looked excellent again. Wagstaff ran himself into the ground and Bryan looked good 2nd half linking with Shorey. Taylor made a big difference when came on for held ball up and linked up play.

Defensively we looked ok, apart from them hitting the bar didn't look that dangerous. Think we need wynter playing in midfield controlling things for Reid and pack tried but game passed them by and that ment we never had a chance to control it.

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I got it to be 15 wins from 35 3x15= 45 points, plus the 6 we have equals 51 and safety ala Colchester last season. S****horpe were relegated with 13 wins, Pompey with points deduction etc with 10 wins, the rest with 9

 

Yes, I agreed that 15 wins would give us 51 points. That's irrefutable.

 

What I suggested is that we could equally win 14, draw 3, lose 18. Or win 13, draw 6, lose 16. Or win 12, draw 9, lose 14.

 

My point being that it is points that are important, not wins. I could similarly quote that Preston came 14th with 14 wins, Shrewsbury 16th with 13 wins, Carlisle, Oldham, Colchester, all 14 wins.

 

15 wins is not the only way out of the situation, that's all.

 

We need to win 1 in every 2.3 ish games to hit that target.  

From the start of the season so winning around 1/2 our games,  23 wins would give you 69 points which last season would have seen us finish just outside the play offs.

So er yes we do need to win that many, simples and it does mean play off or there abouts form

 

Again, it's suggesting that wins are the only way to gain points, but I'll roll with it.

 

1 in 2.3 games, over a whole season, gives 60 points. Assuming, of course, that you lose the remaining 1.3 games.

 

1 in 2 games, as you say, gives 69 points. Again, assuming you lose the other 1 of those 2 games.

 

So you stating "we need 1 in 2.3" and "1 in 2 is almost playoff form" is actually agreeing that what we need (1 in 2.3) is not playoff form (1 in 2).

 

Or, again, in points per game terminology (because draws do exist) we need 1.257 points per game. Playoff form (judging from last season's 6th place) would be 1.61 points per game. That is a difference of 16 points over the course of a season - which is why comparing our 'requirement' of 1 win every 2.3 games to winning 1 every 2 games is not a suitable comparison (it would result in a difference of 9 points).

 

Not to mention that the difference between 1 win in 2.3 games (what you claim we need) and 1 win in 2.39 games (what we actually need) is just over 2 points.

 

None of this is claiming that that means we will do it, or won't do it, or that it's easy or anything. I'm just making sure we don't lose sight of the fact that, at this moment in time, we do not need playoff form to finish outside of the relegation zone.

 

In fact, playoff form (1.61 points per game) from here on in would see us end on 62 points. That'd be nice.

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I got it to be 15 wins from 35 3x15= 45 points, plus the 6 we have equals 51 and safety ala Colchester last season. S****horpe were relegated with 13 wins, Pompey with points deduction etc with 10 wins, the rest with 9

We need to win 1 in every 2.3 ish games to hit that target.  

From the start of the season so winning around 1/2 our games,  23 wins would give you 69 points which last season would have seen us finish just outside the play offs.

So er yes we do need to win that many, simples and it does mean play off or there abouts form

 

When we haven't won in 20, to win fifteen from thirty five suddenly looks a tall order! :sad26:

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Selective memory ?

You said we wouldnt go down, I said I agreed but bet SOD would be gone before the end of the season and then you dissapeared :ph34r:  

 

If I forget something its not selective sadly; wish it was!!

 

Btw...I am not saying we are going down now. 

 

I don't live on here either !!

 

p.s. I still don't remember any bet though ;)

 

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You are aware of the KISS principle? Yes?

 

So we win 15 out 35, we are more likely to be safe than not. There was no assumption that we would lose the other 20 games in that, and any additional points would be a bonus that would help our total. If we were to draw around half of those and lose another 10 we'd be on course for 61 which is upper mid table.

I stand therefore by my original assertion, because I'm purposely not considering a myriad of variables as you have done.

Less to go wrong with KISS ergo more likely hood of success and suprise. Cheers

 

Your original assertion was "that's play off form, just to hit 50".

 

That is not true. (Play off form from here = 62 points.)

 

That was the thrust of my point.

 

 

Fans understanding that we don't need to have play off form simply to avoid relegation will have no effect on "less going wrong" or "more likely hood of success and surprise".

 

I don't have any problem with people preparing for the worst, or expecting the best, or any viewpoint on our current position, I just figured I'd point out some mathematical fact.

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