General Election 2015 Match Day Thread (Merged)

[Kid in the Riot]

They are. But some people are afraid they'll be thought of as selfish bustards if they say they'll vote Conservative.

 

And why on earth would they think that...?!

[Calculus]

Why should it go wrong? It hasn't in Bolivia or Iceland.

 

The neo-con idea of rewarding the wealthy and soaking the poor has been a disaster on its own terms. If you give money to the rich, they will salt it away in tax havens. If you give money to the poor they will spend it and boost the economy.

 

Perfectly obvious, unless you're one of the rich or influenced by the mass media that they own.

Crikey. Bolivia and Iceland eh? The Guardian really do scrape the barrel these days. Will be interesting to see what happens in Bolivia once the hike in commodity prices ends and all they are left with is massive welfare bills and an inability to borrow. Maybe the children of Bolivia, who have just had the minimum age for working reduced to 10, will have to try a bit harder.

As regards the Scots they seem to think they can spend ever increasing amounts as long as someone else pays (The rich, the English, whoever).

In the lomg run over taxing achievers and wealth creators doesn't work, as our own Steve L stands testimony. (He was happy to pay tax when the rate was 40% but moved out when 50% was announced. So now that's 50% of diddly squat instead of 40% of a lot).

[BCFC Jimmer]

In the lomg run over taxing achievers and wealth creators doesn't work, as our own Steve L stands testimony. (He was happy to pay tax when the rate was 40% but moved out when 50% was announced. So now that's 50% of diddly squat instead of 40% of a lot).

 

I don't think you will get that many lefties that disagree with that in principle.  The main problem is companies like Amazon and Starbucks that pay 1% tax and multi millionaires tax dodging with offshore accounts.

 

It sounded like Labour were prepared to start attacking these accounts but not a chance in hell with the tories!

[chipdawg]

In the lomg run over taxing achievers and wealth creators doesn't work, as our own Steve L stands testimony. (He was happy to pay tax when the rate was 40% but moved out when 50% was announced. So now that's 50% of diddly squat instead of 40% of a lot).

With the greatest will in the world, I don't think a financial bod like SL was paying 40% tax, though the rise to 50% may have been the catalyst for him to leave

I actually don't agree with a 50% tax rate: I don't think it's right that half the money you earn is swallowed up by the state before it even reaches your bank account. However, it's equally not right that some of the wealthiest firms and individuals are paying the square root of **** all. If all corporations and wealthy individuals paid their share there would be no need for that share to be anywhere near 50% of anything

[Barrs Court Red]

UKIP really are tossers. Farage resignation turned down....it's almost like that was always the plan.

[Kid in the Riot]

UKIP really are tossers. Farage resignation turned down....it's almost like that was always the plan.

 

Yep, least surprising news story of the day. Horrible news too, unfortunately.

[Red-Robbo]

Crikey. Bolivia and Iceland eh? The Guardian really do scrape the barrel these days. Will be interesting to see what happens in Bolivia once the hike in commodity prices ends and all they are left with is massive welfare bills and an inability to borrow. Maybe the children of Bolivia, who have just had the minimum age for working reduced to 10, will have to try a bit harder.

As regards the Scots they seem to think they can spend ever increasing amounts as long as someone else pays (The rich, the English, whoever).

In the lomg run over taxing achievers and wealth creators doesn't work, as our own Steve L stands testimony. (He was happy to pay tax when the rate was 40% but moved out when 50% was announced. So now that's 50% of diddly squat instead of 40% of a lot).

The impetus for him leaving was his retirement from the business, not the tqx rate. While he was working he remained in the UK.

Plus, as Chip points out, I very much doubt he paid anywhere near 40% of his income to the exchequer. That's the sort of thing people with mortgages and debts and with no helicopters have to do...

[Calculus]

I don't think you will get that many lefties that disagree with that in principle.  The main problem is companies like Amazon and Starbucks that pay 1% tax and multi millionaires tax dodging with offshore accounts.

 

It sounded like Labour were prepared to start attacking these accounts but not a chance in hell with the tories!

Well actually the Conservatives have done s fair bit to close loop holes and chase tax from multi nationals. The problem always is that in a trading economy like ours capital can move across borders with ease (and needs to, btw). Doing anything significant requires international agreements - sometimes with countries like Switzerland that are benefiting from such arrangements. On our own any government we elect will face difficulty. As part of the EU we stand a better chance of getting the changes we want.

[Stoke_Gifford_Red]

[Calculus]

The impetus for him leaving was his retirement from the business, not the tqx rate.

Sorry but that's nonsense. Steve was widely quoted at the time as moving because of the 50p rate. Please Google any number of sources. This is just one, but he was also quoted on local and national press as well as trade magazines such as Accountancy Age. He has also made the same statements on TV interviews.

http://guernseypress.com/news/2010/05/25/pay-50-tax-id-rather-be-in-guernsey/

The unfortunate truth is that there is a limit to how much tax people think is reasonable and any government going too far is asking for trouble. As we stand the top 1% of earners pay 30% of all income tax yet are still managed to be labelled as selfish by some. I wholeheartedly agree with others you think we need to do as much as we can to crack down on tax evasion and loop holes but introducing an aggressive regime that gets rid of ST and his like is counter productive.

[JM91]

You've got a nerve referring to "left wing loonies" considering the amount of factually incorrect nonsense you've posted on this thread so far... Of course many of the opinion polls are carried out confidentially and without prejudice so unfortunately once again your theory doesn't stack up.

 

I think the more likely explanation is that a lot of middle ground voters turned out for fear of an SNP/Labour coalition which the right wing media successfully promoted the ills of. Bottom line is it must have been a turnout issue as that many people can't have changed their minds at the last minute.

 

Dear KITR.  You're a moron.  although continue to bleat your nonsensical left wing nonsense and we shall see whether you stupid theory is correct.  Tory Rule forever if the ironically "liberal" bigots keep their nazi mindset in the future. 

[Aussie]

Interesting in the fallout of Labours bad defeat various analysis has stated the party became too obsessed with taking money from the top than focusing on the aspiration aspects for the future.

Principally what I've been saying - the taking money off the top harks back to the bad old 1980s Labour.

[IAmNick]

Sorry but that's nonsense. Steve was widely quoted at the time as moving because of the 50p rate. Please Google any number of sources. This is just one, but he was also quoted on local and national press as well as trade magazines such as Accountancy Age. He has also made the same statements on TV interviews.

http://guernseypress.com/news/2010/05/25/pay-50-tax-id-rather-be-in-guernsey/

The unfortunate truth is that there is a limit to how much tax people think is reasonable and any government going too far is asking for trouble. As we stand the top 1% of earners pay 30% of all income tax yet are still managed to be labelled as selfish by some. I wholeheartedly agree with others you think we need to do as much as we can to crack down on tax evasion and loop holes but introducing an aggressive regime that gets rid of ST and his like is counter productive.

 

The top 1% pay around 25% of income tax actually, with the top 10% paying 30% of it. But then again the top 1% own as much as the poorest 55% combined, and FIVE families here own as much as the bottom 20% of the entire country - probably a fair few on here and certainly a fair amount of South Bristol in there.  So you know, some would say that's the least they could do when you have an increasing number of people struggling to get by, but maybe that's just my totally wacky liberal leftist agenda or something.

 

 

Dear KITR.  You're a moron.  although continue to bleat your nonsensical left wing nonsense and we shall see whether you stupid theory is correct.  Tory Rule forever if the ironically "liberal" bigots keep their nazi mindset in the future. 

 

What an eloquent and compelling argument.

[Kid in the Riot]

Dear KITR.  You're a moron.  although continue to bleat your nonsensical left wing nonsense and we shall see whether you stupid theory is correct.  Tory Rule forever if the ironically "liberal" bigots keep their nazi mindset in the future. 

 

I think I'll leave it there, I don't want to embarrass you anymore with my "nonsensical left wing nonsense...!!!

[Red-Robbo]

Sorry but that's nonsense. Steve was widely quoted at the time as moving because of the 50p rate. Please Google any number of sources. This is just one, but he was also quoted on local and national press as well as trade magazines such as Accountancy Age. He has also made the same statements on TV interviews.

http://guernseypress.com/news/2010/05/25/pay-50-tax-id-rather-be-in-guernsey/

The unfortunate truth is that there is a limit to how much tax people think is reasonable and any government going too far is asking for trouble. As we stand the top 1% of earners pay 30% of all income tax yet are still managed to be labelled as selfish by some. I wholeheartedly agree with others you think we need to do as much as we can to crack down on tax evasion and loop holes but introducing an aggressive regime that gets rid of ST and his like is counter productive.

Well, he stepped back from the business at the same time, so we're both right.

It's a shame folks think that they need so much stuff - a few extra helicopters, some solid gold bog seats, maybe the odd basketball team - that they feel they have to leave the country and whinge about paying a marginal tax rate that is only a tad higher than that paid by some very modestly paid folk who will have financial worries that he and his family will never know.

But as I said before, there is no top tax rate this country could set that is so low that lots of people will not attempt to evade. We simply can never compete with the offer of Monaco. Jersey, Bermuda etc.

Trickle down economics works there because they are so bloody small: it doesn't work here.

So we need to make sure profits made on the UK, off the backs of UK people, are taxed in the UK. More than lip service is paid to criminalising schemes that clearly breach the law. And international action must be taken against the tax havens. Evasion should be socially unacceptable: at the moment we award peerages, knighthoods and other gongs to evaders.

It's easier to take collective action against tax shelters as part of a trade bloc like the EU. Germany and France have taken the lead against Liechtenstein and Switzerland, we have done virtually nothing.

[Up The City!]

Disgusting, why would anyone spray graffiti on a War memorial, makes me sick.

I am fumming. My grandmother was in the womens land army during the war and that memorial is a tribute to the role her and all the other women played during the war. My grandmother is now 94 and is deeply upset that this has been vandalised. I think everyone has the right to protest but by vandalising a war memorial the point they were trying to make has been taken away.

[Up The City!]

So with the SNP now a big force in parliament with all their seats is this the end of the Labour party? Think about it. In future elections the SNP will likely keep hold of those 56 seats (unless the voting system is changed) People will never vote Labour out of fear of a Lab-SNP coalition so whilst the SNP have so many seats Labour will never have a chance of getting back in.

[Red-Robbo]

So with the SNP now a big force in parliament with all their seats is this the end of the Labour party? Think about it. In future elections the SNP will likely keep hold of those 56 seats (unless the voting system is changed) People will never vote Labour out of fear of a Lab-SNP coalition so whilst the SNP have so many seats Labour will never have a chance of getting back in.

Er 9.5 million people did.

Electoral maths changes all the time. 60 years ago, Scotland was a Tory stronghold, the Liberals have been down lower than now, but they live on. I read that in the 4 days after the election 20,000 people joined the Labour Party. Its biggest ever surge, and the reversal of an 18-year decline.

Either Scotland gets independence, or there is no way the SNP hold 55 out of 58 seats.

The only party that may be in line for SDP style extinction is Ukip. Win or lose: where do you go after the referendum? Recent events have shown that they know they have absolutely no one with any sort of charisma other than Farage. There's no roots there.

[Up The City!]

As for UKIP you only need to look at the SNP who have got stronger after a referendum.

The Scottish referendum has changed the political landscape. Scotland are now a big force. Having the 56 seats gives Scotland a presence in Parliament. I very much doubt Labour or the Tories will ever win those seats back now.

[Stoke_Gifford_Red]

So with the SNP now a big force in parliament with all their seats is this the end of the Labour party? Think about it. In future elections the SNP will likely keep hold of those 56 seats (unless the voting system is changed) People will never vote Labour out of fear of a Lab-SNP coalition so whilst the SNP have so many seats Labour will never have a chance of getting back in.

Interestingly I saw an article on the BBC earlier which suggested the Labour party's internal polling was much more negative to the party. When the campaign started the Tories were therefore ahead in key marginals. As the campaign progressed, and especially after the initial debate, Labour got a boost but once the Labour-SNP coalition was talked about enough voters in England moved back to the Conservatives to give the result we got. Interestingly, many people in Scotland voted for the SNP on the basis of they would "speak up for Scotland" in a Labour-SNP coalition. Whether the SNP can sustain this is another matter though.

I would also echo what others have said - I don't think its the end for the Labour party. I can't see them being beaten in their uband heartlands and they continue tobbe the overwhelming favourites in the upcoming mayoral elections (London, Bristol and elsewhere).

In addition to Labour seeing a surge in support, the Lib Dems and the Greens have had massive increases in membership numbers (as well as SNP and PC), in fact the one party not shouting about record numbers of new members is the Conservative Party. It could be as they won the election they have no need to shout, but then again it could be the fact that they haven't had such a boost.

Edit: Here is a single source that collates all the membership info, or you could go to each particular party's website/twitter to get the same information.

[Red-Robbo]

As for UKIP you only need to look at the SNP who have got stronger after a referendum.

The Scottish referendum has changed the political landscape. Scotland are now a big force. Having the 56 seats gives Scotland a presence in Parliament. I very much doubt Labour or the Tories will ever win those seats back now.

So, your assertion is that the SNP will hold those seats in perpetuity.

That's a bold, and if you don't mind me saying quite crazy, prediction.

Did you predict in 1997 that there would never be a Tory government again? And if you're old enough, did you take a punt in 1979 at there never being a Labour PM again?

[Up The City!]

Im saying it would take something special for Lab-Con to win back the scottish seats. Just can't see it happening for at least 20+ years tbh and whilst the SNP hold so many seats the fear of a coalition with the Labour party will keep Labour out.

[Red-Robbo]

Im saying it would take something special for Lab-Con to win back the scottish seats. Just can't see it happening for at least 20+ years tbh and whilst the SNP hold so many seats the fear of a coalition with the Labour party will keep Labour out.

It can go two ways: independence - SNP then has nothing to react against, so would split into its different ideological factions. Can't see there being another vote any time soon however.

Non-independence: the SNP has failed. Their stance before the election of saying they will hold Labour to ransom has backfired. Scotland has the two things it doesn't want - a Tory government and further austerity. SNP is irrelevant in national politics. Slowly the penny is dropping and support will ebb from this particular high-water mark. A botched devolution deal will keep anger high to the SNP benefit, but it is likely the Scots will grow to see their SNP landslide has had the opposite effect than the one they hoped for.

[Red-Robbo]

Stuff that I've been saying on this thread put in perhaps easier to digest bullet points by real economists. 

 

Worth a read if you think Osborne's done a wonderful job with the economy. 

 

http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/six-reasons-you-dont-want-to-be-george-osborne-right-now

[Portland Bill]

So with the SNP now a big force in parliament with all their seats is this the end of the Labour party? Think about it. In future elections the SNP will likely keep hold of those 56 seats (unless the voting system is changed) People will never vote Labour out of fear of a Lab-SNP coalition so whilst the SNP have so many seats Labour will never have a chance of getting back in.

Anything can happen in politics,a few Tory defections, a couple die etc etc and they won't have a majority.

The next couple of years are going to be hell for some of the poorest people in the UK, opinions can change overnight.

Were all still waiting to see if an economic recovery actually takes place,this could go one of two ways still!

[Barrs Court Red]

Stuff that I've been saying on this thread put in perhaps easier to digest bullet points by real economists.

Worth a read if you think Osborne's done a wonderful job with the economy.

http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/six-reasons-you-dont-want-to-be-george-osborne-right-now

Not at all biased is it?

[Red-Robbo]

Not at all biased is it?

 

In what way? Which of the various facts in it do you wish to disprove?

[Kid in the Riot]

Not at all biased is it?

No piece of work is ever completely unbiased.

[Stoke_Gifford_Red]

Anything can happen in politics,a few Tory defections, a couple die etc etc and they won't have a majority.

The next couple of years are going to be hell for some of the poorest people in the UK, opinions can change overnight.

Were all still waiting to see if an economic recovery actually takes place,this could go one of two ways still!

As an example there were 17 byelections in the parliament elected in 2005 and 21 from the parliament elected in 2010. Of course, only a few of these resulted in a reduced majority for Labour and the coalition respectively. The problem for the Tories is when the governing majority is so low every seat lost will reduce the ability of the government to perform.

[Red-Robbo]

As an example there were 17 byelections in the parliament elected in 2005 and 21 from the parliament elected in 2010. Of course, only a few of these resulted in a reduced majority for Labour and the coalition respectively. The problem for the Tories is when the governing majority is so low every seat lost will reduce the ability of the government to perform.

 

The Major government had a larger majority than Cammy mk2: 21 seats, yet this had been eroded by by-election losses to make them dependent on UUP support to be able to survive a no confidence vote.