General Election 2015 Match Day Thread (Merged)

[Barrs Court Red]

In what way? Which of the various facts in it do you wish to disprove?

Take out the few true facts and you're left with an anti-austerity opinion piece.

For the 2nd time in a row, the people have voted for further cuts. At the start of the last parliament publications like this told us how spending cuts would lead to a double dip recession. They were wrong.

Economic growth up. Unemployment down.

We were told cuts to public services would be crippling. Shock horror, they weren't. The world carried on and services still get delivered.

So forgive me if I'm sceptical about a left leaning publication forecasting the end of civilisation.

[Barrs Court Red]

Edit. Double post

[Red-Robbo]

Take out the few true facts and you're left with an anti-austerity opinion piece.

For the 2nd time in a row, the people have voted for further cuts. At the start of the last parliament publications like this told us how spending cuts would lead to a double dip recession. They were wrong.

Economic growth up. Unemployment down.

We were told cuts to public services would be crippling. Shock horror, they weren't. The world carried on and services still get delivered.

So forgive me if I'm sceptical about a left leaning publication forecasting the end of civilisation.

 

That piece explains that the first tranche of cuts hit long-term investment, road building and other items "of least political harm" hardest.  You don't need to look very hard to find council services affected and extra charges being brought in as councils attempt to run services hit by the first tranche of cut - you yourself noted how South Gloucs were now charging for collections that had hitherto been free.

 

Growth is currently at 0.3%, with a number of sectors in recession, including construction and manufacturing, the traditional harbingers of another recession.   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32493745

 

I think the piece is fairly unsensational but points out how with extremely weak and slowing growth, harsher austerity measures will plunge us into another recession. They have to. Demand will be depressed and you don't have to be a professional economist to predict how that will hit an economy already suffering from very weak consumer demand.

 

Of course, Osborne may not do anything he has previously flagged up and the aspiration to run a surplus may just be so much hot air. Major and Thatcher ran deficits throughout their administrations without it being too much of an issue.

 

I think businesses everywhere - mine included - will hope he takes a pragmatic approach rather than an ideological doctrinaire one. The idea - set out in the Autumn statement - that you can return British state spending to a level that it was before the NHS and nuclear deterrent, and when most folk left school at 15, is frankly bonkers and frightening.

[Stoke_Gifford_Red]

Not at all biased is it?

This is backed up by opinions here from City analysts and international banks:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-economic-recovery-analysis-employment-and-real-wage-rise-myth-2015-5

[Monkeh]

looks like UKIP is imploading

[Kid in the Riot]

looks like UKIP is imploading

 

Awful shame.

 

Nigel Garage is on Question Time tonight if anyone fancies a laugh.

[Red-Robbo]

[Kid in the Riot]

[Aizoon]

Not just the tax take. It's the people at the bottom who spend the money that keeps the economy going. The people at the top salt it away in tax havens where it does nothing for the economy.

[screech]

Awful shame.

 

Nigel Garage is on Question Time tonight if anyone fancies a laugh.

 

For me he wipes the floor with most other politicians. A breath of fresh air compared to the bland say nothing interesting other types we have.

[Portland Bill]

[marshy]

[marshy]

Yep, which is in turn causing our productivity to shrink...

 

Major shortage of skilled workers. Do the Tories have a plan to address this? Increase tuition fees further perhaps?

You seem to hold the same opinion as Nigel Farage on this issue.

 

Anyway Kid I think you'll enjoy this link, probably sums up your own feelings.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11605231/BBC-reporter-turns-airways-blue-after-stumbling-over-Ukips-personality-cult.html

[Red-Robbo]

I'm sure it won't have escaped your attention Robbo that the two highlighted statements are connected. There is a vast pool of cheap available EU labour out there so why does a company need to bother to improve productivity.

 

Anyway, now that France is doing so well, at least until next month, maybe all those Frenchies in their seventh largest city (London) will just tootle off home.

 

If the connection was as straightforward as you say, Marshy, surely all EU countries would have similar productivity rates. Cheap Polish labour is available to French, German, Dutch, Swedish companies etc as well as ours.

 

It should surely be a matter of national embarrassment when Britain's productivity rate falls below Italy's!  Well done Mark Carney for bringing it up.

 

PS: these are quarterly figures not monthly ones. An update on the out-of-date quarterly figures the Conservatives were so fond of quoting during the election.

[Red-Robbo]

I noticed that, I was waiting for Esmond to bring it up

 

 

[marshy]

If the connection was as straightforward as you say, Marshy, surely all EU countries would have similar productivity rates. Cheap Polish labour is available to French, German, Dutch, Swedish companies etc as well as ours.

 

It should surely be a matter of national embarrassment when Britain's productivity rate falls below Italy's!  Well done Mark Carney for bringing it up.

 

PS: these are quarterly figures not monthly ones. An update on the out-of-date quarterly figures the Conservatives were so fond of quoting during the election.

 

Yes, it's difficult to know why they would choose the UK over and above all the other excellent opportunities available elsewhere. Maybe, amongst other things, the language is an enticement. 

[Red-Robbo]

Yes, it's difficult to know why they would choose the UK over and above all the other excellent opportunities available elsewhere. Maybe, amongst other things, the language is an enticement. 

 

I don't think they DO chose the UK over everywhere else, mate.

 

Germany has more, and there are substantial numbers in France, Holland, Belgium, Sweden and the north of Italy. In non-EU Norway recently arrived Poles make up more than 1.5% of the population.

[marshy]

I don't think they DO chose the UK over everywhere else, mate.

 

Germany has more, and there are substantial numbers in France, Holland, Belgium, Sweden and the north of Italy. In non-EU Norway recently arrived Poles make up more than 1.5% of the population.

 

Cheap Labour may force wages down as you say and may therefore reduce the tax take. It may have some impact upon productivity. Low productivity is an issue that has been apparent in this country for decades. We always seem to be near the bottom of the G7 table. Personally I think it's a matter of 'lies, damn lies, and statistics'. Do I have any faith in our figures? No. Do I have any faith in the stats produced by the French and Italians? Even less.

[Red-Robbo]

Cheap Labour may force wages down as you say and may therefore reduce the tax take. It may have some impact upon productivity. Low productivity is an issue that has been apparent in this country for decades. We always seem to be near the bottom of the G7 table. Personally I think it's a matter of 'lies, damn lies, and statistics'. Do I have any faith in our figures? No. Do I have any faith in the stats produced by the French and Italians? Even less.

 

Well, the stats are produced by the OECD. It's a relatively easy calculation based on hours worked and GDP.

 

Cheap labour is why organisations like the Institute of Directors and the CBI oppose any immigration quotas, and why Cameron hasn't really been trying very hard. Missing his target by nearly 300% and leaving net immigration much higher than it was during the last government. Imagine what a campaign issue it would have been had a Labour administration overseen those figures?!

 

I wish there was a bit more of a focus on quality of jobs rather than mere quality. Losing one skilled engineering job, but gaining two Romanians working part-time in Sports Direct is not much of an economic benefit to UK PLC.

[marshy]

Well, the stats are produced by the OECD. It's a relatively easy calculation based on hours worked and GDP.

 

Cheap labour is why organisations like the Institute of Directors and the CBI oppose any immigration quotas, and why Cameron hasn't really been trying very hard. Missing his target by nearly 300% and leaving net immigration much higher than it was during the last government. Imagine what a campaign issue it would have been had a Labour administration overseen those figures?!

 

I wish there was a bit more of a focus on quality of jobs rather than mere quality. Losing one skilled engineering job, but gaining two Romanians working part-time in Sports Direct is not much of an economic benefit to UK PLC.

 

Well here is one problem for a start. I read in the French press that, because of legal restrictions on hours allowed to be worked, it is common practice for workers to provide, or to be encouraged to provide, incorrect figures on their official time sheets. Esmond might be able to tell us more. 

[Red-Robbo]

Well here is one problem for a start. I read in the French press that, because of legal restrictions on hours allowed to be worked, it is common practice for workers to provide, or to be encouraged to provide, incorrect figures on their official time sheets. Esmond might be able to tell us more. 

 

That would make them less productive, not more.

 

Politicians - who all tend to be pretty part-time in their working hours - tend to be proud that the rest of us work longer hours in the UK than most other Europeans.

 

I think the exact opposite.

[marshy]

That would make them less productive, not more.

 

Politicians - who all tend to be pretty part-time in their working hours - tend to be proud that the rest of us work longer hours in the UK than most other Europeans.

 

I think the exact opposite.

 

No, the opposite I think Robbo. They enter fewer hours than those worked otherwise they would be breaking the law. Fewer hours for greater output =increased productivity. Yep, we probably do work too many hours here, well you guys do. I'm retired and take all day doing a job which used to take ten minutes. Maybe that's another reason for low productivity in this country, too many old guys still working...I've seen that put forward as a reason.

[chipdawg]

The reason I've seen posited for low productivity here is because we have such a large service sector (78% of GDP) which distorts the productivity of the workers within it. I would also suggest that having a large public sector within which most of the profit-generating parts have been sold off also distorts our productivity

With regards immigrants and productivity, there's no evidence to suggest it makes a damn bit of difference. The UK is firmly mid-table with regards percentage of workforce born outside the EU or in other EU nations. In terms of straight numbers, I think The Germans have the most and Ze efficiency of Ze Germans is legendary, yes?

This is a really interesting article in City AM from last year- definitely biased towards the City's interest in maintaining EU membership, but interesting and convincing none the less

http://www.cityam.com/1413900278/uk-vs-europe-migration-map%3A-why-immigration-is-good-for-the-economy-and-immigrants-arent-stealing-british-jobs

[Kid in the Riot]

The reason I've seen posited for low productivity here is because we have such a large service sector (78% of GDP) which distorts the productivity of the workers within it. I would also suggest that having a large public sector within which most of the profit-generating parts have been sold off also distorts our productivity

With regards immigrants and productivity, there's no evidence to suggest it makes a damn bit of difference. The UK is firmly mid-table with regards percentage of workforce born outside the EU or in other EU nations. In terms of straight numbers, I think The Germans have the most and Ze efficiency of Ze Germans is legendary, yes?

This is a really interesting article in City AM from last year- definitely biased towards the City's interest in maintaining EU membership, but interesting and convincing none the less

http://www.cityam.com/1413900278/uk-vs-europe-migration-map%3A-why-immigration-is-good-for-the-economy-and-immigrants-arent-stealing-british-jobs

 

What I do know about Germany is that when they get in the office/factory they work their nuts off. Their working environment is different to ours.

 

They get into work early, but finish early - sometimes 3/4pm. Same goes for schools where kids are often in class at 8am or earlier but finish by 2pm.

 

In an office environment in Germany using your personal mobile phone, messing around on the internet all day (ahem) or even chatting about anything other than work is simply not tolerated. Maybe this culture has something to do with why they score high on productivity?

[Red-Robbo]

No, the opposite I think Robbo. They enter fewer hours than those worked otherwise they would be breaking the law. Fewer hours for greater output =increased productivity. Yep, we probably do work too many hours here, well you guys do. I'm retired and take all day doing a job which used to take ten minutes. Maybe that's another reason for low productivity in this country, too many old guys still working...I've seen that put forward as a reason.

Get you now, Marshy. Was reading your post incorrectly before.

Yep, there's probably a bit of what you say, a bit of Chip's over-large service sector (we let manufacturing die - others didn't) and what Kid observes about workplace culture.

I also think it's a lot to do with a failure of British management to invest in new technology and staff training. Shareholder profits and executive salaries have been maximised at the expense of long-term growth plans.

If you take the oft-quoted example of the British car industry in the 70s. It is often held up as an example of a sector brought to its knees by strikes - many led by my namesake! - and a "tea-break" culture in the workforce. The reality is more nuanced: British car workers put in many more hours than their continental rivals, but pay rises were hampered because productivity was low as bosses refused to invest in the technology that was being used abroad. The fact that some of the models produced were shit didn't help, but that again was a by-product of poor investment.

[PHILINFRANCE]

No, the opposite I think Robbo. They enter fewer hours than those worked otherwise they would be breaking the law. Fewer hours for greater output =increased productivity. Yep, we probably do work too many hours here, well you guys do. I'm retired and take all day doing a job which used to take ten minutes. Maybe that's another reason for low productivity in this country, too many old guys still working...I've seen that put forward as a reason.

 

You are sort of correct Marshy.

 

Senior management staff, 'cadres', salaried employees, but 'managers' nevertheless, are still restricted to the famous 35 hour week: they do not need to clock in/out and, of course, work whatever hours are necessary to perform their role - 40, 50 or more hours a week, but still counted at 35 hours.

[Red-Robbo]

You are sort of correct Marshy.

Senior management staff, 'cadres', salaried employees, but 'managers' nevertheless, are still restricted to the famous 35 hour week: they do not need to clock in/out and, of course, work whatever hours are necessary to perform their role - 40, 50 or more hours a week, but still counted at 35 hours.

With management comes responsibilities. I probably work at least 50% more hours than the rest of my staff.

It doesn't always follow though. At the first Mrs Robbo's place of employment, her boss used his executive position to spend every other day playing golf!

[AshtonGreat]

What I do know about Germany is that when they get in the office/factory they work their nuts off. Their working environment is different to ours.

 

They get into work early, but finish early - sometimes 3/4pm. Same goes for schools where kids are often in class at 8am or earlier but finish by 2pm.

 

In an office environment in Germany using your personal mobile phone, messing around on the internet all day (ahem) or even chatting about anything other than work is simply not tolerated. Maybe this culture has something to do with why they score high on productivity?

Yeah and why they're all so bloody miserable

[Esmond Million's Bung]

At last a proper socialist policy that might actually help people, from Frankie should have gone to Hollande, mind you it took him over 3 years to come with it.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/22/france-to-force-big-supermarkets-to-give-away-unsold-food-to-charity?CMP=fb_gu

[Red-Robbo]

An Nobel Laureate economist gives his view of George Osborne's "stunning success" that the 37% of the electorate bought into.

 

He thinks it's not all that...

 

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/may/24/joseph-stiglitz-interview-uk-economy-lost-decade-zero-growth?CMP=share_btn_fb