We’ve reached the crossroads - January transfer window

[BS4 on Tour...]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

17th could be classed as lower mid-table.

He inherited a mess in 2016 so did okay to steer us to 18th- where was your expectation for when he came in??

To use that as a stick to beat him with is a bit out of context,, the 18th place I mean.

To me 1st to 8th is top of the table, 9th to 16th is mid-table and 17th to 24th is bottom - but I suppose everyone has their own definitions - I wasn’t using anything as a stick to beat LJ with, I was merely responding to a post which said LJ had finished in a mid-table position for the last eight seasons - I didn’t agree with it. 

I had no expectations when he was appointed, I was just disappointed we hadn’t gone for a manager with a proven track record at this level ...

[Mendip City]

8 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Cheers for the reply. I think one of your points above is very interesting - “..it’s a strange one why he’s still so highly rated ... or so we’re told...”  - you’re right, i’ve regularly read that LJ is regarded as a progressive, innovative, go-ahead young coach..” etc - but I’ve never read who has actually said that, or who actually thinks that - and those three terms don’t actually make much sense in the context of being a football coach - perhaps he does some ‘innovative’ stuff (measuring the grass at away grounds before the games?) but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s effective ... and ‘progressive’ and ‘go-ahead’ are just media soundbites without much obvious definition...

The other thing which is bothering me about LJ is what feels like striking similarities with his dad’s record here. Started positively - promotion and playoffs - Gary, stability and cup run -Lee.  
gary then went off the boil, constant shuffling of teams and transfers of like for like standard, the play became stale and defensive... paralysed by fear of losing, fear of the opposition... is Lee going the same way? also... Is Kasey Palmer the new Lee Trundle - flair player signed and not used effectively? 

[Davefevs]

28 minutes ago, mozo said:

Woof woof! I like that team but replace Weimann with new striker please and ensure Palmer is replaced if he can't perform.

That’s fair.

Been looking back at the accounts (FFP) of BCH Ltd (all rounded to nearest £0.1m):

Rolling period - 16/17-18/19

16/17 - £6.6m loss (reduce by £3m for FFP allowances) = £3.6m loss 

17/18 - £25.3m loss (ditto) = £22.3m loss 

18/19 - £11.0m profit (ditto) = £14.0m profit (inc Kelly transfer)

Total: £11.9m loss over 3 year period, well inside £39.0m FFP, but this includes £15m for Kelly.  Would’ve been £26.9m loss otherwise.

So now we go into the current 3 year period:

17/18 - £25.3m loss (ditto) = £22.3m loss 

18/19 - £11.0m profit (ditto) = £14.0m profit (inc Kelly transfer)

Total so far: £8.3m loss

What is our starting position for this season 19/20?

Income Projection: £31.0m (average attendance similar)

Transfer Profit:  £1.0m (See detail below*)

Sub: £32.0m

Minus:

Wages: £33.0m (rising 10% year on year)

Amortisation: £12.0m

Op Costs: £16.0m

Sub: £61.0m

Total Loss: £29m, offset by FFP allowances of £3.0m) = £26.0m

So £8.3m loss plus £26.0m loss = £34.3m loss.

Leaves £4.7m (transfer / loan fee, signing on fee, agent fee, wages) for January.

* £25.0m out during summer (Bentley, Pereira - loan fee, Dasilva, Kalas, Szmodics, Palmer, Massengo, Nagy, Afobe - loan fee)

* £26.0m in during summer (Webster, Pack, Eisa, Freeman - sell-on)

* I’ve not included signing on fees, agent fees in the signings we made this summer, but with wages increased, it will be roughly in the right ball-park!

So....

.....LJ needs to trade to bring in two strikers unless they are loans!  You don’t get your 20-goal man for a couple of million!!  Merry Xmas everyone...eek!

 

 

[cidered abroad]

3 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Interested to see your financial workings etc.

https://www.efl.com/-more/governance/efl-rules--regulations/appendix-5---financial-fair-play-regulations/

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/01501663/filing-history

Fill yer boots!

I've the following questions therefore for you:

Could you give some financial parameters here? Expensive loans, expensive fees- disregard £25m loss in 2017/18?

Could quite possibly be a way- though I think one more striker needed due to the Afobe thing. However there's no doubt we can get more.

Comes back to 1. a bit.

• Do we know Johnson's salary? What we do know is that he has 3.5 years or thereabouts left on his deal- one year payoff or three and a half years that we have to take a hit on?
• Will coaching staff be kept or retained?
• Will new man want his own coaching staff?
• Costs of replacing current ones? Costs of bringing in new- again, if contracted to a club it all costs.

Not one bit of this is exempt from FFP. Could yet have the hypothetical costs of 3.5 years of LJ contract, coaching staff severance, paying a club to get their manager, paying a club or clubs to reunite their favoured coaching staff- as well as the salaries for the new manager/managerial team!

Very costly business for a club, potentially. But then again, get the right man and it could pay off in the most lucrative way (promotion)!

If we have a second half of the season that mirrors the barren runs of the last three years, then 15,000 season tickets could drop considerably. Being bored to tears for 23 home games is not worth paying for.

I stayed home for the Blackburn match. How many others did the same?

We are wasting the opportunity to set City up for a long time to come by not getting to the Prem, even if only for one year. While all the others are leaving us behind.

[Whale Eye Beef Hooked]

I think lee gets the best out of his players. That’s why we are able to buy cheap and sell on for millions.   You can say Kasey hasn’t improved but he was hardly a starter at Blackburn so that is work in progress.  There aren’t many that have gone downhill under his coaching so credit due to him.   
I tbink his downfall is he overthinks tactics a bit. 
let’s get a settled formation and the players can work at it solidly 3-4-3 for me.  We are better with 3 at the back and elliason can play with weinman and a new striker  with a solid base behind.  
I back LJ to stay unless we finish out of the top 6 then it may be time to re think but if we do change then the squad could get ripped up and we go back to a re-build 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

FWIW I’d be going with a lop-sided 4411, that looks something like this (next choice in brackets):

                                                           Bentley (Mäenpää)

           Hunt (Pereira) | Kalas (Moore) | Williams (Baker) | Dasilva (Rowe)

Brownhill (Szmodics) | Nagy (Smith) | Massengo (Morrell) | Eliasson (O’Dowda)

                                                           Palmer (Paterson)

                                                        Weimann (Diedhiou / Semenyo)

Brownhill is narrow, Eliasson wide, so we’ll be a bit unbalanced.  I don’t care!!

These are the 23 players (Dasilva aside) I would give a run of games to.  The players in brackets are ready to replace.  No pissing about with picking players in positions to keep them in the side.  Kasey if you don’t perform, Paterson comes in.  Coach them, drill them.

So what about the players outside of this?

Gilmartin - continue coaching responsibilities.  (Bloody nice bloke by the way)

O’Leary - either he’s Niki’s replacement next season or we move him on....think he’ll be Bents’s no2 next season.

Wright (Vyner) - contract up, decide between him and Vyner, and what their view on being back up is

Pring - continue to develop with loans until ready

Walsh - tough one, he’s the one who’ll bite us on the bum if we let him move on, but he ain’t getting game time here

Watkins - I don’t see a place for him even though I think he can be effective

Taylor - toss up between him and Pato as my no10, and if he wasn’t out of contract I’d be tempted to keep him for his pest skills, but Pato with a rocket up bus arse has undoubted quality, and could rekindle 17/18 form in the no10 with a less exposed midfield behind him.  If Semenyo was to go on loan and Morrell be Club-developed, then I might keep him until we bring in a striker.

Rodri - have to move on, but because he can’t get game time.

I know you can all pick holes in, but as it stands there is not enough consistency of selection, players being picked not necessarily on merit.

Its a bit football-managery I admit, but as we aren’t privy to the inside goings-on, what else can we do with our opinions.

This is a squad that is much better than the one we saw over the last couple of games.

 

Absolutely agree with this side- and this way forward.

4-4-1-1, like with the 2 wins but Palmer for Diedhiou in behind.

The only bit I might disagree on, and this is me looking further forward, possibly with regards developing the style, the higher line, possesion- would be Moore and Kalas as a pair- both are younger, both can therefore play a bit higher and yeah technically, Moore the adventurous, Kalas the more conservative but competent nonetheless but a stopper, seems a way to go.

Think I'd keep Walsh as well.

[Mr Popodopolous]

20 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

If we have a second half of the season that mirrors the barren runs of the last three years, then 15,000 season tickets could drop considerably. Being bored to tears for 23 home games is not worth paying for.

I stayed home for the Blackburn match. How many others did the same?

We are wasting the opportunity to set City up for a long time to come by not getting to the Prem, even if only for one year. While all the others are leaving us behind.

True. Thing is, I wonder how big a window we have to make the PL, in a sense- at least short-medium term.

Concerted mid table to top half/playoff pushng Championship workings...can't help but feel that it's as good as it gets for a while- if promotion not achieved, this or next season!

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Absolutely agree with this side- and this way forward.

4-4-1-1, like with the 2 wins but Palmer for Diedhiou in behind.

The only bit I might disagree on, and this is me looking further forward, possibly with regards developing the style, the higher line, possesion- would be Moore and Kalas as a pair- both are younger, both can therefore play a bit higher and yeah technically, Moore the adventurous, Kalas the more conservative but competent nonetheless but a stopper, seems a way to go.

Think I'd keep Walsh as well.

Good points Mr P.  I too would like a high line, just in the interim, go with experience, easing Moore in when possible / necessary.

Walsh, I’ll happily admit is my “blind spot”, and I said he might be the one to bite me on the arse.  But I’ll live with that.

['Orns]

2 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

So lose the next 5 and you’d be alright with that cos he’s earned the right to stop until the end of the season?

Hypothetical, Fordy

We could very well win the best 5 and you'd still want him out

 

[downendcity]

On 22/12/2019 at 14:49, Lez said:

He signed engvall and Watkins that's enough for the chop in my book.

Good thing Man U didn't  sack Fergie after he signed Ralph Milne! 

[Red-Robbo]

7 hours ago, JonDolman said:

I disagree with that. Preston always play one up front and they have Stockley, Nugent or Barkhuizen doing that role. None of those are that good but it seems to work.

Even WBA, the best team in the league only have Robson Kanu up top. He doesn't score that many.

We went on a 15 game unbeaten run, winning most of those games with Fam up top on his own. 

I don't see what this Fam and Weimann partnership does. Weimann doesn't seem to want the ball unless he's in space. 

We've tried Fam up top alone multiple times. It results in very few goals, as he's too slow to break through anyone's back line. You have players up waiting to cross to him, but he isn't in the box. Meanwhile possession is lost.

5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That'll just open the midfield and expose us even more I reckon- certainly if LJ continues along his current path.

 

I was assuming LJ would bring in a decent forward midfielder, not just A.N.Other striker.

[BS4 on Tour...]

2 hours ago, Mendip City said:

The other thing which is bothering me about LJ is what feels like striking similarities with his dad’s record here. Started positively - promotion and playoffs - Gary, stability and cup run -Lee.  
gary then went off the boil, constant shuffling of teams and transfers of like for like standard, the play became stale and defensive... paralysed by fear of losing, fear of the opposition... is Lee going the same way? also... Is Kasey Palmer the new Lee Trundle - flair player signed and not used effectively? 

You’ve made another stonking point - we’ve had some seriously talented football players over the years and they eventually get shunted out cos we can’t accommodate them - not pretending it’s easy to find a starting place for these guys but Southampton didn’t find it difficult to fit Matt Le Tissier into every line up .... it’s been done to death, but we couldn’t do the same with the likes of Jacki, Noble, JET, Trundle and probably Palmer now ....

[Street red]

On 22/12/2019 at 14:49, mozo said:

I think you make a very good point but... it's not just 3 bad results/performances is it? 4 defeats in 6, and poor performances for much of the season, especially at home, and even in some games we won.

Very true we haven't been at the races all season it started against Crystal palace in the friendly plus last seasons games at home.

 

[Fordy62]

2 hours ago, 'Orns said:

Hypothetical, Fordy

We could very well win the best 5 and you'd still want him out

 

My hatred is about shit football so yeh, if he fluked his way to the 5 playing the way we’ve been playing...

[redsquirrel]

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

FWIW I’d be going with a lop-sided 4411, that looks something like this (next choice in brackets):

                                                           Bentley (Mäenpää)

           Hunt (Pereira) | Kalas (Moore) | Williams (Baker) | Dasilva (Rowe)

Brownhill (Szmodics) | Nagy (Smith) | Massengo (Morrell) | Eliasson (O’Dowda)

                                                           Palmer (Paterson)

                                                        Weimann (Diedhiou / Semenyo)

Brownhill is narrow, Eliasson wide, so we’ll be a bit unbalanced.  I don’t care!!

These are the 23 players (Dasilva aside) I would give a run of games to.  The players in brackets are ready to replace.  No pissing about with picking players in positions to keep them in the side.  Kasey if you don’t perform, Paterson comes in.  Coach them, drill them.

So what about the players outside of this?

Gilmartin - continue coaching responsibilities.  (Bloody nice bloke by the way)

O’Leary - either he’s Niki’s replacement next season or we move him on....think he’ll be Bents’s no2 next season.

Wright (Vyner) - contract up, decide between him and Vyner, and what their view on being back up is

Pring - continue to develop with loans until ready

Walsh - tough one, he’s the one who’ll bite us on the bum if we let him move on, but he ain’t getting game time here

Watkins - I don’t see a place for him even though I think he can be effective

Taylor - toss up between him and Pato as my no10, and if he wasn’t out of contract I’d be tempted to keep him for his pest skills, but Pato with a rocket up bus arse has undoubted quality, and could rekindle 17/18 form in the no10 with a less exposed midfield behind him.  If Semenyo was to go on loan and Morrell be Club-developed, then I might keep him until we bring in a striker.

Rodri - have to move on, but because he can’t get game time.

I know you can all pick holes in, but as it stands there is not enough consistency of selection, players being picked not necessarily on merit.

Its a bit football-managery I admit, but as we aren’t privy to the inside goings-on, what else can we do with our opinions.

This is a squad that is much better than the one we saw over the last couple of games.

 

I wrote a list of who id keep and let the rest go if we are reducing and getting quality.if offers came of course.

they are.. Bentley,hunt,dasilva,wright,smith,brownhill,diedhiou,gilmartin,weimann,semenyo,eliasson,kalas,moore,rowe,williams,pereiro,maenpaa,afobe ??, massengo.

recall morrell and taylor. I still think he can do a job and pato back too.

would that free up enough for a quality midfielder and 1st class striker? with a good striker too.

[AppyDAZE]

2 hours ago, 'Orns said:

Hypothetical, Fordy

We could very well win the next 5 and you'd still want him out

 

4 out of the next 6 at home (counting the cup) and let's face it, some very winnable games on paper.

Now is the time to shut us "moaners" up. it's now or never.

 

[Davefevs]

23 minutes ago, redsquirrel said:

I wrote a list of who id keep and let the rest go if we are reducing and getting quality.if offers came of course.

they are.. Bentley,hunt,dasilva,wright,smith,brownhill,diedhiou,gilmartin,weimann,semenyo,eliasson,kalas,moore,rowe,williams,pereiro,maenpaa,afobe ??, massengo.

recall morrell and taylor. I still think he can do a job and pato back too.

would that free up enough for a quality midfielder and 1st class striker? with a good striker too.

Depends how much you get (if anything) for the ones that go, assuming you can get rid of them. 

['Orns]

1 hour ago, Fordy62 said:

My hatred is about shit football so yeh, if he fluked his way to the 5 playing the way we’ve been playing...

Come on, you don't 'fluke' your way into the top 5 of the Championship. It's a ****** of a league with parachute payments and massive clubs who pay higher wages. We are fighting with the big boys now, we want who they want. You know my views on this well enough, I'm reticent to tear this down to start it again. Another new manager, another new squad, three / four years of building it all up again. Who would you replace LJ with?

1 hour ago, AppyDAZE said:

4 out of the next 6 at home (counting the cup) and let's face it, some very winnable games on paper.

Now is the time to shut us "moaners" up. it's now or never.

 

'at home' *shudders

Don't get me wrong, and I had this conversation with Fordy in the summer, if we end up 10th come May then SL has a big decision to make. I don't see how LJ survives if that is how it pans out and he couldn't have any qualms if he gets the sack

My glass is still very much half full

[Mr Popodopolous]

Brentford will be tough.

SHOULD aim for 4 pts and quite possibly 6 from the next 2, but while not impossible a point vs Brentford would be okay IMO, would be alright. Problem is the failings in the past 3 games puts a lot of pressure on that one too.

Very decent side, think only the top 2 have outperformed them over last 15 games, almost 2 goals per game, 2 points per game in that time. Point would be okay and had we got say 4 pts v Millwall and Blackburn that would take some pressure off that one. 

[Mendip City]

5 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

My hatred is about shit football so yeh, if he fluked his way to the 5 playing the way we’ve been playing...

That’s the problem isn’t it? He’s always capable of stringing a run of good results together.... inevitably followed by a run of disappointing ones BUT when was the last run of decent, entertaining performances? That feels a long, long time ago. 

[Mendip City]

6 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

You’ve made another stonking point - we’ve had some seriously talented football players over the years and they eventually get shunted out cos we can’t accommodate them - not pretending it’s easy to find a starting place for these guys but Southampton didn’t find it difficult to fit Matt Le Tissier into every line up .... it’s been done to death, but we couldn’t do the same with the likes of Jacki, Noble, JET, Trundle and probably Palmer now ....

Is it the same at every club or something about us? We’re quite a cautious club and manager and don’t tend to “roll the dice” in any way. You could Probably add Eliasson to your list. We don’t get the best out of flair players, we don’t blood young players (despite all the chatter about the academy). 

[Davefevs]

8 hours ago, Mendip City said:

Is it the same at every club or something about us? We’re quite a cautious club and manager and don’t tend to “roll the dice” in any way. You could Probably add Eliasson to your list. We don’t get the best out of flair players, we don’t blood young players (despite all the chatter about the academy). 

For me that is one of the things what’s missing from our identity....blooding young players that are ours.  No better buzz when a Joe, a Lloyd, a Bobby are playing well (for us).  This season we haven’t had one.  I don’t even think most people see Antoine as one of our own, and we are left to marvel at a young player from Monaco.  There is something about one of our own players making his debut and the fans “I was there when....”.

I accept our current crop might not be quite there ability wise, but sometimes they make that leap.  Morrell did perfectly fine when he played last season, as did Max.  I know this is a big beef of @Shtanley’s, and although I don’t 100% agree with him, I’d sooner have a smaller squad if “Senior” players and challenge the young’uns to sink or swim.  As it is they are wearing armbands and we don’t know whether they can cut it.  We have to be prepared for the odd player to be let go, and come back and bite us on the arse.

[mozo]

13 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Brentford will be tough.

SHOULD aim for 4 pts and quite possibly 6 from the next 2, but while not impossible a point vs Brentford would be okay IMO, would be alright. Problem is the failings in the past 3 games puts a lot of pressure on that one too.

Very decent side, think only the top 2 have outperformed them over last 15 games, almost 2 goals per game, 2 points per game in that time. Point would be okay and had we got say 4 pts v Millwall and Blackburn that would take some pressure off that one. 

Bolt on Wigan away and I think 8 points from 4 games should be a reasonable target if we intend to be a solid play off contender. 

So, four points from Luton and Brentford at home, and four points from Charlton and Wigan away. 

As you point out, we've put ourselves back under pressure to accumulate points and this run represents a great chance to do so, but also to put this negativity behind us.

 

[Mendip City]

6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

For me that is one of the things what’s missing from our identity....blooding young players that are ours.  No better buzz when a Joe, a Lloyd, a Bobby are playing well (for us).  This season we haven’t had one.  I don’t even think most people see Antoine as one of our own, and we are left to marvel at a young player from Monaco.  There is something about one of our own players making his debut and the fans “I was there when....”.

I accept our current crop might not be quite there ability wise, but sometimes they make that leap.  Morrell did perfectly fine when he played last season, as did Max.  I know this is a big beef of @Shtanley’s, and although I don’t 100% agree with him, I’d sooner have a smaller squad if “Senior” players and challenge the young’uns to sink or swim.  As it is they are wearing armbands and we don’t know whether they can cut it.  We have to be prepared for the odd player to be let go, and come back and bite us on the arse.

I’m completely with you on a small, high quality squad. That gives the young players a (to use the buzzword) “pathway”. It’s a pathway to prove you are or aren’t good enough.  That’s interesting for us fans. Right now the pathway is clogged with the Bailey Wright’s, Marley Watkins’ of this world. Not their fault but the squad is too big and they, amongst others, are out of favour with the regime. 
Interesting point about O’Leary, he only got his chance out of desperation... even then Johnson tried to replace him with that clown from New Zealand. Same with Moore, only got his chance because we were literally out of defenders... where would both players have been without desperation, released probably. How many players are kept hanging around so long that they go off the boil or we’re never going to be good enough? 
I’d love to see more of our own players blooded but what really annoys me is all the praise heaped on themselves by the club (SL, MA, LJ) about development of youth.... there’s no production line and the manager isn’t challenged to use youth (otherwise surely he wouldn’t be allowed a squad of this size). 
I've always thought it would be great to see manager’s objectives - obviously something about first team progress but there must be other challenges around balancing home grown and signings from outside the club. 

[Major Isewater]

I would like to think that , as a club , we are relying on more than three bad results as a basis to sack the coaching staff . 
 

There will surely come a time when we see their performance levels drop off and the team stops responding but now is not that time.

 I share the frustration of , once again, appearing so close and yet blowing the opportunity to cement our good position in the table and dream that a new miracle working coach , like Hughton , would come in and shoot us comfortably up into the Premier league but this is Bristol City, we have history of turning gold into brown smelly stuff . 
 

The gamble would most likely fail leaving us in an expensive and dangerous upheaval . 
 

I believe that we should review the position of the coaching staff at the end of the season and am convinced  that Mark Ashton is not only monitoring potential player signings but equally  potential coaches for the future .

 

[bristolcitysweden]

SL will stick to his half relative LJ til 2025. If we are not promoted by then LJ will be gifted a "position" for his effort and Steve will go all in as time is doing the same.

[Curr Avon]

I've read pages of posts on this thread and no-one has mentioned Noele Gordon. Right kids?

 

[Major Isewater]

2 hours ago, Curr Avon said:

I've read pages of posts on this thread and no-one has mentioned Noele Gordon. Right kids?

 

Festive name actress who appeared in amazingly bad soap . 
 

Just for you Mr Avon .

 

Happy Christmas  

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Curr Avon said:

I've read pages of posts on this thread and no-one has mentioned Noele Gordon. Right kids?

 

More worried if someone mentioned Benny!!

[RobintheRed Red]

On 22/12/2019 at 14:40, Lez said:

None of thoe will happen. He will get some faces in 2 or 3 and itll be same old until the summer.

He will get a couple of loans cant trust him with anymore big cash