Points lost from winning positions

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, spudski said:

11 minutes...is that all. How frustrating for all concerned.

I think I also heard we haven't won a 3 pm KO this season! Haven't checked. Free stat for ya

No we haven’t.

Last season we were W25 mins / D40 mins / L25 mins / 55 points @ 1.195 ppg

Early season 8 points @ 1.333 ppg

A bit of progress, with essentially a similar team.  The longest unbeaten run under Nigel Pearson.  The longest unbeaten run since games 3-11 (9) in season 19/20.

Lucky we have a 19:45 kick off coming up

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

My simplistic perhaps plain wrong stats aside, my thoughts are.

Pts dropped from winning positions, 1st goal feels key IMO- 5.

Pts gained from losing positions- 1.

We're net 4 worse off.

Forget what it was last season.

Well I've skimmed last seasons games.

After scoring vs after conceding the 1st goal, the net impact was -24!! Which must be right up there for worst in the division.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[mozo]

17 hours ago, Davefevs said:

FWIW we’ve conceded 2 goals in the opening 15 mins of games and 2 in the final 15 mins (plus injury time).

We’ve conceded 3 in the 61-75 mins period.

Maybe we ought to be analysing why we haven’t scored in that last 15 min period.  Maybe that’s the outlier?

It was the spate of late goals conceded last season that drove me mad. 

Taking the lead in the first half and then conceding isn't as maddening unless it's a game in which we've wasted a string of chances and squandered a strong position.

The frustrations for me v Blackpool were first that we kept going behind despite our dominance, and then conceded a late goal. A triple dose of disappointment. 

But as your stats point out, we're not yet conclusively seeing a trend towards last gasp capitulation. 

[Nogbad the Bad]

On 28/08/2022 at 01:47, The Journalist said:

I don’t really understand why Harry is copping it here - it’s a fact that in 15 of our past 16 games we’ve led but only won seven. We keep getting ourselves into a winning position but don’t see it out.

 

It depends how you define a winning position.

We have developed a happy knack of scoring first and often very early in the game - and so nearly did the same with Wells hitting the post in the first minute at Blackpool.

But if City score first in the first 10 minutes does that really constitute being in a winning position?

Not to me - it means we've landed the first blow, drawn first blood etc, but anything can happen in the following 80+ minutes and the opposition will always get their periods of dominance and their own chances to score.

The great thing is we are scoring goals and can feel confident of scoring another should it be required - and if there's time!

The not so good thing is our mistakes are seized on so ruthlessly by the opposition.

We're not quite there yet, certainly room for defensive improvement, but it's great we're going out to score first and so often succeed. We then have a cushion that  makes getting at least a point more likely, but going behind early can also galvanise the opposition and at Championship level taking the lead early has never felt like being in a winning position to me.

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

It depends how you define a winning position.

We have developed a happy knack of scoring first and often very early in the game - and so nearly did the same with Wells hitting the post in the first minute at Blackpool.

But if City score first in the first 10 minutes does that really constitute being in a winning position?

Not to me - it means we've landed the first blow, drawn first blood etc, but anything can happen in the following 80+ minutes and the opposition will always get their periods of dominance and their own chances to score.

The great thing is we are scoring goals and can feel confident of scoring another should it be required - and if there's time!

The not so good thing is our mistakes are seized on so ruthlessly by the opposition.

We're not quite there yet, certainly room for defensive improvement, but it's great we're going out to score first and so often succeed. We then have a cushion that  makes getting at least a point more likely, but going behind early can also galvanise the opposition and at Championship level taking the lead early has never felt like being in a winning position to me.

That’s an interesting way of looking at it, e.g. result changes from minute 76 onwards (last 15 plus injury time),giving both teams a good opportunity to have their share of the game.

Hull - drawing to losing - minus 1

Sunderland - losing to losing - nil

Wigan - drawing to drawing - nil

Luton - winning to winning - nil

Cardiff - winning to winning - nil

Blackpool - winning to drawing - minus 2

Total - minus 3

Of course it’s a selective way of looking at it, but so is taking a single leading event and taking the final result too.

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 hours ago, mozo said:

It was the spate of late goals conceded last season that drove me mad. 

Taking the lead in the first half and then conceding isn't as maddening unless it's a game in which we've wasted a string of chances and squandered a strong position.

The frustrations for me v Blackpool were first that we kept going behind despite our dominance, and then conceded a late goal. A triple dose of disappointment. 

But as your stats point out, we're not yet conclusively seeing a trend towards last gasp capitulation. 

What are the net figures, do you mean last 10, 15 plus stoppage btw for goals conceded?

All the same, goals affecting match position for and against...I'll have a quick look, probably isnt good reading.

Say from 76 mins to end of stoppage time.

Rather shockingly a rough and rather low detail analysis has it computing out at 0 net. GD a different matter of course.

Take the two points we dropped at home to West Brom. Late, late late...well gotta include Weimann making it 2-1 in that, as it fell within the right period.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[spudski]

Here's a really good table showing how many goals are scored and conceded in 10 minute segments. For all Championship Clubs.

It's interesting this season...as weve scored 3 in the first ten minutes, but also conceded 2. However...we haven't conceded a goal from 10 mins to 50 mins.

The last 20 minutes of a game are where we haven't scored, but conceded a fair few.

Worth looking at.

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=j

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, spudski said:

Here's a really good table showing how many goals are scored and conceded in 10 minute segments. For all Championship Clubs.

It's interesting this season...as weve scored 3 in the first ten minutes, but also conceded 2. However...we haven't conceded a goal from 10 mins to 50 mins.

The last 20 minutes of a game are where we haven't scored, but conceded a fair few.

Worth looking at.

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=j

That was the point I made yesterday.  All the focus on OTIB and twitter on goals conceded late, but little / none on goals conceded early, or the fact we haven’t scored in the final 15 either.

But it really is too early in the season to drawing firm conclusions to 10-15 minute segments of matches.

[spudski]

7 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That was the point I made yesterday.  All the focus on OTIB and twitter on goals conceded late, but little / none on goals conceded early, or the fact we haven’t scored in the final 15 either.

But it really is too early in the season to drawing firm conclusions to 10-15 minute segments of matches.

Granted...but only 2 goals conceded in the first 10 mins. Nothing conceded between 10 and 60th minute. Then we've conceded 7 after that. So it's noticeable.