Conway out for unknown period

[Bazooka Joe]

41 minutes ago, Super said:

Might be another chance for Martin.

Conway with both legs in plaster would be a better option than Martin.

[Bazooka Joe]

31 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The big dilemma for OTIB:

- is playing Naismith as a winger a case of square peg in round hole

(obviously ignoring the fact that most if his career was as a wide man)

His girth now is less of an issue,

Fat Check True.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Bazooka Joe

[Johnny Musicworks]

4 at the back then Naismith on the left and Sykes on the right and we could have the new Tinman/Murray combination. 

[Bazooka Joe]

Anyone notice that only our better players seem to get injured?

Given that we were never likely to advance far in the FA Cup, was this worth the risk?

[David Brent]

2 minutes ago, Bazooka Joe said:

Anyone notice that only our better players seem to get injured?

Given that we were never likely to advance far in the FA Cup, was this worth the risk?

The cup game wasn’t so much about progress but momentum. 

No issue with the team selected.

[BLRed]

Man City recalling Delap to be re-loaned to the championship. Wonder if we’ve enquired?

[BCFCGav]

Bloody FA Cup. Shoulda fielded S82.

Team against Birmingham will be so interesting. There was already the potential switch from 532 to 433 or 4231 even. Now Weimann whose started so much over the last two years and Conway whose been well involved this season are absent, it's anybody's guess how we'll look.

Maybe a 433 of O'Leary; Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring; Scott, James, Williams; Semenyo, Wells, Naismith.

Moving Naismith to his old LW position means we can sacrifice him from his CB role to allow for 2 rather than 3, but not lose him from the pitch altogether? 

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by BCFCGav

[1960maaan]

3 minutes ago, BCFCGav said:

Bloody FA Cup. Shoulda fielded S82.

Team against Birmingham will be so interesting. There was already the potential switch from 532 to 433 or 4231 even. Now Weimann whose started so much over the last two years and Conway whose been well involved this season are absent, it's anybody's guess how we'll look.

Maybe a 433 of O'Leary; Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring; Scott, James, Williams; Semenyo, Wells, Naismith.

Moving Naismith to his old LW position means we can sacrifice him from his CB role to allow for 2 rather than 3, but not lose him from the pitch altogether? 

 

I don't think we need to change too much to start, sticking to the usual is possible.

                           OLeary.
            Vyner - Atkinson - Naismith 
Sykes/Tanner  -  James - Williams - Pring
                        - Scott -
                Semenyo - Wells

Could easily switch to a 4-3-3 if needed . Very lightweight bench though. 

[cidered abroad]

I'm assuming that if Martin is not included even on the bench, that it's because his next game could trigger a big lump sum.

[daored]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

But what if we replaced him with someone who scored 8 goals?

That’s impossible to know.

That’s the gamble , but right now Semenyo knows how we play, played upfront with Wells before. Big risk to now sell Semenyo and bring someone completely new into the team , club and possibly relocate , with weinmann and Conway injured would have to have an immediate impact 

[Chivs]

1 hour ago, Malago said:

Opportunity knocks for Sam Bell.

I hope opportunity doesn't knock too hard as he will fall over.

Unbelievable the amount of times he falls over.  Really comes across as a boy in a man's game.

[M.D]

21 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

I'm assuming that if Martin is not included even on the bench, that it's because his next game could trigger a big lump sum.

I don't see why it would cost us as he was signed on a free after Derby released him?

[Davefevs]

34 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

I'm assuming that if Martin is not included even on the bench, that it's because his next game could trigger a big lump sum.

There was no mention when he exercised his own option last season that there was a further trigger this season…but that’s not to say there isn’t / wasn’t!  From looking at the timing last season, it would seem to have been around the 30 appearance mark.

As it stands he’s made 19 apps (5+14), so if it’s on round numbers, then he’s very close to 20.  My gut feel is that 20 is too low.  But I know nothing.

13 minutes ago, M.D said:

I don't see why it would cost us as he was signed on a free after Derby released him?

As above…it could be the trigger of another year (not a payment to Derby).

[M.D]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

As above…it could be the trigger of another year (not a payment to Derby).

That would make far more sense 

[forbespm]

2 hours ago, spudski said:

Listening to the interview with NP he mentions changing formation. Also Sykes as a wide player and for some reason mentions Naismith started as a winger. 

I'm fearing some odd positional choices against Brum.

Remember Sam bell at right back last season,very odd

[megansdad]

perhaps Kalas comes into the equation and Naismith moves into midfield with Scott playing further forward?

[spudski]

Too many replies to answer at this moment unfortunately, but appreciate the replies. 

Either way, I think we may see some ' odd' positioning against Brum.

I have a gut feeling we may go 4312

Max 

Tanner, Vyner, Atkinson, Pring 

Sykes, James, Naismith 

Scott 

Semenyo Wells 

Or replace Tanner, with Vyner, and NP will stick King at CB

 

 

 

 

[pongo88]

2 hours ago, Johnny Musicworks said:

4 at the back then Naismith on the left and Sykes on the right and we could have the new Tinman/Murray combination. 

It might be a new Tinnion / Murray combination. On the other hand it could be a new Laurel and Hardy combination. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, BLRed said:

Man City recalling Delap to be re-loaned to the championship. Wonder if we’ve enquired?

Depends on what sort of deal they want, or what sort of subsidy they would be offering I suspect.

Besides why would they recall from Stoke only to loan him to another lower midtable Championship club.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

Can't we have some patience and wait for the diagnosis and prognosis. It could be bad but equally may not be as bad as we fear. Bell may yet rise to the occasion, or even Palmer-Houlden. 

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

3 hours ago, daored said:

The cost of relegation will be greater than £15million - currently our strike options are limited

The additional TV rights for Championship is about £3million more than L1. Season tickets sales will drop but if by , let's say as much as 5000 less, is about £2.5 million. 

Please explain to me and the rest of us where your figure "OF GREATER THAN £15 MILLION" COMES FROM?????

You have stated it's more than £15 million for relegation- so please quote how this is the case.

[Curr Avon]

3 hours ago, GrahamC said:

But what if we replaced him with someone who scored 8 goals?

 

Can I use my 'Phone a friend'?

[daored]

1 hour ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

The additional TV rights for Championship is about £3million more than L1. Season tickets sales will drop but if by , let's say as much as 5000 less, is about £2.5 million. 

Please explain to me and the rest of us where your figure "OF GREATER THAN £15 MILLION" COMES FROM?????

You have stated it's more than £15 million for relegation- so please quote how this is the case.

Ok so for the me the cost of relegation, we will see crowds reduce from .20k for home games both from a home support and away support. We will see some teams with decent away followings but on the whole a reduction in crowds will have a knock on effect to match day revenue. 
I’m sure pay on the day numbers would also reduce , and for a lower level of football you’d expect the cost of the match day ticket / season ticket to reduce from their current prices. 
Not sure on our players whether we’d have a clause in contracts to reduce salaries. 
In answer to your question I and many don’t know what the true cost of relegation would be . The Sheffield Wednesday Trust estimated the cost of relegation between £10 million and £12 million , so I’m basing my estimate on those plus as we know no guarantee of achieving promotion immediately either 

 

In the Championship Wednesday receive around £8m in broadcast income (before the Covid-19 rebate to broadcasters). That falls all the way down to around £2m in League One.

On top of that attendances are also likely to fall, meaning a drop in match day revenue even before accounting for effects of the pandemic currently, in the immediate future and in the longer term. When were last relegated in 2010 average attendances dropped by more than 20%, from 23,000 to 18,000:

When Sunderland went down in 2019 their attendances increased - but they also reduced tickets by around 15% - and their matchday income increased too, in part due to more home matches and two Wembley appearances in their first season in League 1.

Sunderland’s first season down in League 1 is a poor proxy for Wednesday, though: Their attendances are significantly higher than ours and they had the comfort blanket of Parachute Payments to draw on in licking their wounds in that first season in League 1 in 2018/19. Football finance expert @SwissRamble on Twitter estimates revenue of £19m for Sunderland in the current season.

Wednesday’s revenue isn’t likely to be that high in League 1, but instead around £14m***. We’d be allowed to spend around £10m (75% of revenue) of that under the SCMP financial regulations mentioned before. It’s worth noting that the 23-man skeleton squad shown above had wage costs of £12m, so they would be £2m too high.

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by daored

[Out of his pie crust]

I liked Naismith in the holding midfield role, gives him a chance to use his passing with a bit of cover behind. 4-2-3-1 for me:

              MOL

Tanner Vyner Atkinson Pring

          James  Naismith 

    Sykes   Scott  semenyo

               Wells

[phantom]

6 hours ago, Dan Robin said:

I guess he's not ready for regular Championship football yet. If Martin is set to leave and Nigel doesn't want to use Weimann as a pure striker, we'll need a loan striker as reserve (Semenyo + Wells + ?).

But who would have thought Conway would have played so well? 

Stranger things happen in sport 

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

2 hours ago, daored said:

Ok so for the me the cost of relegation, we will see crowds reduce from .20k for home games both from a home support and away support. We will see some teams with decent away followings but on the whole a reduction in crowds will have a knock on effect to match day revenue. 
I’m sure pay on the day numbers would also reduce , and for a lower level of football you’d expect the cost of the match day ticket / season ticket to reduce from their current prices. 
Not sure on our players whether we’d have a clause in contracts to reduce salaries. 
In answer to your question I and many don’t know what the true cost of relegation would be . The Sheffield Wednesday Trust estimated the cost of relegation between £10 million and £12 million , so I’m basing my estimate on those plus as we know no guarantee of achieving promotion immediately either 

 

In the Championship Wednesday receive around £8m in broadcast income (before the Covid-19 rebate to broadcasters). That falls all the way down to around £2m in League One.

On top of that attendances are also likely to fall, meaning a drop in match day revenue even before accounting for effects of the pandemic currently, in the immediate future and in the longer term. When were last relegated in 2010 average attendances dropped by more than 20%, from 23,000 to 18,000:

When Sunderland went down in 2019 their attendances increased - but they also reduced tickets by around 15% - and their matchday income increased too, in part due to more home matches and two Wembley appearances in their first season in League 1.

Sunderland’s first season down in League 1 is a poor proxy for Wednesday, though: Their attendances are significantly higher than ours and they had the comfort blanket of Parachute Payments to draw on in licking their wounds in that first season in League 1 in 2018/19. Football finance expert @SwissRamble on Twitter estimates revenue of £19m for Sunderland in the current season.

Wednesday’s revenue isn’t likely to be that high in League 1, but instead around £14m***. We’d be allowed to spend around £10m (75% of revenue) of that under the SCMP financial regulations mentioned before. It’s worth noting that the 23-man skeleton squad shown above had wage costs of £12m, so they would be £2m too high.

 

Ok - so please confirm your quote and source. Wednesday received tv rights of £8 million ?????????? 

Just check any info and the actual figure is £2.5 million for Champ tv rights.

BCFC get 20,000  in the ground at the very very best. Freebies, kids, subsidies etc make it  less income than an obvious calculation of 20,000 x£ 40 but in actual fact if BCFC are top of L1 then we'll make more income than being bottom (ish) of the Championship. Whatever our league , if we have momentum then the fans will attend- however plastic. WE have about 12000 ST's and would maybe lose at the very worst 5000 if relegated . The rest is dependent on how we play and whether we are chasing promotion.

Quoting SwissTony about Sunderland on twitter is utter nonsense. In any case- if Sunderland do well then 40,000 fans turn up. At BS3 we've never had more than 25000 in the new stadium.

You have stated that relegation will cost our club more than £15 million yet have failed to come anywhere near close to this figure when pressed. 

Relegation will cost us but nowhere near your fantasy figures.

[daored]

18 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

Ok - so please confirm your quote and source. Wednesday received tv rights of £8 million ?????????? 

Just check any info and the actual figure is £2.5 million for Champ tv rights.

BCFC get 20,000  in the ground at the very very best. Freebies, kids, subsidies etc make it  less income than an obvious calculation of 20,000 x£ 40 but in actual fact if BCFC are top of L1 then we'll make more income than being bottom (ish) of the Championship. Whatever our league , if we have momentum then the fans will attend- however plastic. WE have about 12000 ST's and would maybe lose at the very worst 5000 if relegated . The rest is dependent on how we play and whether we are chasing promotion.

Quoting SwissTony about Sunderland on twitter is utter nonsense. In any case- if Sunderland do well then 40,000 fans turn up. At BS3 we've never had more than 25000 in the new stadium.

You have stated that relegation will cost our club more than £15 million yet have failed to come anywhere near close to this figure when pressed. 

Relegation will cost us but nowhere near your fantasy figures.

You asked me to quantify the figure and provided from Sheffield Wednesday Trust , a club recently relegated from the championship. The figures they quoted were £12 million so not a million miles from the amount I stated which was based on a posters valuation of Semenyo. I do agree with you about momentum and if successful on the pitch crowds will increase. 
 

I’m not sure who ‘Swiss Tony’ is by the way. 

Appreciate you don’t agree with what I’ve posted but I’ve given an explanation and a source to those figures. Ultimately neither you, I or anyone on this forum would know the true cost of relegation until the club publishes it’s accounts and in many ways is purely guess work on anyone’s behalf

Edited January 11, 2023 by daored

[Cityboy1954]

9 hours ago, Malago said:

Opportunity knocks for Sam Bell.

In my opinion nowhere near ready little boy lost would rather he tried palmer-holden .

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Cityboy1954

[Davefevs]

Just to add in my 2p re lost revenues, need to be mindful that tv rights are split into two main brackets:

• football league pool - circa £3.5m (the EFL TV Deal)
• solidarity payments - circa £4.5m (from the PL TV Deal)

Lg1 clubs get around £3m

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

11 hours ago, daored said:

You asked me to quantify the figure and provided from Sheffield Wednesday Trust , a club recently relegated from the championship. The figures they quoted were £12 million so not a million miles from the amount I stated which was based on a posters valuation of Semenyo. I do agree with you about momentum and if successful on the pitch crowds will increase. 
 

I’m not sure who ‘Swiss Tony’ is by the way. 

Appreciate you don’t agree with what I’ve posted but I’ve given an explanation and a source to those figures. Ultimately neither you, I or anyone on this forum would know the true cost of relegation until the club publishes it’s accounts and in many ways is purely guess work on anyone’s behalf

It's not quite guesswork though.

TV rights are set at £2.5m per Champ club (+ up to £100k per televised home game). The EFL pay £4.5m to Championship which reduces to roughly £1.4  million in L1.

The cost of relegation is therefore in hard cash Day 1 about £5.5 million  which is £10million less than you state.

Then there's the loss of merchandising and ticket sales but this will depend entirely on performance on the field. You quote Sheffield Wednesday as an example and they have averaged more fans at home (24,000) in L1 as a winning than when a losing team in the Championship( 21,000). So BCFC will certainly have a reduced ST income but even then with some shiny new Manager and new team - who knows? It's fact that if we play attractive football AND win then people will be scrabbling for tickets, memberships etc. Whilst I agree that some guesswork is involved, I still want you to explain how " the cost of relegation will be more than £15million" when fixed payments lost will be circa £5.5 million. 

What is more is that players wages will fall and most salaries will reflect our standing as a 'third division' club -AGAIN. This will lead to smaller operating costs.

Best answer is for SL and Nige to get us out of the relegation fight they are both responsible for .Nige on the pitch and SL off it.